To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many

[feellikeahugefailure]

The BoE and other banks say this as if it is universally bad news. If it stops the vast amount of foreign speculation on UK property then many will see it as a good thing.

Even if you own your own home, its paper gains unless you sell it. So even homeowners might want prices to fall as otherwise their children may never own a home.

Springing If we lose our steel-making capability over some EU red-tape that we have tied our hands we will be the first major economy in the world to have no way of making steel.

I heard a very eloquent caller to LBC saying that we have given away virtually all of our manufacturing capabilities despite having very talented steel workers and shipbuilders in UK. A country that does not produce anything is not a country, but a Province. We are now a province of Europe. The final loss of sovereignty will be to give up our currency. Only cowards and punks do that.

To Stay in EU or to Leave?
Similar to the decision one makes when deciding to go it alone as self-employed or staying as a PAYE employee. The latter is the safer option, but annual pay increases may be suspended or you may be made redundant. With 'self-employed', you need to advertise & sell yourself, create the structure you want for your business and try to carry it through.

Cut... We haven't given up our production of these things to the EU we have given them up because of our adherence to the economics of the right wing.

Strangely brexiters all seem to be royalists as well, which is odd seing as the Queen is decsended from German's. Ah the confused politics of the right, you are all in a proper muddle aren't you.

lurked Yes Norway and Switzerland have to pay a fee for trading with the EU. If Britain does leave EU, it is vital that a new trade agreement is drawn up by our most civil servant which does not force us to accept the same terms as these two countries.

There must be a reason why both these countries decided not to join the EU, ditto Finland. There presumably are advantages for them to remain outside EU but pay only a trading fee. I will try to research these pros, because these 3 countries are not known for their impetuosity and I do not think they declined just to keep their currencies.

It is the Regressive Left which has fucked up this country. They are in every political party strangely enough. The aim is to change the role of GB to that of a rent boy.

There are wurst things than being German, sweeping generalisations being one.

We will not be dictating terms to the EU, they will have the better hand, we've got probably as good a deal as we are going to get at the moment, coming out puts us at a weakness. As previously stated WE need the EU more than it needs us.

Norway declined because its population voted no, twice. Not for any strategic or economic reason, but Norway also had nationalised oil so it benefited, our oil profits cut taxes for the rich we as a country didn't benefit half as much as we could have. Switzerland chose to maintain its historic neatrality. Finland in fact is in the EU.

Your regressive left comment... made me chuckle, how do you not chafe those knuckles?

Oh and I don't see why Brexit would cause a fall in demand for housing in London, half of the foreign demand for property comes from non-EU countries anyway. London is effectively a tax haven for foreign investors, why would it be more difficult for Greek or German people to invest that Kuwaiti, Thai or Chinese investors?

Lurked. You talk as if you know something but you dont. I'm puzzled ....... how on earth do you find your way home every day? Probably by attaching a rope from the door knocker to your wrist.

YANBU.

We're a couple in professional jobs on decent wages and are saving up, but we have no hope of ever saving up fast enough to be able to buy where we live (London - we have no option but to live here for work reasons). Our tiny one bed, one bath, one kitchen/diner (i.e. grand total of 3 rooms) flat is apparently worth £400k, and we'd need to put down a £150k deposit to get a mortgage payment we could afford - and that's before any price rises which occur during the time it takes us to save up (8% per year, apparently, in our neck of the woods). Fat fucking chance we'll ever scrape enough together.

At the moment, the only hope we will ever have of getting on the housing ladder is our parents dying.

It's a good job I'm not overly maternal, because it's unlikely that we will ever be able to afford to buy before my fertility runs out (we're in our mid 20s). I'd never bring a child into a situation where I couldn't guarantee them some level of stability - renting has meant that I have had up to four houses in a seven month period, which simply isn't fair on a child.

You are so, so, not being unreasonable to think that there would be a silver lining to a house price crash.

Using ad homs means you can't counter the argument, cut, tsk tsk. Where is your counter argument?

I'm fairly confident in my analysis of the situation Cut, you're the one who just seems to repeat stuff you've heard from a ranty taxi driver on LBC.

Rightsaid... have you thought of changing area in London? Younger freinds of mine thought they were in the same situation as you, but they went further out and managed to get on the ladder. They also made a really big lifestyle change for a year and shared a house with others, this cut their outgoings and meant that they could afford the deposit.

Lurked

You are really doing yourself no favours by proving your superior intellect by calling anyone that disagrees with you knuckle draggers.

Its all very Tony Blair and unbecoming.

To be fair that insult was supposed to be more funny than offensive. But I've I said I've not met a brexiter whose main issue wasn't immigration or a complete misunderstanding of how trading with the EU works. I've not yet had a discussion which involves a serious economic analysis of how things would work with an exit vote. I've read plenty of convincing evidence and got my own analysis of how things would go wrong.

No one has yet managed to counter the fact that we would be seriously weakened by an exit vote, the EU has the stronger negotiating point. Look at all the firms (HSBC and JP Morgan to name two) who would leave the UK if we exit the EU. Look at who is backing the business campaign for Brexit the cheif of whom seems to be Tim Martin of Wetherspoons.

Strangely brexiters all seem to be royalists as well, which is odd seing as the Queen is decsended from German's. Ah the confused politics of the right, you are all in a proper muddle aren't you

Urgh I don't know why anyone is bothering engaging.

I think its true though Bud, right wing politics is filled with double think, say one thing yet mean another all the way through. Cut the deficit, but increase the debt, "hard work pays" yet we cut inheritence tax which stifles meritocracy, " We're all in it together" except if you are wealthy or a corporation...

Masters of doublethink.

You also think brexiters are knuckle draggers and royalists, ergo - I don't care much what you think.

Oh deary me, someone doesn't have their sense of humour gage on today do they?

You still haven't counterted the argument for staying in though, except for the "we will renegotiate" guff.

If Britain does leave EU, it is vital that a new trade agreement is drawn up by our most civil servant which does not force us to accept the same terms as these two countries.

I sincerely hope the only role the Civil Service has is booking the meeting rooms and arranging the tea. I want top notch corporate lawyers from the Magic Circle , top economists negotiating our BREXIT under the watchful eye of a Eurosceptic PM ( not Cameron).

I say this from the experience of having watched how big corporations steam roller the average Civil Service commercial officer

I sincerely hope the only role the Civil Service has is booking the meeting rooms and arranging the tea. I want top notch corporate lawyers from the Magic Circle , top economists negotiating our BREXIT under the watchful eye of a Eurosceptic PM ( not Cameron)

"big corporations steam roller the average Civil Service commercial officer"

Isn't that usually because there is a highly paid job in it later for the Civil service person? If you look at a lot of civil service that deal with tax, commercial dealings etc there seem to be an awful lot who go on to work as highly paid advisors later on.

Lurked

I disagree with the statement 'We get more out if the EU than it gets out of us' on so many levels, from the simplistic, we get less back than we pay in in fees to the more esoteric loss of sovereignty.

I went to a lecture given by the ambassador of a firmer Eastern European, now EU member country ( think plumbers ). I went because I wanted to hear why he thought the UK should stay in the EU.

I learnt that his country values the UK's membership as it provides a balance between Northern European and Southern European economies. That the UK in the EU,provides a link between his country and the U.S. and our Commonwealth. I learnt that his country values the protection that countries like the UK and France give , following their history of hostile neighbour's and the fact that his country is bordered by some still dubious neighbours. I learnt that his citizens welcomed the opportunities to go to work in the UK and the benefits they received assisted his country's economy.

This was all really good stuff - for Poland

So we asked him about wages a British ire son could hope to earn on the local economy in his country should any if us wish to move there. The answer was, much less than we would earn in a similar job in the UK. We asked about healthcare in his country. They pay for their healthcare and were only now considering introducing free prescriptions for the over 65s.

Now I gave no doubt that people from his country are contributing to the overall success of the UK. But I also see many of his countrymen in very low paid jobs that can it possibly mean they are making a net contribution to the UK economy.

Meanwhile the 220,000 migrants from the EU who came to the UK last year ( a city the size of around Newcastle), together with the migrants from previous years and those who will also come in future years need housing, jobs, schools, hospitals and the infrastructure for every day living. Which is fine - if we are actually building a brand new major city each year - but we aren't.

So the pressure of so many EU migrants to the UK demanding housing us pushing up accommodation costs - in both bought and rented sectors. Reduce the amount of migration from the EU and the demand for housing reduces. Reduced demand = reduced prices. That's simple economics.

However that does not necessarily mean that current house prices will fall. There is no surplus and I wouldn't expect any EU migrants who are already here to go back to their original countries if we Brexited. All it would do us slip it stop the inevitable upwards spiral.

I know some 20 something professional couples, in good jobs working in a major city and unable to afford more than a bedroom in a shared house. How will those couples ever afford to raise a family in the climate of ever scarcer ever costlier holding while their wages are depressed continually by the competition from equally as well educated EU migrant competitors?

So, no, I don't think we actually do get more from the EU than we contribute to it.

Isn't that usually because there is a highly paid job in it later for the Civil service person? If you look at a lot of civil service that deal with tax, commercial dealings etc there seem to be an awful lot who go on to work as highly paid advisors later on

Alas no. I gave seen the corporate lawyers for major international telecoms providers run circles around the CS commercial officer with his 5 GCSEs and a minor qualification in commercial law obtained through day release at the local Further Education college. Far too many of our public sector contracts are negotiated by people with little to know commercial expertise.

The CS who get the top tokes in industry are already at the top if the CS tree. They wouldn't dully themselves in something like commercial negotiations. They have very junior staff for that.

Springing..A long term study by UCL recently found that immigrants from the EU contribute 20 billion more than they have taken out of the UK, and that lowering the number that are here would do more harm than good because the decreased tax take would not be matched by a decrease in demand on services. There have been one or two more minor studies that back this one up. So the data proves we get more from immigration than is taken out.

Also in terms of " paying in" to the EU, it works out using last year's figures that the UK net payment to the EU was £8.5 billion. Norway, a much smaller economy an outside the EU pays about £500 million to £1 bn per year for its access to the EU but gets no role in decision making, yet must accept freedom of movement and all other EU regualtions in order to be able to do this.

45 % of our exports go to the EU which would not be as a high if the UK wasn't part of it, effecting UK jobs so we benefit there. Our station as a major financial link between the US and the EU may be under threat too (which is why JP Morgan et al would move)

On housing, well, the only real place in the UK with a housing crisis in the South East really isn't it. But even in London it is doable, I really don't know of any other city in the country where a couple with good jobs can't get on the ladder and even in London if you are prepared to cut your cloth it is possible.

Also back to a question I posed earlier, why would leaving the EU cause London prices to drop, half of the demand for houses for foreign buyers is from outside the EU and there are little to no restrictions stopping them, why would it stop demand from EU countries?

Springing..A long term study by UCL recently found that immigrants from the EU contribute 20 billion more than they have taken out of the UK, and that lowering the number that are here would do more harm than good because the decreased tax take would not be matched by a decrease in demand on services. There have been one or two more minor studies that back this one up. So the data proves we get more from immigration than is taken out.

You quote me UCL ( which receives EU subsidies), I quote you something that contradicts it. Both equally as pointless.
You pay the researcher you get what you paid for.

Let's use our own common sense. Please explain how an EU migrant on minimum wage with a wife working part time on. Minimum wage and 2 school age children living in a major southern city are net contributors to the UK economy. Please include in your workings, family credit, family allowance, local housing allowance if they qualify, free school meals, if the qualify, cost of 2 x school places at an average national cost if £4',500 per pupil and free healthcare. I think you'll find that the UK Govt is actually subsidising them to be here.

And to further contradict the UCL you may not be aware that the number of NI numbers issued to EU citizens far exceeds the number of EU migrants that the Government claims have come to the UK. The Govt are refusing to explain why as they claim it could influence the EU referendum.

Also in terms of " paying in" to the EU, it works out using last year's figures that the UK net payment to the EU was £8.5 billion. Norway, a much smaller economy an outside the EU pays about £500 million to £1 bn per year for its access to the EU but gets no role in decision making, yet must accept freedom of movement and all other EU regualtions in order to be able to do this.

Nope. I am not planning to be Norway Mark 2. And paying to access the single market. I am planning a new deal for Britain without having to accept free movement of people that enables 500 million EU citizens to live in the UK. You know, the sort of trade deal that America has with Mexico that doesn't give the entire Mexican population the right to settle in the U.S.

45 % of our exports go to the EU which would not be as a high if the UK wasn't part of it, effecting UK jobs so we benefit there.

Disagree. Trade doesn't stop. millions of EU jobs depend on the UK consuming their products so rest assure, they will continue to trade with us and us with them.

Our station as a major financial link between the US and the EU may be under threat too (which is why JP Morgan et al would move)

Rubbish. They positively love the fact that they have UK offices outside the turmoil of the Eurozone. Goldman Sachs SI not funding the REMAIN campaign out of the goodness of its socialist heart. It's doing so because the EU is good for big corporations and bad for the average worker. Their lobbyists can shape EU laws to suit them. They don't have to be constructed by one Government when they can deal with an unelected, undemocratic EU. The EU is not pink and fluffy

On housing, well, the only real place in the UK with a housing crisis in the South East really isn't it.

Don't understand this sentence. Are you saying that only the South East has a housing crisis? If so Lol.

But even in London it is doable, I really don't know of any other city in the country where a couple with good jobs can't get on the ladder and even in London if you are prepared to cut your cloth it is possible.

Plaese show the accommodation available in the city of London to a couple with good jobs ( noting that this couple may one day breed).

Also back to a question I posed earlier, why would leaving the EU cause London prices to drop, half of the demand for houses for foreign buyers is from outside the EU and there are little to no restrictions stopping them, why would it stop demand from EU countries?

Beacuse there are thousands of EU citizens living in London at present. Many will naturally move on to other EU countries or return home at some future point. They would not automatically be replaced by more EU migrants. We would be run inning an immigration policy that invited people from all over the world to bring their skills to the UK. Skills are needed in more cities than just London. At the moment migration from the EU is self-selecting, whether we need those skills or not. I would suggest that London doesn't need another Bulgarian Big Issue seller or car washer who is having their expensive London accommodation subsidised by the UK tax payer - no matter how productive the UCL thinks they are

Oh and I don't see why Brexit would cause a fall in demand for housing in London, half of the foreign demand for property comes from non-EU countries anyway. London is effectively a tax haven for foreign investors, why would it be more difficult for Greek or German people to invest that Kuwaiti, Thai or Chinese investors?

The way I understand it is that if we brexit, there is a possibility that the government spends time focus energy and cash on brexiting, not on dealing with sorting the economy out and generally running the country. There is a risk as a non-EU city it's harder for banks to do business from London. The financial sector (which underpins london's wealth) will slow down, and the flow of people able to buy the £500k-£1m flats/houses also slows.

Tbe chknese and Russian super prime is impacted only by the fortunes of those originated counties.