To think saying house prices could crash if we brexit will be a plus for many

[feellikeahugefailure]

The BoE and other banks say this as if it is universally bad news. If it stops the vast amount of foreign speculation on UK property then many will see it as a good thing.

Even if you own your own home, its paper gains unless you sell it. So even homeowners might want prices to fall as otherwise their children may never own a home.

I'm saying being in the EU merely gives the illusion of certainty.

Can you tell me with certainty what will happen when Turkey becomes a member (which Cameron wants)?

Staying in gives us no more certainty than leaving

I find this a strange conundrum.
People - some of them, think staying "in" is more secure in terms of ...whats going to happen its known.
I think this is the most tumultuous time we have lived in since the last ww.
I don't see us joined to the EU in as a strong thing at all, I see us shackled to a sinking ship.

A ship that is not only sinking ( in terms of trade out put and relevance on the world stage) but a ship that is in a hurricane and is dragging us with it - into the eye of the storm.

Free, I see us able to slide down a quiet safe stream, and take shelter.

Trade: we trade with the EU and us them because of the goods and services we deal in, thats nothing to do with Governments. We want to buy BMW's, we want to buy wine.
The EU is in decline and since 1980 the share of the world output represented by the EU has halved. Its in crisis and yet the rest of the world is surging ahead in many areas.
In terms of Sovereignty, back in the day when we were voting to be part of the "common market" a government leaflet was delivered to everyone in the UK to say " no important new policy can be decided in Brussels or anywhere else without the consent of a British Minister answerable to a British Government and A British Parliament"

We all know this has been eroded. The introduction of qualified majority voting that allowed member states to be over ruled has been extended into more and more areas under successive treaty changes.

This will only get worse and never ever better.
We can certainly look to other countries outside the EU who deal with it, like Norway and so on however - what they do is only a guide. We have our own strengths and can re negotiate a deal on our own terms playing to them.

Buds

Excellent post.

Er no thanks.
And my chidren will be able to afford their own home if they don't waste their money, work hard, and buy somewhere within their means. Like I had to. Like my parents did. Like their parents did etc etc.

Yanbu

I agree and am a homeowner with significant equity

House prices are too high and unfair. I want people to be able to afford a home. Not just my own kids and family but everyone.

Buds
I think this is the most tumultuous time we have lived in since the last ww.
I don't see us joined to the EU in as a strong thing at all, I see us shackled to a sinking ship.
Spot on.

In dangerous times it is even more important that you have regained the right to make your own laws.

If we lose our steel-making capability over some EU red-tape that we have tied our hands we will be the first major economy in the world to have no way of making steel. That fills me with dread.

Greece gave up her currency and is now at the mercy of the EU (Germany and the ECB)

If the UK has to buy in its steel we are at the mercy of the EU and the tariffs it decides to set on our imports. And we'd better pray hard for peace because we couldn't defend ourselves without steel and we couldn't physically import at time of war.

The EU is determined to run this country down. I just can't understand why Cameron is so intent on helping them do it.

Very well said bud, excellent post highlighting myth that such a thing as "status quo" exists.

Well said jelly - ever increasing mortgage debt is not something I would wish on anyone's children.

Very much an "I'm alright jack" attitude by some looking at the younger generation.

House price inflation isn't to anyone's benefit except speculators.

As a long standing homeowner I suppose I should be in the stay camp.

Interest rates will stay close to zero for the foreseeable future due to the economic failure of the 'utopian dream'. Rich Europeans will continue to bring their cash to the UK as they desert that sinking ship. A mass influx of immigrants will shorten the housing supply at the bottom of the market forcing first time buyers to stretch themselves further resulting in a ripple effect upwards.

But I'm really not that selfish. How much paper equity do I need?

Nobody is arguing that house price inflation is a good thing.

Just that a house price crash of the level that would be required to enable houses to become affordable would involve general economic chaos that wouldn't benefit people on low to average incomes trying to buy a house.

On the other hand people who have already benefitted from house price inflation and have paid off a fair amount of their mortgage would be able to ride it out (as with previous property crashes). People who don't rely on finance because they have plenty of money could benefit from buying at the bottom of the market.

It is pretty certain that at some point in the future there will be a property crash because nothing goes on for ever. However it is not possible to predict that it would be caused by leaving Europe, or even if leaving Europe did cause prices to fall, when the bottom of the market would be reached. Not a problem if you are a speculator - that is the nature of the game. A bit more of a problem if you are trying to buy your home.

The latest Guardian/Observer poll gives Leave a 4% lead. Large amount of undecideds though.

And my chidren will be able to afford their own home if they don't waste their money, work hard, and buy somewhere within their means. Like I had to. Like my parents did. Like their parents did etc etc.

You're totally missing tho point, are you even slightly financially literate? There is a disconnect between salaries and house prices, which Ido my going to get larger.

This article explains it in a very user friendly and fun way:
www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2462753/How-items-cost-risen-line-house-prices.html

Leaving the away might slow down London house prices (where it's a 'global' market) but I can't see there being much of a change elsewhere in the regions. Unless much tighter lending rules come into play.

In your typical regional town, prices are much more a function of supply and demand. Foreign buy-to-leave investors and the foreign super prime buyers are not propping up the market.

Super prime has really chocked off in london. Prime is slowing. The £500k to £1m segment is still spiralling crazily out of control. That is the price bracket where two people working in the city can deposit and mortgage up. That needs a recession to slow down to slow the pay and bonuses and harm job security (to have an impact on job security) and no one is hoping for that, surely.

For me, what is much more of a problem is that the flats that are being built are absolutely tiny. You can't have a couple living in a two bed two bath open plan livingn/kitchen flat of 600sq feet for the long term. The 2nd bathroom is pointless and takes up valuable space. There is no room for storage. No room for having a kid.

But small flats keep the prices a bit lower and the profit high for developers. So thay are only going to get smaller.

I think those of you who are hoping for and saying that a crash will enable more first time buyers to buy a home are greatly misguided....

To start with, banks won't lend to as many - it's already getting harder to get a mortgage.

But the big worry for those who are wanting to buy the houses that will supposedly become cheaper, shouldn't be that,it shouldn't even be that there will be a lack of houses as people won't be able to afford to move up the ladder due to negative equity, it should actually be the investors and the buy to let folk - just like last time - those with very full pockets who can often just sweep in and pay cash! The people who do this for a living. The people who don't have to wait 2-3 months to get a mortgage. The people who can do a quick sale. The people who CAN offer a couple of grand more than you because they aren't reliant on a mortgage.

there will be a lack of houses as people won't be able to afford to move up the ladder due to negative equity

Since the end of 100% mortgages after the 2008 crisis, most people wil not be in negative equity if prices drop 5% or 10% n

Buds that was a decent post but you are confused about lots of things..

You know Norway and Switzerland have to pay into the E.U abide by the regulations that the E.U set to trade there, but have no say at all in what those regulations are or what laws are set? That isn't a great position to be in

Also your comment regarding EU % of world output declining is correct, but not when you realise that EU output has risen and the fact that world output has increased dramatically since the 1980s with the rise of the BRICS countries. Essentially the slice of the pie is still large, but the pie got larger.

Out voters basically do so on a base of xenephobic and ill held beliefs.

Kind of missing my point whois.....

If it only drops 5%, great! Most people will be totally fine. However If in some areas 25% is wiped off its a totally different story.

My point was, Cheap houses will always get snapped up by investors.

Lurked

Are you really going with the the majority of Brexit voters are xenophobic argument?

You do realise that a) it is nonsense and b) sweeping generalisations like that have a habit of back firing - as we have seen a couple of times recently.

I think the Stay voters say it to give themselves a feeling of moral superiority.

Oh I do, don't you worry.

Especially as I said that your leaders are Boris, IDS and Gove, I feel vindicated in every way. When the economic planning seems to be we come out and then renegotiate our trade deals, when the vast majority of our trade is with Europe.

When all the evidence points to the fact that it would be a total economic disaster, as suggested by the BOE and most think tanks and business groups? Even think tanks that I usually don't agree with?

So when MOST of the people that argue for Brexit ( the real ones in the pub and in the street) blame immigration but don't have any idea about the economic benefits of EU immigration, yeah I do blame xenephobia.

When the MAIN argument of being out is: " We want to control our own laws" and then use Norway and Switzerland as examples who have to use EU regulations and laws, standards etc in order to be able to trade, yeah I do think its fundamentally flawed and the supporters are knuckle draggin mouth breathing muppets.

and then use Norway and Switzerland as examples who have to use EU regulations and laws, standards etc in order to be able to trade, yeah I do think its fundamentally flawed and the supporters are knuckle draggin mouth breathing muppets Oh dear!

Just to be clear, Idid not use Norway and Switzerland as examples, I said:

"We can certainly look to other countries outside the EU who deal with it, like Norway and so on however - what they do is only a guide. We have our own strengths and can re negotiate a deal on our own terms playing to them"

You said "You know Norway and Switzerland have to pay into the E.U abide by the regulations that the E.U set to trade there, but have no say at all in what those regulations are or what laws are set? That isn't a great position to be in"

Knuckle dragging mouth breathing Muppet.

Lol. I have been called manyany things on here but at least that is original.

Thanks for proving my point for me.

No but Gove, Boris and IDS do!

Lets also think, Cameron worked hard to negotiate us a deal (as much as I don't like him) he got what the EU were willing to offer. We need them more than they need us, 16% of EU exports comes to the UK ( if we were counted as outside partners) 45% of UK exports go to the EU. If we want to continue doing that they are in a much better position for negotiation than we are.

No problem helpful, it was good fun writing it.

Hamiltoes ---- I did exactly that at 20 years old with a 3 yo and 5 months pregnant. I'm 23 now. I was out on my arse and the council wouldn't help other than putting us up in a bed and breakfast. My salary was £19k at the time. I had £2500 rainy day savings. Not a hope in hell I was going into private rent, so I begged borrowed and stole a few hundred each from here and there to make a 5% deposit on a 75K 3 bedroomed top floor flat in absolutely the biggest shithole in town.

I salute you but I have a question, which is if the whole building was in dilapidated, how come the mortgage lender approved the loan?