Thank you.
This is where I'm at:
I think if people take an annual term time holiday, then they are at risk of future potential prosecution. That's given, spelled out and there's no doubt that it is a possibility.
But I don't think we can make any claims beyond that. Unless there is some policy or guidance from government which I have not yet seen which states that repeat offenders should have their punishments escalated, then I don't think we are entitled to conclude that it will lead to eventual prosecution.
As you have pointed out, there are many variables and it depends. It will always remain a possibility that people could get prosecuted, but it may also be equally as likely that by taking one holiday a year, parents may just be able to pay the fine each year and continue taking their holidays. We just don't know.
Therefore, I found some of the claims above like:
'"Out of curiosity can you keep having hols each year and paying the fine?
No not* indefinitely. Eventually you would stand a good chance of being prosecuted"
misleading and perhaps a little scaremongering, because actually we don't know there is a good chance it will lead to prosecution. It does all depend.
However, if there is evidence to the contrary, then I am more than happy to have that pointed out, which is why I asked for the evidence / basis of these claims.
I just feel that it would be fairer to say 'we don't know, it is a possibility, but there are no established guidelines as to how / when this would be done at present' rather than intimating something is likely when we do not know that to be true.
However, on the whole I did think most of your posts have been balanced and well reasoned Tiggy. I think you have been quite measured in most of what you have been saying. But on mumsnet as a whole of late, this has been a very emotive topic and there has been a lot of misinformation, scaremongering and sometimes it almost seems like bullying tactics - if you want to take a holiday, then you're a bad mother, irresponsible, don't care about your child's education and so on... Its almost like people are not allowed to ask for the facts to make their own minds up, which I think is a great shame.