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IndyRef 7

999 replies

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 09:33

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OP posts:
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Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 13:51

OOAOML
I'm so sorry to hear that. This whole business must be so stressful for those like you directly in the firing line, and it just adds to any existing pressures.
A friend of my DP is due to move down from Edinburgh as a result of a Yes. He hopes he'll be buying a family house like the one they have in Edinburgh, but if his wife continues to insist that she isn't moving he'll be renting a flat instead. In that case he'll be 400 miles from his children and he thinks it may be the end of his marriage.
So very sad.

BardarbungaBardarbing · 08/09/2014 13:52

Best wishes to you both OOAOML.

I've decide to get off my fence and actually vote no because the whole of the UK will be buggered up by a Yes vote at this point.

I hope a No vote will slow the pace of change and so mean that fewer people's lives are messed about with for ill-judged idealism.

OOAOML · 08/09/2014 13:56

Thanks guys Thanks

Sorry for that sudden soul-bearing, not sure what came over me. But it is out now, and not owning up to it has stopped me feeling I can post on some other threads, so I think it is better out in the open.

Thomyorke · 08/09/2014 13:58

Been lurking and reading, my only interest being my Scottish side of my family. The post about the families and the conflict it has caused is why the polls may not be reliable. I know my nieces and nephews are publicly saying yes but are planning to vote no, they do not want to be the cause of a family split so tried to stay neutral but as it has got closer the pressure to declare has been huge. I could imagine the same family pressure on both sides of the argument.

SDTGisAnEvilWolefGenius · 08/09/2014 13:58

Capital flight has already started. Today, ds1 took the train down to Carlisle to open a bank account in England.

Scottish financial institutions are shaking, at the loss of his overdraft!

weatherall · 08/09/2014 13:59

So this (BBC bias warning Wink) appears to be the weigh watchers story no campaigners are harping on about.

I don't think any sensible person would call this 'privatisation of the NHS'.

OOAOML · 08/09/2014 14:11

Barbara whilst obviously Wink I'm glad you're going to vote No, I'm mainly just glad that you are going to vote, whatever way that might be. I don't like to think of people feeling they can't vote, and I once spent ages in a phone canvassing session talking to an old man who was leaning towards a yes vote but thought he shouldn't because he was old and he felt the decision wasn't his. It is all our decision, and all those who are entitled to vote and want to vote should do so.

OOAOML · 08/09/2014 14:12

Sorry Bardar - my brain is taking over my typing fingers Blush

StatisticallyChallenged · 08/09/2014 14:13

[Grin] stdg

I did a more in depth look at the poll results actually for yougov as I wanted to understand their methodology better. One thing I did spot is that in the process of weighting the responses for lots of other factors they seemed to have ended up seriously under weight in people who didn't vote at the 2011 election.

They polled 1084. In the weighted results they ended up with 115 conservative voters in 2011, 263 lab, 65 lib and 375 snp. Total of 818 out of 1084. They don't state for the smaller parties, but they would account for a few too.
So of the sample once weighted, 75.5% voted in 2011

The 2011 holyrood turnout was only 50%. Plus anyone who is between about 16 and 20-21 wouldn't have been eligible to vote in 2011 which must be a reasonable proportion -maybe 8% at a guess.

It looks like they polled too many people who were already interested in politics at least enough to vote. Be interesting to see what impact that has given we are expecting a massive turnout. Not saying it's one or the other but doesn't make me confident in the results particularly.

BardarbungaBardarbing · 08/09/2014 14:20

I was planning to write a min-essay on abstension on the ballot paper but it's gone beyond vain posturing now!Wink

About Independence at any cost : Thing is you can't knock someone for being idealistic, but they can't expect you to put the same value on their idealism as they do.

Now my idealism runs more to a Star Trek style coalition of nationalities all working together..Grin Who says No voters have no souls..Grin

ChelsyHandy · 08/09/2014 14:31

Was sad to read on my FB feed today a post about how Kate Middleton has deliberately timed her pregnancy to coincide with the Referendum, so as to increase support for the union.

The scary thing was that the poster has a huge number of equally rabid friends, who all posted on this thread similar comments about it being a plot, etc.. Not in a joking way.

OOAMOL and ComtesseDeSpair that sounds incredibly difficult to live with, I can't imagine how I would cope.

Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 14:34

I don't think any sensible person would call this 'privatisation of the NHS'

So where do you draw the line on privatisation then weatherall? At the Scottish border? You really are changing your judgments to suit your fixed ideas.

The NHS has always bought-in or 'privatised' services. They buy in buildings, drugs, beds, dressings. They use outsourced staff for cleaning, catering, temporary nursing staff from agencies. So long as they get value for money and the quality is properly checked that seems OK to me.
It's possible, even likely, that in some areas health authorities may be going too far and that should be resisted, but I suspect that in most cases they are better placed to make that judgement than an SNP idealist.

WildThong · 08/09/2014 14:35

chelsy pathetic conspiracy theorists abound

WildThong · 08/09/2014 14:37

sc you are great - just in case I forget to say it later

Thank you for taking the time to look at these things and explain them in terms that I can understand Flowers

StatisticallyChallenged · 08/09/2014 14:41

Did you see the figures for the other yougov questions... 51% of the weighted results believed the no currency union was a bluff. Not surprised given that in other questions asked 26% thought mi5 was working against independence and 19% think the result will be rigged

ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 14:54

Apparently there is another poll out tonight - I can't remember the pollster but they do face to face rather than internet.

Re the £ falling in value this seems to make sense?

"Tucked away in the Financial Times’ report earlier in the week was the giveaway. “Currency investors” would apparently be “particularly concerned by the UK’s persistent current account deficit if this were no longer offset by North Sea oil revenues.”

" It is not due to Scotland leaving that a “sterling crisis” may threaten. It is due to the UK’s economic problems. Cumulatively, between falling incomes and rising debts, these mean we are already “one shock away from a further crisis.” Whether it was Eurozone stagnation, Scottish independence, or own property bubble collapsing, this is an economy almost designed to fail – at some point, and from some cause.

The City clearly believes Scotland is necessary to prop up the economic status quo."

][http://www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/scottish-independence-uk-dependency]]

OP posts:
ItsAllGoingToBeFine · 08/09/2014 14:54

www.neweconomics.org/blog/entry/scottish-independence-uk-dependency

OP posts:
BardarbungaBardarbing · 08/09/2014 14:56

ItsAll do you think this prospective crisis for rUK would be good for iScotland?

StatisticallyChallenged · 08/09/2014 14:57

I think it's trying to rationalise what is, fundamentally, market jitters.

I'm more inclined towards the moodys analysis tbh.

noddyholder · 08/09/2014 14:57

I read that too.

squoosh · 08/09/2014 15:02

The poll out tonight is from TNS-BMRB, it's different from all the others in that it's carried out face to face.

www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/09/08/at-last-a-non-internet-scottish-indyref-poll/

noddyholder · 08/09/2014 15:04

Westminster are panicking. The Uk is currently a place for bankers,landlords and people who have or will inherit The average person who works is stuffed. Scotland could do worse than try and run their own show tbh and tailor their fiscal policy to their actual people rather than be run from the city

AnnieHoo · 08/09/2014 15:07

But Noddy, the Yes campaign says there is no other option than being 'run from the city'. They want currency union.

Sallyingforth · 08/09/2014 15:08

The Uk is currently a place for bankers,landlords...

It's be a place for a lot more bankers after a Yes vote, quite apart from all the other trades moving south.