Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

Well said chocco

I'm back knocking on doors tomorrow. Yesterday was heartening, altho I did get told to remove myself south of the border by one delightful man - ironically in good Anglo-Saxon language

"No is about accepting the status quo instead of the unknown"

There is no 'status quo' to accept. The impact of a No vote is unpredictable. We could easily end up with a Conservative government, under severe pressure from a rising UKIP vote, determined to hold a referendum which would take the UK out of Europe. US banks are already working on Brexit strategies. Anyone who claims that remaining in the UK offers a cast-iron guarantee of economic stability is ignoring this prospect, and also ignoring the impact of the recent banking crisis which Westminster failed to foresee or forestall. It also overlooks the very real indications of yet another housing bubble in the SE.

"I get the impression it's more an education divide than a class divide. The well educated are voting no and the poorly educated voting yes. And the poorly educated are probably on average poorer than the well educated (for obvious reasons)."

Well since you're basing this on personal perception, I'd have to say that I live in an affluent, well-educated, left-leaning constituency and frankly I'd be astonished if it returned a no vote.

"And probably the very young are more likely to vote yes too. As they have no wealth whatsoever and they favour excitement/action over sameness/inaction."

Actually, most data shows that 16-18 year olds are more likely to vote No. You're drawing some very prejudiced conclusions about young people

"amongst more affluent ABC1 voters the swing has been a more modest six points"

So Curtice shows that there is a 6 point swing from No to Yes amongst affluent professionals.

Trixie- I studied economics for 4 years and I'm voting yes.

None of the no fs people on any of these threads have claimed to study economics.

It is beyond insulting to say that no voters are more intelligent.

Sallyingforth precisely!

I was chatting to an acquaintance yesterday who said he'd never thought of independence before but (and we studiously avoided commitment on either side) it obviously was on his mind. No way would I tell him economic hard times would come to him because as a self-employed person on low pay I suspect he'll manage whatever. I still think it would be negative on the whole to the country but I do think his self interest wouldn't be ill served by a Yes vote.

I don't know why all this reference to education levels has come about. It's no more helpful to the discussion that references to Nazism.

Can we just drop it please?

I've studied economics fairly extensive both at undergrad and as part of professional quals.

weatherall - on average 'yes' voters are likely to be less well-educated. You can still have outliers on a Poisson distribution.

I agree, having to show our A level and degree certificates is a bit much

Apologies Sallyingforth I cross posted with you and was responding to Weatherall. The stereotyping is counter productive to the discussion.

www.mumsnet.com/politics/mumsnetters-on-scottish-referendum The outcome of the MN Survey...

Polonium they may be operating logically with the information/promises given.

A no vote is saying yes to

-TTIP in the NHS
-trident renewal
-uncertainty over EU membership
-potential Tory/UKIP coalition
-roll out of universal credit
-no benefits for under 25s
-Uni tuition fees
-paying towards hs2
-paying £60 million pa for our MPs
-no exploration of west coast for oil
-fracking

• a cut in the Barnett formula

-losing free care & free prescriptions

• future cuts to the number of Scottish MPs

Why would anyone vote for that?

The outcome of the MN Survey...

I'm quite surprised they got 1000 responses

Oldlady- I think that shows that there are many hidden yes voters on mn who are too scared to post on these threads because of the bullying insults yes posters get.

I agree with Crisayde.

I live in a left-leaning, well educated, nationalist stronghold. I would expect a Yes majority for my constituency.

The 18-25 age bracket are showing a considerable majority for NO in the polls.

I also agree there is no "status quo". We can't predict economic change or crisis - nationally or globally.

Weatherall - Voting yes is saying no to:

being subsidised by England
the low charge incurred on Scotland's proportionate share of UK debt

So the truth is you won't be able to afford free tuition fees and free care and free prescriptions.

A yes vote will mean austerity like you've never seen.

weatherall

As you very well know, that list has been discussed in length many times, and are not as clear cut as you would suggest.

In addition you have carefully omitted all the negatives of a Yes vote - starting with, but not exclusively, loss of control over your currency and exclusion from the EU for several years.

If you are addressing your list at newcomers to the thread, I strongly suggest that they have a read through from the beginning, and preferably through the earlier ones too, to gain a more balanced view.

That is a list filled with just the sort of scaremongering you claim to object to weatherall. I could produce a list for yes which is just as inflammatory and based on scare stories. In fact, some of the entries would be the same.

Ridiculous claim weatherall. I don't particularly rate the quality of the survey, remember the questions in relation to the attractiveness of the campaign leaders? Fwiw, I am a convinced no, but answered that AS is doing a good job, because honestly he is - even if I fundamentally don't agree with him.
It's much more likely IMO, that there are no voters not engaging at all in public because of the sustained campaign of nastiness by some yes campaigners. But apples don't fall far from the tree.

I didn't do the survey because I'd heard I had to rate attractiveness!

Sally, I completely understand what you are saying, you and statistically are talking a lot of sense and there is a lot of useful information on here.

While I'm not 100% sure about voting yes I was leaning that way over the past couple weeks. Before that I was leaning more to no. It's entirely possible that I may change my mind again before the vote as tbh it's quite a lot to think about.

Ultimately I (and everyone else) need to decide what is best for the country, and more importantly what is best for our families. The politicians can say whatever they want but they're not straight talking which makes everything a hundred times more difficult and there are so many people getting so emotional and becoming so personal and aggressive about it that even asking simple questions about the impact of certain things becomes increasingly difficult.

For instance, I was speaking to a rather lovely lady who was handing out vote no leaflets in town yesterday. She asked me what I would be voting and I told her I was likely to vote yes but I wasn't entirely sure, only to be told I shouldn't be allowed to vote at all since I was from England. This pissed me off rather a lot since a) I'm not from England and have never lived in England, I've a mixed accent that most people find difficult to place (I've been asked if I'm from america/canada/england a lot) and b) if I'm living in scotland and have lived here all my life then what difference does it make where I come from originally?

She then went on to ask my reasons and I listed a couple, only for her to tell me that if I voted yes then the nhs would be shut down, I would never find a job and my life and my children's would be ruined.

I asked her where she had got her info about the nhs being shut down and I haven't seen anything said about that, she couldn't answer. I asked her why the job I already had was in danger when it has no plans on shutting down, she couldn't answer. I asked her why my life and my children's would be ruined and she spouted off about the currency being changed to a weaker euro. I told her if that was the only reason bad thing that would come from a yes vote I would take my chances.

But similarly I've had bullocks spouted off to me by a yes campaigner too about how I would lose my home/have a higher tax rate/face riots if a no vote was to happen.

I want straight answers to be the reason for my vote, not scare mongering and bullshit. I had hoped the discussions on here would be a bit more civilised and informative but there seems a few people hell bent on trying the same scaremongering/hate filled speech that both sides have used (whether directly related to either campaigns or not)