Indyref 6

[StatisticallyChallenged]

Welcome to indyref 6

Spidergirl8 asked close to end of last thread:

What impact would independence have on fiscal policy and economic stability
What impact would the ageing population have on the future
Is the predicted future a positive one, based on fact

If the bite goes no, what has actually been achieved? Does that not just put Scotland on the back foot?

Let's try and give not too biased answers please!

Some delivery firms already charge more to deliver to 'Highlands and Islands', but retailers generally level their prices across the UK. So there is a small subsidy for remote parts.
After independence, the big companies will almost certainly have separate divisions in Scotland due to different tax and currency arrangements. The Scottish divisions will very likely have to charge more, but it's sheer guesswork how much that will be. No doubt the Yes side will deny any increase at all. It's up to you whether you believe them.

To concern yourself with whether Tunnoch's wafers are going to go up or down is unanswerable trivia.

There's one thing for sure. Tesco are playing both sides of the field for now.

Either way they'll look after their profit margins!

Lady C
You have been continually aggressive recently. Your link to the video linking the Yes campaign to the Nazis yesterday was downright vile and totally unacceptable, as was your response when challenged on it. You should probably have been reported. However, I respect your right to air your opinions just the same as I respect the rights of No voters to air their views. I don't think you are looking for answers or to move the debate forward but maybe you will surprise me yet!

I think LadyC is being perfectly reasonable.

Worth noting ItsAll that the S&P one predates most of the currency union issues I think (it's from February) and whilst they say an iScotland could successfully float a currency, they also say:

"A successful agreement on Scotland's membership of a monetary union negotiated with either the U.K. or the eurozone (European Economic and Monetary Union) would provide considerable support for the rating on a
sovereign Scotland.

Alternatively, a decision by a sovereign Scotland to issue its own new and untested currency or to unilaterally adopt the currency of another sovereignwithout gaining access to that currency's lender of last resortcould pose some initial risks to external financing, in our opinion. Specifically, we think Scotland would be hard-pressed, under a new currency regime, to quickly replicate the deep capital markets it enjoys today as part of the larger U.K."

sconequeen, the major retailers distribution costs won't increase. They are already higher in Scotland due to the geography and population density. These higher costs are smeared across the whole of the UK so they can provide the same prices to consumers in Scotland (and other more remote areas in rUK).

Within Scotland the central belt is cheaper to serve than the north of Scotland as more people live there. I would hope that grocery prices in iScotland would be the same across the country, with those in the more populated areas subsidising the costs of serving those in less densely populated areas.

Post independence why would the major retailers continue to subsidise those additional costs in Scotland so that grocery costs in rUK are higher than they need to be?

Maybe they'll continue swallowing the costs but the odds are they won't. And who knows what will happen with the currency situation which adds a whole other level of uncertainty to pricing.

I have the upmost respect for people who are voting yes. I have many friends that are. But you cannot assume things will continue as they are.

The link deeedeee posted up thread about the 1995 Quebec referendum is worth a read. It showed how many yes voters under-estimated the degree of change that independence would bring.

Tunnochs wafers don't feature high on my weekly shop. Bread, milk, cereal, meat, rice, pasta, general household items, all things that you need to live and need to survive, they are important however.

Could you live if you could not afford to feed your family the basics? Would you be able to go without washing because you could not afford even a bar of soap? How about electric and gas prices, are they trivial too? After all you only need electric and gas to provide hot water, light and heat. To be able to cook and survive. But of course they must be trivial

And LadyC has made some excellent points on this thread.

Scone queen - you are very overbearing and very rude.. What on earth would you be reporting her for? For disagreeing with you on an indyreferendum discussion thread?

Polonium
Are you suggesting that Prettypictures' concern about feeding her family is trivia?
She is asking a serious question and I gave a serious answer.

Food makes up a large part of household outgoings. To call questions and worries about the cost of it after independence "unanswerable trivia" is just totally patronising.

Morning folks! Just a quick reminder to please consider our Talk Guidelines when posting.
www.mumsnet.com/info/netiquette
We understand that feelings run high on both sides of the debate, but please avoid personal remarks. This has been a really interesting thread, so it would be a shame if it turned into a bunfight and we had to delete it.
Thanks

re my response about food prices, I don't think much can be drawn from the supermarket responses of "we've no plan to increase prices" - I think that's a very corporate speak answer which translates to "we've not written anything down and don't necessarily plan to do it for no reason but they might well increase if it's more appropriate for our business, would reflect our cost base etc etc."

I've not the time or inclination to post here today when the sun is shining and we're ahead in the polls.

Lady C, I respect some of your opinions, you're an intelligent and passionate woman and you occasionally make me laugh. But you are being consistently rude and derailing what could be a constructive debate. I've bit my tongue for too long.

I think any insults should be ignored and reported from now on

have a nice day everyone . x

Could you live if you could not afford to feed your family the basics? Would you be able to go without washing because you could not afford even a bar of soap? How about electric and gas prices, are they trivial too? After all you only need electric and gas to provide hot water, light and heat. To be able to cook and survive. But of course they must be trivial

I've already had to buy and travel over to friends with food and supplies because they can't afford them. Sadly, more than one friend is now homeless due to not being able to afford to pay the bills (but thankfully living with friends). I think the cost of living is already too high for some, and is not being helped with the influx of reasons now being given to sanction benefits and JSA. :(

That's sad numaboid, I hope things work out for them I've been in a similar situation and have no desire to repeat it if it can be helped, it's why I'm worried about if there will be a drastic increase in prices

But discussion about retail pricing is meaningless. Because Scotland's union with the rest of the UK is not accretive for the rest of the UK. It's therefore obvious that Scotland's GDP per capita is going to fall. It doesn't matter what currency that fact is expressed in, the fact remains the same I whether it's expressed in pounds, Euro or Highland Bitcoin.

How is it going to be possible for Scotland to pay its people more and spend more on public services when:

The subsidy from the rest of the UK will disappear.

It will be more expensive for Scotland to service its debt (it will have to take a fair share of the UK's debt).

And I'm not even going to open the can if worms that is business withdrawal from Scotland.

Polonium - I am not trying to be rude, and I am more than happy to discuss indyref topics with No voters or else I wouldn't be here. But I do object to the fact that Lady C thinks it is acceptable, indeed "hilarious" to link the Yes campaign and Alec Salmond with the Nazis and Hitler as she did yesterday... I hope if you look at my posts, you will see an attempt to put over views about various issues which I have thought carefully about and which I have been trying to explore positively. I have been ready to apologise if someone has been offended by anything I have said which has come over differently in a post from how it would have been taken face to face.

Re supermarket prices post-independence, I live in the Highlands and Islands and we already pay higher prices for various things because of distribution costs. Much of this is due to high fuel duties plus lack of investment in transport infrastructure such as roads and railways. I don't think distribution costs will increase and there is every chance that they could fall because an independent Scotland could address fuel duty costs and invest in infrastructure. It could also implement policies such as encouraging more local and sustainable food production, and look at supporting alternative distribution and retail models. I also believe that the currency situation will be resolved in the event of a Yes vote because there are very pragmatic reasons for that to happen on both sides.

I'm sorry but I don't think retail prices are irrelevant when they are every day costs of living and everyone would be affected if they increased drastically. But that's just my opinion.

You're right, if course a Scottish Government could address fuel duty costs. As could a Westminster one. As far as I am aware the SNP has not stated any intention to reduce fuel duty and it would run contrary to their eco approach.
The only statement in the white paper re fuel duty is " Scottish Government
will examine the benefits of a introducing a Fuel Duty Regulator mechanism to stabilise prices for business and consumers"

That's far from proposing to reduce it.

Statistically - I think that investment in transport infrastructure, encouragement of local sourcing and alternative retailing models are probably the sensible long terms and sustainable solutions but fuel duty changes could make a difference in the short term.

The White Paper view is only that of the SNP. I am sure that in the event of a Yes vote, there would be a great deal of further discussion of the whole range of transport and sustainability issues, and people would be able to vote for the policies which they thought best.

They are all possible, of course. But they're not even being proposed at the moment, so I would not take them into account when making a decision as all of those things could be done by WM too.

Polonium I think that's a step too far.

I dislike the Nationalist movement and don't think AS could be trusted to run a whelk stall, but to compare them to the Nazis is over-egging.