Indyref Part 4

[SantanaLopez]

Evening all :)

Hopefully we will all remember that significant percentages of the population will want to hide under the duvet that morning, whichever result it is.

I'm supposed to be in work on the 19th, although I'm not on the 18th.

The shame of being a grabby nation, unwilling to work with our neighbours, not content to be a supposed minority - competing with the rUK for business, resources, a bigger share of EU funds. Dismantling the union that set up the internationally admired NHS, welfare system, academic bodies etc.

I must admit , I'm voting yes because I know it's the right thing. But I'll even feel a bit sad not to write UK anymore. Even when change is the right thing it can be sad. Like children leaving home or moving house.

The shame of being a grabby nation, unwilling to work with our neighbours, not content to be a supposed minority - competing with the rUK for business, resources, a bigger share of EU funds. Dismantling the union that set up the internationally admired NHS, welfare system, academic bodies etc.

Sorry but I think that is way too far. It has been discussed throughout these threads that no-one should be ashamed of how they vote. Those are not the reasons I, nor anyone I know, is voting Yes.

I wonder what I will do with the suddenly free hours in the evenings and at weekends - sleep? Actually keep on top of all the other things I should be doing?

It's amazing just how strongly the debate is felt on either Side. I feel sorry for you all, but I so strongly disagree with you. Such a shame that it looks like it'll be so close. I think it'll be incredibly close to 50/50

Late 70's here OOAOML!

StatisticallyChallenged: I've thought through some hypotheticals should a yes vote occur but I'm shelving further thinking till the 19th. Now I have my list of what I'd need to decide with DH in any aftermath (he won't discuss now which I understand as it may not happen) I feel more in control and not scared. I'd be very sad, mind; but that would be laughed at as Project Nostalgia no doubt .

chocco, that's bang on. I don't have a vote but dread the negotiations in the event of a Yes vote. I think the media South of the border have been pretty even-handed. If they decide that iScotland wants to have its cake and eat it they will turn public opinion. That would tie the hands of WM politicians and a vicious spiral ensues.

How is it not grabby to want to keep all the oil revenues for ourselves, all the fish stocks, compete for as much EU funding as we can get? - lt's all about what's supposedly best for the people of Scotland, and the rUK can go to hell. 'Self'-determination remember.

I admit that's putting it negatively - if we have a right to self-determination then we're entitled to claim it. But it seems like a backwards step to me - dismantling such an old union despite no significant differences between the countries and a cost to both countries. For what? The hope for a 'fairer and more equal society' for a tiny minority of UK. Because the Scottish electorate are more moral than rUK with more moral political leaders? I honestly think that's a naïve and deluded hope.

Personally I will vote yes because I want to preserve the good things that the Union led to, not destroy them like the NHS, welfare etc.

We can have it written into our constitution & protect it for future generations.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, you can only preserve things that you can afford to keep paying for.

Hopefully universal healthcare, decent welfare benefits and other support services would continue in iScotland.

The challenges for a newly established country will be immense in the short, medium and long term.

preserve the good things that the Union led to - but by your thinking, only for the people of scotland.

There's a recession - and an ageing population - we can't afford the lifestyle we've been having indefinitely. Spending on the NHS has gone up and up - as medical advances have been made and the number of very elderly people goes up.

Setting up a new country will be expensive - I believe an independent Scotland wouldn't be able to afford as much public spending as we have now, never mind increasing it.

You can write anything you like into a constitution - doesn't mean it will come about. The more detailed the constitution the less possible it is to enact all of it.

x-posted.

At the risk of pointing out the obvious, you can only preserve things that you can afford to keep paying for.

Without the oil Scotland's GDP per head is pretty much the same as the UKs. With the oil it is substantially higher. Scotland can afford it.

It's pretty "grabby" for WM to be using our tax money to pay for HS2 and London's sewers atm, Choco. It's been said several times that if we vote Yes, WM will play hardball, there are regular threats to veto our EU membership; wtf shouldn't we say it's our oil, fish stocks etc? RUK have been sponging off us for years, and calling us subsidy junkies all the time, I'm fed up of my country rolling over and playing doormat. Time to stand up for ourselves, and our future generations.

I'll be in my 80s - I wonder how many "I told to so"s will be uttered?

Or whether there is any information which, if released, would have influenced the result and which we really should have been privy to ?

To whoever said they hadn't seen any polls that put Yes ahead, I have seen quite a few in the past weeks and months.

The most striking one was from "Coatbridge Museum" on FB. Whether or not it is the official museum page(!) it ran a simple Yes/No poll last week (Thurs, I think).

The poll lasted roughly 6 hours, during which time close to 6,000 people left a comment saying either Yes or No.

The result at 6pm was 80.7% Yes, 19.3% No.

This seems a pretty robust sample to me - far greater than most officially commissioned polls, no? Would be really interested to hear what people think of this?

*At the risk of pointing out the obvious, you can only preserve things that you can afford to keep paying for.

Without the oil Scotland's GDP per head is pretty much the same as the UKs. With the oil it is substantially higher. Scotland can afford it.*

Now subtract the majority of the financial services industry. And the UK Civil service jobs that are disproportionately higher in number. And the Shipbuilders (No MOD ships will be built in a foreign country). Oh and the extra admin costs of running your own state rather than the "economies of scale" of using UK facilities. And the question of the currency. And EU membership. And the extra costs of NOT being in the UK market. And the forecast decline in oil revenues. And the overall negative effect on oil prices of shale gas and renewables.
I could go on.
Still so confident?

Are Yes voters tired of subsidising Wales and Northern Ireland or does that just apply to the infrastructure projects that are linked to London? Pretty much however you cut the data, it's clear that Wales and Northern Ireland are consistent net recipients of additional cash.

As someone resident in England, i've got no issue with that. Better that the money is pooled and shared across the four countries to ensure relatively consistent levels of support.

You can write anything you like into a constitution - doesn't mean it will come about. The more detailed the constitution the less possible it is to enact all of it.

I'd agree with this. I'm very wary of a constitution that sounds like an election manifesto, or that is too specific. Obviously the current proposal is an interim constitution and a wide consultation exercise.

A constitution (and even if there is a No vote, I think it is time to look at having a UK written consitution) should be kept at such a level that it doesn't need altered every time government policy changes. It should be able to stand as is, and be supplemented by current legislation. The proposals I've seen are (I think) too close to a policy statement. But before anyone jumps at me, I am aware that the plan is to consult on the final version.

There may be the odd pound or two saved by no longer propping up Trident .

A poll on a Facebook page is not remotely robust, as doubtless it would have been heavily promoted, presume no safeguards to ensure people aren't voting multiple times with fake profiles (I've seen some fascinating names on FB discussions), and using a self-selecting panel rather than the polling companies employing various weightings to try and get representative samples (although I'm still not sure how representative they are, I haven't gone into a great deal of detail on it, although I have read a bit about how they do it).

I wouldn't call any self selecting Facebook poll a reliable or random sample frankly. All it takes is for a couple of campaign groups to share it and the results would be hugely biased. I'd also say that overall I think yes supporters are more active on social media which would also influence the outcome.
There's a lot more to good polling than size.

Now subtract the majority of the financial services industry
Possibly.

And the UK Civil service jobs that are disproportionately higher in number.

Scotland will also require a civil service.

And the Shipbuilders (No MOD ships will be built in a foreign country)

They can build commercial ships, and possibly ships for the Scottish Defence Force. There were 4 offers on Ferguson's so obviously more than one person thinks ship building still has a place.

Oh and the extra admin costs of running your own state. rather than the "economies of scale" of using UK facilities

It is quite likely our admin costs would be less. A lot easier to administer to 5 million people than 60 million.

And the question of the currency.

Currency union/sterlingisation in short term. Own currency/Euro in long term.

And EU membership.

Realistically, not an issue.

And the extra costs of NOT being in the UK market

??

And the forecast decline in oil revenues.

Of course the oil is going to run out in a few years. It will help during the transition but is not needed long term.

And the overall negative effect on oil prices of shale gas and renewables.

Most of the renewables are in Scotland.

Still so confident?

Yes. I am not stupid. I have done my research and in my view an iScotland will do just fine

< High fives old lady >