Indyref Part 4

[SantanaLopez]

Evening all :)

I acknowledge your points, feeling and fester, but still don't understand how any of this is an argument to make us vote No.

And have they not noticed yet that every time they make more of these kinds of threats, support for the Yes campaign increases?

It's this kind of negative campaigning, threats and scaremongering which makes the prospect of an independent Scotland with a different kind of politics so appealing.

I think you're right, sconequeen, I've certainly seen many, many FB posts and Tweets saying exactly that. Even people who were previously voting No are changing their minds. It's all to play for as we go into the last fortnight, and BT are doing themselves no favours. Show us a positive case for the union, eh? Enough of the threats and fearmongering.

Yes, OLKS, I think that it is all to play for too and that it's going to be an exciting two weeks!

Let me give you an example of the Yes voter in our family. He was paid for for his whole life by our parents and since their deaths has contentedly chomped his way through the modest inheritance they cobbled together for him. Having exhausted that, he is now getting stuck in to his ccs on the grounds that if he defaults (which he will) that they're English so it's their own problem. (While trying for cash handouts from the rest of the family for any things which can't be dealt with by cc - if only temporarily.)

I realise that he's not representative of all Yes voters but he is at least representative of some. He seems to believe that everything in his life will be sorted by a Yes vote on the 18th without any effort on his part.

What a great contribution OneNight.

(Why would rUK block EU membership for us? How does that benefit their citizens?)

I don't see anyone saying that on this thread?

Why would/should we choose to remain governed by people who are willing to fuck us up as much as possible if we say Yes?

The yes campaign's own economics will do that all on their own....

It's not about being bullied or fucked over. That's a totally unnecessary subversion of really valid political points.

If you want to be independent, you'll be treated as such. Westminster's duty is to look after it's citizens. If you want that to include you, vote no. If you vote yes, you'll have your fairer better parliament purely looking out for Scotland's interests. Why should a foreign parliament do their job for them?

In addition to that, yes campaigners called Westminster evil, blamed them for dying babies (that was weatherall, charmingly) etc etc. It's so... ridiculous/ false/ can't think of the word that you then turn round and accuse them if bullying for refusing to kowtow to Salmond's tune.

This all a bit dotty. If I say that an advantage of the Union is that Scotland has a central bank, lender of last resort and a strong currency is it also a threat that this advantage may go away in the event of an iScotland?

Similarly an advantage of the Union is that WM builds ships on the Clyde. Is it a threat to point out that WM may have different priorities in the event of an iScotland?

By definition any advantages/positives about the Union are threatened by independence. That's not a threat. It's a fact of life.

Have been away and now catching up.

After yesterday's poll, for the first time I'm wondering - have we had any kind of reassurance from anyone sensible (ie the Governor of the Bank of England) about sterling balances and mortgages in Edinburgh-registered banks?

We'd be covered by the fscs until actual independence but beyond that it would depend on the arrangements put in place I think. Scotland would need to create their equivalent, and of course the banks may well shift at least head /registered offices so they become based in rUK

ah, yes, here

They will remain bank of last resort - but i suspect there will still be a steady flow of sterling from Scottish banks to English if there's a Yes vote on the 18th

As for our mortgage - we have a great fixed deal but with a London registered bank, so god help us when we have to remortgage - presumably it would have to be with a Scottish bank, so probably paying higher interest rates, or at a higher rate with an English bank because to them our house will then be in a foreign country.

Statistically, xpost - in which case I wonder whether those with Scottish property will get the same deals as rUK.

Not looking for an answer - given up on that months ago

My best guess -and that's all it can be -is that the head offices of the banks shift south and separate Scottish foreign subsidiaries would be created, probably using existing brands. So they'd be separate banks and freely able to charge different rates.

I enjoyed the debate last night. I'm a yes, but I like Kezia, while not agreeing with many of her arguments. I usually have no time for Ruth Davidson, but she seems to have smartened up her act.

I believe Yes have the winning arguments.

Oh, yes voters, remember to bring a pen with you to vote. Probably Facebook scaremongering (I know, I know) but I heard some pish about there only being pencils provided at polling stations. I'm 99% certain this is untrue, but just in case

What, you think someone's going to break into the boxes and rub out the 'X's?

Really?

sorry, that was to TeamScotland obv

Apologies for coming back to a couple of points, but discussions went on after DP turned my phone off last night guess what he wanted.

On the MOD ships.
Going to a Scotland for future orders would cause a real stink in England. It would only happen if the government thought the financial saving of going to a foreign yard was worth the political hurt. I can't imagine that the Clyde could build the ships sufficiently cheaper than Portsmouth to justify that pain. But if the cost was really that crucial, we could save much more by going to Poland, who could beat either price.

On the EU.
There is no reason why the UK should want to block iScot's request to join the EU. We'll have enough problems of our own to be dealing with. And I think the EU will be very glad to have you as a member. But I can't see them bending any rules for you, and you won't be getting the preferential arrangements and rebates that the UK currently has and some other countries dislike so much.

General.
As others have pointed out, the No campaign is always going to be a poor one because it is basically status quo, and anyone unhappy with that will always vote for something that promises better.
I do not think that in the negotiations, UK will be spiteful and deliberately try to do Scotland down, but I will expect them to fight just as hard for the UK as the SNP will for Scotland. There will inevitably be resentment on both sides. It's going to be very unpleasant.

The party conferences are about to start, and you will see then what their delegates' attitudes are to an iScotland. Expect them all to confirm their policies on CU.

And I very much agree with LadyCordelia - it's a wishlist dressed up as promises.

Whether an Edinburgh government get a currency union or not, they will be tied either directly or indirectly to the purse-strings of the Bank of England.

Freddie that's not what I said. It's a simple thing to bring a pen, to be sure though.

Last week some idiot who was going to be a vote counter tweeted something about him spoiling yes votes. He was reported and dealt with, and won't be counting any votes, thankfully. (Would like to add he'd be just as much of an idiot if it were no votes he planned to spoil).

My local council (can't speak for what's happening in other areas) cannot be trusted one little bit on this one.

Shit goes on.

teamscotland oh come on
I'm sure there will be pens in all the booths, otherwise how will they make sure only the Yes voters get a pencil - segregation?

Re the ballot papers, I've read concerns from both sides. As someone who has counted elections in the past, I can assure you that there really isn't time to alter the papers like that. The boxes are sealed in the polling station, they're taken to the count, and then opened in the presence of election agents from the parties (well in this case from the campaign groups). When I did it, the first count was of the number of papers in the box, to make sure it matched number of votes recorded. As soon as the papers hit the table, people are hanging over your shoulder trying to read them. All the votes for each area were counted and verified (batches of 50 I think, although it is a while since I've done it) and only when the counting office was happy did we move to phase 2, which was sorting them out into the various candidates.

At no stage in this is there a chance to start messing with the votes. I suppose if you were really paranoid, you could assume an attempt to interfere with the entire box, but it would be very difficult to get away with that because it is unlikely the number of votes would tally. In addition, when I read the paper on how the count would be organised, it was made clear that the papers would be kept for a year. If there was a belief that entire ballot boxes were being tampered with, they could be recounted. As the ballot papers in each station have a reference number, it should be easy to spot if an entire box had been interfered with. And probably the only way that could happen would be for large scale criminal activity at the Electoral Commission, which I really think is unlikely.

On the other hand, and this is probably going to make me sound nutty, I think I might take my own pen purely so I can keep it afterwards. I'm planning on using one of my 'No Thanks' ones.

Good morning.

Please may I have a quick rant? Em, thanks

DD's (very nice and IMO clever) yes-voting friend asked me where I was getting the info on which my no vote would be partially based. Keep that in mind - the relevance will be revealed later.
He had to think for a while about what I meant by asking him what he thought the peculiarly Scottish needs are. Then he understood and couldn't think of any. Except for the needs of rural areas - he wasn't convinced by the reminder that there are rural communities throughout uk.
He explained that a small yes majority given that 100% of the electorate won't turn out (obviously, and it looks like it's going to be a good turnout) and the rUK won't vote is democratic. "That's how democracy works," he explained.(He's 18. He dismissed my interest in the 'Get the bare boobs out of the sun' campaign on the grounds that "it's a rubbish paper" - he went on to explain to me why it's rubbish - as if I'd disagree). But he feels under represented by having 59 mps in Westminster and a devolved government. Because his vote can't "alter the outcome because it's skewed towards London". He wasn't bothered by the fact that the majority party in Scotland - ie, labour (though that might change) has been in government for most of his life.
He wasn't remotely bothered by my trying to convince him that I think AS will say anything to get votes. My example was admittedly small, but I think shocking - AS claimed on a radio phone-in that children who go to childcare while both parents work are "bond better with their parents". He couldn't think of any similar examples of outrageous claims made by the No campaign (I'm not claiming that there aren't faults on both sides).

But here's the rub, sorry I said I'd be quick - on FB he has 'liked' Wings Over Scotland' and Alex Salmond.

(Then he proceeds to continue helping himself to our hospitality cheerfully given, frequently too, despite him rarely ever saying thank you - I don't think he's going to vote the same way as DH and me just because we're kind to him but the good old MN word 'entitled' comes to mind.)

wild I'm sure there will be pens not pencils. I took it with a large pinch of salt. Even so I'll be taking my own pen.

...if that is nutty, so be it

Polling booths usually have those small pencils, kind of like the Ikea ones. Think how many hands will have been on them.....(just in case we have any people in from the germs are everywhere quiche )

Team I think after this long a debate, all of us are going to be a little nutty (and I really don't mean that in a negative way, please nobody take offence, just that it has been very intense and obviously it matters so much to everyone whatever 'side' they are on). If voting by pen helps deal with the stress on the day, then so be it.