to start a new Scottish Indyref thread?

[FannyFifer]

Round 2 folks, ding ding!

No remaining UK Prime Minister would concede a currency union. Why would they? It would be instant electoral suicide. On the contrary, they could get a free ride on blaming/punishing Scotland for a decade to come.

Eventually sanity will prevail and there will be a normalisation of relations, but I estimate that it would take at least 2 Parliaments. In the meantime, rational arguments will take a backseat to populism, and Scotland would be in for a very tough time.

If you're right deeedeee, and I hope you are, we will find that the negotiations Team Scotland and Westminster have will be very different to the referendum campaigning.

He's knowledgable and trustworthy.

An independent Scotland could not walk away from the debt. Please don't be fooled. The international banks would crucify us and using the pound outwith a formal CU isn't the greatest option to start with.

No leader who seriously suggests this is knowledgable nor trustworthy.

7-23 is a very vague percentage. Suspect tonight's debate won't have helped many make a decision.

scotland would be in for a very rough time

Precisely why she should be her own nation.

TeamScotland No, that's in the event that Scotland becomes her own nation.

Responsibility for the debt has already been accepted by Westminster.

I understood the first time, thanks anyway.

SantanaLopez

I noticed on the previous thread you mentioned something about British passports being declared invalid. Please be reassured that this simply cannot happen. There is no legal way for the British government to strip citizenship of someone who is born a British citizen. Suddenly living in an independent Scotland no more gives Britain the ability to take away your British passport than moving to a foreign country does. The only thing they could do is disallow people to hold both Scottish and British passports, so people would have to choose.

R.e. the debt - the Bank of England declared ages ago that rUK as the successor state was responsible for it. If Scotland gets no share of the assets (e.g. a currency union) of the UK, then they have no share of the debt. I read an interesting comment that from an international banks point of view it would be less advisable for Scotland to voluntarily shoulder a debt that it had already been made clear they didn't "own", because it is just financially unwise and adds burdens where they aren't necessary (whose going to lend to someone who throws their money around unnecessarily?)

^what SantanaLopez said. Trustworthy is not walking away from a debt which was created in part by propping up banks which are at least partially Scottish and funding public spending in the UK - including Scotland.

I actually think he probably is knowledgeable - I think he knows his currency plans are crap and that all options are pretty bad. He won't commit to one because he's probably damaged less by the arguments over which is his true plan B than he would be damaged by BT hammering him on the downsides of one specific option. He knows the white paper has more holes than a sieve and that everything he has promised isn't affordable without massive tax rises. I don't think he's stupid, I think he's blinkered and believes in independence at all costs.

FannyFifer Westminster has guaranteed the debt - that doesn't mean they're saying Scotland has no responsibility for it, just that they are guaranteeing to the markets that whatever happens they'll be responsible and ensure it does get paid. That's an approach they almost certainly had to take to ensure market stability.

Legal responsibility for the debt has been accepted by Westminster, indeed. So Scotland could decide to default on its share. The problem is that firstly that would be idiotic (especially without knowing what next week's currency is going to look like). It hurts Scotland more than it hurts the remaining UK. But secondly, it hardens the negotiating stance for the remaining UK team. They will concede nothing - absolutely nothing - if Scotland defaults on its share of the debt. And they don't need to - they would be negotiating from a position of strength, whereas Scotland would be negotiating from a position of weakness.

Scotland has exactly one good card to play in independence negotiations - forcing out Trident before the remaining UK is ready for it. And even that isn't particularly strong.

That doesn't matter Fanny. Scotland must take her own share of the debt. No debt, no assets (inc. gold reserves), no lender of last resort = chaos. And you could kiss goodbye to EU membership.

Responsibility for the debt has already been accepted by Westminster

Pure semantics, I'm afraid - you omitted the bit about an independent Scotland still being expected to reimburse their fair share

No doubt Salmond would expect to negotiate his way out of that, too, and that's where Scotland would pay, pay and pay again for such foolishness by the actions of the free market

As children have to learn, nobody can have everything they want, exactly as they want it, simply by stamping and demanding

I noticed on the previous thread you mentioned something about British passports being declared invalid. Please be reassured that this simply cannot happen. There is no legal way for the British government to strip citizenship of someone who is born a British citizen. Suddenly living in an independent Scotland no more gives Britain the ability to take away your British passport than moving to a foreign country does. The only thing they could do is disallow people to hold both Scottish and British passports, so people would have to choose.

Arguably, by choosing Yes, Scotland strips itself of British citizenship. Nothing has been made certain, so no, I won't be reassured.

I read an interesting comment that from an international banks point of view it would be less advisable for Scotland to voluntarily shoulder a debt that it had already been made clear they didn't "own", because it is just financially unwise and adds burdens where they aren't necessary (whose going to lend to someone who throws their money around unnecessarily?)

International economics doesn't work like this.

Everything will be up for negotiation, will wait & see.

Too many Yes voters have not realised that after independence they will have to persuade a country they have just separated from (with all the hostility that will inevitably bring) to give them what they want. I don't see how they are planning on doing that.

I don't doubt that Salmond/Sturgeon fully realise this; they obviously downplay it though. It would be more honest of them to say that the first few years would be total crap, but to then try and paint a picture of a better long-term future. Obviously I understand why they don't though.

I agree with everything StatisticallyChallenged said at 23.25.11 and particularly this:

'I don't think he's stupid, I think he's blinkered and believes in independence at all costs.'

i think you are all going to need to let your PR's know to notify your estate agents, pack your houses and diary in your relocation arrangements in a few weeks . Better get your houses sold quick before you're priced out of london entirely

just jesting ! :-X

WTF deeedeee? Just because we're Nos we must be rich folk with PRs, is that it? Yeah, ok.

For someone who started the last thread going on about no derision you're managing plenty of it on here.

"Everything will be up for negotiation" - exactly Fannyfifer, so no-one can actually make a proper informed choice about a vote, because there is no clear answer about what happens if there is a yes vote.

It should all have been negotiated before a referendum was even arranged, so voters could have a realistic view of what alternatives they are voting for.

you guys xx

SantanaLopez

Citizenship just doesn't work like that! It is vested in individuals and there is no way for the British government to strip individual born citizens of their citizenship.

One interesting aspect: I think an independent Scotland would actually be much more economically right-wing than a Scotland which remained in the UK. There would be natural space for a right-wing tax-cutting party which wasn't tainted by the Tory brand.