to think it proves lots of people want change

[adsy]

That ukip are making such huge gains in the elections.
If mnetters could temper their hysteria of screaming racism, I think it is a clear indication that the fundamental principals of the party of no toEurope and no to continued mass immigration are very important to a lot of people

Oh no I hope you can see it - it's Farage relaxing

'thousands of others voted UKIP too and they got the majority'

How do you reconcile that with their actual support in the local elections dropping from 23% to 17%?

Once you look at the actual numbers, they've shot their nasty little bolt. Half of their voters are proposing to vote differently in the GE.

So whilst I agree that they've made this country a colder, sadder place to live this week, I think they've hurt us as much as they can.

The constant repeating of the feathers quote is embarrassing like someone who has heard a new word and keeps using it regardless of context. I can't help feeling its a wind up because no one would want to show themselves up like this would they?

Good grief. claig appears to be using the Royal "we" now.

'How do you reconcile that with their actual support in the local elections dropping from 23% to 17%?'

Because as WetAugust and I said upthread, I voted UKIP in local elections last year in the shires, which is where UKIP has a greater support than in the cities and metropolitan areas. That is why the UKIP vote share dropped this year. But had they held the shire elections this year, the earthquake would have been even greater than last year because disaffectiuon with the other parties has grown over the past year, not declined.

'Good grief. claig appears to be using the Royal "we" now.'

Where was that please, ilovesooty?

well said Raven

Isn't the 17 per cent estimation allowing for those regional variations, though? Those national projections usually do.

Christ knows how psephologists managed all this before computers with whizz-bang algorithms.

'I can't help feeling its a wind up because no one would want to show themselves up like this would they?'

That is just my sense of humour. It may look like showing myself up to you, but I am not bothered, because I think it is funny.

Hardly an earthquake, is it? Possibly a small, wet tremor.

I'm liking your mate winston though...

www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/05/23/ukip-winston-mckenzie-cro_n_5377855.html

You definitely need more candidates of his calibre.

'Isn't the 17 per cent estimation allowing for those regional variations, though? Those national projections usually do.'

I don't think it is, because it is only based on this year's vote. it doesn't include last year's and if they had held last year's this year, then there really would be panic in the chicken coop.

We don't think he is a Conservative. We think he is like Blair and even admires Blair
he is not "on our side" and as far as we can tell so far, Farage is

I'm not sure given the demographics of where UKIP did well. But I'm pretty sure the predictions usually take account of previous voting patterns. I'll do some digging as it's opaque.

I'm sorry, it just doesn't have the feel of revolution to me. At best, the vote held up from last year.

Ok so I've not rtft but don't people always want change? Perhaps it's the rose tinted glasses of the good old days but I'm not sure there has been a party that has satisfied the majority of the country has there? It seemschoosing any party these days is the lesser of two evils. I can't see a brilliant natural born leader that inspires confidence in any of them tbh. (Isn't is Nige Faridge? Faraaarge is a little french sounding to my ears and I'm not sure he'd like that)

If it's not the Royal 2we" who are you presuming to speak for?

And I do wish you'd stop going on about Gordon Brown (Bennett). No one's voting for him so he's an irrelevance in terms of the preferences you're discussing.

Trust me, this is what claig really is like

I spend far too much time speculating what he / she looks like.

This is my current conclusion.

By that "we" I mean us disaffected Tory voters who have switched to UKIP. There was a huge switch in local council elections last year and it is still there today and probably growing. I can't see the Tories winning them back, which is why I think the Tories will have to do a deal with UKIP or Labour wil win the election.

I am not as attractive as that. I wish I was, but you can't have everything.

Massey is right and claig your lovely leader acknowledged it in a radio interview.

"Isn't is Nige Faridge? Faraaarge is a little french sounding to my ears and I'm not sure he'd like that)"

I think I read that Farage was a Belgian name and that he has some German roots too, I can't remember. He loves Europe and his wife is German.

No, I agree JassyRadlett.

& after all the hysteria, it feels to me rather as if many of those who wanted to send a 'yah boo sucks plague on both your houses' message have now got the poison out of their systems.

As so often, the Daily Mash nailed it.

www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/voters-do-walk-of-shame-2014052386883

I can't see disaffected Labour voters who've switched to UKIP being too thrilled if UKIP does a deal with the Tories.

In any case UKIP would be a minority party and Farage would have to play second fiddle. An ego the size of his wouldn't like that.

The Tories doing a deal with UKIP. God, that doesn't bear thinking about.

'I'm sorry, it just doesn't have the feel of revolution to me. At best, the vote held up from last year.'

We will have to wait for Sunday night. I think it will be stunning, but O don't know. I think it will lead to Cleggy being toppled and I suspect Cameron might face a challenge too.

If UKIP keep up th momentum, there wil be panic in the Tory party and they willhave to do a deal. Apparently on Sky, it said today that Lord Ashcroft gave a presentation today about polling in marginals and there was stunned silence among the Tories because labour was ahead.

If this is not a revolution, it will certainly lead to lots of changes.