Crisis What Crisis? Is my friend over doing the stockpiling and am I too? Continuation thread (2)

[RedToothBrush]

Continuation of the AIBU to think my friend is overdoing emergency stockpiling thread for discussion about the government advice to stockpile for an imminent emergency and what the heck that emergency might actually be.

I'm moving it over to chat from AIBU as it makes a bit more sense to be there at this point.

Previous thread
https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/am_i_being_unreasonable/5576816-aibu-to-think-my-friend-is-overdoing-emergency-stockpiling?page=1

Spoiler: it's more of a perfect storm of lots of factors coming together to potentially form one great clusterfuck from economic woes, global energy shortages (mainly diesel), potential food shortages, war and madmen to crazy weather patterns rather than a clear identifiable singular thread.

This is a practical thread and a bit of a handhold thread to make sense of events and how they may affect you. This is not an end of the world thread.

We are however going through a period where various governments throughout Europe think there is an elevated risk of some kind of problem due to global instability and we should start to get our heads around the possibility of needing to be ready for anything.

Remember an emergency can range from a temporary unexpected event to a much longer crisis but the underlying principles generally stay the same.

So this is for everything from tips and considerations about what might be a good idea to do /save minimise potential risks to just straight old political bollocks talk about how things are developing.

This is the official government information and advice, if you want further details on what the actual recommendations are:
https://prepare.campaign.gov.uk/get-prepared-for-emergencies/

This does actually explicitly say to write a personalised plan for your household which everyone knows and understands and to talk about the issues you may face to help you be able mobilise for any situation which might arise. Which is exactly what this thread is ultimately for.

I think my absolute distrust of what is actually happening re: the 'plague' made me take what I read at face value. And I should know better 😬

I think a lot of people will have severe withdrawals from no Internet and that won't help the country's mood one bit!

Venezuela's Cardón Oil Refinery, the country's second-largest, exploded and caught fire today.

The facility has reportedly halted operations, per Reuters.

Marshall S Billingslea
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marshall_Billingslea
In the 1990s I worked with Ken Alibek, the former No. 2 in the Soviet biological weapons program, after he defected to the US.

He claimed that they had engineered a strain of plague that was antibiotic-resistant & that they had worked on plague chimeras (fusing 2 or more pathogens).

He specifically called out Irkutsk for being involved in the BW program.

This outbreak is deeply worrisome. This may not be just “the plague.” It may be far worse.

Btw that Ebola case? Pretty worrying too as the patient who died travelled by plane.

https://news.sky.com/story/ukhsa-says-risk-of-plague-very-low-after-russian-laboratory-worker-dies-of-suspected-pneumonic-plague-13595782
Ukhsa says rick of plague very low

The ukhsa's predecessor said that the risk of COVID was low in Jan 2020. By March it was saying it was high risk!

I kind of wish I hadn't read Annie Jacobsons book.
It's almost exactly what happens in that - plague chimera and all that jazz.
Oh well, can't prep for that. If it is that and it gets out, we're fucked.
I don't worry about ebola because of the method of transmission. Maybe I'm too blasé though.

did anyone hear R4, it is quite normal to have a plague laboratory is the gist of what i think he said

It is normal to have labs with highly dangerous pathogens. We have Porton Down, the US have Fort Detrick for example. Why are people taking the word 'plague' on face value though? I'd be swapping the word for 'unknown pathogen'.

I think the issue is here that whilst it's 'normal' to have a lab, what's not normal is what Russia officially classes this particular lab as and what it declared despite it being known what was being done there by intelligence.

WHO yesterday put out a statement saying it was “an institute that studies dangerous pathogens, including plague, in a part of Siberia where plague occurs naturally in wild animals.”

No cause of death has been officially confirmed to date and laboratory testing is reportedly underway, Mr. Lindmeier said.

Sharing with reporters a message received from the Russian health authorities moments earlier on Tuesday, the WHO spokesperson said that “according to the test results, no pathogens of dangerous infectious diseases were detected among any of the contacts.”

The statement goes on but basically plays down the risk. But by this point media stories about a second death were starting to circulate.

WHO have subsequently gone back to Russia to ask wtf this is about since their initial statement and put out another statement saying they were chasing this up. This statement suggests the second death is another employee at the lab.

Keep in mind the protocols you should be going through if handling these pathogens and the level of protection you should be using. The claim that she was infected after a test tube broke, raises questions in its own right.

There's also quite a few comments about how the scale of the response is somewhat disproportionate to what Russia are doing. Plague cases do happen occasionally around the world but they are very treatable.

In this case they've locked down a lab and quarantined hundreds because the fear is clearly that it's possibly more than a normal case of plague. Which goes back to the point of intelligence knowing they've worked on biological weapons at this lab and the lack of reference to this rather crucial point from WHO who describe the lab as a normal lab which does 'anti-plague research' which is somewhat different to a military lab. The response is over the top 'unless someone thinks a high-consequence pathogen left the lab.'

The US Embassy in Moscow has issued quite a strong response, more so than you might expect, but we know that they had intelligent about this particular lab which key people have confirmed and it's in the public domain.

We shall see. I think everyone is on edge because of the Wuhan lab connection and the belief that China lied and covered up for a long time over COVID so there's almost an element of traumatic response to this story.

We can't trust a word the Russians say....God knows what has been released

Also from overnight, a few growing concerns about the Mid Terms.

Trump was doing a speech in which he said

"we have some big surprises coming up in a few weeks, right Russ? He's gonna be one of the important people in the history of our country."

This is Russ Vought, director of the Office of Management and Budget.

This has led to some screams that Russ Vought has the power to rig the election by I quote "replacing nonpartisan election officials with loyalists, cut critical funding, and block independent election oversight."

I'm not entirely convinced by the claim in this manner after doing a bit of reading about the role, but there are some concerns here. Vought's role does include 'cutting waste, fraud, and abuse across the federal government' but I think this is much more relevant:
One of the roles of the OMB is to vet everything that goes through the Executive branch and check over everything the President signs. This has led to Vought being dubbed 'The Shadow President'.

In a private speech he gave in 2024, Vought is quoted as having said "I don't want President Trump having to lose a moment of time having fights in the Oval Office about whether something is legal or doable or moral." Seems like a perfectly nice guy who is interested in accountability and checks and balances to power right?

Russell Vought wrote the policy agenda Project 2025. This was a plan for consolidating government power within the executive branch. One particularly important element of this was writing the legal rationale for invoking the Insurrection Act.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9qwez9zz7jo
What is the Insurrection Act? BBC explainer.

The long and short of it is military on the streets of the US in case of emergency basically.

This is an interview with Trump published in Time Magazine from a week ago.

https://time.com/article/2026/10/01/donald-trump-2026-interview/
When pressed on the limits of his power, Trump left himself ample room: He would not rule out declaring a national emergency or invoking the Insurrection Act around the midterms, nor promise to refrain from bringing wrecking balls to the Kennedy Center without congressional approval. “I’m not committing to anything,” he says. “We’re going to see how it plays out in court.”

This is one reason so many people are getting antsy about his shout out to Vought.

And get this, a couple of weeks ago, the Trump administration just refused to invite international election monitors from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe to observe the election for first time since 1975, instead saying it preferred to deploy it's own monitors from the Justice Department. The two significant countries who also do this are Russia and Belarus.

There's also another very odd story going around in the NYT today. James Blair and Chris LaCivita, who are two Trump Political Advisors have been paid hundreds of thousands of dollars to "give election advice" to the pro-Russia authoritarian government of Republika Srpska. Now not everyone will understand this so I'll explain a bit. The Republican Srpska is the province of Bosnia and Herzegovina which has a mainly Serbian population. It's heavily pro Russia and wants to become part of Serbia. It's where Srebrenica is located. This is highly politically sensitive and potentially destabilising at a time when there's already growing concerns in Bosnia about growing separatism. Especially in the context of a Trump administration which is seeking to avoid scrutiny from European observers!

I mean this is all normal for a healthy functioning democracy isn't it?

Meanwhile

A State of Emergency has just been declared for Florida. As of this morning we are looking at an almost certain chance of 'Hurricane Isaias' forming apparently. The path predicted is to make landfall somewhere between New Orleans, LA and Panama City Beach, FL on Friday. Shell and Chrevon are evacuating none essential staff from their oil rigs in the threatened area.

Nothing to worry about here.

Out of hurricane season too. We were there this time last year, and we had frost and ice in the mornings. It was weird. Iguanas were falling out of the trees.

Hurricane season runs to Nov 30th.

Oh does it? Been oct/nov about 10 times but have always managed to miss it. It has usually been September or early October, so all we’ve seen is fallen branches at the most. Been lucky then. Must be scary anyway.

Can't get this whole plague business out of my head.
It doesn't add up at all.
Even if it was bog standard pneumonic plague it wouldn't happen like this. The lab workers wouldn't just be mooching around without ppe, drop a test tube of plague, then just think " Oh bugger, better get the dustpan and brush". They wouldn't then just go home and think, "really I can't be arsed with all that antibiotic crap"
Either the Russians are lying or they want us to think they're lying.
Either,something unholy has been unleashed and they're lying.
Or, nothing happened and they're lying as a distraction or to test the response.
These are the only two possible conclusions I can come to.

If they say it’s basic plague it’s something worse.

Much like a cheating partner. They will feed crumbs of what they have to and underplay what really happened / is in this case.

Mother of the woman who died of plague is angry with Russian authorities. It would take quite something for her to speak out in such a way that it can be reported in the west.

Mum of plague scientist who died in 'lab test tube accident' claims Russian officials 'let my daughter die'

”Reports in Russian state media suggested Daria had broken a test tube, and it could have led to her infection and the potential spread of a highly dangerous disease from an anti-plague laboratory where she worked.
“I don’t want to read nasty things about my child. I know the truth,” said Svetlana. “I find myself fending off foolish acquaintances who actually believed all that.
“The smart ones, of course, didn’t believe it. Not even all medical professionals realise that it’s impossible to break the test tube —even if you hurl it against a wall.
“Only an amateur would say something like that. Even hypothetically, it’s simply impossible to spill or break it. They are so heavily protected.”

Forgive the repeated post; I posted it on the old thread by mistake.

My biggest issue, as someone who needs daily meds, is sourcing a buffer against supply disruption. (my GP won't prescribe more than monthly.)
Has anyone any experience of importing prescription meds into the UK?
Or any ideas about reputable companies?
I understand you can import a small amount for personal use, with a copy of your prescription, but also that customs can/invariably do charge huge fees for opening and inspecting the shipment.
Coupled with the large initial cost and expensive shipping, this is likely to be a very expensive matter… but peace of mind would be good.

My family member has the same challenge - psychiatric medicine, a managed taper off would take six months, yet they can only get a prescription for a month at a time. The consequences of an uncertain/insecure supply are not pleasant to think about. I have so far failed to devise a response.

Not very ethical.

However could you happen to lose a strip so need to ring up desperate for an early order. Dog ate them, left them on holiday. Someone accidentally threw them out.

I’ve done that before but only with contraception so not sure how well it would work with drugs that are held tightly.

But surely people do have emergencies where they need it earlier because they have genuinely lost / misplaced some.

Yes I import a prescription medicine. I don't want to say too much here, it's not a psychiatric one though. I cannot get this prescribed in the UK even though I need it (as do quite a lot of other people). It's very much a case of find people who can recommend a source, because you don't want to be scammed, nor do you want to get medicine that is dangerous, or maybe is a weak version of what you need and so ineffective. This will also depend on what type of medicine it is.

I'm also aware that at any time my source can dry up (it has done) then I have to re-source it again. I always have recommendations first though. It does of course cost more than a UK prescription would do! That's another down side. I have not had mine opened by customs over the several years I've been buying it.

Another thought could you also get a private prescription if moneys not an issue in that sense or would they also share with your normal gp.

If you can get private then use a legit online pharmacy the one I use asks if I give permission to share and I always tick no.

Thanks for the responses.
I'll try a private provider in the UK first, really don’t want them to involve my GP, as it might prevent me getting extra meds..or else I might try a US company I have found.

(I tried taking my meds every other day, to see if I could cope and build up a buffer, but a recent health MOT noted the deterioration, so that's a no go. It's heart/blood pressure stuff, btw)

Oh my goodness shs is very brave !