Another post:
The on-site cries that kerosene underground tanks have run dry and that supply from wholesalers has been physically cut off are evidence that the apocalyptic paralysis of the petroleum product supply chain has reached the terminal capillaries.
And the fact that kerosene (for heating and civilian use) has become so depleted means that the situation for diesel fuel (logistics, construction, agriculture) and heavy fuel oil (shipping, factories, thermal power generation, facility horticulture)—which are adjacent fractions in crude oil refining—is likely plunging into an urgent triage at a level severe enough to stop the heart of industry.
Oil refining is the process of heating a single substance, crude oil, and separating it by boiling point differences through distillation.
LPG・Naphtha・Gasoline (low-boiling fractions)
Kerosene・Jet Fuel (intermediate fractions)
Diesel (the fraction just below that)
Heavy Fuel Oil・Asphalt (the heaviest residual oil)
There are chemical engineering limits to pinpointing production increases for kerosene alone.
The fact that kerosene supply has halted and wholesalers' tanks are empty means that crude oil itself isn't reaching the source refineries, or that domestic refinery operating rates are declining.
In other words, behind the scenes of kerosene depletion at sites, the same intermediate fraction diesel is evaporating just as much as the heavy fuel oil pooling at the bottom.
Diesel is the very bloodstream of the economy, powering over 90% of Japan's domestic logistics via truck transport, as well as construction machinery, tractors, and fishing boat auxiliary engines.
If diesel is squeezed at the wholesale stage, long-haul trucks and local delivery networks will be forced into thinned-out operations or outright shutdowns.
Passing the stage where fare hikes can cover it, shortages emerge where "even at the pump, fuel rationing prevents a full tank" or "no physical fuel exists for long hauls," severing the delivery networks for food and daily goods themselves.
In Hokkaido or Tohoku winters, diesel depletion means snowplows can't run.
If main road snow removal stops, even if kerosene or food stockpiles exist somewhere, delivering them becomes impossible.
Heavy fuel oil (A-heavy and C-heavy) usually stays out of general consumers' sight, but it's the lifeline for the massive, heavy industrial backbone supporting society's foundation.
Winter greenhouse cultivation in Hokkaido and cold regions (tomatoes, strawberries, flowers, vegetables), as well as heating for poultry and pig barns, relies on vast A-heavy oil boilers for warmth.
If heavy fuel oil distribution stops, one night's chill will wipe out crops in greenhouses and freeze livestock to death.
This isn't mere temporary production cuts—it's farm bankruptcies and the irreversible destruction of the food base for next year and beyond.
Industrial sites dependent on heavy fuel oil boilers for steam or heat—food processing, metal heat treatment, papermaking, dry cleaning—will shut down operations immediately without fuel.
Diesel power plants on remote islands and coastal tankers and cargo ships transporting domestic goods run on heavy fuel oil.
If this gets squeezed, supply lines connecting the mainland to islands, ports to ports, will be severed.
In a phase where physical oil is simply insufficient, what oil majors and the government do in secret is a ruthless triage of "who to save, who to abandon."
Top priority: Self-Defense Forces, police, fire departments, core hospitals, critical infrastructure
Second tier: Major infrastructure firms, JR, large logistics companies
Last in line, to be cut: Local small trucking firms, general farms, rural kerosene delivery outfits, and ordinary households in cold regions
The fact that "oil isn't reaching terminal kerosene delivery outfits" or "wholesale tanks are empty" shows that peripheral rural areas and civilian sectors are already starting to be discarded as the tail end of the rationing queue.
It's not that prices are too high to buy—it's that even piling up cash, no physical product exists—a reality that's the harshest man-made disaster born from Middle East chokepoints, refinery infrastructure damage, and do-nothing politics.
Of course people are raising hell.
If voices aren't raised, the paper-test whiz kids at the center and elites in safe zones will hunker down through winter, using a single document claiming rationing plans are properly managed as a shield to cover up the freezing reality on the ground.
The only way to shatter this deception is to keep confronting them with the raw reality from the front lines.
Now if the ultra disaster prepared Japanese are starting to freak out, that's sobering.