Today's by-election... how do you think it will go?

[Westfacing]

A few months back according to the media it was Reform's for the taking - now it's a three-way bet between Labour, Greens and Reform

I can say, as a Christian, that in this country at least even the most conservative Evangelical Christians don’t have any interest in making homosexuality illegal. It isn't on their radar. They are no more looking to ban gay relationships than extramarital sex.

I very much doubt that as many as 50% of British Muslims want to ban gay relationships either.

What? Tory MPs?

Yes we agree.

So being concerned about what International courts may well call a "Genocide" makes people "Idiots"

75k people have died, 100s of '000 seriously injured, 90% of infrastructure destroyed, almost no medical or educational facilities.. all ok for the pro Israeli lobby inc yourself...

Of course it doesn’t make people idiots. It is entirely appropriate for people to be concerned about all sorts of things going on around the world.

But why is it a matter for a local by election? Why does Narendra Modi’s face need to be on campaign material for a Manchester by-election? It doesn’t, unless you’re resorting to sectarian politics and using foreign grievances to secure a seat as a UK MP. Its vote chasing and it’s not what politics should be about.

The Greens were barely out campaigning on trans rights and legalising prostitution with the Muslim communities because they know they were less likely to vote for them if they did.

As Your Party has shown, a coalition of woke progressives and socially conservative Muslims will almost always be impossible to hold in the long term.

The Greens are useful idiots to Muslim voters on a few voter issues at best but the unity Hannah Spencer wistfully spoke of yesterday is not realistic.

When is it appropriate to make your voice heard about international politics, then, other than at an election? Your point would hold were it a local election (bin collections, potholes etc.) but this one elected someone to the body that literally decides whether we go to war, whether we send arms to Israel etc. The fact it happened mid-term is neither here nor there.

There's nothing in the point that the Greens focussed on some policies more than others. If the Tories are campaigning in Surrey, they'll focus on vat on school fees. If they're in Kent, they'll focus on raising the income tax threshold. You're just describing how things work.

And, again, you're assuming that Muslims are a hive mind. Many care about Gaza, some don't. There does seem to be a homophobia problem (which isn't unique to Islam) but I've personally worked with gay Muslims. Fuck, we had a Muslim LGBT campaigner do a talk in my work the other week.

It's the (frankly a bit racist) othering that's part of the problem here.

There's obviously an ideological clash between religious conservatism (of any stripe) and some of the Green's policies. But:

(i) Plenty of Muslims (and all the ones I know) don't hold hard line views on homosexuality etc. They're not a monolith.

(ii) To the extent that there is a 'Muslim interest', there's lots of alignment with the Greens. Foreign policy; cultural commitment to charity; economic policy (of. course immigrant communities tend to be poorer) etc etc.

(iii) I think it's pretty legitimate to vote tactically for a party you don't fully align with, to keep out people who are openly hostile to your existence, don't you? I would much rather a party I disagree with on (eg.) trans rights, than one that would expel my parents from the country, or persecute my kids. Wouldn't you?

Sorry, useful idiots my arse. This was basically decent humans who don't coalesce around everything coming together so a party with fascists among its ranks wasn't elected, in a community towards which that party was openly hostile.

You've no idea how the world works.

And I’m sure you have ALL the ideas about how the world works. Maybe spend your weekend being a little less condescending.

I’m not assuming Muslims are a hive mind, it’s clear from the campaign messages that the Greens very much believe this to be so.

There is currently a ceasefire in Gaza. The fact that many voters in Denton and Gorton and across the country seem more concerned about civilian deaths that had occurred rather than a greater number of civilian deaths that are occurring in Sudan, or continued Uighur labour camps and ethnic cleansing of Afghan refugees in Pakistan, must mean that there is another greater motivation other than concern about civilian casualties, Labour camps and ethic cleansing.

Personally I am convinced that this greater motivating factor whether conscious or not is anti semitism but simply relabelled as "anti Zionism" for image reasons.

No, it's because the war in Gaza is being prosecuted with by our ally, with our support, using our weapons. Against other muslims.

And the attack by Israel against Gazan civilians (a majority children, a majority female) is ongoing, despite the ceasefire. This is widely reported.

Voters were concerned about Reform's anti immigration rhetoric and worries about Labour's plans on settlement status made the Green Party the tactical vote.

United against racism

Do all the people on this thread frothing about the 'Muslim vote' really not understand that if you are a candidate in a diverse constituency with a large Muslim population, then it isn't smart to go on about the evils of immigration and rant about how having a British passport doesn't make you British? Matt Goodwin shot himself in the foot, Reform shot itself in the foot by parachuting him in and frankly, anyone making excuses for that level of stupidity in a political party needs to take a long hard look at themselves.

Thats a straw man argument, and a very poorly put together argument at that. Maybe some research on how tactical voting works, how areas are targeted, how people vote in council elections half way through a parliament to show their disdain for the party in charge.

Telling people what to do with their weekend in the manner you did, was very condesneding

Does a concern on immigration automatically equal racism?

Equally does a concern on the Gaza conflict automatically equal anti semitism?

United against anti semitism (or anti Zionism as it's now been relabelled).

No, of course not - to all of those.

But the fact is that Reform's rhetoric is landing badly enough with a sufficient portion of the electorate that they are tactically voting in order to keep them out. That is a problem for Reform.

In left voting areas their swing would still be wanted by any party. A safe seat for 100 years and Wales - both previously very Labour. The test will be the local elections.

I think the real test will be the next general election. Local elections are famous for protest votes after all. Yes, Reform will do well - but that only means 3 years for Reform councils to continue showing themselves up for the incompetent lazy grifters they have been so far. It'll be helpful for the electorate to see what they would be getting.

And of course any party would want such a swing towards them - ca va sans dire.

Left voting areas are unlikely to vote Reform as a protest vote.

Since you quoted my response to someone else I have no idea what argument it is of mine you’re shooting down.

But congratulations on being equally as condescending.

Of course that’s what I posted.

The key by elections such as Wales and G&D were solidly left already. Which is why the local elections will be a separate indication for them.

Are you hoping for Reform victories?

Sorry I am unclear on what you want other than not Labour

I agree it is a fact that Reform's rhetoric is landing badly with a sufficient portion of the electorate. What concerns me about Reform is that their policies are significantly underfunded and would cause a fiscal collapse.

That said Green Party policies concerns me much more than Reform's and they would cause a fiscal collapse way worse and way quicker than anything Reform would.

As I previously stated in terms of managing the economy rating from worst to best I would say:
Green Party
Reform
Labour
Conservatives

I have deliberately left out the LibDems because I have no idea what their economic policies are or indeed what any of their policies are.

It’s to be hoped that the G&D win shines a spotlight on the Greens’ policies. I don’t disagree with all of them, but it is their economic policy (or lack thereof) which concerns me the most.