To be read with a lot of salt, but what the grown ups should be looking at
The two results suggest a strong likelihood of tactical voting linked to higher turnout, assuming that some additional voters in Set 2 were motivated by a desire to prevent a Reform UK victory.
In Set 1, turnout was relatively low at 35%, and the vote opposing Reform was fragmented across several parties. Liberal Democrats and Labour each held roughly a quarter of the vote, while the Greens also had a significant share. Reform therefore competed in a divided field where anti-Reform voters were spread across multiple options.
In Set 2, turnout increased substantially to 47.5%, representing roughly a one-third rise in participation. At the same time, the voting pattern changed dramatically. The Green Party surged to over 40% of the vote, while Liberal Democrat support almost disappeared and Labour declined despite the larger electorate. Reform increased its vote share significantly but still finished second.
This pattern is consistent with vote consolidation behind a perceived strongest challenger. The near collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote during a higher-turnout election is particularly notable; when participation rises but a party’s support falls sharply, it often indicates supporters switching tactically rather than staying home. A large proportion of previous Liberal Democrat voters likely moved to the Greens, who appear to have emerged as the most viable anti-Reform candidate locally.
Some Labour voters may also have voted tactically for the Greens, though Labour retained a substantial base. Conservative voters appear to have split between abstention and movement toward Reform, contributing to Reform’s increased share.
The additional voters generated by higher turnout likely strengthened both sides: Reform mobilised supporters, while many new or returning voters backed the candidate most likely to defeat Reform.
Overall, the evidence suggests that increased turnout combined with tactical coordination significantly concentrated the anti-Reform vote behind the Greens, transforming a previously fragmented contest into a two-candidate race.