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Ukraine Invasion: Part 60

1000 replies

MagicFox · 14/01/2026 12:28

We have got to thread 60. So many thanks as always to regular contributors and to those providing updates. For the 60th time, Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

**
Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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LlttledrummergirI · 15/02/2026 12:24

Kyiv Post,

  • Volodymyr Zelensky has arrived at the Munich Security Conference’s β€œUkrainian House.”
Meetings scheduled for today include talks with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, American senators, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev. Video credit: Channel 24
  • Zelensky admits that he is feeling pressure from Trump amid ongoing discussions over ending the war.
Responding to a question from Christiane Amanpour β€” β€œAre you feeling the pressure from Trump?” β€” Zelensky replied: β€œA little bit.”
  • Witkoff and Kushner will take part in the Ukraine talks in Geneva on February 17, Rubio said.
  • β€œI see the comparisons. They say the United States held elections during the Civil War under Lincoln. But how can that be compared to us? Our people are under missiles. This is not just a land war β€” we are under ballistic attacks. Give us a ceasefire,” Zelensky said, commenting on the issue of elections in Ukraine.
  • We can also give a ceasefire for Russians if they will do elections in Russia β€” Zelensky
  • β€œPutin may consider himself a tsar, but he is a slave to this war,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference.
He reiterated that the Russian leader has no intention of ending the war. While Putin is currently focused on Ukraine, Zelensky warned that the conflict could later expand and directly threaten European countries. The Ukrainian president again stressed the need for concrete security guarantees β€œboth for Ukraine and for Europe,” adding: β€œAnd we clearly know what these guarantees must include.” Other statements by Volodymyr Zelensky in Munich: β–ͺ️Ukraine’s air defense relies on European support β€” Europe is paying for our ability to stop ballistic strikes. β–ͺ️The longer the war lasts, the more dangerous Putin’s evolution becomes. β–ͺ️It is unreasonable to keep an army like Ukraine’s outside NATO. But let that be your decision β€” not Putin’s. β–ͺ️The cost of one meter of land for the Russian army is 156 soldiers. β–ͺ️Every Russian shadow fleet tanker is a floating wallet. β–ͺ️Too often, Americans speak about the need for concessions β€” concessions from Ukraine, not from Russia. β–ͺοΈβ€œWe can also declare a ceasefire for Russians if they hold elections in Russia.” β–ͺ️At the same time, he noted that Ukraine would be ready to hold elections provided there is a two-month ceasefire. β–ͺ️Zelensky also stressed the urgent need for missiles for Patriot, NASAMS and IRIS-T air defense systems. Together with partners, Ukraine is preparing an energy support plan and additional missile supplies to strengthen the country by February 24. Photo: Ukrinform
  • β€œAnd even one Viktor may think about expanding his belly instead of strengthening his army to prevent Russian tanks from returning to the streets of Budapest,” Zelensky said, in an apparent reference to Viktor OrbΓ‘n.
Later, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor OrbΓ‘n responded to Zelensky: β€œThis debate is not about me, and it is not about you. It is about the future of Hungary, Ukraine, and Europe. This is precisely why you cannot become a member of the European Union.”
  • Ukrainian freestyle skiing has reached the decisive stage of the Winter Games. Kateryna Kotsar successfully passed the qualification round in the big air discipline, finishing among the world’s top 12 athletes.
Photo: Ski Federation of Ukraine
  • Detectives from Ukraine’s anti-corruption agency detained former Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko while he was attempting to cross the state border.
notimagain · 15/02/2026 16:00

I hate to continually seem glass half empty but here we go again...another weekend grump about important things not being done quickly...or "you want it when..???😯

..."the delay comes as the (UK) government dithers over spending.....:

(Never fear though, the UK will deploy it's aircraft carrier to reinforce Greenland.....)

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/15/welsh-munitions-factory-delay-bae-systems-glascoed-delay-shells-ukraine

MissConductUS · 15/02/2026 16:13

notimagain · 15/02/2026 16:00

I hate to continually seem glass half empty but here we go again...another weekend grump about important things not being done quickly...or "you want it when..???😯

..."the delay comes as the (UK) government dithers over spending.....:

(Never fear though, the UK will deploy it's aircraft carrier to reinforce Greenland.....)

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2026/feb/15/welsh-munitions-factory-delay-bae-systems-glascoed-delay-shells-ukraine

While the dithering over defense spending is clearly bad news, the reason for the delay in opening the munitions plant is better - they decided to double the capacity. The article discusses the number of 155mm artillery shells it will produce. I hope that's not the only munition it will be capable of making. Typically, with modern controls, these plants can produce a variety of rounds, ranging from 80mm mortar shells to 155mm.

Sending HMS Prince of Wales to Greenland is a bit of a head scratcher, at least for an old ground pounder like me. What's the threat?

The government really does need to get its thumbs out and make some unpleasant spending decisions.

notimagain · 15/02/2026 16:20

Sending HMS Prince of Wales to Greenland is a bit of a head scratcher, at least for an old ground pounder like me. What's the threat?

The cynics (who? me?) suspect the deployment is either an attempt by the PM to look statesman like and so counter a threat in Westminster or an attempt to look like leading the coalition of whatever in Europe in the hope of a gig in Brussels after he loses the London day job...

The government really does need to get its thumbs out and make some unpleasant spending decisions.

Oh they do but that can will continue to get kicked down the road for reasons various.

MissConductUS · 15/02/2026 16:58

or an attempt to look like leading the coalition of whatever in Europe in the hope of a gig in Brussels after he loses the London day job...

Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I'm surprised that this hasn't already put an end to his day job.

www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/starmer-sparked-witch-hunt-of-british-troops-says-johnny-mercer-p7lbkt7wf

notimagain · 15/02/2026 17:10

MissConductUS · 15/02/2026 16:58

or an attempt to look like leading the coalition of whatever in Europe in the hope of a gig in Brussels after he loses the London day job...

Not that I have a dog in this fight, but I'm surprised that this hasn't already put an end to his day job.

www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/starmer-sparked-witch-hunt-of-british-troops-says-johnny-mercer-p7lbkt7wf

I'm afraid that's an example of the cultural difference UK vs. US....

Not being a fan of serving members of HM Forces and even veterans is a vote winner in the UK with a large portion of the electorate and many in parliament.

I'm not saying people should get away with murder but some of what has gone on does seem to have lacked objectivity, and the PM has links to some of that.

MissConductUS · 15/02/2026 17:26

Given that the entire British Army would fit in Wembley Stadium, it's not that surprising. Soldiers are an endangered species in Britain.

You cannot apply normal rules for criminal prosecution to actions taken by soldiers in active combat, under approved rules of engagement. The very idea is madness. The military has its own code of justice and procedures for addressing criminal behavior.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 15:25

Updates somewhat delayed due to half term excursion! Will update on an hour or two!

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 16:56

Live:Ukraine

⚑️ If Ukraine's military forces are to be limited in size, then Russia's forces must also be limited. Where Russia has caused damage to Ukraine, it must pay. No amnesty for war crimes; return of deported Ukrainian children. This is truly the minimum Russia must agree to if peace is its goal β€” EU Chief Diplomat Kaja Kallas at the Munich Security Conference.

She also stated that Russia "is not a superpower": today its economy is in ruins. It is disconnecting from European energy markets, and its own citizens are fleeing the country.

⚑️ Orban stated that Hungary should fear the EU, not Putin

⚑️ Zelenskyy stated that the world has already made the greatest compromise regarding Russia, as Putin and his entourage remain at large.

He also said that Trump proposed concluding an armistice and temporarily freezing the war.

Ukraine agreed to an unconditional ceasefire, but Putin rejected it, he added.

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡±Polish President Karol Nawrocki stated that the country must follow the path of creating its own nuclear weapons due to the threat from Russia.

Nawrocki says he is a "great supporter of Poland joining a nuclear project" because the country is "on the brink of an armed conflict" and understands how aggressive Russia's stance is.

He emphasized that he supports strengthening Poland's security "even on the basis of a nuclear potential" but does not know if it will happen at all β€” Poland is a signatory to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

β–ͺ️ Before this, Bloomberg, citing sources, wrote that European countries are discussing the creation of their own nuclear defense system for the first time since the end of the Cold War, as the USA is no longer a reliable military partner.

⚑️ Trump has taken strong steps β€” he introduced sanctions against Lukoil. He can impose them against the entire Russian energy sector and send such a signal to the Europeans.

The Europeans have done much, but they have yet to introduce sanctions against Russian nuclear energy, against Rosatom, against specific individuals, their relatives, and children living in Europe and the United States, who study at European universities and own real estate in the USA.

β€” Volodymyr Zelenskyy in an interview with Politico.

⚑️ Heat and electricity are missing in some districts of Bryansk, Russia after a UAV attack.

This was stated by the Governor of the Bryansk region. Earlier, he wrote that 170 drones were allegedly destroyed over the region within 12 hours.

⚑️ The Ukrainian delegation has departed for Geneva for a new round of negotiations with Russia and the USA, reported the Head of the Office of the President Kyrylo Budanov.

He added that on the way, the delegation "will discuss the lessons of our history and seek the right conclusions," as "Ukraine's interests must be protected."

β–ͺ️Trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the USA, and the Russian Federation will take place in Geneva on February 17β€”18.

⚑️ Overnight, Russians launched six missiles of various types and 62 drones at Ukraine. Air defense shot down two "Zircon" missiles and 52 UAVs, the Air Force reports.

Nine drones and a missile hit 8 locations, and debris fell in two other places.

Late in the evening, the Sumy region was under a Russian attack β€” two women were injured in two communities, and houses and civilian cars were damaged.

During the night, Russians struck the Dnipropetrovsk region almost 10 times with artillery and drones, and in the Chernihiv region, a drone hit a residential building β€” there were no casualties.

⚑️ A 21 year old refugee from Ukraine, Kateryna Tovmash, and her boyfriend were killed in the USA. The incident occurred on February 14 in the state of North Carolina.

The suspect in the murder is the Ukrainian woman's ex boyfriend β€” 25 year old Caleb Hayden Fosno.

As the brother of the deceased shared, overnight, Fosno arrived in North Carolina from the state of Ohio, broke into the house of Kateryna's family, and shot his ex girlfriend along with her boyfriend, who was a serviceman. The man has already been detained.

Kateryna Tovmash was originally from Bila Tserkva. She had lived with her family in the USA for about two years, having moved there due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

β–ͺ️This is already the second murder of Ukrainian female refugees in North Carolina in the last six months. In August 2025, Iryna Zarutska was killed at a light rail station in the city of Charlotte.

⚑️ A residential district has been built in North Korea for the families of soldiers who died in the war against Ukraine.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived for the opening with his daughter. In his speech, he said that these houses should enable families to "take pride in their sons and husbands and live happily."
In recent months, the DPRK has held several more public events to honor soldiers killed during the "overseas military operation."

Notably, a new memorial complex with sculptures of soldiers was opened in Pyongyang.

β–ͺ️ In 2024, North Korea sent about 14,000 of its soldiers to fight against Ukraine on Russia's side. According to South Korean, Ukrainian, and Western sources, more than 6,000 of them have already died.

❗️Russia is using former "Wagner PMC" recruiters to organize sabotage in Europe. They involve economically vulnerable people in NATO countries in arson and provocations, Financial Times writes.

After the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the "Wagner" network did not disappear but became a tool of the GRU and FSB. Due to the mass expulsion of diplomats and the lack of career agents in the EU, Moscow increasingly acts through such intermediaries.

For example, in late 2023, accounts linked to "Wagner" recruited British citizens who set fire to a warehouse in London. The main perpetrator was sentenced to 23 years in prison.

European intelligence says that Russians have significantly expanded their network of "expendable" agents across Europe. However, what Russia gains in scale and cheapness through intermediaries, it loses in professionalism and conspiracy. So far, most attacks have been successfully thwarted.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡¦πŸ‡―πŸ‡΅Ukraine has received a $690 million grant from Japan and Canada. The money will be used for pensions and social programs, specifically for utility subsidies.

This is the first part from Japan and the final part from Canada within the G7 mechanism with a total volume of $50 billion.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 17:07

United 24 Media:

πŸ”Ή β€œWe must stop Putin. We must strengthen our deterrence capabilities. But we must do it in a coordinated and focused way so that we remain in control of the situation,” said Spanish Prime Minister Pedro SΓ‘nchez.

β€œLet us create a real European army β€” not in 10 years, but now. Spain will contribute all the necessary resources.

Let us strengthen the multilateral system by reforming and reinforcing the institutions that, despite their shortcomings, have preserved peace in the West for decades.

And let us invest in the values of solidarity, empathy, and cooperation that have brought us this far, because the rearmament the world needs most is moral rearmament,” SΓ‘nchez said in Munich.

πŸ‡ͺπŸ‡Ί EU leaders are not yet ready to name a specific date for Ukraine’s accession, Latvian President Edgars RinkΔ“vičs said at the Munich Security Conference, Suspilne reports.

He noted that there is currently no consensus among EU leaders on setting a clear timeline for Ukraine’s membership in the European Union.

At the same time, RinkΔ“vičs stressed that Latvia supports Ukraine’s accession as soon as possible. According to him, the timing is also linked to potential agreements on ending the war started by Russia.

β€œWhen I spoke with many EU heads of state and government, I felt that at the moment there is no readiness to name a date. From our point of view, we want Ukraine to become part of the EU as soon as possible,” the Latvian president said.

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland wants to have its own nuclear weapons, Polsat News reports.

Polish President Karol Nawrocki said the country should consider developing its own nuclear weapons, arguing that Poland is β€œon the brink of armed conflict.”

β€œThis path, with full respect for international norms, is the one we should follow. We must move in this direction so that we can begin the necessary work. We are a country on the brink of armed conflict. It is clear how aggressive and imperial Russia’s stance is toward Poland,” he said.

🫠 EU member states are not yet ready to name a specific date for Ukraine’s accession, said Kaja Kallas.

According to the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Albania and Montenegro have also been on the accession list for a long time.

β€œI believe there is a priority and an urgent need to move forward and demonstrate that Ukraine is part of Europe,” she said.

πŸ”Έ At Munich Security Conference, Ukraine was the center of attention just days before a new round of peace talks. Throughout the conference, President Zelenskyy held numerous meetings, noting that their results would soon be reflected in new support packages to bolster Ukraine’s defense against Russia. He emphasized that the strongest response to Russian aggression remains unbreakable European unity.

⚑️ 90% of Ukrainians oppose holding elections during the war, President Zelenskyy said.

β€œWe need security for this. We need a ceasefire β€” maybe not the end of the war, but at least a ceasefire or security guarantees. Under such circumstances, the law would need to be changed, and our parliament can do that, I hope. But it is telling that 90% of Ukrainians are against elections. If anyone is interested in public opinion, the vast majority oppose it because they understand how dangerous it would be to hold elections now, during the war and under shelling,” the president said.

He added that it remains unclear how service members and the 8 million Ukrainians currently abroad would be able to vote during the war.

πŸ”Ή In a recent interview with Politico, President Zelenskyy underscored the urgent need for tougher sanctions, noting that many Russians who deserve to be blacklisted still enjoy freedom in Europe and the US while flouting democratic values. He insisted that instead of benefiting from Western liberties, these individuals should be sent back to the country they represent.

πŸ”Έ Russia is becoming increasingly dependent on foreign mercenaries due to heavy losses at the front, said British Defense Secretary John Healey.

According to Bloomberg, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov told European partners that over the past two months, Ukrainian forces have inflicted greater losses on Russia than the Kremlin has been able to replenish.

As a result, Russia is expanding recruitment of so-called β€œvolunteers” from India, Pakistan, Nepal, Cuba, Nigeria, and Senegal. Many are reportedly lured with job offers and then effectively forced to the front.

Healey also cited a figure of about 17,000 North Korean troops sent by Pyongyang to fight on Russia’s side.

At the same time, Moscow is avoiding a new large-scale mobilization, fearing a repeat of 2022, when the call-up of hundreds of thousands of reservists triggered a mass exodus and sharp public discontent.

πŸ”Ή The Geneva talks will cover a broader range of issues than those held in Abu Dhabi, including territorial matters, said Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

Other statements:

▫️ Medinsky remains the head of the Russian delegation on Ukraine. He did not take part in the Abu Dhabi rounds because security issues were discussed there.

▫️ The Russian delegation at the upcoming Geneva talks will be expanded. In addition to Medinsky, Galuzin, Kostyukov, and others will participate.

▫️ Dmitriev will also take part in the Geneva talks, but he is working on a separate track.

πŸ”Έ Former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg admitted that the major mistake was failing to provide more support to Ukraine earlier.

β€œWe should have started in 2014.

If we had done that, I believe Ukrainians would control more of their territory today. We might even have prevented the full-scale invasion if we had armed and trained them in the years between 2014 and the invasion in 2022,” he said.

πŸ”Ή Czech President Petr Pavel: β€œWhat we probably need in Europe is what I would call more of a Scandinavian spirit. Russia is a weak country with a lot of nuclear weapons, and we should approach it accordingly.”

πŸ”Έ Russian forces continue to target healthcare facilities in Kherson. Today, one of the hospitals was again struck by enemy attacks, the Kherson Regional Military Administration reported.

β€œThe building’s facade was damaged, windows were shattered, and offices, as well as the heating and water supply systems, were affected.

In addition, two medical workers were injured in a drone strike during the day. They are receiving the necessary assistance.”

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡Έ President Zelenskyy discussed with US senators the possibility of using frozen Russian assets to purchase Patriot missiles.

He thanked Senators Richard Blumenthal and Sheldon Whitehouse for their strong bipartisan support and efforts toward peace. Before the meeting, the senators met with children whom Ukraine had managed to return from Russia.

The president said he sees no effective tools to influence Russia other than pressure.

β€œThere is an important sanctions bill currently in the Senate, and we expect it to work. I also informed them about the constant Russian attacks on our people and, in particular, on American businesses. It is absolutely right that Russian money should be used to protect against this terror. We discussed the prospects of using frozen Russian assets to purchase Patriot missiles,” he said.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 17:11

Kyiv Independent:

These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Feb. 16, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 17:17

Kyiv Independent:

⚑️Russia revives election-day truce offer, proposes UN rule for Ukraine.

Russia is ready to halt strikes on Ukraine for a single day of voting, Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said in a Feb. 15 interview with the state-controlled news agency TASS, saying President Vladimir Putin's earlier proposal to pause strikes on election day "remains valid."

⚑️Ukrainian drone attack targets multiple Russian oblasts, Bryansk reportedly left largely without electricity.

Russian officials reported a large-scale drone attack targeting multiple regions on Feb. 15, including Moscow, Bryansk, and Belgorod Oblasts.

⚑️'Air defense is a daily necessity' β€” Zelensky says additional aid packages expected soon following return from Munich.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Feb. 15 that Kyiv expects to receive additional aid packages, primarily air defense support, in the near-term following talks held at the Munich Security Conference.

"There were many meetings, and most importantly – there will be new support packages for Ukraine. The key priority is missiles for air defense, for protection against ballistic missiles," Zelensky said in his evening address.

⚑'Mass obstruction' β€” Draft officers injured in Odesa following confrontation with 'civilian group.'

Multiple enlistment officers were hospitalized after a "group of civilians" allegedly carried out an attack on the personnel in Odesa on Feb. 15, the Odesa Oblast Regional Recruitment Center reported.

⚑Russian attacks on Sumy Oblast injure 4, damage 'medical infrastructure.'

Sumy Oblast Governor Oleh Hryhoriv reported that a Russian drone targeted unspecified "medical infrastructure" in the city of Sumy overnight on Feb. 14-15, causing damage to the site.

⚑️Ex-energy minister charged in Ukraine's biggest corruption case.

Herman Halushchenko, Ukraine's former energy minister, was charged of money laundering and involvement in a criminal group as part of the country's major corruption scandal, the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) announced on Feb. 16.

In Germany, Ukrainian veteran's role in Nord Stream attack tests wartime law

A former Ukrainian officer, Serhii Kuznietsov, spends his days in near-total isolation at Hamburg's detention center. He is accused by Germany of destroying Russia's Nord Stream gas pipelines months after the start of the all-out war.

Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets and Ukrainian lawyers have raised concerns over the conditions Kuznietsov is facing: restrictions on mobile calls, neglect of his vegan dietary needs, limited outdoor exercise, and lack of winter footwear.

⚑️Over 1,500 apartment buildings remain without heating in Kyiv after Russian attacks, local authorities say.

Two districts on the east bank of the Dnipro River were the most affected, leaving 1,100 residential buildings without heating, Kateryna Pop, a spokesperson for the Kyiv City Military Administration, said.

⚑️Ukrainian forces hit several 'important' Russian military targets in 3 regions, General Staff says.

The strikes targeted areas where Moscow had concentrated its troops, along with a Russian communications hub and a drone control center, the report read.

⚑️Ukrainian veteran with disability injured in car explosion in Odesa, marking 2nd such incident in 10 days.

The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has classified the car bombing as a terrorist attack and opened a criminal investigation, the agency said.

⚑️ Russia scales up offensive from north of Pokrovsk, Ukrainian military says.

The 7th Corps report comes as Ukraine clings to its last positions in Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in eastern Donetsk Oblast, both of which have mostly been occupied by Russia, Emil Kastehelmi, a military analyst with the Black Bird Group, told the Kyiv Independent.

⚑️Croatia rejects transporting Russian oil to Hungary, Slovakia as flows via Ukraine halted.

"A barrel bought from Russia may appear cheaper to some countries, but helps fund war and attacks on Ukrainian people. It’s time to stop that war profiteering," Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar said.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 16/02/2026 17:29

Kyiv Post:

⚑️ Ukraine’s former Energy Minister attempted to flee the country but was detained by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau while trying to cross the border.

⚑️ β€˜What Do You Mean β€˜Refusal’? Move Forward’ – The intercepted recording illustrates how Russian field commanders are under intense pressure to demonstrate compliance with orders and report results to their superiors as quickly as possible.

⚑️ β€œ90% of Ukrainians oppose holding elections now,” President Volodymyr Zelensky said.

He stressed that elections require either the end of the war or at least a ceasefire and security guarantees, which would also require legal changes by parliament.

Zelensky added that if President Trump secures a two- or three-month ceasefire agreement with Vladimir Putin, Ukraine would hold elections.

⚑️ Rubio says Russia is losing up to 8,000 troops weekly, while Britain warns mounting losses are forcing the Kremlin to recruit foreign fighters to sustain its war in Ukraine.

⚑️ Record-low temperatures along the 1,200-kilometre front line have fallen to their coldest levels of Russia’s four-year full-scale war β€” freezing batteries and complicating the use of drones relied on by both sides.

⚑️ At the Munich Security Conference, California Governor Gavin Newsom questioned whether Ukraine can rely on the current US administration, after US Secretary of State Rubio largely avoided mentioning the war in his keynote address.

In an interview with Kyiv Post, Newsom said the administration’s approach risks prioritizing headline-grabbing deals over sustained support for Ukraine, even as the war grinds on and Russia shows little sign of compromise.

β€œI want to acknowledge the desire that is sincere of Trump to get a peace deal. But the nature of how they’ve gone about it, where they initially pulled the rug out from under the Ukrainian people in an effort to reach out to Putin, clearly has not worked.”

β€œYou’re dealing with an impossible partner in Putin,” Newsom warned. β€œThat requires consistent, strong support for the Ukrainian people that is expressed over a long period of time in order to create the conditions, from my perspective, for a peace deal.”

⚑️ Munich Security Conference hears stark warning: With unpredictable Washington and a shifting world order, Ukraine can survive only if Europe stands united and acts fast.

⚑️ Russia is facing a growing oil glut as storage facilities fill up and exports slow sharply, particularly to India, raising the risk of deeper production cuts and further pressure on the Kremlin’s budget.

⚑️ More than $7.4 million, €2.4 million and 1.3 million Swiss francs were allegedly transferred to accounts linked to the family of former Ukraine’s Energy Minister Herman Halushchenko.

⚑️ Ukrainian forces struck several Russian military targets, including troop concentration areas, a communications hub and a drone command post overnight, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Monday.

⚑️ Recruiters and propagandists linked to Russia’s Wagner Group are playing a key role in a Kremlin-organized sabotage campaign across Europe.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/02/2026 17:56

I cannot imagine this sentence having been written pre-Trump:

"Before this, Bloomberg, citing sources, wrote that European countries are discussing the creation of their own nuclear defense system for the first time since the end of the Cold War, as the USA is no longer a reliable military partner."
(My emphasis.)

It seems to me tragic that the country I regarded, as a child, as the source of the desirable and the fount of all that was good, the world's protector against the dark (OK, so I was a bit naive, as you tend to be at seven), has sunk so low.

blueshoes · 16/02/2026 18:19

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-15-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. The Kremlin continues to discuss future elections in Ukraine to advance its false claim that the current Ukrainian government is illegitimate and insists on means of controlling Ukraine’s politics.
  2. The Kremlin continues to signal that it will reject any election result that does not produce such a pro-Russia government in Ukraine.
  3. Long-term, meaningful US security guarantees for Ukraine must precede a war termination agreement to prevent the Kremlin from following through on its stated intent to reject such guarantees after Ukraine has committed to ceding territory.
  4. General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov continues to aggrandize Russian seizures of small villages and fields to influence ongoing negotiations and push the West and Ukraine to give in to Russian territorial demands.
  5. Russian gains continue to move at a footpace and do not portend the collapse of the Ukrainian lines.
  6. Recent Ukrainian tactical counterattacks have reportedly liberated multiple small settlements along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.
  7. Russia is reportedly testing a stratospheric communications system as an alternative to Starlink, which some Russian milbloggers have already dismissed as an inadequate replacement.
  8. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and in the Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole directions.
MissConductUS · 16/02/2026 19:47

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/02/2026 17:56

I cannot imagine this sentence having been written pre-Trump:

"Before this, Bloomberg, citing sources, wrote that European countries are discussing the creation of their own nuclear defense system for the first time since the end of the Cold War, as the USA is no longer a reliable military partner."
(My emphasis.)

It seems to me tragic that the country I regarded, as a child, as the source of the desirable and the fount of all that was good, the world's protector against the dark (OK, so I was a bit naive, as you tend to be at seven), has sunk so low.

This was all foretold in 2011, but nobody in Europe wanted to listen. Gates could hardly have been clearer.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-speech-by-robert-gates-on-the-future-of-nato/

A brief excerpt:

In the past, I’ve worried openly about NATO turning into a two-tiered alliance: Between members who specialize in β€œsoft’ humanitarian, development, peacekeeping, and talking tasks, and those conducting the β€œhard” combat missions. Between those willing and able to pay the price and bear the burdens of alliance commitments, and those who enjoy the benefits of NATO membership – be they security guarantees or headquarters billets – but don’t want to share the risks and the costs. This is no longer a hypothetical worry. We are there today. And it is unacceptable.

Part of this predicament stems from a lack of will, much of it from a lack of resources in an era of austerity. For all but a handful of allies, defense budgets – in absolute terms, as a share of economic output – have been chronically starved for adequate funding for a long time, with the shortfalls compounding on themselves each year.

With respect to Europe, for the better part of six decades there has been relatively little doubt or debate in the United States about the value and necessity of the transatlantic alliance. The benefits of a Europe whole, prosperous and free after being twice devastated by wars requiring American intervention was self evident. Thus, for most of the Cold War U.S. governments could justify defense investments and costly forward bases that made up roughly 50 percent of all NATO military spending. But some two decades after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. share of NATO defense spending has now risen to more than 75 percent – at a time when politically painful budget and benefit cuts are being considered at home.

The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress – and in the American body politic writ large – to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense. Nations apparently willing and eager for American taxpayers to assume the growing security burden left by reductions in European defense budgets.

Indeed, if current trends in the decline of European defense capabilities are not halted and reversed, Future U.S. political leaders– those for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was for me – may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.

Text of Speech by Robert Gates on the Future of NATO

From the U.S. Department of Defense:Β  β€œReflections on the status and future of the transatlantic alliance” as delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert M. Gates, Brussels, Belgium, Friday, June 10, 2011. Thank you, Mr. Secretary General, Jaap, for that...

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-speech-by-robert-gates-on-the-future-of-nato/

blueshoes · 17/02/2026 02:30

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-16-2026/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian officials are unlikely to deviate from their original war demands during the upcoming February 17 to 18 trilateral US-Ukrainian-Russian talks in Geneva, Switzerland.
  2. Russia may try to exploit another temporary moratorium on strikes against energy infrastructure to falsely claim that Russia is making a concession.
  3. Russia appears to be investing in centralized incubators for drone technology and is setting up bespoke roles and units to support specific drone capability development efforts. These drone capability development efforts include supporting drone units’ ability to conduct tactical tasks that support Russia’s battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign, as well as drone-based air defense.
  4. The Kremlin appears to be adapting its tactics to conduct sabotage attacks in Europe.
  5. At least one Ukrainian FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile did not cause damage to Russia’s Kapustin Yar launch site in Astrakhan Oblast in January 2025.
  6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area. Russian forces recently advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and near Pokrovsk.
PerkingFaintly · 17/02/2026 10:24

Well it's very interesting that in 2011 Robert Gates claimed that "the U.S. share of NATO defense spending has now risen to more than 75 percent".

Because the US's actual share of NATO funding around that time was 22% to 25%.

That's per a 2012 report from the US Library of Congress's Congressional Research Service:
NATO Common Funds Burdensharing: Background and Current Issues
: https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30150.html#_Toc317064371

Gates must be adding other things into his figure.

Perhaps he has included the US's wars of choice in Afghanistan and Iraq, for which other members of NATO provided support. These were US wars and not for the benefit of European countries (and indeed have caused us large and lasting harm).

NATO Common Funds Burdensharing: Background and Current Issues

For decades, Congress has maintained an interest in burdensharing arrangements with allies, particularly with those of the North...

https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30150.html#_Toc317064371

PerkingFaintly · 17/02/2026 10:30

In fact the same report goes on to say:

β€œNATO has had to postpone many long-term defense investment requirements, focusing instead on requirements for Active operations and Missions (notably Afghanistan).” The Alliance Global Hawk unmanned reconnaissance aircraft being used in Afghanistan is one such priority project.
[...]
According to the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), the focus on new NATO missions and the resultant redirection of NSIP activities have been relatively advantageous for the United States. Among other benefits, a change made in May 1993 to the β€œprogram’s funding criteria for facilities construction and restoration all but eliminates NATO facility funding for the European allies but continues full support for U.S. requirements at European bases.” NSIP also helps fund U.S. storage facilities in Europe, as well as U.S.-based facilities for American reinforcement forces assigned to NATO. DOD has noted that the United States has benefitted from NATO infrastructure support for several military operations, including the 1986 air strike on Libya, Desert Storm, Provide Comfort, Deny Flight, peacekeeping activities in the Balkans, as well as military operations in Afghanistan and training in Iraq. Finally, the Pentagon notes that U.S. companies have been successful in bidding on NSIP contracts.
[...]
The U.S. Department of Defense notes that β€œthe highest Alliance priority [for the program] is to support on-going military operations in Afghanistan, the Balkans, and Iraq.” Defense officials note further that NSIP pays for projects that would otherwise be paid for by the United States alone, or be cancelled for lack of funds. They emphasize that β€œU.S. credibility, as well as the ability for NATO to make payments to U.S. contractors for NATO-awarded projects and urgently needed U.S. operational support facilities, is directly related to the [U.S. Defense] Department’s ability to secure appropriations that will satisfy its prorated share of NATO contributions.”

PerkingFaintly · 17/02/2026 10:55

US peacekeeping assistance in the Balkans actually was for the benefit of Europe, as well as benefiting the US in terms of European stability.

As for the rest, well it looks like Gates wants to have things all ways.

Other NATO countries will help the US pay for its wars in blood and treasure.

Then we'll be told it's unfair we're not paying more for the US's wars – whereas if we hadn't got involved to support the US he'd have no ground to stand on.

Oh, and we have to sit here being gaslit that the US's military adventures are somehow for the benefit of Europe. I think potentially one could try to make an argument that action in Afghanistan was at least intended to have a side-effect of benefit to Europe, even if that didn't necessarily work out. The 2003–2011 US war in Iraq was never even intended to benefit other NATO countries; and the ongoing harms to Europe from the fall-out of that war are too extensive to list here.

MissConductUS · 17/02/2026 10:56

I'm sure that Gates arrived at those figures by looking at the US share of total defense spending. As to Iraq and Afghanistan, what other NATO nations spent participating in those operations was certainly included in the totals.

One reason the spending disparity was topical in 2011 was that Europe ran out of munitions very quickly during the brief campaign in Libya.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-runs-short-on-some-munitions-in-libya/

Europe is only now trying to address that same problem of inadequate munitions stockpiles, 15 years later.

And no matter how you want to parse the figures, the US still outspends the rest of NATO combined on defense.

https://fullfact.org/world/us-nato-contributions/

According to NATO figures published last year, NATO countries between them are estimated to have spent a total of $1.404 trillion on defence in 2025 (this figure is based on 2021 prices and exchange rates). US spending accounted for a majority (60%) of this totalβ€”so not only did the US spend more than any other NATO country, it spent more than all the other NATO countries combined.

His central point that European defense spending declined steadily and substantially after the end of the Cold War is correct, and left the bulk of the burden for the conventional defense of Europe on the U.S. That has been destabilizing for the alliance, as Gates predicted.

NATO runs short on some munitions in Libya

From Karen DeYoung and Greg Jaffe, the Washington Post:Β  Less than a month into the Libyan conflict, NATO is running short of precision bombs , highlighting the limitations of Britain, France and other European countries in sustaining even a relatively...

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-runs-short-on-some-munitions-in-libya/

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/02/2026 10:59

Live:Ukraine

πŸ‡­πŸ‡·Croatia refused to transport Russian oil through its pipeline for Hungary and Slovakia.

This request was voiced on February 15 by Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto after a meeting with Slovak Economy Minister Denisa Sakova. They sent a joint letter to Croatia, stating that "the security of a country's energy supply should never be an ideological issue."

Croatian Economy Minister Ante Susnjar responded that the Adria pipeline is ready, so no EU country has any technical excuses left to remain tied to Russian oil.

"A barrel bought from Russia may seem cheaper to some countries, but it helps finance the war and attacks on the Ukrainian people. It is time to put an end to this war profiteering," he emphasized.

Susnjar added that Croatia would not allow the fuel supply to Central Europe to be jeopardized, and the country would help solve this problem within the framework of EU legislation and OFAC rules.

⚑️ Czech President Petr Pavel stated that reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine in the short term is unlikely due to Russia's position.

"History teaches us that negotiations can only be successful when both sides are in a relatively advantageous position. If that is not the case, the side that is in an advantageous position will always feel the desire to continue the conflict rather than end it," he said.

⚑️ The Ukrainian delegation has arrived in Geneva, reported the Secretary of the NSDC Rustem Umerov.

Tomorrow and the day after tomorrow, trilateral negotiations between Ukraine, the USA, and the Russian Federation will take place there. Umerov added that the agenda has already been agreed upon, and the team is ready for work.

⚑️ Putin is not interested in peace. Therefore, we must provide military aid: Tomahawk missiles, interceptors for Patriot, more F-16s, drone production, and a whole range of necessary weaponry β€” US Senator from the Democratic Party Richard Blumenthal.

European Pravda reports that during a press conference in Kyiv, he also emphasized the need for a sanctions bill that "will create devastating economic pressure for Putin to force him to the negotiating table."

Blumenthal stated that Russia has opened a hunt for American companies in Ukraine, but assured that the USA will continue to do business here.

"We will be as resilient as the people of Ukraine. But Americans should understand that companies here β€” including famous brands of American business β€” have become targets of deliberate, repeated, and relentless attacks by Russia. And such actions should cause even more outrage than we are seeing now," he added.

πŸ‡ΈπŸ‡ͺπŸ‡©πŸ‡°Sweden and Denmark will transfer air defense systems worth €246 million to Ukraine.

According to the Swedish Minister of Defense, Stockholm will finance almost €200 million for the purchase of Tridon air defense systems developed by BAE Systems Bofors, while Denmark will contribute about €46 million.

Russians attacked Ukraine with 29 missiles and 396 drones; air defense shot down 392 targets.

Here is what is known about the consequences:

πŸ”΄ Odesa. Two people were injured as a result of a night attack by Russian drones. Several fires broke out. Additionally, debris damaged an apartment on the 22nd floor of a high-rise building.

πŸ”΄ Sumy Region. In the Kyrykivka community, a 68 year old woman was killed due to a Russian attack. Her family β€” a 42 year old son, a 40 year old daughter-in-law, and their two sons, aged 7 and 15 β€” sustained injuries.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported that overall, Russians attacked 12 regions overnight; 9 people are known to be injured, including children. In Odesa, tens of thousands of people remain without heat and water.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/02/2026 12:35

United 24 Media:

⚑️ The Russian delegation to the Geneva talks will be expanded to around 20 people. Visas for all participants have already been approved, a source told the Russian propaganda agency TASS.

β€œThe Russian delegation is heading to Geneva with clear instructions to act within the framework of the Anchorage understanding,” said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov.

🀬 In Kherson, Russian forces attacked rescuers again while they were responding to the aftermath of a previous strike, the State Emergency Service reported.

A passenger car caught fire after a Russian UAV dropped explosives. When rescuers arrived and began extinguishing the blaze, Russia launched a second attack.

A fire truck was damaged. The rescuers were not injured.

⚑️ A barrel of Russian oil may seem cheaper to some countries, but it finances the war and attacks on Ukrainians. This practice of profiting from the war must be stopped, said Croatian Economy Minister Ante Šuőnjar.

Speaking on behalf of Croatia, he stated that the country had refused to supply Hungary and Slovakia with Russian oil through the Adria pipeline.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ₯Š The Ukrainian national team won 36 medals at the European MMA Championship.

Ukrainian athletes finished first in the team standings among juniors, boys, and youth, and placed fourth among adults.

In total, they claimed 12 gold, 12 silver, and 12 bronze medals.

πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦πŸ₯‡ Ukrainian judoka Yakiv Hammo became the champion of the European Open 2026.

Competing in the over 100 kg category, he confidently went the full tournament distance and won gold.

This is the first gold medal for the Ukrainian national team at this tournament and the fourth European Open gold of his career.

πŸŽ₯πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ The Ukrainian film anthology β€œWar Through the Eyes of Animals,” featuring Sean Penn, is being released in the United States.

The film brings together several short stories that portray the war in Ukraine through the experiences of people and animals.

Oscar-winning actor and director Sean Penn, who actively supports Ukraine, appeared in one of the episodes for a symbolic fee of $1.

The anthology will now be available to a broad international audience across various platforms in the United States.

⚑️ Russian forces attacked Dnipro. A fire broke out in one of the city’s districts. An administrative building and cars were damaged.

Odesa was also hit. An infrastructure facility and civilian buildings were damaged. In one district, a fire erupted on the upper floors of a residential building. In another, a store and a service station were damaged. Two people were injured.

⚑️ The Ukrainian Armed Forces liberated 201 square kilometers of territory last week, taking advantage of Russia’s loss of access to Starlink satellite internet terminals at the front, according to the ISW.

Analysts say the liberated area is nearly equal to the territory Russia captured in all of December and is the largest gain since June 2023.

Ukraine regained control of settlements along the Yanchur and Haichur rivers in the Oleksandrivka and Huliaypole directions.

β€œThus, we can state that over the past week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed, if not to completely stop the Russian offensive in the Huliaypole and Zaporizhzhia directions, then in fact to reduce it to a tactical minimum, and even then only in some relatively narrow areas. Moreover, as a result of these counterattacks, in some sectors the Armed Forces of Ukraine pushed back the enemy’s advanced units, in some cases by 9–9.5 km,” wrote military observer Kostiantyn Mashovets.

❗️❗️All 24 cruise missiles were shot down overnight.

β–ͺ️ 0/4 – Iskander-M ballistic missiles;
β–ͺ️ 20/20 – Kh-101;
β–ͺ️ 4/4 – Iskander-K;
β–ͺ️ 1/1 – Kh-59/69;
β–ͺ️ 367/396 – Shahed, Gerbera, Italmas, and other UAV types.

⚑️ China’s Russian oil imports are set to rise for a third consecutive month in February, reaching a new record high, as independent refiners snapped up cargoes at deep discounts after India sharply reduced purchases β€” Reuters.

Russian oil supplies to China are expected to reach 2.07 million barrels per day in February, up from 1.7 million barrels per day in January, according to preliminary estimates by Vortexa Analytics.

Imports in February amounted to 2.083 million barrels per day, compared to 1.718 million barrels per day in January, according to preliminary data from Kpler.

Since November, China has replaced India as Moscow’s top seaborne customer, as Western sanctions over the war in Ukraine and pressure to strike a trade deal with the United States forced New Delhi to cut Russian oil imports to a two-year low in December. According to Kpler, Russian crude imports to India are estimated to fall to 1.159 million barrels per day in February.

This pushed Russian crude prices $9–$11 per barrel below the January–February ICE Brent benchmark for deliveries to China β€” the lowest level in years for Urals, which is loaded at European ports and typically shipped to India over shorter distances than to China.

Urals, along with other export grades such as Sokol and Varandey, has been added to regular shipments of Russia’s flagship ESPO blend, exported from the Far Eastern port of Kozmino, which is closer to China, creating strong competition with Iranian supplies.

China’s independent refiners, known as β€œdummies,” are the world’s largest buyers of oil from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela, all of which are under U.S. sanctions.

Uncertainty since January over whether the United States would launch military strikes on Iran if nuclear talks fail has dampened purchases by Chinese β€œdummies” and traders, said Emma Li, an analyst at Vortexa in China.

β€œFor dummies, Russian oil now appears more secure, as there are concerns about loading Iranian oil in the event of a military confrontation,” Li said.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/02/2026 12:45

Kyiv Independent:

⚑️ Lithuania warns against 'hollow' Article 5-like guarantees for Ukraine, urges real solutions.

Dismissing any approximations to Article 5 as mere "rhetorical expressions," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys named financial support for Ukraine's military or future EU membership as more realistic guarantees.

⚑️Zelensky warns of new Russian strikes on Ukraine as Geneva peace talks resume.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said Feb. 16 that Russia is preparing new large-scale attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure as Kyiv's negotiating team arrived in Geneva for another round of peace talks with the United States and Russia.

⚑️Drones strike multiple Russian regions, sparking major fire at oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai.

The Ilsky oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, which supplies fuel to Russian troops, processes 6.42 million tons of oil annually, according to Ukraine's General Staff.

⚑️ These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Feb. 17, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 60
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 17/02/2026 12:50

Kyiv Post:

πŸ”΄ Zelensky has announced sanctions on 10 Russian athletes whom Kyiv says have actively supported Russia’s war against Ukraine.

β€œWhen Ukrainians at the Olympics are forbidden to even mention the victims of Russian aggression, that is clearly a global rollback of justice. We will restore justice.”

πŸ”΄ Russia blasted Odesa’s energy infrastructure in a devastating strike just hours before peace talks in Switzerland.

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