Mumsnetters voting Reform

[Illjustplayostrich]

Mumsnet mothers have always leaned Labour. Now Reform is ahead

https://www.thetimes.com/article/dbd39087-465c-4587-9eaa-292606ffb775?shareToken=a99daa444e8bc0f9444cca2bf01f3851

I'm slightly startled by this. I'm a centrist, slightly more right leaning perhaps but frankly I'm open to any government who will get a firm grip on the public finances and go about growing the economy in a sustainable way. My impression of this site is that it's definitely more left leaning and and Reform enthusiasts tend to get shouted down. Personally, I think we should be talking about them a lot more as it's highly likely they will form part of the next government.

My impression is that they are promising the earth but don't have people with the necessary skill set to make that happen. I really worry that they will get voted in and find out that they can't fix all the problems within 18 months, leading to yet more disillusionment amongst voters.

Most of the polling I have seen reported in recent weeks has put the Tories a couple of % above Labour.

I remain firmly of the view that my vote is for "None of the Above".

It’s not a massive uptick in relation to the trend over the years since 2009. It’s about the same after a brief dip.

I do not share your enthusiasm. Nationalism is very destructive. I understand the emotional element of not wanting Reform to win. But I do not think a resolution is found in more division, even if it’s a clear tribe.

Obv I’m a nation state person. I don’t like nationalism in any part of the UK.

It's just classic left wingism - someone else will pay for me.

Actually it was the right who failed to deal with the issues hence the far right shift. Farage was popular way before Labour got elected. Since Brexit really.

Agree

From 4/5 MPs to over 350 in an MRP poll in 18 months under Labour is probably higher than any other party at any point.

This is what I love about anti-populists. You'll vote Plaid...a populist party...to keep Reform out...a party you deride for being populist.
In terms of populist risk to Wales...leaving the UK...versus leaving the ECHR...I know which is the bigger risk to Welsh people, and it isn't Farage.

I don't think Farage is at all popular, and especially not among women. But he is a demagogue with a genius for a pithy plausible soundbite.

But the left have the power to deal with it now. The Conservatives failed but Labour are failing to. If Farage gets it will be Starmer's fault - he has the control and the opportunity and does fuck all with it. It's like Starmer is just an observer on the side line of his own demise.

Are you living in Wales?

There is more evidence that younger women are becoming more left wing. So it may be that age is more relevant than sex in voting patterns. Conversely young men appear to be voting for more right wing parties.

This criticism of Starmer is more appropriate in my view. Domestically he vacillates or leaves it with Reeves. I felt the wheels came off as soon as they both failed to get the welfare cuts through. At that point, you saw massive political weakness. I still don’t see an answer to that issue.

No. Why is that relevant? I know that 60% of the Welsh are employed in their NHS and the public sector more widely.
Once the money taps from London would be switched off after any independence, just how would the new nation survive?

The unqualified rights are already enshrined in the common law (I can’t speak on Scottish law but I’d imagine it’s the same). Statute law could overrule those rights but if that happened the ECHR would be irrelevant: no government legislating in that way would care about the ECHR, in or out.

The Supreme Court has even held that there are constitutional lines, within our system, that no government can cross, irrespective of the sovereignty of parliament.

I’m not doggedly against the UK being a signatory to the convention but I’ve yet to hear a convincing argument for UK or modern day European benefit from it.

I thought someone was going to say that subscription to the ECHR is an important sign of approval of an international rules-based order. I regard that argument as nonsense.

For me, Starmer lost it all over expenses, he promised to be different and be held to a higher standard, yet was shown to be just as willing to feather his own nest as the Tories or Reform are.

Then add in WFA and Farms IHT.

He has never recovered and wont.... he has become a figure of fun and once that happens..... the sooner he goes the better and i said this on the Starmer thread months ago.

Labour have also failed to deliver, be it teacher numbers, roads, dental services... no one expected miracles but they don't even have plans for how they will address many day to day issues affecting people.

Down here, the toll on the Tamar Bridge is a huge local issue, its a very expensive cost as the local hospital is accessed via the bridge.... they would get instant praise if they funded this out of general taxation but they wont, hence all the local Lab MPs are very unpopular.

MN used to be more left leaning when it was smaller. The base is so large now that it is now more likely to be representative of the contry as a whole, which will make it more right leaning.

The UK , well England in particular, has always been a politically conservative country, in a way that some other European countries ( I am thinking of France and Italy here) have not always been in quite the same way. Yes they have an extreme political right wing but the general middle consensus in those countries has in the last century or two has been more left leaning than in England. Maybe to do with the revolutions they had, I'm not sure. Anyway of course MN will be more right wing, as it becomes more representative of the country

I agree with much of what you have posted.

Starmer’s position is untenable, and he now wears a rather haunted look, as if he is merely a passenger to fate, rather than retaining any modicum of control. May will deliver the coup de grace, unless there is another foul-up in the interim, of course…

I think the point about plans is right. Very few expect Labour to be about to turn everything around in 19 months, but they haven't seen started to take the steps to do so, they don't seem to know what to do. You can't turn a oil tanker without touching the steering wheel (or whatever an oil tanker has for steering).

The welfare rollback proved that Starmer doesn't have the teeth to make difficult changes other than pull the easy levers of taxing an ever decreasing pool and ever increasing amount.

There have been so many u turns. We're all waiting for the u turn on mansion taxes for example. It was just a populist policy and soundbite that is hard to actually implement.

Well no. I mean the ECHR is basically a product of the English legal system. But its codification into a treaty means the capacity for political interference is greatly limited. And that is a very good thing imo.

Common law is simply overwritten by statute. I’m not saying it couldn’t be done. I wonder as to the intent and the alleged problem it is intended to solve. Without a clear picture on that, there should be an abundance of caution. Politicians are people who like unfettered power. I have yet to meet one who was not excited by that idea.

A pit of Guardian readers😂should be fine, I expect they're vegans.

He’s famously convivial. The Conservatives used to use him as their charm offensive. Really a remarkable skill he had, to directly tell people that they were completely wrong and they will still be very friendly.

I think the disliking Badenoch thing is a particularly Labour mn thing, and as that’s dwindling those opinions aren’t really indicative.

The thing is, we also see (not all, just to be clear) Reform supporters commenting on social media and plenty of us unfortunately know Reform voters in real life who are racist and have history with far-right groups, so it’s not the full picture to just blame MSM and politicians. Also, I’d be interested to see the evidence of the right-wing media labelling them so. And that, combined with Farage’s failure to clearly deny or even apologise to a whole group of former school peers who had the same experience of being victims to his racist and anti-Semitic abuse, will mean that people are not too keen to engage. Take a look at The Guardian article a pp linked to see how real communities are experiencing Reform.

It’s not the women shouldn’t vote Reform, but it’s why they wouldn’t, which there have been a few posts about - supporting and saying we should forgive their former MP who has a criminal conviction for viciously assault a woman; not a single Reform MP attended a major debate in the commons on violence against women and girls; Trump-style early stage soft language on ‘family ideals’ and abortion limits; praise of Andrew Tate, etc.

Are you in the UK? I noticed an Americanised spelling in one of your earlier posts. Given your first long post about Reform, I’m surprised you’re ‘agnostic’ on them - you said Farage was going to come in with a plan to change and fix everything, but now you’re not completely sure about him. What are your uncertainties?

I suspect that much of the dislike stems from the way she absolutely destroys Starmer during PMQ’s.

She has put in some barnstorming performances.