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What’s happening in Venezuela and what does it mean?

911 replies

theotherfossilsister · 03/01/2026 07:47

I’m confused- has the US gone to war with them? What are the implications if so?

OP posts:
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49
LifeIsTooFlippingShort · 03/01/2026 12:35

A good war always boosts a politicians popularity while it's on. He needs to distract from the Epstein files and the Economy. The Falklands worked wonders for Thatcher.

Booboobagins · 03/01/2026 12:36

I read it was to add a diversion to the release of Jeffrey Epstein dossier.

It's strange the USA taking action against drugs when the CIA was allegedly both controlling unwittingly citizens with drugs and involved in drug cartels. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_drug_trafficking_allegations#:~:text=In%20the%20early%201970s%2C%20Alfred,them%2C%20much%20less%20proof%22.

CIA drug trafficking allegations - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CIA_drug_trafficking_allegations#:~:text=In%20the%20early%201970s%2C%20Alfred,them%2C%20much%20less%20proof%22.

letsallchant · 03/01/2026 12:45

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 12:34

Thanks for this his suggestions are interesting. I like the certainty of his first line and found reasons why it could work in Venezuela useful.

First and foremost, re-democratization is easier to achieve than creating democracy from scratch. Venezuela’s experience with democracy over several decades in the second half of the 20th century left a legacy that strengthens its prospects for a future transition. Unlike many other autocracies, Venezuela also has a successful history of a “pacted transition” to democracy. It’s been done there before. It can be done again.

Second, as political scientist Dankwart Rostow taught us decades ago, countries undergoing a regime change are more likely to consolidate democracy when they do not have deep ethnic or religious cleavages or disputes over borders. Venezuelan society lacks the deep ethno-sectarian divisions or organized minorities seeking territorial independence of a Libya, Syria, or Iraq.

Third, the Venezuelan opposition is united. Democratic opposition movements, especially those operating partially in exile, often suffer from internal divisions, both between leaders, and between those working inside the country and those based outside. Compared to other such movements, Venezuela’s opposition today is very united. That María Corina Machado just won the Nobel Peace Prize has added additional legitimacy to the movement. She is the uncontested leader of Venezuela’s democratic movement today, but in another plus for democracy’s future, this opposition coalition boasts many other strong, charismatic leaders, including especially Leopoldo Lopez, who will play positive, critical leadership roles in a new democratic government.

Adding that this piece praises the Eddie Fishman book Chokepoints: how economic warfare is changing the world. I looked and this is currently 99p on Kindle, for anyone like me interested in some more reading about this. I've just bought it.

Havanananana · 03/01/2026 12:49

bleakmidwintering · 03/01/2026 09:36

Jesus America! What have you become?

Republicans reverting to type. Read about how the legitimate government of Hawaii was overthrown and the island annexed, who the major players were (Republican expansionists) and why they wanted Pearl Harbour - all of which only happened 126 years ago.

Or the American invasion of Grenada in 1983.

EasternEcho · 03/01/2026 12:50

He's after their oil. Plain and simple. "US security interests" is the chatch phrase under which they have given themselves the power to do almost anything, including taking over any country under that pretext, maybe Greenland next, or Canada. What's the world going to do? For decades the rest of the world stood by happily allowing the US to become the most powerful nation in the world with absolutely no checks on its power. Now we reap the consequences watching it go off like a runaway train.

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 12:56

I am not going to cry over the demise of the Maduro regime but this is a very worrying sign of things to come. Iran -another regime that really deserves to go- has already been mentioned as a target. I hope that those regime changes end up benefitting the populations of both countries but the motivations behind the interference are shockingly imperialistic and self-serving. Both things can be true at the same time.
As for what's next on the menu, Greenland is clearly prime real estate.

user233675892 · 03/01/2026 12:58

38thparallel · 03/01/2026 12:27

I honestly don't know, but I would say any military intervention/deposing of a leader has the potential to do that.

Does Maduro have enough supporters to fight against his opponents?

Again, I don't know enough about it to say.

Strength of support or might (who controls the military) may well count for more than volume of support, if that makes sense?

I wonder why the VP is still there. Whether they couldn't get him or he's cooperating? In the case of the latter, I wouldn't imagine he's all that interested in Gonzalez stepping in

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 12:59

EasternStandard · 03/01/2026 12:34

Thanks for this his suggestions are interesting. I like the certainty of his first line and found reasons why it could work in Venezuela useful.

First and foremost, re-democratization is easier to achieve than creating democracy from scratch. Venezuela’s experience with democracy over several decades in the second half of the 20th century left a legacy that strengthens its prospects for a future transition. Unlike many other autocracies, Venezuela also has a successful history of a “pacted transition” to democracy. It’s been done there before. It can be done again.

Second, as political scientist Dankwart Rostow taught us decades ago, countries undergoing a regime change are more likely to consolidate democracy when they do not have deep ethnic or religious cleavages or disputes over borders. Venezuelan society lacks the deep ethno-sectarian divisions or organized minorities seeking territorial independence of a Libya, Syria, or Iraq.

Third, the Venezuelan opposition is united. Democratic opposition movements, especially those operating partially in exile, often suffer from internal divisions, both between leaders, and between those working inside the country and those based outside. Compared to other such movements, Venezuela’s opposition today is very united. That María Corina Machado just won the Nobel Peace Prize has added additional legitimacy to the movement. She is the uncontested leader of Venezuela’s democratic movement today, but in another plus for democracy’s future, this opposition coalition boasts many other strong, charismatic leaders, including especially Leopoldo Lopez, who will play positive, critical leadership roles in a new democratic government.

And a lot of the wealthier opposition to Maduro is exiled in Miami, where there's always been a sizeable Venezuelan community.

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 13:02

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 12:56

I am not going to cry over the demise of the Maduro regime but this is a very worrying sign of things to come. Iran -another regime that really deserves to go- has already been mentioned as a target. I hope that those regime changes end up benefitting the populations of both countries but the motivations behind the interference are shockingly imperialistic and self-serving. Both things can be true at the same time.
As for what's next on the menu, Greenland is clearly prime real estate.

I understand the concern about Greenland but Trump clearly needs a pretext for getting involved ie drugs, nuclear threat etc. What would his reason be for Greenland and how would that fly in Europe with govt in Denmark not exactly being of the same genre as theocracy in Iran or dictatorship of Maduro.

ShesTheAlbatross · 03/01/2026 13:02

Surely at this point (given the US has said no further interventions expected) the military are holding all the power. If they stick with the current gov, then the vice president will stay as the face of power. If they decide to support proper elections (unlikely since they’ve supported Maduro) then that will happen.

I predict military leadership that gives Trump US access to oil in return for being left alone.

user233675892 · 03/01/2026 13:03

ShesTheAlbatross · 03/01/2026 13:02

Surely at this point (given the US has said no further interventions expected) the military are holding all the power. If they stick with the current gov, then the vice president will stay as the face of power. If they decide to support proper elections (unlikely since they’ve supported Maduro) then that will happen.

I predict military leadership that gives Trump US access to oil in return for being left alone.

Sadly, I suspect you're right.

mummymeister · 03/01/2026 13:03

will our useless government actually come out and condemn this. how is this any different from russia and ukraine. its a sovereign country that they have gone into, bombed, kidnapped their leader.

we need to stop pandering to this mad despot. this is really how WW3 is going to start.

USA has absolutely no right to do this.

anyone with a holiday to florida, suggest you cancel it and stop giving money to this economy.

mummymeister · 03/01/2026 13:05

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 13:02

I understand the concern about Greenland but Trump clearly needs a pretext for getting involved ie drugs, nuclear threat etc. What would his reason be for Greenland and how would that fly in Europe with govt in Denmark not exactly being of the same genre as theocracy in Iran or dictatorship of Maduro.

he doesnt need a pretext. he will just make one up. this has nothing to do with drugs. nothing at all. its all about oil. thats all he cares about.

miamo12 · 03/01/2026 13:06

I’m contact with a friend from Caracas at the moment who is really worried about her cousins one is a civil servant working in the presidential palace and no word. It’s so worrying for those living overseas, and she doesn’t understand any more than me why!

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 13:07

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 13:02

I understand the concern about Greenland but Trump clearly needs a pretext for getting involved ie drugs, nuclear threat etc. What would his reason be for Greenland and how would that fly in Europe with govt in Denmark not exactly being of the same genre as theocracy in Iran or dictatorship of Maduro.

He's already said he needs it for national security reasons, that's the reason right there. He clearly doesn't concern himself with international law, Greenland is not part of the EU even though it is attached to the Kingdom of Denmark and I don't think he's too worried about Denmark or even the EU itself (which he openly despises). He will take Greenland, no questions asked. In fact, what's going on right now is also desensitising the American public to unlawful behaviour. It's getting fully normalised. The Venezuelan operation was conducted without Congress approval, so like a covert operation of old, but this time fully in the open and brazenly so. This is all to get everyone used to Trump holding all the power, both at home and abroad.

TheGrinchWasHere · 03/01/2026 13:07

mummymeister · 03/01/2026 13:05

he doesnt need a pretext. he will just make one up. this has nothing to do with drugs. nothing at all. its all about oil. thats all he cares about.

Well he can’t just invade a country and say he wants oil. So what will his reasons be?

TroysMammy · 03/01/2026 13:10

Donald Trump - self styled saviour of the world.

YourAmplePlumPoster · 03/01/2026 13:10

Maduro should have left office on January 10th 2025 but seized power in a coup and the democratically elected President elect Edmundo Gonzalez was forced into exile in Spain. I suspect this will now turn into a full scale military dictatorship terrorising the citizens until they're overthrown. I expect the Guardian and their ilk will contort themselves in all sorts of ways to try and defend a military dictatorship.

Growlybear83 · 03/01/2026 13:13

Surely it’s time for the rest of the world to unite and stop this madman? Now that he’s had the leader of another country kidnapped, maybe that gives the green light to ISIS to kidnap him 😆

ShesTheAlbatross · 03/01/2026 13:13

user233675892 · 03/01/2026 12:58

Again, I don't know enough about it to say.

Strength of support or might (who controls the military) may well count for more than volume of support, if that makes sense?

I wonder why the VP is still there. Whether they couldn't get him or he's cooperating? In the case of the latter, I wouldn't imagine he's all that interested in Gonzalez stepping in

She. The VP is a woman.

PandoraSocks · 03/01/2026 13:16

YourAmplePlumPoster · 03/01/2026 13:10

Maduro should have left office on January 10th 2025 but seized power in a coup and the democratically elected President elect Edmundo Gonzalez was forced into exile in Spain. I suspect this will now turn into a full scale military dictatorship terrorising the citizens until they're overthrown. I expect the Guardian and their ilk will contort themselves in all sorts of ways to try and defend a military dictatorship.

Don't be daft. You can be against Maduro, against a military dictatorship and be against what Trump has done.

user233675892 · 03/01/2026 13:16

ShesTheAlbatross · 03/01/2026 13:13

She. The VP is a woman.

Sorry, yes!

Fleurdeville · 03/01/2026 13:17

@YourAmplePlumPoster

so what is stopping Gonzalez from taking up presidency now?

StandFirm · 03/01/2026 13:18

TroysMammy · 03/01/2026 13:10

Donald Trump - self styled saviour of the world.

In some ways, if both the Maduro regime and the Iranian Mullahs go within the year, it WILL give him huge kudos both in the US and internationally. Longer term, it will of course depend on what follows in both countries. If you look at the chaos that destroyed Iraq post-Saddam, that's precisely what everyone should be worried about. Power abhors a vacuum.
But I think he wants to be a type of 'saviour' figure, not least because he's due to get his arse handed over to him in the mid-terms and he really does not want that.

user233675892 · 03/01/2026 13:19

Fleurdeville · 03/01/2026 13:17

@YourAmplePlumPoster

so what is stopping Gonzalez from taking up presidency now?

That for the moment all the power appears to remain with the current regime. It will be interesting to hear what plans are announced and where the military is in this. As @ShesTheAlbatross points out, a military dictatorship seems like a likely outcome.

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