Thanks for this his suggestions are interesting. I like the certainty of his first line and found reasons why it could work in Venezuela useful.
First and foremost, re-democratization is easier to achieve than creating democracy from scratch. Venezuela’s experience with democracy over several decades in the second half of the 20th century left a legacy that strengthens its prospects for a future transition. Unlike many other autocracies, Venezuela also has a successful history of a “pacted transition” to democracy. It’s been done there before. It can be done again.
Second, as political scientist Dankwart Rostow taught us decades ago, countries undergoing a regime change are more likely to consolidate democracy when they do not have deep ethnic or religious cleavages or disputes over borders. Venezuelan society lacks the deep ethno-sectarian divisions or organized minorities seeking territorial independence of a Libya, Syria, or Iraq.
Third, the Venezuelan opposition is united. Democratic opposition movements, especially those operating partially in exile, often suffer from internal divisions, both between leaders, and between those working inside the country and those based outside. Compared to other such movements, Venezuela’s opposition today is very united. That María Corina Machado just won the Nobel Peace Prize has added additional legitimacy to the movement. She is the uncontested leader of Venezuela’s democratic movement today, but in another plus for democracy’s future, this opposition coalition boasts many other strong, charismatic leaders, including especially Leopoldo Lopez, who will play positive, critical leadership roles in a new democratic government.