Which countries is Russia a threat to?

[Wobblylegs1]

National Service is back on the agenda in Germany and France and on R4 Any Questions this weekend it seemed to be taken for granted that there is a ‘growing threat from Russia’.

Obviously, there is a threat to the old soviet bloc be because Putin sees them as ‘Russian’. Surely he wouldn’t be interested in expanding into Western Europe though? Russia already owns a huge sprawling chunk of land and struggles to sustain its population. Putin is bonkers, but I haven’t seen any suggestion that he has 1930s-style ‘conquer the whole world’ delusions? I don’t really understand what sort of a threat he poses and to what end? Anyone care to share their thoughts?

You’re right, he’s nothing but a lunatic with visions on grandeur, much like me visioning becoming a billionaire and moving to Monaco.

They can’t even conquer Ukraine despite their best efforts so he’s got no chance against the NATO countries and if they decide enough is enough and go for it then he’s fucked!

Yea he has China as an ally but the UK is a massive trade partner with China as I’m sure many other NATO nations are, so as much as they’ll feel a pull to Putins beliefs etc… they aren’t going to scupper their own financial gain and start a war with Europe.

Also the US and UK will stand together if
WW3 were to happen as they always have. They may not always agree but when push comes to shove they have each others backing.

Wouldnt count on the US for anything
Special relationship...my arse!

Agreed. The ‘special relationship’ is long gone and we need to stop kidding ourselves it’s any different. The OP’s post also fails to factor in the nuclear weapons issue, which is one of the chief reasons we haven’t done more for Ukraine practically or militarily.

I don’t really understand what sort of a threat he poses and to what end?

'Action before fatal Novichok poisoning was not enough' - BBC News

Former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia were poisoned with Novichok, prompting the biggest counter terrorism policing investigation in history.

The public health team in Salisbury and Amesbury, Wiltshire, had the daunting task of trying to keep thousands of people safe from an odourless, colourless, military-grade nerve agent which could have been anywhere....

"This was both an attempted murder [and] a murder - a state sponsored assassination attempt on British soil, the first use of a chemical weapon on European soil since World War Two - sufficient to kill thousands of people - and it was deployed by another government against one of their people who had become a citizen that my duty was to protect," said Mr Basu, the then-head of counter terrorism policing in the UK, who has since retired.

I know people in Poland who were terrified when the Ukraine war started because they thought if Russia conquered Ukraine quickly that Putin would invade Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia and then Poland would be next.

As it turned out Russia didn't overrun Ukraine in a matter of weeks as had been predicted but if I were in a country that bordered Russia/Belarus I would have been pretty worried.

If any side uses nuclear then it will be an eye for an eye. They are a threat but use them on a country an that country will retaliate so there are no winners. It’s all bullshit and my balls are bigger than yours. You’ve also got to remember that Trump won’t be in power for more than 3 years so whist he’s pro Putin, it’s unlikely the next president will be.

Regarding the ‘special relationship’ I don’t think the US would get involved for fun but they don’t have many allies with the power and clout of Europe so that’s what will make them allies and Britain will side with Europe so the US will do too

@SaverMaevathat’s not necessarily true. There was a huge amount of concern in Sept 22 about Russia using a tactical nuke and it was made abundantly clear that the response would be highly unlikely to be a nuclear one.

@SaverMaeva

“Also the US and UK will stand together if
WW3 were to happen as they always have. They may not always agree but when push comes to shove they have each others backing.”

I was with you until this… Are you sure? I wouldn’t be.

but it’s almost a mute point because they haven’t used nuclear. No one will know what the reaction will be unless it happens and it likely won’t. If they nuked London for example they won’t let that slide will they. It’s all very well having a threat but if your opponent also has the same treat it becomes pointless.

No I’m not sure, however as big a military power the US is, it still needs allies and places where it can launch its rockets and the like from. It might scream independence but it needs Europe as much as Europe needs it.

Its far from a moot point as (I) Ukraine doesn’t have nuclear weapons and (II) the risk of nuclear escalation has been a major influence on the Western/ NATO response.

I don’t think any countries are at risk from Russia. The fighting areas are eastern Ukraine, which have been Russian speaking and cultured forever. Russia isn’t interested in taking Europe, why would it be? These are hardly stable economies anymore. Europe is on a downward spiral and nobody wants to own that.

I'm from central Europe and we see things less optimistically.

Trump won't just stand down in the end of his term. He will declare some war and use it to cancel elections quoting Ukraine.

EU is under hybrid attacks. Russia, Trump's& Musk's US and China all hate the liberal democracy and EU's ability to set and enforce rules. Brexit was part of that.

They can’t even beat Ukraine one on one so they’d have no chance against the likes of Germany, Italy, France, UK etc… It’s laughable they wouldn’t even try. Yes they could nuke but so could those described. No gain for Russia so why bother. He’s a knob but I don’t think he’s stupid…. Well not in every aspect!

Russia is using people from the the conquered areas of Ukraine to attack the western parts of Ukraine. If they get more land, they will just use more people as disposable troops.

Europe might be on downward spiral, but still the average quality of life is well above Russia's

I think we have to agree to disagree. I think that Russia presents a serious and growing threat in Europe. There is a huge amount of supporting evidence, not least to say their complete lack of interest in the latest stitch up of a peace deal. They want war. They want conflict. They do not care what the cost is.

I think China hate the US more than Europe so I don’t think they’re working together.

I agree with you there but I don’t think they could win. Then would need China, Iran, North Korea on their side but against Europe and the US no chance.

The UK has committed up to £21.8 billion for Ukraine with no public referendum or mandate. This money should have been spent at home. A corrupt third world country on the fringes of Europe. We should never have got involved with them. Zelensky is a supurb showman such that many European leaders have forgotten about the corruption and come to regard him as some sort of saintly figure.

The only country that's ever used nuclear weapons is the USA but they're our ally so don't need to worry about that.

Russia is a threat re online security and we've kind of left ourselves open there - both from information manipulation (which Russians are past masters at) and service attacks on corporations and amenity/utility infrastructure. Also there's a physical threat from their spies bungling around and accidentally poisoning the wrong people.

They're not about to go marching across Europe though. Ukraine is a specific issue.

There's loads of things Russia can do that could fuck us up good and proper - at least for a while. They don't need to involve nuclear weapons or even conventional weapons. As has been mentioned upthread the use of novichok in this country.

But also hacking and old school sabotage of businesses, banking, power plants etc. There's been a fair few disruptive things going on in the last few years that have been thought to be down to Russia or have a suspicion.

Also meddling in politics to undermine the NATO alliance and European interests. People constantly saying on social media that this country is falling apart and close to civil war. They are not paying Reform politicians for nothing.

Sabre rattling also puts doubt into people's heads.

This sort of talk proves my point

@HauntedBungalow put it better than I did

You’re incredibly naive if you think that Russia doesn’t present a significant threat. Maybe not in the traditional military context but certainly they are a massive threat in cyber warfare. Active planning for a massive cyber attack from the likes of Russia is happening. If they attacked the banks, the online payment systems, the power grid or government… All of which are possible and would make life incredibly difficult and uncomfortable here. Modern warfare potentially looks very different. Divide and conquer and bring them down from within.
Just look at what’s going on in the US. Let’s not pretend that Russian influence is having a huge impact on POTUS and his administration. America is on a self destruct path as a direct result. The Russians don’t need to lob bombs at us.

I never said they weren’t a threat, I said they’re not going to try and conquer Europe in the same way they are trying and failing with Ukraine.

We need to be more robust, our technology and IT infrastructures need to be able to withstand hackers so that’s on us to fix and sort. Anyone with two brain cells knows this
and knows Russia is a threat so the government and the like need to up their game