Which countries is Russia a threat to?

[Wobblylegs1]

National Service is back on the agenda in Germany and France and on R4 Any Questions this weekend it seemed to be taken for granted that there is a ‘growing threat from Russia’.

Obviously, there is a threat to the old soviet bloc be because Putin sees them as ‘Russian’. Surely he wouldn’t be interested in expanding into Western Europe though? Russia already owns a huge sprawling chunk of land and struggles to sustain its population. Putin is bonkers, but I haven’t seen any suggestion that he has 1930s-style ‘conquer the whole world’ delusions? I don’t really understand what sort of a threat he poses and to what end? Anyone care to share their thoughts?

No idea I didn’t see it. They’re probably fed up with the same posters going on about bots.

Didn't say he was but that's the idea. Lots of people even on MN seem to think Russia = Socialism= Communism and we will all be singing The Red Flag

You could be right but I don’t think Vance has the same appeal as Trump. It’s like Farage here, Reform wouldn’t be as popular if the leader changed tomorrow. Another example is Boris. The clown like ‘character’ he played served him well. The leaders are bigger than the party and that was Trumps selling point.

If he did get in (Vance) he can cosy up to Russia all he likes but what about China? Becoming good friends with your enemies good friends, so does that make them one big powerhouse? Everyone has their own vested interest. Putin want the Ukraine as he views it as part of Russia, I’m not sure he’d bother about the other countries so much. Perhaps he would but he couldn’t do it alone and I’d hazard a guess China wouldn’t want to get too involved due to their own economic interests in Europe. He hates Britain of course because he’ll see is as a fly in yeh ointment and stopping him taking back what he believes is his so he’ll want to punish and country that doesn’t agree with him.

Whats more likely to happen (and it appears is happening) is that they’ll try to destabilise the west with hacking and the like and that can cause significant economic damage. It’s unlikely we’re going to see Russia planes over our skies anytime soon. You’ve also got to consider that those who are defending their land are likely to defend it better than those who have no direct interest in it, like the Russian soldiers and that’s why it’s taken them three years and they’ve barely taken over Ukraine.

They pose a threat to every country with the exception of China and its immediate allies. China would bite back too hard.

They would be happy to rule over the ashes. Let everyone else fight it out.

Ukraine is, just, surviving because of US air defence systems, take that away and the Russian air force and their drones and missiles will take over Ukraine

Just as a point of order there's quite a lot of non-US air defence kit (including some aircraft) in theatre...a whole mix of European SAM and AAA systems deployed plus some-ex French Air Force Mirages operating in the anti-drone role but I'd agree losing the US component of the AD system would be a major blow.

I thought the US intelligence capability was crucial? And some of the kit.

I don’t think Ukraine can do without it.

We don't know how much of the system is networked/tied together and how but I think it's wrong to think the Ukraine AD system would be completely blind without US input.

The main thing that would bother me might be a loss of Patriot reloads..(ETA because that's the only long range SAM in theatre AFAIK).

There's no doubt a loss of US input would make life much harder for the Ukraine AD system, but I think it's wrong to think without US help Ukraine becomes defenceless.

Lose Patriot and they have no defence against Russian Ballistic missiles, its currently the only ground missile system that can stop them.

Its not certain at all the US will keep selling Europe these weapons to give to Ukraine.

It would mean more than a major blow.

I think Europe/EU needs to stop pussyfooting around Trump, the more we cow tow to him, the more he takes or as one US pundit said of him "Let Trump punch you in the face once & he'll keep doing it"

We need to realise Europe is on its own.

Ok thanks for your insight

@Alexandra2001

"Lose Patriot and they have no defence against Russian Ballistic missiles, its currently the only ground missile system that can stop them"

At long range, yes...at short range there are other systems that may be available and there's certainly talk of ASTER being supplied but no dates...

In any event we know a significant proportion of the incoming ordnance isn't ballistic.

There have been non Patriot SAM and some fighter interceptions against cruise type targets, helicopter engagments and ground fire (both MANPADS and AAA) have supposedly been effective against slower drones.

It's really not all about Patriot, but not having Patriot would be a major blow.

As you say... "no dates" the story of Ukraine again and again.

I'm talking specifically about Ballistic missiles not cruise, drones or helicopters, Russia fires plenty of these at Ukraine's energy and water supply systems.

I'm simply trying to point out we should not start giving Patriot some mystical status, think it is the only option, is infallable and Ukraine will fall without it.

Nobody here knows how well or badly Patriot is performing but we do know that some of the Russian ballistics such as Iskander are hitting targets.

One grim fact is that unfortunately given the way missiles/SAMS work realistically it's impossible to defend every significant target (city, power plant, dam) from attack by intercepting the incoming...doesn't matter what system you use.

If you want to stop the attacks in totality the only answer is to go after the launch sites, associated facilities and the factories..chances of that?

www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/iskander-improved-russian-missile-tests-ukraines-air-defence

every country is at risk

if not from Invasion, from drones, missiles

cyber attacks, espionage

threats to food and fuel supplies

economic meltdown

Just taking on board @notimagain on Ukraine continuing even if US pull out it’s so depressing and awful to think of the lives that will be lost. It’s just gunning through more, Putin won’t stop unless he gets the territory. It’s unbearable.

I am not, just pointing out that the loss of Patriot would be huge and something Ukraine may not come back from unless the Europeans get a move on.

Ukraine needs more of everything, not less or as pp says, Putin will take the lot and that will be on all of us too....

One thing i am happy with is some of the recent tax increases have gone to Ukraine and our own defence, not enough and it should have started under the Tories, not 3 years later.

I’d recommend a podcast Sergei & the Westminster Spy Ring. It covers in detail how the Russians slowly gained influence in the UK - and how Russia Today helped to promote Farage. I read before about lots of things they discussed, but that (including the tactics) was completely new to me.

Russia cannot and is not interested in conquering us of even half as far.

just like they didn’t blow up Nordstream.

sure hacking etc but there will be no physical attempts at invasion.

You mean they don't need an invasion?

Their puppets are being readied and otherwise they can just pose as tourists.

It'll be a lot more than hacking, imagine if that perfume bottle had ended up in a population centre or similar.

They have used Polonium on a Russian in London, influenced the Brexit result.

They had/have the Tories & Reform in the palm of their hand, they don't need to conquer us, to gain considerable influence, imagine a US/Russian alliance that sees Europe as the enemy?

Thats more than possible.

Well yes the Ukraine is getting financial baking, but it would pale in to insignificance if Russia were to attack an allied country for real. The amount of money available would be far more so it’s nothing like Russia fighting half the west

Why would the the US see Europe as the enemy? What would be their rationale be for that?

Just because Russia might not entertain a physical shooting war NATO, Poland or the Baltic States in the near future it does not mean it is not already engaged in an asymmetrical war with 'the West', be it cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns via its bot farms, funding useful idiot/cynical politicians and dissident groups and generally doing its best to undermine democracy and splinter alliances. Their threat to our institutions and way of life is very real. They are like the persistent wasp at a picnic that just will not fuck off. 'We' have begrudgingly put up with all this as we have accepted that it is just what Russia does and it not worth 'poking the bear' over. The invasion of Ukraine has utterly changed that dynamic and quite frankly it is time Europe weaned itself off Uncle Sam's teet and stood up for itself as what we have in Europe in all its imperfect iterations is vastly preferable to most other regions in the world.

Apart from all the other issues already mentioned, a Russian take over/invasion of former Eastern bloc countries would result in mass migration in Europe.
10s of millions of people fleeing. This would massively destabilise Western Europe, the U.K. included.