Which countries is Russia a threat to?

[Wobblylegs1]

National Service is back on the agenda in Germany and France and on R4 Any Questions this weekend it seemed to be taken for granted that there is a ‘growing threat from Russia’.

Obviously, there is a threat to the old soviet bloc be because Putin sees them as ‘Russian’. Surely he wouldn’t be interested in expanding into Western Europe though? Russia already owns a huge sprawling chunk of land and struggles to sustain its population. Putin is bonkers, but I haven’t seen any suggestion that he has 1930s-style ‘conquer the whole world’ delusions? I don’t really understand what sort of a threat he poses and to what end? Anyone care to share their thoughts?

The Baltic states certainly think Russia is a threat to them.

Finland and Sweden do, too. They both applied for membership of NATO in May 2022, just after the invasion of Ukraine. Finland joined in April 2023 and Sweden in March 2024. Remember, Finland had been neutral since the Second World War - and Sweden for 200 years!

Also the US and UK will stand together if
WW3 were to happen as they always have.

Have you met Trump?

A slight tangent, but what interests me about all this is that ideology has practically gone out the window.

I remember "threads" on telly when I was younger, Reagan talking about freedom, the USSR talking about the evils of capitalism and how communism was better.

All gone, now it's just nutters with massive egos and nukes.

Apart from the EU and other western democracies of course. They still talk about freedom, dictatorships bad etc.

Putin, Trump. Xi... they never talk ideology. Xi pays his ideology lip service in his own country of course, but not on the international stage.

No, you won’t see T-72s rolling under Marble Arch, but I can tell you what will happen.

If Putin wins in Ukraine outright, he will do something to test NATO’s resolve. Europe will fracture with the cowards and opportunists siding with Russia, and the rest forming some sort of resistance.

In short, it will be the end both of NATO and of the EU.

This is what a lot of people are overlooking.

The conflict in Ukraine has turned into a an attritional grind for all parties. It's occupying practically all of Russia's deployable military and severely depleting their stocks of ammunition of all types, and it has completely exhausted their reserve armour and motor pool.

If the Ukrainian conflict ends in a peace agreement, Russia will be able to recover their reserves in a few years, and then their focus will turn to Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. Due to the difference in sheer scale, none of the Baltic States will be capable of resisting Russia in the manner Ukraine has, and as for anyone still thinking that NATO will respond en masse to an attack on a Baltic State member, you must be delusional.

Nobody is getting into a hot war with Russia to defend Estonian or Latvian sovereignty, Putin knows this, and it's precisely why he would invade a Baltic State in the first place. It isn't about grabbing territory, it's about the fact it would break NATO and effectively bring about its end as a going concern. The entire precept is mutual defence, and if NATO proves it is not willing to back that precept up when push comes to shove, then it ceases to serve any purpose whatsoever.

It's clear the US would already be reluctant to provide the NATO logistical support that has always previously been relied upon should Russia pick a fight with a minor NATO member along its border. Without that support, even the bigger European NATO members are extremely limited in what they could do to resist or repel a Russian invasion of, for argument's sake, Estonia, so in the meantime the only viable option is to pre-emptively turn the Baltic States into perpetually NATO-occupied fortresses in the first place, and nobody really wants to foot the bill for doing that either, even assuming the Baltic nations agree to the idea, so in reality they are going to be left to the wolves.

Thanks, that’s what I’ve been thinking, but then we (Western Europe) clearly do seem to feel there is a threat, so I was wondering if I’m missing something.

Do you think the arch Brexiteers - Farage, Johnson, Rees-mogg etc were knowingly working in the interests of foreign states then? Or manipulated? Or just conveniently backward minded?

Usually megalomaniac despots and dictators just conquer the one country next to them, the decide that’s enough, and turn their attention to philanthropic projects. Hitler, Stalin, Mussolini, Tojo, Mao, Saddam, …. They all knew when to stop. 🫤

What’s the evidence that they want war with the west?
I can only see evidence that they want to regain some Eastern European nations (but can’t do much about it).

A King ain't satisfied until he rules everything sang Bruce Springsteen and Putin wants to expand Russia. He grew up in Soviet Russia and the KGB. He would like to be Tsar. More land, wealth and to be seen as a strong leader. China isn't an ally it has a huge army right on the Russian border. The old adversary the US has changed it's ideas and for a hungry opportunist now could be the time. New tools such as cybercrime are available to spread fear and cause disruption, no need to invade when you can paralyze an infrastructure and use a nerve agent to bring a town or city to a standstll

What defence is there against this sort of threat?

A frightening prospect. There are indeed a lot of cowards and opportunists.
And all the time, we not only have to deal with Russia, but stupid Trump. What a twat he is.

It’s crazy how not wanting go ‘foot the bill’ is preventing us from defending ourselves, our values and beliefs and allies. I can kind of understand the distain for capitalism when money is - quite literally - the be all and end all.

Well, we already know that at least one of Farage's colleagues was taking bribes from the Russians in order to promote Russian interests, and a number of others are being investigated.

I don't think Johnson was acting in the interests of the Russians, but I don't think he was acting in the interests of the UK either. Indeed, I don't think Boris Johnson ever does anything unless he believes it is in the interests of Boris Johnson.

Rees-Mogg? Who knows.

I'm in Finland - Russia has always been a threat to us. Not a Eastern European country either. And if Russia attacks Finland the UK has given security guarantees so you'd be dragged in too.

Beyond that, Russia is a threat to all Western countries via hybrid warfare.

Vigilance, a new Cold War. Britain has joined Norway in active submarine hunting to prevent damage to undersea cables that carry data. Cyber crime can be committed from anywhere by anyone. Some smart Russian people (or 3rd party) sat in a hotel in Argentina can cause chaos and you can't use an army or missiles against that. Good news is Putin is mortal. All the money in the world can't stop him dying by natural causes (or others!!)

It's got 11 Carrier Strike Groups alongside it's real estate. Doesn't really need anyone else to dominate if required.

The uk isn’t massively important in the military response. NATO is and the US is vital to that.

this isn’t WW2. The EU is far more important to the US. We’ll just get an invite to the summit.

im not concerned about Russia. They’re clearly full of shit, and China is unlikely to step in as they’re not particularly interested either.

He’s a threat because he’s willing to fight and lose a lot if young people and so far Ukraine has very sadly had to send their own young people to oppose.

He doesn’t care if it’s millions. We very much care not to have to oppose. I’m not sure what the answer is, even when he’s gone hopefully the next will just not want the same.

Wasn't Johnson hanging out with the KBG guys son and giving the slip to his security detail in order to party with them at their villa in Tuscany? also elevated him to the HoL against advice

Sorry his name escapes me - owns the Evening Stardard or did at one point

So maybe a balancing act between the Russian economy collapsing/running out of fighting age men and Trump leaving office/Democrats getting their act together

Who knows

They lost 20m holding the eastern line in ww2- it’s in the Russian nature.

Evgeny Lebdev.

A few Reform people are being caught out with a Russian script. Nigel is a fan of Putin of course.

Population of Soviet Union 190 million pre WW2

Population of Russia 2025 143 million

Not so many young lives to throw away today

Interesting book I'm reading at the moment. The author posits a well argued scenario starting with an invasion of Estonia.
Worrying because DS2 is studying there at the moment.