Is Anyone preparing/hunkering down for 'after the budget'

[IsUnemploymentRising]

The news is today seems to be full of headlines such as unemployment is going up, housing markets are softening, budget is make or break.

Lots of people such as Andrew Bailey quoting things like markets could crash due to debt and AI bubble etc

I just don't see how RR or anyone else for that matter can get us out of our current situation without considerable cutbacks and pain.

Raise Taxes - lots of people think this is maxed out now with rich leaving and businesses already hit (thus rising unemployment)

Cut Benefits - will they try this again. If so what will all the people on benefits actually do to live. Will they all get jobs. Is there jobs?

So are you hunkering down?

Me personally I wish they would just get on with it. I hope to move house in next few years and whilst I'm still committed to it I can see another frozen housing market coming where only forced sellers sell and everyone else sits tight.

I'm retired (although not getting any pensions yet as too young) and definately worried about pension values (ie stock markets, bonds etc). It's very difficult to plan when your pensions are dependant on things outwith your control. (not applicable to those with final salary/defined benefit schemes of course)

State pension is a good 14 years away for me (I'm fully paid up) but I worry it will be eroded when I have built it into my calculations for retirement not to mention the freezing of tax brackets which means we are all getting taxed more each year by stealth.

I'm probably in a better position that many to weather the storm as no mortgage or debts and holding cash etc but even then I worry about our currency being worth nothing soon if they go down the route of printing money again.

Am I being overly pesimestic. I mean how are they actually going to get us out of this. For those on benefits (apart from worrying, being scared etc) how will you actually cope if your benefits are cut.

@Papyrophile
I paid taxes all my life. My husband pays taxes.
Ill ask again what you think the “choice” you mentioned above is - what is it?

I agree my generation and the boomer generation had it easier. House prices were lower and although I left uni in a recession at end of eighties I still managed to always get work.

The thing is we can argue amongst ourselves where the cuts should be made (you clearly favour pensions which is your right of course whilst I favour benefits). My logic is that by the time you retire you have a state pension forecast (mine is fully paid up) so they have promised me a pension at 67 and to pull it from me at that age ....there would be no chance to do anything about it would there. The sensible thing to do if they can't afford it going forward would be to phase it out over a long period.
So anyone retiring in next 10 years the current rules stand.
10-20 years your pension is reduced by 10%
20-30 years your pension is reduced by 20% and so on until it becomes nil.
That way the people who are most impacted still have time to do something about it.

Of course I dare say people would demand less tax/NI if this benefit was getting removed and I don't think the goverment can afford it.

You talk of 'punishing' the sick, disabled etc. There is no 'punishment' involved. The decision should be made based on what the country can afford and just now the purse is empty. We can feel as sorry as we want for sick people etc but if there is no money then it does not really help does it.

I guess I feel pensions are based on a long standing goverment/citizen contract where for years you pay in and then you get back a set amount (which you can look up in your own state pension forecast). Benefits surely are more of a moving thing and are not 'promised' years in advance. That's why I think it's more fair to tackle them but of course you can disagree.

To be honest I think what will happen is they will phase out the state pension (and to a degree it's happening already as tax bands are frozen and soon the state pension will be taxable even if that is all you have). They are also phasing it out by raising the pension age so less people claim and for less length of time.

I think they will also cut benefits and move towards a half private NHS.

I understand the point you made about people who work and get benefits and how it pays more to work part-time and get benefits than work full time. It's a complicated system.

However this is all slightly different to what I asked which is are you hunkering down for the budget? Thanks for posting. I appreciate all the different views.

I’ve never been so close to hoping some people lose their limbs and power of speech before today - it’s one car crash away, one sudden development of MND, one incurable but not immediately terminal cancer, one birth that doesn’t go quite right.
Some absolutely disgusting people on this thread - may life treat you as you think

Go back a few pages on this thread to read the words of the person who worked in county social care who referred to the high cost of looking after high need SEMH children. Hundred of thousands of pounds per individual per annum is not uncommon.

I guess I feel pensions are based on a long standing goverment/citizen contract where for years you pay in and then you get back a set amount (which you can look up in your own state pension forecast). Benefits surely are more of a moving thing and are not 'promised' years in advance. That's why I think it's more fair to tackle them but of course you can disagree.

We should have a more European model ie based on earnings vs everyone getting the same.

The majority do not pay anywhere near enough NI for what they take out.

On a familial basis, we / none of us can @beanbaggirs . Individually, I have, but not enough to fund a bottomless pit.

This is beyond the income of most people with a severely disabled child. They probably get benefits as you can’t work with a child who needs a lot of support.

Pausing the triple lock for a decade would save 100 billion? That money could go straight into infrastructure which would hopefully lead to growth.

No, I'm happy to pay more tax in an organised way that means my money goes - along with others' - on public spending. I'm a collectivist for practical as well as moral reasons. I don't mind overpaying taxes on my own but it would be pretty tokenistic since I earn reasonably well but not enough to pay for anything worth having. In summary I do want other people to pay more tax, yes. And I want to myself as part of that.

Just because I am a bit better than some does not mean i don't have concerns.

Policing is not adequate any more and that scares me.

We seem to be trapped between a failing NHS and a private one which is not functioning yet.

They keep changing pension age so it is hard to plan for your future.

They can't lower interest rates because of rising inflation.

The trouble is there are too many people who everyone keeps saying 'should be our concern'. The UK is not a charity. It can't even pay it's current bills without borrowing each month.

If the budget is perceived as 'bad' by the markets then we really are in deep shit. Nobody will want to buy our debt and then the goverment cashflow stops (okay not completely but if they can't borrow............). The interest rate on any we flog as well will go up.

The goverment knows this budget is crucial to get right which is why they have delayed it as long as possible. Thus I wondered what people were doing ahead of it?

Just means test the state pension , this by far biggest benefit outlay. And yes,it is a benefit.

@Papyrophile most people individually haven't though. The whole notion of I've worked and earned my state pension is nonsense.

A state pension of 12k for 20 years is 240k

You would need to earn 50k for 20 years to pay 240k in tax. Most people don't earn 50k & many that do don't earn it for 2 decades.

This is before you even calculate education & health costs.

It wasn't such an issue when the demographics were different, in the 60s we had 5 workers to 1 pensioner, we are not far off 2:1 now. That's the problem.

I put my money into gold and silver, over a year ago...its rocketed and some are up 70%....i am holding them all. not selling.

It's not that people don't feel sorry when things happen to others. However no matter how awful some people's lives are, if the purse is empty, then it's empty.
I use to give alot of money to dog charities. It breaks my heart when I see what some animals go through. However I've had to cut my donations right back cos I can't afford it. I still feel sorry for the animals but I can't afford it.

Nobody seems to realise what happens if the markets perceive this as a bad budget (ie not returning the country to viability). If nobody wants our debt then the goverment cannot refinance as the debt falls due for repayment. Then they will have a huge cash flow problem. Any debt they do manage to flog will be at even higher rates than we are already at.

Arguing about who to feel sorry for or which benefit to cut or house prices are all relevant topics but all of it pales into comparison with the UK being a country that cannot raise finance because the markets decide it's no longer a safe bet.

Yes but the purse isn't empty. People have plenty of money/collateral they just don't want to share.

Yes I'm in Scotland. well spotted!

that has always been my attitude too up to a point however I can't help but feel they have finally run out of chips to cash.

Sorry OP but you’re exactly the sort of person I hope they tax a lot more. Asset rich people hoarding unearned wealth like many of a certain generation need to pay their fair share instead of freezing or increasing income tax which further hurts working people who or already often struggling.

Dh and I are high earners although haven’t been able to build a large amount of assets yet and we’d be happy to pay a bit more tax as long as the burden is also shared across those sitting on large amounts of assets. It’s really galling when working people continue to be taxed to the hilt whilst many older people who’ve benefited from huge house price rises and often inheritances sit in huge houses most of my generation could only dream of affording whilst moaning about losing their winter fuel allowance or having to pay a bit more tax.

Actually the reason I was able to retire at 51 was because my dad worked till he was 80 and had to be forced to retire. He then broke his hip (up a ladder) and died very quickly without needing to go into a care home. I cared for him for a few months then took over caring for my mother.

So yes you are right I get to retire early because my dad worked so terribly long.

However arguing about who is lucky or not lucky is not really the point is it? That's like arguing amongst ourselves while Rome burns.

I am retired but on a very frugal income so making good decisions is still important to me. Thus why I am cutting unnecessary expenses and 'hunkering down'

You were able to retire (very) early because you inherited a large amount of wealth you hadn’t earned.

I agree it’s not about lucky/unlucky but surely you agree that those who can afford to pay more, (which you clearly can since you’re opting not to work when you’re well below state retirement age) should do.

I’m very sorry about your dad and I’m sure he worked very hard but that doesn’t change the fact.

If you're that worried, just go back to work like the rest of us in our 50's.

It's a no-brainer.

You retired too young and unfortunately it probably isn't going to work out.

What's really peeing me off is the interest rates keep dropping, where i was pretty much getting a full wage on the interest on my savings, this has now shrunk so I need to continue to work to top it up.

I am optimistically confident that we have rises on the way though so the rates will rise enough to pay me enough interest again without having to work. It's a fine balance as I don't want to eat into my capital.

Why are you confident? That’s not what the current market forecasts are saying. It will be better for the economy if rates decrease as well do I hope that’s what happens, along with additional wealth taxes so the burden is shared.

these threads always go the same way. inevitably people revert to type and are determined to lay all the economic ills at the door of disabled kids who are already suffering enough thanks v much.
Just look at all the rhetoric about SEN kids bankrupting councils blah blah. Well the government was determined to offload its responsibilities This removal of services from councils hands has led to the rise of ever increasing costs to deliver essential.services via private companies.
Private care homes are charging crazy money to accommodate looked after children and care for the elderly etc etc.
Who would have guessed that companies offering care services were going to be run to make huge profits for the owners and shareholders. What a shocker ! No one saw that coming did they ! No foresight ot long term planning was involved in those decisions just quick.fixes that have lead to huge rises in the social care budget.
Perhaps we could start there to reduce costs instead of sticking the boot in to disabled children and their families.

I'm sorry your child is unwell but this is kind of missing the whole point of the thread.

If the budget is 'bad' the markets will stop rating us as safe and god forbid the goverment can no longer sell it's debt. They won't be able to refinance debts as it falls due for repayment and then there will be no money for anything.

As I feel this is a possible outcome, I am trying to plan for - what if there is no NHS, what if there is no pension, others should be thinking what if my benefits get slashed. What happens if inflations goes really high?

I'm not really sure why I'm the bad guy. It's like you'd rather shoot me than face the actual issues the country is facing.

I understand busy. I looked after someone with dementia and it was back breaking and a worrying time financially as I gave up my job to do it. Lucky my parents were able to pay me so I didn't get benefits.

All I've done is point out some facts and I don't know if people are just so scared that they are attacking me rather than face up to the issues we have. The country didn't have an NHS or welfare state only 80 years ago so it's not so hard to imagine a life without these two things again. My dad told me stories of life before the NHS etc so it seems quite real to me.

Anyway thanks for posting. It's interesting to read everyone's views.