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Ukraine Invasion: Part 58

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/08/2025 12:16

We’re all still here for Thread 58. Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

D. Please keep on topic

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ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/09/2025 12:01

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️The EU has imposed a ban on Russian liquefied gas and set a price cap for oil at $47.6, Ursula von der Leyen announced.

❗️IAEA adopts resolution calling for the return of ZNPP to Ukraine — Lubinets
The document was supported by 62 member states, calling for the withdrawal of all unauthorized personnel from the plant. The resolution confirms that all nuclear facilities must operate under Ukraine’s sovereign control.
“Nuclear terrorism is unacceptable. Ukraine continues to insist on increasing international pressure on Russia for full implementation of all IAEA resolutions and the return of ZNPP to Ukrainian control,” emphasized Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets.

Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi reported that control has been restored over seven settlements in the Donetsk region.
According to him, Russian losses during this time amounted to 2,456 personnel, including 1,322 irretrievable. He also noted a significant replenishment of the “exchange fund.”

A major cyberattack has disrupted airports across Europe, BILD reports.
Airports in Berlin, London, Brussels, and other cities were affected. The attack targeted an external service provider. Berlin Airport said access to its systems was fully disabled for security reasons, causing long queues, delays, and flight cancellations. London Heathrow described the issue as a “technical glitch.”
Authorities urge passengers to check flight statuses and expect delays while specialists work to restore systems.

Ukrainian engineers unveiled the TOLOKA underwater drone, presenting three versions of the TLK 1000 ranging from 4 to 12 meters in length. Each drone will have a range of up to 2,000 km and a payload capacity of up to 5 tons. [that is one hell of a black turd to end up under your hull]

🇺🇦 President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine will create three platforms for the controlled export of Ukrainian weapons.
He explained that financing shortages for weapons production will be addressed through the controlled export of certain types of weapons, allowing increased drone production for the front.
The priorities are: first, supply the front; second, replenish Ukrainian arsenals; third, manage controlled exports.
The three export platforms will target the United States, European partners, and other countries supporting Ukraine.
“Ukraine will not engage in ‘armed charity’ or help those who do not care about our country. We are ready to work only with those who truly support our independence. Reliable export control is essential so that Russians and their accomplices do not gain access to Ukrainian technologies or weapons,” the president emphasized.

Peace with Moscow is only possible “after Putin,” while for now it remains a pariah, said Kellogg.
He compared the situation with the annexed territories of Ukraine to the Soviet occupation of the Baltics: de facto does not mean de jure.
Trump’s special representative also stressed that if Ukraine is “surrendered,” NATO will be the Kremlin’s next target.
“History rhymes: like Hitler in 1938, Putin demands more and more. He must be stopped now,” he said.
Kellogg also commented on the Russian drone strike in Poland, noting it was not an accident but a test of the West’s reaction. Such actions, he emphasized, must be treated as a test.

Putin’s press secretary Peskov, responding to the US president’s statement that Putin had let him down on ending the war, said that the head of the White House is “quite emotional” regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine.

The Odesa region was also attacked last night.
A fire broke out in a farm warehouse, and a warehouse building with agricultural machinery was destroyed.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
notimagain · 20/09/2025 12:05

If it's a cyber attack....

Over recent years the airline industry have demonstrated all sorts of imaginative ways of screwing up IT systems, and often the MSM almost by default blame it initially as least as being caused by a cyber attack.

I guess we might find out for sure in the coming hours - it certainly looks to be causing big problems.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/09/2025 12:05

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

After Israel’s Sept. 10 strike on Doha, Middle Eastern states are said to be considering a NATO-style alliance, (www.kyivpost.com/post/60478) as US ties may no longer guarantee their security. [hm, another move away from the US]

We are holding talks with Poland and Romania on joint actions to intercept drones in Ukraine’s western regions — Zelensky
Other key points from his statement:
▪️We are ready to meet with Putin — bilaterally or trilaterally. He is not ready.
▪️A meeting with Trump is scheduled for next week in New York.
▪️Russian forces will be destroyed in Kupiansk: intense operations are ongoing, and Ukrainian forces are clearing the city.
▪️European partners are not interested in a growing number of Ukrainians moving abroad and staying there.
▪️Separate modern assault units with drone components will be created.

Don’t mention the drones – Russian media admits empty gas pumps (www.kyivpost.com/post/60481) nationwide, rocketing fuel prices.

Russia pounds Ukraine with 580 drones and 40 missiles, (www.kyivpost.com/post/60520) leaving dead, dozens injured, and causing widespread damage.

🎙️ New episode of OFF THE RECORD is now live.
🇪🇺 EU Ambassador Katarina Mathernova joins 🇨🇦 Ambassador Natalka Cmoc in wartime Kyiv to talk EU accession, reforms, anti-corruption, the YES Conference — and even Prince Harry.
Watch now: www.kyivpost.com/videos/60486

I don't want to make money from the war in Ukraine. But we are making money because they are buying our weapons — Trump [sure you don't]

Over 30 civilians were injured in Dnipro after Putin’s forces shelled residential areas overnight.
Rescue efforts are ongoing.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 20/09/2025 12:14

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇪🇺 Shadow fleet, banks, and energy: The European Commission has unveiled the 19th package of sanctions against Russia.
The measures include:
🔴restrictions on 118 vessels of Russia’s shadow fleet;
🔴limits on crt*y platforms helping Russia circumvent sanctions; [stars are to stop mumsnet automatic filter]
🔴a ban on all transactions with energy giants Rosneft and Gazprom Neft;
🔴sanctions against oil refineries, oil traders, and petrochemical companies in third countries, including China;
🔴restrictions on 45 companies in Russia and abroad that support the Russian military-industrial complex;
🔴additional measures against banks in Russia and third countries to tighten enforcement against sanctions evasion.

🇪🇺🇭🇺 The European Commission plans to unfreeze €550 million for Hungary in exchange for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lifting his veto on new sanctions against Russia, the Financial Times reports.
In 2022, Brussels froze nearly €22 billion in EU funds allocated to Hungary over concerns about judicial independence, asylum rights, discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community, and academic freedom.
However, the Commission has gradually released portions of the money to win Orbán’s cooperation: in 2023, €10 billion was unlocked to secure Budapest’s support for aid to Ukraine.
In May, Hungary requested €605 million as part of the EU’s “mid-term” budget review. After months of negotiations, Brussels is now prepared to release most of that amount—around €550 million.

💥 Overnight, Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack on Ukraine, killing two people and wounding several others.
🔴Dnipro region suffered the heaviest damage — one person was killed and 13 injured. In Dnipro city and the surrounding district, an apartment building, private homes, garages, and outbuildings were damaged, with fires breaking out. An industrial facility in Pavlohrad was also hit.
🔴Khmelnytskyi region — firefighters discovered the body of a 46-year-old man while extinguishing a blaze in one home. Two residents sought medical care. The attack destroyed two houses and damaged around 20 more.
🔴Kyiv region — damage was reported across three districts, with garages, private homes, and cars affected.
🔴Mykolaiv region — the enemy used ballistic missiles and strike UAVs against industrial facilities in Mykolaiv, a farm in Snihurivka community, private houses, and civilian vehicles.
🔴Odesa region — a warehouse at a farming enterprise caught fire, and a storage facility with agricultural equipment was destroyed.

Three more Ukrainian teenagers have been brought back from occupation.
Among them is an 18-year-old girl who lived with her mother in occupied Crimea, where they had to keep moving to avoid persecution by Russian security services.
Another girl was pressured by the occupiers to enroll in universities in Crimea or Russia after finishing school — but she dreamed of studying at a Ukrainian institution instead.
Also returned was a 19-year-old boy who had long hesitated to leave, fearing that Russian forces would detain him at a checkpoint and conscript him into their army.

🇺🇸 Trump called the incursion of Russian fighter jets into Estonia a “big problem.”
“I don’t like it. This could be a big problem. I need to look into it. I’ll get a briefing on it shortly. I’ll let you know later,” the U.S. president told reporters when asked if he considered Russia’s violation of Estonian airspace a threat to NATO. [could be, not 'is']

Igotjelly · 20/09/2025 12:25

notimagain · 20/09/2025 12:05

If it's a cyber attack....

Over recent years the airline industry have demonstrated all sorts of imaginative ways of screwing up IT systems, and often the MSM almost by default blame it initially as least as being caused by a cyber attack.

I guess we might find out for sure in the coming hours - it certainly looks to be causing big problems.

I haven’t seen anything to say that they’re in any doubt it’s a cyber attack, maybe I’ve missed something?

notimagain · 20/09/2025 12:38

Igotjelly · 20/09/2025 12:25

I haven’t seen anything to say that they’re in any doubt it’s a cyber attack, maybe I’ve missed something?

The initial statements directly from Eurocontrol have it down as "IT disruption" with no cause given, the Guardian is describing at as "an alleged cyber-attack".

It could quite possibly be an attack but frankly having seen the recent leap to conclusions in the coverage of the VdL GPS story I'd be waiting a few more hours for a bit more info on this one.

Igotjelly · 20/09/2025 12:53

notimagain · 20/09/2025 12:38

The initial statements directly from Eurocontrol have it down as "IT disruption" with no cause given, the Guardian is describing at as "an alleged cyber-attack".

It could quite possibly be an attack but frankly having seen the recent leap to conclusions in the coverage of the VdL GPS story I'd be waiting a few more hours for a bit more info on this one.

Edited

Thanks!

notimagain · 20/09/2025 15:56

@Igotjelly

Looks like events are increasingly being blamed on a cyber attack.or event aimed at a system called Muse..as you mentioned earlier it's not a good look for Collins, though (as this piece mentions) if it was an attack it is odd it only effected four airports.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/sep/20/heathrow-airport-delays-cyber-attack-berlin-brussels-cancelled-delays

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:35

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Putin feels free to increase attacks (kyivindependent.com/putin-has-concluded-russia-can-increase-attacks-on-ukraine-and-trump-wont-react-bloomberg-reports/) on Ukraine without fear of consequences from Trump, Bloomberg reports.
Putin reached this conclusion following his meeting with Trump in Alaska last month, where he came to believe that Trump has no interest in intervening in the conflict, Kremlin sources told Bloomberg.

⚡️ Russia's 'good-for-nothing' general (kyivindependent.com/russias-good-for-nothing-general-reportedly-dismissed-after-ukraine-setbacks/) reportedly dismissed after Ukraine blunders.
Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin has long been associated with battlefield setbacks since 2022.

⚡️Major European (kyivindependent.com/potential-cyberattack-causes-major-airport-disruptions-in-europe/) airports disrupted in potential cyberattack.
Flight delays and cancellations were experienced in Brussels, Berlin, and at London's Heathrow Airport, after a third-party provider of check-in and boarding systems said it was experiencing a "cyber-related disruption."

⚡️ NATO was ready to 'use force' (kyivindependent.com/nato-was-ready-to-use-of-force-if-needed-tallinn-says/) against Russia, Estonia says after airspace incursion.
"We saw on Friday that NATO is functioning very efficiently... even to the point that if we were truly forced to use the last resort, which is the use of force, then there was a readiness for that as well," Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur said.

⚡️NATO 'must respond accordingly (kyivindependent.com/nato-must-respond-accordingly-to-russian-provocations-czech-president-says/), including militarily' to Russian provocations, Czech president says.
NATO must remain united and respond decisively to Russian provocations, Czech President Petr Pavel said on Sept. 20 amid increased Russian violations of NATO airspace.

⚡️Ukraine's security guarantees (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-security-guarantees-will-require-readiness-to-fight-russia-finlands-stubb-says/) will require readiness to fight Russia, Finland's Stubb says.
European countries that provide post-war security guarantees to Ukraine will be ready to fight Russia if it renews fighting, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told the Guardian in an interview published Sept. 20.

⚡️US senators introduce bill to send frozen Russian assets (kyivindependent.com/us-senators-introduce-bill-to-send-frozen-russian-assets-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine.

⚡️Yermak, Rubio discuss (kyivindependent.com/yermak-rubio-discuss-security-guarantees-military-cooperation-ahead-of-zelensky-trump-meeting/) security guarantees, military cooperation ahead of Zelensky-Trump meeting.

⚡️Zelensky confirms (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-confirms-upcoming-meeting-with-trump-at-un-general-assembly/) upcoming meeting with Trump at UN General Assembly.

Ukraine braces for renewed blackouts amid new wave of Russian attacks on energy

  • (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-braces-for-renewed-blackouts-amid-new-wave-of-russian-attacks-on-energy/)* After a brief respite, Ukraine is expecting a new wave of Russian mass attacks on its energy infrastructure that could throw the country back into blackouts this winter. On Sept. 11, the Energy Ministry announced it was stockpiling fuel reserves and equipment, and coordinating with the army to defend sites from aerial attacks. But, despite the government’s preparations, Ukraine lacks enough air defense to shield all energy facilities from Russian kamikaze drones and missiles.

⚡️Amid dwindling economy, number of Russian businesses falls (kyivindependent.com/amid-dwindling-economy-number-of-russian-businesses-falls-to-lowest-levels-since-2010-foreign-intelligence-says/) to lowest levels since 2010, Foreign Intelligence Service says.
Amid Russia's dwindling economic prospect, the number of registered businesses operating in in the country has fallen to lows not seen since 2010, Ukraine's foreign intelligence service (SZRU) announced.

⚡️Polish authorities discover (kyivindependent.com/polish-authorities-discover-what-could-be-19th-downed-russian-drone/) what could be 19th downed Russian drone.

⚡️Pro-Ukrainian partisans sabotage (kyivindependent.com/pro-ukrainian-partisans-sabotage-railway-leading-to-russian-aerospace-plant-atesh-claims/) railway leading to Russian aerospace plant, Atesh group claims.

⚡️ 3 Russian Mi-8 helicopters, radar station (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-says-successful-strike-destroys-3-russian-helicopters-radar-in-crimea/) destroyed in occupied Crimea, Ukraine's HUR says.
"The Russian invaders' air fleet in the temporarily occupied Crimea has been reduced again as a result of successful combat operations," Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) said.

⚡️Russian drones strike (kyivindependent.com/russian-drones-strike-oil-transport-infrastructure-in-chernihiv-oblast/) oil, transport infrastructure in Chernihiv Oblast.
Russian drones reportedly struck a Ukrainian oil depot at a military facility in Bakhmach, Chernihiv Oblast on Sept. 20, Russian Telegram channels reported.

⚡️Oil pumping stations in Volgograd and Samara stop work (kyivindependent.com/oil-pumping-stations-in-volgograd-and-samara-stop-work-after-ukrainian-drone-attack-sbu-source-says/) after fresh Ukrainian drone attack, SBU source says.
The attack was carried out by the Security Service of Ukraine and Special Operations Forces, an SBU source told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️Ukraine imposes sanctions (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-imposes-sanctions/) against 83 individuals, 13 entities, including Russian propagandists.

⚡️ Russian attacks on Ukraine kill 1, injure 8 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-on-ukraine-kill-1-injure-8/), target rescue workers battling fire.

⚡️Update: 2 killed, 36 injured (kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-large-scale-missile-drone-attack-targeting-regions-across-ukraine/) in large-scale Russian missile, drone attack on Ukrainian cities.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — SEP 21, 2025 (1/2)
■ Casualties stay above 1,000 & engagements below average
■ Record equipment losses due to record drone losses
■ Visually confirmed batch: 39 🇷🇺 : 17 🇺🇦 — 30-day ratio rises to 1.0x
■ Overnight attacks: all drones, interception rate could be better
■ 🇷🇺 strikes below average, 🇺🇦 strikes remain in single-digits

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:40

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️ In Russia, General Lapin, known for his failures in Ukraine, has been dismissed from the army — Russian media
At the start of the full-scale invasion, he commanded the “Center” group of forces that advanced toward Kyiv. After the defeat there, he was transferred to eastern Ukraine, where his units temporarily occupied Lyman, and later Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk.

The US is suspending sales of certain weapons, including Patriot missile systems, to Europe, The Atlantic reports.
Citing current and former administration officials, the publication says the Pentagon has documented shortages of some systems and has begun rejecting new European requests.
This is a suspension of deliveries, not a complete export ban, with the US itself now the priority. The Pentagon reportedly has only about 25% of the interceptor missiles it needs for its war plans.
Deliveries to Ukraine are not affected and continue under a separate program.

The European Union is considering imposing tariffs on Russian oil supplies through the Druzhba pipeline, which delivers to Hungary and Slovakia, Bloomberg reports.
The issue is being discussed separately from the new EU sanctions package. Unlike sanctions, tariffs can be approved by majority vote rather than unanimously.
According to Bloomberg, such measures would also align with Trump’s demand for the EU to fully abandon Russian oil and gas.

💸 US Senators Propose Transferring Revenue from Frozen Russian Assets to Ukraine Every 90 Days
Senator Shaheen stressed that the Kremlin’s full-scale aggression has caused “staggering destruction and loss of human life,” and dictator Vladimir Putin must be held accountable.
She noted that using Russian assets would give Kyiv resources for defense and reconstruction without adding a financial burden on American taxpayers.

On the night of September 20, operators of the 14th Separate Regiment of Unmanned Aviation Complexes of the Unmanned Systems Forces struck the Saratov and Novokuibyshevsk refineries.
▪️The Novokuibyshevsk refinery, located about 1,000 km from Ukraine’s border in Russia’s Samara region, has an annual capacity of 8.8 million tons and produces gasoline, diesel fuel, and fuel oil.
▪️The Saratov refinery, about 600 km from the border, processes up to 7.2 million tons annually and produces more than 20 types of petroleum products, including gasoline and diesel.
The strikes caused explosions and fires at both refineries. The extent of the damage is being assessed.

🇺🇦 Turkish Baykar and the Small Academy of Sciences will establish a Center for Aviation and Space Technologies for children and youth in Ukraine.
The project aims to create a space for developing technical skills among children. It will include a laboratory, a workshop, and training facilities for teachers of natural and technical sciences.

The Czech Republic will set up a special group to protect the country from Russian drones, Prime Minister Petr Fiala announced.
It will include experts and analysts from the Defense and Interior Ministries, the Ministry of Transport, the Army, Police, and other agencies.
“We must respond to the danger posed by Russian drones. This is another step to ensure maximum safety for citizens. In this way, we are strengthening the protection of our country from new threats that we are observing nearby,” Fiala said, as quoted by Radio Prague International.

Since the start of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the human rights situation inside the Russian Federation has sharply worsened, UN Special Rapporteur Mariana Katsarova said, as quoted by AFP.
Her annual report states that repression of dissent has intensified, while torture — including with the involvement of medical workers — is widely practiced.
Over the past 3.5 years, Russian authorities have increasingly used criminal prosecutions, long prison terms, intimidation, torture, and ill-treatment to silence critics of the war. The Kremlin labels the legitimate exercise of human rights as “existential threats to security” and portrays defenders as “enemies of the state.”
Katsarova stressed that Moscow has eliminated institutional independence by putting the judiciary, legislature, and law enforcement under direct political control, turning them into “instruments of repression and war.”
The report condemns the “systematic use of torture and ill-treatment” by Russian law enforcement, security services, prison staff, and the military. Particularly alarming, Katsarova noted, is evidence that medical professionals have participated in or condoned torture of Ukrainian prisoners, sometimes advising on how to apply electric shocks for maximum pain. She urged other states to use universal jurisdiction to prosecute perpetrators of torture.
In August, the UN Special Rapporteur on Torture, Alice Jill Edwards, together with other experts, submitted a dossier to Russia documenting sexualized torture of Ukrainian civilians in occupied regions. Ten cases cited involved electric shocks to the genitals, severe beatings, blindfolding, mock executions, and simulated drowning — described as only a fraction of a larger, well-documented pattern.
On September 17, Russia withdrew from the European Convention for the Prevention of Torture, an initiative personally pushed by Putin.

Alexander Tyunin, CEO of Chempromengineering, was found dead in the Moscow region. Preliminary reports suggest he committed suicide.
Russian media state that his body was discovered on the road next to his car near a forest. A hunting rifle and a suicide note were found nearby, in which he reportedly cited a long struggle with depression as the reason for his actions.
Chempromengineering, also known under the Umatex Group brand, is Russia’s only carbon fiber manufacturer and a key supplier of materials for Shahed/“Geran” attack drones.

57 Separate Mechanized brigade released a video showing a Kenyan athlete named Evans captured in the northern Kharkiv region. At the front, he fled and approached Ukrainian soldiers, asking them to “save his life.” He emphasized that he does not want to return to Russia under any circumstances. t.me/United24media/35573

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:47

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) said Sunday that it had targeted bases in occupied Crimea (www.kyivpost.com/post/60558) and released drone footage of the strikes captured by the drone’s thermal cameras.

Russia has begun dropping unidentified explosives from drones directly onto civilians and cars.
The first such incident was reported two days ago in Nizhyn, Chernihiv region, local authorities said.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 12:49

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇬🇧🇵🇱 British fighter jets have patrolled Polish skies for the first time.
Two RAF Typhoon jets carried out their first combat mission overnight on September 19–20, patrolling Polish airspace as part of NATO’s “Eastern Sentinel” mission.
The move aims to strengthen the Alliance’s defenses on its eastern flank following the incursion of Russian drones into Poland on September 10.

Estonia’s Ministry of Defense has released the flight path of the three Russian MiG-31s that violated its airspace the previous day.
The jets spent nearly 12 minutes near Vaindloo Island with their transponders switched off and without radio contact. This marks the fourth Russian airspace violation in Estonia so far this year.

Zelensky is convinced that as soon as the number of drones becomes comparable to the Russians’, they will feel it in a fuel shortage.
He stressed that production of long-range drones in Ukraine has now reached a level where everything depends solely on funding for this weaponry.
“During the counteroffensive in Donetsk, Ukrainian forces captured enemy maps showing that Russian troops are giving their command distorted information about the situation on the front,” the president said at a meeting with journalists.

Russia has attacked Ukraine with 1,500 drones and 50 missiles over the past week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said.
He added that Russian forces also dropped more than 1,280 guided aerial bombs.
Analysis of the weapons used revealed thousands of foreign-made components — over 132,000 in total — originating from Europe, the United States, China, Japan, and other countries.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 13:04

On another note, just seen that Mumsnet have introduced a 'misinformation' button for reporting posts. I'm relieved to see that there is one now; the amount of frighteningly deliberately false information in the last weeks is shocking.

notimagain · 21/09/2025 13:17

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the continued update and especially that final image - it highlights what the NATO air defenders are up against.

If I've got it right the the two solid purple lines north of where the fighters flew look to be roughly the limits of Finnish (northern line) and Estonian (southern line ) sovereign airspace.

There's a gap between the two that's international airspace and the Russian's and a few Belarus airlines are squeezing through that gap to avoid sanctions on airspace use when flying to/from Kaliningrad...and TBF the civvies are squawking (using transponders) to identify themselves and might even be talking to Estonian and/or Finnish ATC.

Stick something or somethings that is not liasing with ATC onto a very similar route and suddenly the idea of NATO taking a shot gets very problematic...is it not liasing because it's military or because it's an aircraft with a communications/electrical problem?

NATO don't want to risk shooting down an airliner..

notimagain · 21/09/2025 13:22

Once this gets approved here's a screen snap shot of that same chunk of airspace on Sunday lunchtime from the Flightradar Site.

The blue/purple line is a Ural airways flight that has just squeezed through the gap and other airliners on the same route are visible.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
blueshoes · 21/09/2025 23:46

Apologies for tardiness on the ISW updates this weekend. Just dropped son off at uni for freshers week.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-19-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19.
  2. European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive “drone wall” and provide military support for Ukraine following Russia’s violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
  3. The Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace.
  4. Russia is reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western sanctions.
  5. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of civilians.
  6. Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia’s handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
  7. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and near Lyman and Novopavlivka.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
blueshoes · 21/09/2025 23:52

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-20-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Kremlin insider statements continue to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin remains committed to his strategy that Russian forces will be able to win a war of attrition against Ukraine and the West and that the West has thus far failed to convince Putin to reevaluate his strategy.
  2. Putin may have allowed these Kremlin sources to share his logic with Bloomberg and likely seeks to leverage Bloomberg‘s article to exploit friction between European and US officials, to feed into the wider Russian narrative that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable, and to create fear in Ukrainian society ahead of Winter 2025-2026.
  3. Russian forces conducted one of the largest drone and missile strikes against Ukraine in recent weeks on the night of September 19 to 20.
  4. Russia is intensifying its efforts to test NATO’s defensive capabilities and resolve by violating NATO members’ safety zones in the air domain.
  5. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of Ukraine’s managed weapons exports program.
  6. Russian commanders continue to order Russian forces to execute Ukrainian civilians and commit acts of perfidy as part of an ongoing trend of Russian commanders systematizing deliberate war crimes among Russian units.
  7. Ukrainian forces advanced in northern Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk. Russian forces advanced in northern Kharkiv Oblast and near Lyman, Pokrovsk, Novopavlivka, and Velykomykhailivka.

British Typhoon fighter jets in air defence mission over Poland [image]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 58
MissConductUS · 22/09/2025 00:19

notimagain · 21/09/2025 13:17

@ReleaseTheDucksOfWar

Thanks for the continued update and especially that final image - it highlights what the NATO air defenders are up against.

If I've got it right the the two solid purple lines north of where the fighters flew look to be roughly the limits of Finnish (northern line) and Estonian (southern line ) sovereign airspace.

There's a gap between the two that's international airspace and the Russian's and a few Belarus airlines are squeezing through that gap to avoid sanctions on airspace use when flying to/from Kaliningrad...and TBF the civvies are squawking (using transponders) to identify themselves and might even be talking to Estonian and/or Finnish ATC.

Stick something or somethings that is not liasing with ATC onto a very similar route and suddenly the idea of NATO taking a shot gets very problematic...is it not liasing because it's military or because it's an aircraft with a communications/electrical problem?

NATO don't want to risk shooting down an airliner..

Agreed. They’d need visual confirmation of the aircraft type before going kinetic. That would require having a lot of aircraft patrolling the area continuously.

blueshoes · 22/09/2025 03:01

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-21-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russia has reportedly been forming a strategic reserve from new recruits since July 2025.
  2. The Russian military command may have assessed that Russia could afford to create a strategic reserve after Russian losses began to decrease in the summer of 2025.
  3. Reports that Russia is creating a strategic reserve further indicate that the Kremlin is not interested in ending its war against Ukraine but remains committed to achieving its war goals on the battlefield and may be preparing for a conflict with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
  4. Russia continues to test the limits of NATO’s air defenses over the Baltic Sea as Russia increases the frequency of its violations of NATO states’ airspace.
  5. Russian forces continue to develop drone technologies to increase the volume and precision of strikes against the Ukrainian near rear to further complicate Ukrainian logistics.
  6. The Kremlin reportedly dismissed former Northern Group of Forces and Leningrad Military District (LMD) Commander Colonel General Alexander Lapin from military service.
  7. Lapin has proven to be an incompetent commander throughout the war against Ukraine, but the Kremlin is likely punishing Lapin now as part of its ongoing campaign to scapegoat and punish high ranking officials for their failure to repel Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024.
  8. Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, and Velykomykhailivka.
LlttledrummergirI · 22/09/2025 07:55

@blueshoes no apologies needed. Thank you for posting them so that we don't have to hunt.

I hope your ds settles in and has a fabulous journey.

Igotjelly · 22/09/2025 08:19

blueshoes · 21/09/2025 23:46

Apologies for tardiness on the ISW updates this weekend. Just dropped son off at uni for freshers week.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-19-2025/

Key Takeaways

  1. Russian MiG-31 interceptor jets violated Estonian airspace on September 19.
  2. European officials continue to discuss the creation of a defensive “drone wall” and provide military support for Ukraine following Russia’s violation of Polish airspace on September 9 to 10.
  3. The Kremlin continues to reject blame for the Russian drone incursion into Poland’s airspace.
  4. Russia is reportedly using joint energy ventures to sell military equipment to Vietnam and evade Western sanctions.
  5. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in Ukraine, including executions of civilians.
  6. Russia continues to censor critics of its war in Ukraine, including critics of Russia’s handling of the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast.
  7. Russian forces advanced in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area and in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and near Lyman and Novopavlivka.

Hope he loves uni! And hope empty nest syndrome isn’t too bad ❤️

Desdemonashandkerchief · 22/09/2025 10:59

United 24 Media:

🇩🇪 On Sunday, two German Eurofighter jets were scrambled to intercept a Russian Il-20M reconnaissance aircraft over the Baltic Sea.
Tensions in the Baltic region have recently increased due to repeated Russian airspace violations.

🇪🇺 The EU will act in its own interests and will not automatically impose 100% tariffs on India and China at Trump’s request, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told Belgian newspaper Le Soir.

She stressed that the EU is preparing to sign a free trade agreement with India by the end of 2025, which will strengthen Europe’s geopolitical position and reduce dependence on the White House.

“In this increasingly complex geopolitical environment, we must strengthen our partnerships based on shared interests. Take, for example, our relationship with India. Given the country’s growing role in ensuring the security of the Indo-Pacific region, closer cooperation between the EU and India is more important than ever,” von der Leyen said.

According to her, the new EU-India Strategic Agenda prioritizes defense and security cooperation, while the free trade agreement will bring benefits to businesses on both sides.

🔹 Today (Sep.21st) is the International Day of Peace. For millions of people, this word is associated with calm and safety. And it's exactly what Ukrainians long for most of all.

Unfortunately, russia does not allow peaceful citizens to live in quiet and harmony. russia justifies their crimes with lies about ‘protection’ and ‘liberation.‘ Behind the words ‘russkiy mir‘ there is only death and shattered lives.

But Ukrainians know another kind of peace. Peace is where children go to school instead of hiding in basements; where mothers do not bury their sons, and children do not visit the graves of their fathers. Where people make plans for the future, instead of fearing that tomorrow a missile will destroy their home.

Today, Ukrainians are defending their right to this just peace. Help them in this fight.

🔸 China has canceled subsidies for its state-owned companies to buy copper and nickel from Russia, Bloomberg reports.

Moscow’s declared “pivot to the East” has left Russian raw material producers heavily dependent on Beijing’s decisions. Now, without subsidies, Russian metals are becoming less attractive for Chinese buyers — and exporters are forced to offer discounts.

According to Bloomberg’s sources, China has suspended unofficial subsidies not only for Russia but also for Iran and Mongolia. In recent tenders, the usual benefits were absent, which could weaken the competitiveness of Russian copper and nickel. For years, Chinese state-owned enterprises received discounts in the form of fixed sums or percentages of the cost, depending on market conditions.

The reasons for canceling the subsidies remain unclear. Meanwhile, Russian companies have sharply increased supplies to China: in the first five months of this year, copper sales rose by 66%, and nickel exports more than doubled, Trade Data Monitor shows.

Due to Western sanctions, Russian firms cannot trade metals on the London Metal Exchange or the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Bloomberg notes that, similar to oil, the abolition of subsidies is unlikely to reduce Russian export volumes but will force companies to sell at significant discounts, given their reliance on China as a primary buyer.

🔹 The British government is considering financing a new wave of loans to Ukraine using billions of pounds of Russian state assets frozen in the UK, Politico reports.

Finance Minister Rachel Reeves presented the plan at a ministerial meeting in Copenhagen. She emphasized that the loans would comply with international law and would not involve the permanent confiscation of Russian state assets.

While most of Russia’s frozen reserves — €185 billion — are held in the EU at the Belgian depository Euroclear, about £25 billion is stored in the UK. These funds could back a British “reparations loan” program, which the Treasury said would “work in unison” with the EU initiative. The proposals under review could “unlock funding for the full value of assets held in the UK.”

Under the EU scheme, Brussels would provide Ukraine with loans of up to €172 billion, backed by frozen Russian assets. In return, the EU would issue interest-free bonds, aiming to avoid charges of outright confiscation. However, Euroclear has cautioned against measures that could expose it to legal or financial risks.

Reeves stressed that London would “only consider options that are in line with international law and are economically and fiscally responsible.”

🔸 Mi-8 helicopters and the “Sky-U” radar in Crimea – another successful result of the HUR’s “Prymary” raid on the peninsula.
The aircraft fleet of the Russian occupiers in temporarily occupied Crimea has again decreased thanks to the special unit of the HUR of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
Three Russian multi-purpose Mi-8 helicopters were destroyed, along with the costly 55Zh6U “Sky-U” radar system.

❗️Russian troops struck civilian infrastructure in Zaporizhzhia, killing three people and injuring two. The attack destroyed and damaged buildings, cars, with fires still raging.

🇲🇩 Russia has developed a plan to interfere in Moldova’s upcoming parliamentary elections on September 28, aiming to disrupt the country’s path toward EU accession, Bloomberg reports.

Kremlin tactics reportedly include:
▫️Recruiting Moldovans abroad, including in Russia, to vote at polling stations in the EU and elsewhere;
▫️Organizing destructive protests;
▫️Running a large-scale disinformation campaign on social networks.

President Maia Sandu warned of unprecedented interference through voter bribery, cyberattacks, paid protests, and disinformation. Recent polls show her PAS party leading but without a majority in the legislature.

🔹 For the fourth time, Russia has marked one of the world’s highest annual diplomatic events with killings, — Volodymyr Zelenskyy said following the night attacks.

“Rescue operations and rubble clearing continue after the Russian strike on Zaporizhzhia. Guided air bombs hit civilian infrastructure and ordinary homes. Fifteen high-rise buildings and 10 private houses were damaged. Three people have died. My condolences to their families and friends.

The Donetsk, Dnipro, Sumy, Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions were also hit by drone strikes overnight — more than 140 drones in total, some of them ‘shaheeds’. In Sumy, a bread-producing enterprise, a school, and a kindergarten were damaged. One person was injured. An ordinary school was destroyed in Malotaranivka, Donetsk region. Wherever needed, our services are working on the ground.

The UN General Assembly is already beginning in New York. This is the fourth time Russia has accompanied a major annual diplomatic event with killings. That is why this diplomatic week must be effective. We must act to ensure that murders and war do not become routine. Strong pressure on Russia is needed — new joint steps by everyone who believes in international law. Europe, the USA, the G7 and G20 — all with real influence on Russia. Strong sanctions, political pressure, and holding Russia accountable for the war are essential. All this will happen. Thank you to everyone who helps!”

💥 For the first time in history, Russian Be-12 amphibious aircraft were destroyed in Crimea.

On September 21, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate struck the temporarily occupied peninsula, destroying two Be-12 Chaika anti-submarine warfare aircraft and one Mi-8 helicopter.

The Be-12s were equipped with costly anti-submarine warfare systems.

Desdemonashandkerchief · 22/09/2025 11:06

Live:Ukraine

🇨🇿 The Czech Republic is establishing a coordination group to protect the country from drones.

“We must respond to the danger posed by Russian drones. Our priority is the safety of citizens and readiness for any potential threats,” said the Czech prime minister.

The group will include representatives from the ministries of defense, interior, and transport, as well as the army, police, and other agencies. Its work will focus on monitoring technological developments and devising appropriate countermeasures.

🇪🇪 For the first time in 34 years, Estonia is convening an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council — all because of Russian MiG-31s.

“By brazenly violating our airspace, Russia undermines the principles vital to the security of all UN members. It is important that a permanent member of the UN Security Council be held accountable for such violations within this very body,” said Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna.

He stressed that the airspace breach is part of Russia’s broader actions testing the resolve of Europe and NATO.

▪️On September 19, three Russian MiG-31 fighter jets entered Estonian airspace over the Gulf of Finland without authorization, remaining there for a total of 12 minutes. Moscow has denied that its jets crossed into Estonian airspace.

🔹 Zelensky announced preparations for a “week of diplomacy” aimed at rallying the world toward decisive action.

He noted that Ukraine is counting on the swift approval of the EU’s 19th sanctions package against Russia.

🔸 Scandal in Austria: OMV top manager fired over ties to Russian intelligence

A senior executive at Austrian oil and gas giant OMV has been dismissed following suspicions of working for the FSB.

He had been under surveillance by the Directorate of State Security and Intelligence (DSN) for several months. During a house search, investigators discovered numerous classified documents.

According to reports, the manager regularly met with a Russian diplomat believed by Western intelligence services to be an FSB agent. Austrian prosecutors are now demanding the diplomat’s immunity be lifted; otherwise, he will be expelled from the country.

OMV quickly announced the employee’s immediate dismissal and pledged full cooperation with the authorities.

Of particular concern is that the manager had access to projects Borealis and Borouge — strategic assets of OMV and its Middle Eastern partner ADNOC.

🔹 Russian forces carried out five strikes on Zaporizhzhia, targeting not only civilian infrastructure but also industrial facilities, the regional administration reported.

A woman was killed.

Sumy and Kyiv regions also came under Russian attack overnight.

In Sumy region, drones struck a facility in the Kovpakivskyi district of Sumy, injuring a security guard.

In the Boryspil district of Kyiv region, a man sustained a shoulder injury in a drone strike. Fires broke out in the Vyshhorod, Fastiv, Obukhiv, and Boryspil districts as a result of the attacks.

🔹 Air defense forces shot down 132 out of 141 enemy drones, the Air Force reported.

Nine attack UAVs struck seven locations, while debris fell in another eight.

Natsku · 22/09/2025 12:02

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 21/09/2025 13:04

On another note, just seen that Mumsnet have introduced a 'misinformation' button for reporting posts. I'm relieved to see that there is one now; the amount of frighteningly deliberately false information in the last weeks is shocking.

Oh that's good, finally.

@blueshoes good luck to your son at Uni - freshers week is the absolute best, hope he has a blast

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