When Labour got in I was sure they’d get two terms and possibly a third. I’m much more doubtful about that now.
The Tories best bet is to tread water and let Labour fuck up and hope that Reform eats itself - which isn’t unlikely given the history of splinter parties on the right.
Reform is really a one-issue party, or one-and-a-half if you include the vapour trail of Brexit. What they’ve said about the economy and the other big stuff isn’t remotely convincing. They don’t want to do anything meaningful about welfare, for example, because their main target regions have large numbers dependent on state support.
When ambitious, fractious politicians gather, there has to be a broad philosophy to hold them together, at least for the most part, and “the others are rubbish” isn’t a philosophy. I suspect that many Tories who defect find out that they’ve joined a protest group that can’t agree on anything beyond small boat immigration.
My present best guess at the next government is a Tory-Reform coalition. Although that might be perilous for both of them.