Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Zelensky arrives (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arrives-in-lithuania/) in Lithuania for summit with B9, Nordic countries.

⚡️Zelensky announces (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-announces-updated-ukrainian-delegation-list-ahead-of-planned-peace-talks-with-russia-in-istanbul/) updated Ukrainian delegation list, ahead of planned peace talks with Russia.
Defense Minister Rustem Umerov will again lead the delegation, which will include several new figures from Ukraine's military, human rights, and legal sectors.

⚡️Lavrov, Rubio discuss peace settlement ahead of Ukraine-Russia talks (https://kyivindependent.com/lavrov-rubio-discuss-war-settlement-ahead-of-ukraine-russia-peace-talks-in-istanbul/) in Istanbul. 

⚡️34% of Russian strategic missile carriers at main airfields damaged (kyivindependent.com/34-of-russian-strategic-missile-carriers-worth-7-billion-damaged-in-ukrainian-drone-operation-sbu-reports/) in Ukrainian drone operation, SBU reports.
The Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) reported that the June 1 “Spider Web” drone operation caused approximately $7 billion in damages and disabled 34% of cruise missile carriers in key Russian airbases.

⚡️ Update: SBU chief confirms (kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/) 41 Russian bombers, other aircraft hit during mass Ukrainian strike on June 1.
Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) drones hit 41 Russian bombers and other aircraft during a mass attack on June 1, including А-50, Тu-95, Тu-22 М3, and Тu-160 models, SBU chief Vasyl Maliuk said on June 2.

⚡️Destroyed Russian bombers seen (kyivindependent.com/first-satellite-images-show-destroyed-russian-bombers-after-ukrainian-drone-strike-on-belaya-air-base/) in first satellite images after Ukrainian drone strike.
The photos, captured by U.S. aerospace company Umbra Space, appear to confirm the destruction of at least three Tu-95MS strategic bombers and one Tu-22M3 aircraft, with an additional Tu-95MS visibly damaged. Another image shows two more likely destroyed Tu-22M3 bombers on the field.

⚡️ Update: Ukraine operated near FSB HQ during mass strike on Russian air bases, Zelensky says. (kyivindependent.com/enemy-bombers-are-burning-en-masse-ukraines-sbu-drones-hit-more-than-40-russian-aircraft/)
"What’s most interesting... is that the 'office' of our operation on Russian territory was located directly next to FSB headquarters in one of their regions," President Volodymyr Zelensky said about an SBU drone strike against Russian air bases on June 1.

⚡️Russia shatters drone record (kyivindependent.com/russia-shatters-drone-record-launches-472-uavs-at-ukraine-night-before-kyivs-strike-on-russian-airfields/), launches 472 UAVs at Ukraine night before Kyiv's strike on Russian airfields.
The mass aerial attack breaks Russia's previous record, set just last week on May 26, by over 100 drones.

⚡️UPDATE: Conservative candidate Nawrocki wins Polish presidential election (kyivindependent.com/polish-election-too-close-to-call/)by narrow margin.
Right-wing historian Karol Nawrocki garnered 50.89% of the vote in the run-off election on June 1, narrowly defeating his liberal rival, Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski.

⚡️Russia recruiting (kyivindependent.com/russian-security-services-recruiting-ukrainians-for-illegal-activities-in-europe-ukrainian-intelligence-says/) Ukrainians for illegal activities in Europe, Ukrainian intel warns.
"The recruitment of Ukrainians for hostile operations in Europe is yet another tool of hybrid aggression that the Russian Federation is waging against Ukraine and the entire European community," Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) said.

⚡️Over 160 Ukrainian drones downed (kyivindependent.com/russian-defense-ministry-says-162-ukrainian-drones-shot-down-overnight/) across Russia, Moscow claims day after mass strike on airfields.
The wave of drones targeted multiple cities and industrial facilities, according to Russian Telegram channels.

⚡️After Ukraine's strike on Russian bombers, governor mulls (kyivindependent.com/russian-governor-praises-citizens-for-attacking-ukrainian-drones-with-stones/) rewarding citizens for attacking UAVs with stones.
"In the operational staff, we will evaluate the actions of concerned citizens who tried to interfere with the work of drones and decide on their recognition," Governor of Russia's Irkutsk Oblast Igor Kobzev wrote on Telegram.

⚡️Zelensky summons (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-meet-top-military-officials-after-russian-strike-kills-12-at-ukrainian-training-camp/) Drapatyi, who submitted resignation over Russian strike on Ukrainian training camp.
"I scheduled a meeting ... to sort it all out," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a video address.

⚡️Russia attacks Kharkiv with ballistic missiles, drones, injuring at least 6 (kyivindependent.com/russia-attacks-kharkiv-with-ballistic-missiles-drones-injuring-at-least-6-including-child/), including child.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
· 2h
⚡️ WAR IN UKRAINE & RUSSIA — JUN 2, 2025
■ High casualties despite below-average engagements
■ Heavy equipment losses (excl. yesterday's high profile strikes)
■ Officer losses: +80 (avg. 11.2/day over last four batches)
■ Fewer 🇷🇺 strikes, increased 🇺🇦 activity

Different devices for different tasks to some extent.

The airborne/aircraft surveillance tends to be tied on with gathering real time and maybe coordinating a response from friendly forces.

Satellites tend to be able to provide info slightly less than in real time, but there is some overlap between the two (more and more these days).

I think the good news is it won't be easy for Russia to replace some of the damaged aircraft, it will be impossible since they are long out of production.

The bad news is the initial estimates of numbers destroyed might be very optimistic...it's war, that happens.

I can’t help but feel that Putin will have something nasty up his sleeve in retaliation for the drone strikes.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️The Ukrainian and Russian delegations have arrived at the Çırağan Palace in Istanbul, where negotiations are scheduled to begin at 1:00 p.m.

❗️The value of Russian strategic aircraft destroyed during special operation “Pavutyna” (“Web”) is allegedly estimated at approximately $7 billion.

Zelenskyy Urges Ukrainians Not to Ignore Air Alerts Amid Intelligence on New Russian Strike
Zelenskyy called on citizens to take air raid warnings seriously, stressing that Ukrainian intelligence has received information indicating Russia is preparing another large-scale attack.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy praised the Security Service of Ukraine’s (SBU) special operation “Pavutyna” (“Web”) as a historic success and a fully independent achievement of Ukraine.
“A year, six months and nine days from the start of planning to effective implementation. Our operation is the most far-reaching,” Zelenskyy noted.
He confirmed that all personnel involved in the mission were successfully withdrawn from Russian territory and personally thanked SBU Head Vasyl Malyuk for the result.

Zelenskyy: 117 Drones and Operators Involved in Operation “Pavutyna” (“Web”)

UK to Invest £1.5 Billion in Munitions and Energy Plants, Acquire 7,000 Long-Range Weapons — UK Defence Journal
The UK government will invest £1.5 billion in building at least six new domestic plants focused on producing fuel, explosives, and pyrotechnics. It also plans to purchase up to 7,000 British-made long-range weapons.
This move is a key element of the forthcoming Strategic Defence Review and reflects preparations for a new era of high-speed warfare and global instability.
The goal is to strengthen the UK Armed Forces’ ability to sustain prolonged operations and rapidly scale production when necessary.
This brings the total munitions investment during the current government’s term to £6 billion.

Ukrainian children are forced to grow up under missile strikes, hiding in bomb shelters, and learning math in subway stations. Many have lost their homes. Some have lost parents. Others carry lifelong injuries—both visible and invisible. This is what Russia has turned Ukrainian childhood into.
Help protect Ukrainian children and give them peaceful nights—join the fundraiser u24.gov.ua/sky-sentinel?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=media&utm_campaign=sky-sentinel.

Ukraine has rewritten the rules of warfare. The attack on Russian air bases marks a turning point in history, comparable to Pearl Harbor in 1941, — The Washington Post.
Both operations revealed the vulnerability of outdated systems. This may signal the beginning of the end for the era of manned aviation.
The prototype of THE drone.

Satellite Images Show Dozens of Russian Bombers Intact Days Before Ukraine’s “Pavutyna” (“Web”) Operation
Recent satellite images captured shortly before Ukraine’s major strike reveal the scale of Russian strategic aviation at key airbases:
Belaya Airfield (May 31):
— 39 Tu-22M3
— 30 MiG-31
— 7 Tu-160
— 6 Tu-95MS
— 2 Il-78M
— 6 An-26
— 2 An-12
Olenya Airfield (May 26):
— 40 Tu-22M3
— 11 Tu-95MS
— 5 An-12
These numbers underscore the scale and significance of Ukraine’s “Pavutyna” (“Web”) special operation.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukraine trained (www.kyivpost.com/post/53784) AI for its “Spiders Web” airfield drone attacks at aviation museum.

This morning, Putin’s forces launched a drone and missile strike on Kharkiv. Two children are among the victims. Residential buildings, warehouses, and vehicles were destroyed in the attack.
Rescue operations are ongoing.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Vladimir Medinsky has arrived in Istanbul as head of the Russian delegation for talks with the Ukrainian side
Footage from Russian state media captured the moment the former Russian culture minister refused to shake hands with a woman from the welcoming party.
https://t.me/liveukraine_media/31685

🇺🇦Ukraine will present a detailed roadmap during negotiations with Russia in Istanbul, Reuters reports.
According to the agency, Kyiv will demand a 30-day full ceasefire, followed by the exchange of all prisoners of war and the return of abducted Ukrainian children.
The next stage, according to a copy of the document obtained by Reuters, would be a meeting between President Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. The roadmap envisions that Moscow and Kyiv, with participation from the U.S. and Europe, would begin work on finalizing terms to end the war.
The document also states that the current front line would serve as the starting point for territorial negotiations.

❗️Sources within the White House have denied that the U.S. administration was informed in advance about Ukraine’s “Spiderweb” special operation, CBS News reports.
According to the outlet, officials say President Donald Trump’s administration had no prior knowledge of the planned strikes.
White House spokespeople declined to issue an official comment regarding Ukraine’s attack on Russia’s strategic aviation.

🇵🇱 Karol Nawrocki Elected President of Poland
Poland has completed the vote count, and Karol Nawrocki, the candidate from the opposition Law and Justice party, has won the presidential election with 50.89% of the vote. His opponent, pro-European Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski, received 49.11%.
▪️Earlier this year, Nawrocki stated that he does not see Ukraine joining international alliances until Kyiv “answers for the Volyn crime,” referring to the Volyn tragedy. In May, he vowed to block Ukraine’s path to NATO.
▪️He has criticized Poland’s current government, voiced opposition to the “influx of illegal immigrants,” and rejected the idea of sending Polish troops to Ukraine. According to Nawrocki, Ukraine treats Poland “unfairly.”

🇺🇸The U.S. intelligence community is exploring how to tailor daily intelligence briefings to better align with Donald Trump’s preferences and habits, NBC News reports, citing multiple sources.
One idea proposed by Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is to format briefings like news segments from Trump’s favorite outlet, Fox News. Since Trump rarely reads written materials, officials are prioritizing visual and oral formats.
Briefings may also shift focus to align with his political interests — placing more emphasis on the economy and less on the war in Ukraine.
The way information is presented in the President’s Daily Brief (PDB) can significantly influence top-level decision-making. However, Trump reportedly received the PDB only 14 times since taking office — less than once a week — while his predecessors were briefed far more frequently.
Sources told NBC that this irregularity reflects not only Trump’s preferred communication style but also his longstanding distrust of the intelligence community, which dates back to his accusation that U.S. agencies spied on his 2016 campaign.

This may signal the beginning of the end for the era of manned aviation

Where have I heard that one before?......oh hang on, Duncan Sandys famous White Paper in 1957 which screwed a lot of UK aircraft manufacturering and hobbled the RAF for quite a few years....

Beware the automation acolytes, they might be right one day but don't bet the defence of the country on it quite yet...everything evolves and adapts, including crewed 😉.aviation

From one of the articles above:

Ukraine drones strike bombers during major attack in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ld7ppre9vo

Zelensky said he congratulated SBU head Vasyl Maliuk with the "absolutely brilliant result" of the operation.

He said that each of the 117 drones launched had its own pilot.

"The most interesting thing - and we can already say this publicly - is that the 'office' of our operation on Russian territory was located right next to the FSB of Russia in one of their regions," the Ukrainian president said.
[...]
Zelensky also said that all the people involved in the operation had been safely "led away" from Russia before the strikes.

Of course, we don't know if the Ukrainians are giving the full story about drone pilots.

It's a similar situation with main battle tanks and related armored combat vehicles. Pundits have been declaring tank warfare dead since WWI. Tanks adapted to new threats, tactics evolved, and tanks and other armored vehicles took on new roles.

German tanks fought alone during WWII, partly due to their relatively small numbers. American troops had so many tanks available that they integrated them with infantry units. This allowed infantry soldiers to scout around and in front of tanks, increasing their situational awareness and survivability. In return, tanks provided firepower and protection for infantry troops. Negating a German machine gun position or a group of Germans firing from a building was trivial for a tank. It was a mutually beneficial set of tactics and a major factor in the defeat of the Germans after D Day.

Drones are just the latest "nail in the coffin" for armor. Until they aren't.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Active_protection_system

Sorry, this is a bit of a high horse for me. 😀

Never apologise for sharing your military insight, @MissConductUS ! It's one of the things which makes these threads so valuable!

Ukraine hasn’t informed other countries about some of its previous operations (Kursk for instance). They've good reason not to, a Russian agent turned up in the German government at one point. The UK likewise has history with the Cambridge Five. Any country's government (including Ukraine's) could have been infiltrated so it is wise to keep the number of people who know about a particular operation as few as possible.

In the failed Ukrainian offensive of 2023 the Russians knew exactly where the Ukrainians were going to push and prepared accordingly.

There's nothing sinister about the US (or pretty much anybody else, including most people in Ukraine) not getting a heads up about the drone attack.

Keeping the circle of "need to knows" to an absolute minimum is really basic operational security.

Back in the day even within the armed Forces you wouldn't know what everybody was up to, why certain units had deployed, etc etc.

Here’s the UK strategic defence review, now published: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/683d89f181deb72cce2680a5/The_Strategic_Defence_Review_2025_-Making_Britain_Safer-_secure_at_home__strong_abroad.pdf

Apologies upnfront, but many of you are militarily minded and might have contacts and I couldn’t see any current threads.

But is there any whispers of why we should pay attention to Pete Hegseth talking up China and Taiwan? I might’ve dismissed him but then Starmer started talking about being on war-fighting readiness (admittedly, that’ll take 10 years for the UK).

Anyone believe there is anything on the imminent horizon i.e. any active concerns <looking at @MissConductUS > or is Starmer realising we weren’t going to build houses our way into economic growth and has gone for a war economy instead?

Hegseth made those remarks at a high level Asian defense/security conference, so it's quite within context for him to warn of the danger China poses to Taiwan, especially as China has ramped up military exercises around Taiwan with the clear goal of intimidating them. Hegseth has more intel than I do, but I know of nothing that would make this a near-horizon threat.

I don't pretend to understand British politics, but I took Starmer's remarks as intending to prepare the ground politically for a fight over limited resources and the need to augment and modernize the UK's armed forces.

If Starmer wants economic growth, that's another set of issues - tax levels, regulatory burdens, becoming more attractive to international investors, etc. Neither building houses or tanks is going to yield economic growth.

I agree, this was clearly a need to know situation.

There can be tension between operational security and mission awareness, but it's manageable. Everyone knows that the mission is to degrade Russian long range aviation. The plan to do so is compartmentalized.

Here's a fair early summary:

https://breakingdefense.com/2025/06/more-aukus-subs-drones-and-munitions-uk-strategic-review-aims-for-warfighting-readiness/

What I don't see any mention of is force levels. A lot of shiny new kit isn't going to do much good if you don't have soldiers, sailors, and airmen to operate it all. I don't know about the RN and the RAF, but an active duty force of 73k is arguably too small to be viable for the British Army, considering that only 30% or so of that number are front-line warfighters.

Many thanks for your thoughts @MissConductUS that’s reassuring for now. I won’t rush out to buy a generator just yet 😏

@DrBlackbird, we have a 5000 watt Honda petrol generator and it's been a very good investment. But I live in a semi-rural area with above ground power lines. And we get a fair number of tropical storms and the occasional hurricane.

It's always good to be prepared. 😉

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-2-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on June 2 and only reached agreements about prisoner of war (POW) exchanges. Russia's refusal to give Ukraine its memorandum with its terms for a peace settlement before the meeting ensured that the meeting was largely unproductive and further protracted the negotiation process.
• Ukrainian and Russian media published the major points of both sides' memorandums on June 1 and 2, respectively.
• Russia's memorandum reflects the Kremlin's long-standing public demands for Ukraine to make significant territorial and political concessions while Russia offers no concessions of its own.
• The Russian delegation dismissed Russia's systemic kidnapping of Ukrainian children.
• Russian forces appear to be intensifying efforts to widen the frontline in northern Sumy Oblast along three axes of advance north and northeast of Sumy City.
• Open-source analysts continue to clarify the battlefield damage following the Ukrainian long-range drone strike series on June 1.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces recently

What I don't see any mention of is force levels.

Yep, and lots of those sort of in the know have been picking up on that.

HM Forces has a massive recruitment/retention problem, fixing that means at least in part spending money on wages, improving T&Cs, etc, rather than or in addition to "kit" and I gather that"s something the Treasury don't like...they like to see physical assets that are on the books.

Hence the review is pretty much silent on Force levels but emphasises the promised shiney kit..

Why the problem with force retention? that's a very bad sign.

From what I'm hearing it's multiple issues including pay, quality of accommodation (always been an issue TBH, especially married quarters, but it's got worse), more and more time away from home/base on deployed duty (because of the lack of people, so that leads to a doom loop)...

There's whole lot more I'm sure.

I know people don't join for pay and a cushy.life but there seems to be a feeling HMG/HM Forces have lost the plot slightly when it comes to managing and very importantly motivating people.

One of the most important aspects of any organisation, and a military one most of all.