Ukraine Invasion: Part 57

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 57. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Absolutely we wouldn't want Russia to be able to stop the next attack

@notimagain I know you are not one to speculate but would be good to get your thoughts on what/who else could be behind this.

Doh, I get it now. The lorries is a decoy explanation to avoid revealing Ukrainian MO for destroying long range high value targets.

Well absolutely. Quite right not to give too much away.

Result, though!

Russia denying any damage has been caused and saying all attacks were repelled. Reputational damage limitation internally I’m thinking? Trying to control the narrative and play it down.

What is that old saying about if Russia denies it then it's true

Sounds like a good result to me regardless. Where next?

Yes. The spread of Russian lower level culture.

@LlttledrummergirI Thank you so much for the doing the roundups! Much appreciated.

Absolutely my pleasure. I'm in awe of you doing them every day.

Thank you

Not just that. They play a long game. They replace native Ukrainian population with these ones from Siberia etc. Thus cementing the “these are Russian lands because the population is Russian speakers” narrative.

It's probably a massively succesful one off.

Looks like what we"ve heard/read so far is reasonably credible...

Anyone involved in the Russian internal security apparatus is probably staying away from windows and the Russian HGV industry is.probably grinding to a halt due checks..

OTOH those western air forces who park airframes, especially big ones,.in the open/on one airfield might want to be taking notes.

I think western intelligence was involved and there will be a shot load of security to prevent us getting linked to that one......Maybe a squeaky bum WW3 decision?

Great round up here at TWZ:

https://www.twz.com/news-features/russian-strategic-bombers-destroyed-in-unprecedented-wide-scale-drone-attack

On the one hand, Russia has issued the usual "nothing to see here" reaction. On the other, a significant degradation of their nuclear strike capability would be expected to provoke a very sharp response.

@notimagain, TWZ has been saying exactly the same thing about the lack of hardened aircraft shelters on western/NATO airbases for years, and they're having a bit of a "we told you so" moment in the article. 😁

Ah, air field at Olenya near Murmansk, according to that article.

Much closer to Ukraine and to, ahem, a land border with NATO's newest member. But also to the Barents Sea, which would be a very accessible shipping route for Ukraine – better than a slow boat around India and the arse of China which still wouldn't get you to inland Irkutsk.

Oh wait, just seen a Beeb update: 4 airbases, including one in Irkutsk!
A year and a half in the planning!

Slava Ukraini!

Ukraine drones strike bombers during major attack in Russia
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c1ld7ppre9vo
Belaya in Irkutsk oblast (region), Siberia
Olenya in Murmansk oblast, Russia's extreme north-west
Dyagilevo in central Ryazan oblast
Ivanovo in central Ivanovo oblast

Thanks for the TWZ links @MissConductUS

This is a stunning strike by Ukraine. As momentous as the sinking of the Moskva and the bombing of Kerch Bridge.

I see it is being likened to Russia's Pearl Harbor.

I can see why Ukraine would not have informed the US in advance. The current administration cannot be trusted to not go directly to Putin with that information. So US intelligence was probably not involved in this operation?

If Russia is denying the attack, is it because it does not have an effective response to it and is more keen to downplay its vulnerabilities instead?

That'll learn me to read to the end. Amazing pics in that TMZ article!

@blueshoes, they are now acknowledging the attacks but downplaying the damage. I think it’s from a need to minimize the effect on domestic morale and to try to look less vulnerable.

In addition to the drone footage, there will be satellite reconnaissance that will give a clear count of the destroyed aircraft.

I don't think Ukraine would have needed significant western/US intel for this sort of operation..

The location of the Long Range Bomber Force's assets were.in the public domain (including the fact they had pulled back east/north).

There are several companies offering hi-resolution imaging from orbit, and something the size of a Tu-95 is hard to hide.

The real trick, once the trucks were in place, as TMZ points out, is the terminal guidance..i.e. once the drones were out of the box how did they find the aircraft. Was that fully autonomous or were individuals in the loop, perhaps the method involved piggy backing on the Russian mobile phone network for comms with operators in Ukraine..

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-135-has-the-russian

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-1-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine conducted a large-scale and simultaneous series of drone strikes against multiple air bases in Russia on June 1.
• Ukraine continues to innovate its drone technology and tactics to achieve operational surprise and successfully target Russian military infrastructure in the rear.
• Ukraine's drone strike operation against strategic Russian aircraft may at least temporarily constrain Russia's ability to conduct long-range drone and missile strikes into Ukraine.
• Russia will likely struggle to replace the aircraft that Ukrainian forces damaged and destroyed.
• Russian officials and milbloggers continue to blame Russian leadership for failing to defend Russian military infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes — a widespread complaint throughout the war after successful Ukrainian strikes.
• Russian state media and milbloggers attempted to frame Ukraine's strikes against legitimate Russian military targets as undermining Russia's nuclear stability and as grounds for a Russian nuclear response – mirroring the Kremlin's repeated nuclear saber-rattling throughout the war that has aimed to prevent Western support for Ukraine.
• Russian officials blamed Ukraine for the collapse of two bridges and subsequent train derailments in western Russia on May 31, likely as part of efforts to justify the recent launch of Russian offensive operations in Sumy Oblast and the Kremlin's disinterest in peace negotiations to end the war.
• Russian forces conducted their largest combined drone and missile strike of the war that included over 400 drones against Ukraine on the night of May 31 to June 1.
• Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander Mykhailo Drapatyi submitted his resignation following a Russian missile strike on a Ukrainian training unit on June 1.
• Russian forces continue to adapt their strike packages in an effort to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky established a delegation to participate in peace negotiations to end the war as Russian officials continue to flout their own proposed negotiation mechanisms.
• Russian forces recently advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Toretsk.

Apparently they also managed to take out some surveillance planes; in the era of satellite info, how much difference with that make?

Second round of Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul is about to start. Ukraine has already submitted its memorandum, while Russia remains vague and insists on discussing its memorandum behind closed doors.

They're important for Russia, which has very limited satellite photo recon capabilities compared to the US or the commercial providers. Even if they use commercially available satellite images, photos taken from an aircraft provide much higher resolution simply because they are so much closer to the target.