https://knightsofthegreenshield.substack.com/p/an-india-pakistan-war-could-break?utmcampaign=post&utmmedium=web
This substack post from Sam Bidwell is an excellent summary of the risks for the UK here.
An India-Pakistan War would make Israel-Gaza look tame. There are millions of Indians and Pakistanis in this country, many of them with direct and enduring ties to their homelands. Given the weakness of the British state, protests and demonstrations could quickly devolve into rioting. Indeed, there are already recent examples of outright conflict between Indians and Pakistanis on British streets.
In August 2022, rioting broke out between Hindus and Muslims in Leicester, in the wake of an India-Pakistan cricket match. The fighting lasted for around a month, and resulted in twenty-five injured police officers, alongside forty-seven arrests. Both communities allege the involvement of extremist groups on the other side.
By the following month, the conflict spread had to Birmingham. On September 20th, video footage showed nearly 200 Muslim men surrounding the Durga Bhawan Temple in Smethwick, in protest at the attendance of Sadhvi Rithambara, a controversial Hindu nationalist speaker.
The events in Leicester paralysed the city for a month. They were prompted by a mixture of low-level tensions over the Kashmir issue, and heightened tensions over cricket. Despite this relatively weak pretext, these riots rendered an entire city ungovernable for a month. An out-and-out war between the two countries would be significantly more explosive and emotive.
Not all members of the Indian and Pakistani communities in the UK support the government of their homeland. A great many Indians are critical of Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist agenda; similarly, a great many Pakistanis deplore the government in Islamabad. However, an India-Pakistan War would likely harden nationalist sentiments amongst both communities. Even if these sentiments only took root amongst a vocal minority, these communities are now so large that this would nevertheless create significant disorder and political disruption.