Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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Putin rejects 1-month ceasefire in Ukraine. He wants a final settlement instead (read, Ukrainian surrender). Much harder now for Trump to present Zelenskyy as the obstacle to peace but I fear he'll do it anyway. https://www.ft.com/content/c169189c-4642-4037-b64f-9631ac61a7c7

https://bsky.app/profile/edwardluce.bsky.social/post/3lkaxreufsk2s

Yes, he'll do it anyway. Watch this get spun...

Wait, watch and we'll see.

Witcoff (Trump envoy) has now landed in Moscow.

Lukashenko has gone to Russia for bilateral discussions with Putin. There will be questions afterwards.

Image from Tass today.

Lukashenko arriving today. No commentary, just his reception.

Witcoff arrived at the same airport.

If the soldiers in the honour guard are wearing coats, you should too. Not that I care about Lukashenko. Perhaps it's the blubber protecting him.

X

Video is official shaky handheld Belarusian it seems.

Here's a good analysis of the balance of military power between European NATO members and the current Russian military.

How Europe’s Military Stacks Up Against Russia Without U.S. Support - Tensions in the trans-Atlantic alliance prompt the once-unthinkable question of whether the continent’s armies could fight Moscow’s forces

This is better news than I was expecting, but it may be a bit too optimistic. The Russian army is currently severely depleted, but they are rearming faster than the Europeans. The Russians also benefit from unity of command, something I think Europe would struggle with without the US.

The article does point out some serious European weaknesses, like lack of air defenses and intelligence gathering infrastructure.

@MissConductUS

Thanks for the WSJ piece..

From that:

Perhaps most critical in a fight with Russia is Europe’s lack of air defenses. Russia has demolished Ukrainian towns and cities with missiles and rockets.

True to a degree but TBF I think most towns and cities in most parts of the world (including the US) would have struggled with that Russian onslaught, not just Europe. There aren’t many metropolitan areas anywhere that have for example dedicated SAM belts for defence of the civpop or could be provided with 24/7 fighter cover.

From Putin’s current press conference: “we agree with the proposals for the ceasefire, but our position is based on the assumption that the ceasefire would lead to long-term peace, something that would remove the initial reasons for the crisis".

So do they agree to a ceasefire or not?

Surely by “removal of the reasons for the crisis” he means no independent Ukraine?

Yes. He's a snake.

@notimagain, I agree completely re US air defenses. The only US locations I'm aware of that have fairly robust air cover or ground based air defense are Washington DC and Alaska. The USAF is not generally deployed to protect the continental US. A lot of that duty is delegated to reserve units, like the Air National Guard. Florida is also a bit of an exception because of the proximity to Cuba.

Europe, on the other hand, is a lot more vulnerable to Russian air attack than we are, so needs more air defenses.

Says a lot when Putin is the one speaking some sense and asking the right questions (even if it is for a nefarious purpose!):

• how will this lead to peace
• how will the ceasefire line be policed and who will determine if there has been a violation
• what will happen with the Ukrainians in Kursk, will they be allowed to leave

I get the sense Trump hadn’t thought about any of this and just sees himself signing a bit of paper with his big sharpie.

Putin is clearly playing for time to complete the Kursk operation.

…and possibly more, this from the rolling news section of the UK’s Guardian, sorry for the block capitals in places but I’m feeling lazy and can’t be bothered to edit them out..

Comment from journalist Jakob Krupa:

“Putin’s response to the ceasefire proposals throws a number of questions back at the White House and Donald Trump.

While on-the-surface theoretically signalling his support for the ceasefire, the Russian president has raised a number of serious issues with the US proposal, including on Kursk, policing of the ceasefire, and – perhaps most significantly – on “removing the root causes of this crisis,” as he sees them.

That phrase in particular will raise eyebrows in a number of European capitals, not only Kyiv, given Putin’s previous comments on what he claimed “provoked” Russia, both in Ukraine, and even going beyond that, back to Nato’s expansion eastwards in 1997.”

Could it be the beginnings of claiming victory for the home population? The causes of the war are removed?

Root causes could mean anything, from countries leaving the USSR, National expansion, Zelenskyy being the leader, Ukraine wanting to join the EU, and so on and so on. The man needs to stop talking in riddles.

On another note is there anything more on the captured Ukranians in Kursk?

Sorry nato expansion

Putin wants a halt to outside military aid to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire agreement.

https://kyivindependent.com/putin-ready-for-ceasefire-but-demands-guarantees-depriving-ukraine-of-aid/

This confirms that resuming arms shipments and intelligence sharing with Ukraine is the most important source of leverage Trump has over Putin.

According to Putin, the proposed temporary truce must be designed in a way that it can lead to long-term peace. He said that Russia wants guarantees that Ukraine will not mobilize or train soldiers, nor receive weapons during the 30-day ceasefire.

And the same to apply to Russia?

Well indeed.

Watching the BBC 6 O’clock news and they have a dispatch from Eastern Ukraine with wounded soldiers and it’s heartbreaking.❤️‍🩹 strangely enough these men and women don’t trust Putin’s word, I wonder why.

Trump meets with Mark Rutte, and is now a supporter of NATO, thanks to the substantial new defense spending commitments made by the major European members.

Trump says ‘you have to keep NATO strong’ — as alliance chief hails prez for ‘staggering’ boost in military spending

I could point out that some clever Yank recently predicted this turn of events on this thread and was roundly told how wrong she was. 😁

Some of this is down to showing a united front to Putin in the cease fire negotiations, but some is just how Trump operates.

I think that almost anywhere bar Israel would struggle to fend off aerial attacks in any serious amounts.

Trump also told Rutte that he wants to invade Greenland by putting US soldiers there and that Canada has an arbitrary border

He’s openly threatening NATO member states to the Secretary General. It’s awful.

Two prices of news I have seen on Twitter do could be absolute rubbish. 1 in an IPSOS poll 74% of Ukrainians want to carry on the fight even without support from.The US
2 Portugal have cancelled their order.for F-35's and will replace their F16's with European replacements. They say "we have to able to rely on the predictability of our allies and with the United States that is.no longer the case"

@minsmum

The F-35 story seems to have it’s origins with the Portuguese Minister of Defence and I think (and I’m relying on Google translate) he’s not saying any order has been cancelled (the Portuguese Air Force say they want it but I’m not sure an order has been made) but he is saying they are still considering European options.

link to it here:

https://www.publico.pt/2025/03/13/politica/entrevista/nuno-melo-afasta-compra-f35-eua-causa-trump-mundo-ja-mudou-2125727

and also hot off the press:

https://www.airdatanews.com/instead-of-f-35-portugal-turns-to-europe-in-search-of-new-fighter/