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Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

1000 replies

MagicFox · 01/03/2025 19:58

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events
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183
Igotjelly · 12/03/2025 17:57

I do think it’s a bit unfair to brand folk conspiracy theorists for questioning if the Russians might have had a hand in this, particularly given the current context.

notimagain · 12/03/2025 18:15

I think it’s fair enough to put Russian State interference into the mix at some level of probability, especially ATM, but it’s a case of establishing a credible percentage.

The problem is when it becomes a wide spread belief that it’s, almost by default, the underlying reason for every accident.

We’ve seen that happen just the North Sea collision but also in other accidents over the last year or two such as the 737 freighter in Lithuanian a few months back.

It’s then almost impossible for officials to get the truth out there and accepted, because the public have made their mind up and “they must be hiding something”….

Anyhow I just stop drifting the thread off course…..

Igotjelly · 12/03/2025 21:13

I’ve got to say, Putin in his camo in Kursk isnt really giving me cease fire vibes.

blueshoes · 12/03/2025 21:57

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-11-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • The United States and Ukraine agreed on March 11 to an immediate 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine contingent on Russia's agreement, and the US reportedly restarted intelligence sharing and military aid.
  • Ukraine's allies and partners from Europe, Asia, and Oceania continue efforts to strengthen the Ukrainian military and back Ukraine with security guarantees – the most effective deterrent against future Russian aggression against Ukraine following a potential future peace agreement.
  • Russian forces continue to make confirmed advances in Kursk Oblast and have likely begun attacking Sudzha.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone strikes against Russia on the night of March 10 to 11, largely targeting Moscow Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk and Robotyne and in Kursk Oblast.
  • The Kremlin continues to expand social benefits for Russian soldiers who fought in Ukraine, including soldiers who have fought for the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk people's republics (DNR and LNR) since 2014.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
blueshoes · 12/03/2025 22:36

Reports that Russia captured 430 soldiers in Kursk.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 12/03/2025 22:45

Shit.

PerkingFaintly · 12/03/2025 22:50

Oh god.

Arayofcalm · 12/03/2025 22:52

blueshoes · 12/03/2025 22:36

Reports that Russia captured 430 soldiers in Kursk.

Oh my goodness, where did you read this?

dibly · 12/03/2025 23:30

Jesus. I thought Zelenskyy looked defeated today, no wonder.

WinterMorn · 12/03/2025 23:34

Those brave soldiers.

blueshoes · 13/03/2025 00:32

Arayofcalm · 12/03/2025 22:52

Oh my goodness, where did you read this?

BBC, Daily Mail (I know)

blueshoes · 13/03/2025 02:09

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-12-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov offered a vague response on March 12 to the US-Ukrainian 30-day ceasefire proposal.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin may hold hostage the ceasefire proposal to which Ukraine has agreed in order to extract preemptive concessions before formal negotiations to end the war have started.
  • Senior US and Ukrainian officials have said that the purpose of the temporary ceasefire is for Russia and Ukraine to demonstrate their willingness for peace and that the temporary ceasefire and negotiations to end the war are separate matters, whereas the Kremlin may intend to conjoin them.
  • Russian insider reports about the demands that the Kremlin may make before agreeing to the temporary ceasefire are in line with Russian officials' public statements in the past months.
  • US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director John Ratcliffe and Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) Head Sergey Naryshkin had a phone call on March 11 amid talks about the war in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently seized Sudzha amid continued Russian assaults in Kursk Oblast on March 12.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin visited a Russian military command post in Kursk Oblast for the first time since Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast in August 2024 — demonstrating Putin's desire to use Russia's seizure of Sudzha to project military success and strength against the backdrop of the US-Ukrainian temporary ceasefire proposal. [Hasn't mentioned the captured 430 Ukrainian soldiers]
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Toretsk and Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast and near Borova, Toretsk, and Velyka Novosilka.
Alexandra2001 · 13/03/2025 08:03

notimagain · 12/03/2025 18:15

I think it’s fair enough to put Russian State interference into the mix at some level of probability, especially ATM, but it’s a case of establishing a credible percentage.

The problem is when it becomes a wide spread belief that it’s, almost by default, the underlying reason for every accident.

We’ve seen that happen just the North Sea collision but also in other accidents over the last year or two such as the 737 freighter in Lithuanian a few months back.

It’s then almost impossible for officials to get the truth out there and accepted, because the public have made their mind up and “they must be hiding something”….

Anyhow I just stop drifting the thread off course…..

Hi speed collisions on the open sea like this are extremely rare, if the Captain hadn't been Russian, then of course the probability would be "accident"

The context here is a Russian Govt that has proven itself capable of absolutely anything at all and then denying it.

For me, the probability is Russian state involved.

No one is saying "every accident must involve conspiracy..." thats ridiculous.... though i did drop a pint glass last night..... Was Putin involved??? we'll never know but......

notimagain · 13/03/2025 08:11

@Alexandra2001

Ok, given current events I don’t want to get diverted any further down this particular rabbit hole so I’ll guess we will have to wait see, but just one last comment from me on this for now:

I reserve the right to be mighty pissed off if an inquiry/investigation by police/MAIB finds the reason for the accident is that bridge and systems were unmonitored for any reason and yet people then start saying “well the authorities would say that wouldn’t they”….

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/03/2025 08:16

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia presents US with demands for possible Ukraine peace deal, Reuters reports (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-presents-us-with-demands-for-possible-ukraine-war-deal-reuters-reports/).
These broad conditions are said to largely mirror those Russia has previously made to Ukraine, the U.S., and NATO.

⚡️ Ukraine-US talks in Jeddah concerned potential territorial concessions, Rubio confirms. (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-talks-in-saudi-arabia-discussed-potential-territorial-concessions-rubio-confirms/)

Losing foothold in Kursk Oblast would be 'politically significant,' experts say

⚡️Ukraine says it’s ready to fight in Kursk Oblast 'as long as necessary,' (kyivindependent.com/syrskyi-says-ukraine-ready-to-fight-in-kursk-oblast-as-long-as-necessary-russia-claims-to-retake-over-86-of-seized-territories/) as Russia claims to retake over 86% of seized territories.

⚡️Putin reportedly makes first visit (kyivindependent.com/putin-reportedly-makes-first-visit-to-kursk-oblast-since-start-of-ukraines-incursion/) to Kursk Oblast since start of incursion.

⚡️Russia has stepped up (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-stepped-up-attack-in-ukraines-south-over-past-two-weeks-military-says/) attacks in

⚡️30-day ceasefire deal may be struck (kyivindependent.com/30-day-ceasefire-deal-may-be-struck-within-days-rubio-says/) within days, Rubio says.

⚡️Ukraine out of ATACMS (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-out-of-atacms-missiles-ap-reports/) missiles, AP reports.
The U.S. sent Ukraine less than 40 long-range ATACMS in total, a U.S. official told the AP. According to the official, Kyiv ran out of the missiles in January.

⚡️EU parliament accuses US of 'blackmailing' (kyivindependent.com/eu-parliament-accuses-us-of-blackmailing-ukrainian-leader-in-joint-declaration/) Ukraine in joint declaration.

⚡️ Ukraine doesn't trust Russia but wants to show Trump its readiness for peace (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-doesnt-trust-russia-but-wants-to-show-trump-readiness-for-peace-zelensky-says-on-ceasefire-deal/), Zelensky says on ceasefire deal.

⚡️White House won't confirm (kyivindependent.com/white-house-declines-to-say-if-it-has-enforcement-mechanisms-for-russia-in-potential-ceasefire/) if it has mechanisms to enforce ceasefire with Russia.

Russia’s history of violating ceasefire agreements in Ukraine (https://kyivindependent.com/neglecting-security-guarantees-trump-fast-tracking-efforts-to-persuade-ukraine-to-ceasefire-with-russia/)

Kremlin quiet on ceasefire proposal, Russian milbloggers call it 'pure treachery' (https://kyivindependent.com/kremlin-quiet-on-ceasefire-proposal-russian-milbloggers-call-it-pure-treachery/)

⚡️Ukraine won't recognize (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-wont-recognize/) occupied territories as Russian as part of any peace deal, Zelensky says.

⚡️Fires reported (https://kyivindependent.com/fires-reported-at-infrastructure-facilities-in-russias-voronezh-and-rostov-regions-following-drone-strikes/) at infrastructure facilities in Russia's Voronezh and Rostov regions following drone strikes. 

⚡️ Ukraine's military 'preserving maximum of lives of our soldiers' in Kursk Oblast, Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-forces-continue-operations-in-kursk-under-heavy-russian-pressure-zelensky-says/)

⚡️Europe-bound Chinese rail shipments through Russia plummet (kyivindependent.com/europe-bound-chinese-rail-shipments-through-russia-plummet/) due to transit restrictions.
Russian restrictions and the seizure of dual-use goods have caused Europe-bound rail shipments from China via Russia to plunge, The South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported on March 11.

Ukraine Business Roundup — The foreign arms producer showing real results in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-business-roundup-the-foreign-arms-producer-showing-real-results-in-ukraine/

⚡️ 200,000-500,000 men could leave Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/200-000-500-000-men-could-leave-ukraine-after-war-ends-borders-open-minister-says/) after war ends and borders open, minister says.
Speaking at a press briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent, Chernyshov stressed the demographic challenges facing Ukraine in the fourth year of the full-scale war.

⚡️Russian intelligence recruited (kyivindependent.com/russian-intelligence-behind/) teenagers for terrorist attack in western Ukraine, SBU claims.
Russia's intelligence service blew up two teenagers it had recruited to carry out a terrorist attack in the western city of Ivano-Frankivsk on the evening of March 11, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) reported on March 12.

⚡️ Russia suspected of killing 5 (kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-executed-five-ukrainian-pows-in-kursk-oblast-ombudsman-says/) Ukrainian POWs in Kursk Oblast.

⚡️Journalist Viktoria Roshchyna receives posthumous human rights (kyivindependent.com/journalist-viktoria-roshchyna-receives-posthumous-human-rights-award/) award.
Roshchyna, who died last fall in Russian captivity, received the award for her "work dedicated to portraying issues threatening the democratic order of Ukraine, which she did not compromise on, even at the risk of her personal safety."

⚡️ 5 killed, 28 injured in Russian strikes (kyivindependent.com/5-killed-28-injured-in-russian-strikes-against-ukraine-over-past-day/) against Ukraine over past day.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
Alexandra2001 · 13/03/2025 08:19

notimagain · 13/03/2025 08:11

@Alexandra2001

Ok, given current events I don’t want to get diverted any further down this particular rabbit hole so I’ll guess we will have to wait see, but just one last comment from me on this for now:

I reserve the right to be mighty pissed off if an inquiry/investigation by police/MAIB finds the reason for the accident is that bridge and systems were unmonitored for any reason and yet people then start saying “well the authorities would say that wouldn’t they”….

Yes agree, the independent investigation should be respected.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/03/2025 08:24

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russian sources told Reuters that the Kremlin leader is unlikely to accept the US proposal for a 30-day truce in Ukraine.
"It is difficult for Putin to agree to this in its current form," one source said.

“We are seeking to ensure the long-term security of Ukraine. What’s the point of wasting time on a ceasefire and a negotiated end to the war, only to see it flare up again in three, four, or six years? We are not interested in that,” US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Sky News.

🛰 Satellites can monitor the ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia, says US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
He noted that there are many “eyes” both on the ground and in the sky, including commercial satellites, making it difficult to conceal drone, missile, or artillery strikes.

The defense ministers of five countries met in Paris on Wednesday, pledging concrete steps to strengthen European defense and provide security guarantees to Ukraine.
The defense chiefs of the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Poland—Gilly, Lecornu, Pistorius, Crosetto, and Kosiniak-Kamysh—gathered for the talks.

The European Parliament has voted in favor of a resolution supporting Ukraine.
The resolution welcomes the proposal for a 30-day ceasefire and expresses hope that Russia will agree to halt all attacks on Ukraine’s civilian population and infrastructure.
Key provisions of the resolution:
• With the shift in the US position, the EU is now Ukraine’s main strategic ally and should remain its largest donor.
• The EU and its member states must significantly increase military assistance to support Ukraine’s right to self-defense.
• Ukraine should have the right to reject any agreements that could weaken its long-term security.
• Negotiations on Ukraine’s EU accession should be accelerated.
• The EU must prepare for Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction with new funding.
• Frozen Russian assets should be confiscated and used for Ukraine’s defense and reconstruction.
• The EU should implement more effective sanctions against Russia.

Zelenskyy held a press conference after talks with the U.S. in Saudi Arabia. Key points:
▫️Ukraine’s military command in Russia’s Kursk region aims to save as many soldiers' lives as possible.
▫️Ukraine agreed to the U.S. proposal for a 30-day ceasefire to avoid being portrayed as unwilling to seek peace.
▫️Ukraine will never recognize occupied territories as Russian—this remains the main red line.
▫️Elections will take place after the war ends and martial law is lifted; they will not be postponed.
▫️Security guarantees for Ukraine during a potential pause in the war were discussed with the U.S., but details will be addressed later.
▫️If Russia rejects the proposals made in Saudi Arabia, the U.S. will take "strong steps."
"I don’t know the details yet, but we are talking about sanctions and strengthening Ukraine," Zelenskyy said.
▫️Ukraine is ready to sign a framework agreement with the U.S. on rare earth metals.
"There are no behind-the-scenes deals. We are ready," he added.

The captain of the ship that rammed a U.S. Army tanker in the North Sea was Russian, Sky News reported.
The owner of the container ship Solong, which collided with a tanker carrying fuel for a U.S. air base, said the captain and part of the crew were Russian, while the rest were Filipino.
British police arrested the captain on suspicion of manslaughter after one sailor died in the collision.
The accident, which occurred on March 10, caused fires on both ships and a major fuel spill.
The incident is part of a series of maritime accidents involving Russians that have damaged NATO infrastructure. https://t.me/United24media/29865

The Canadian company Roshel has delivered 1,700 armored vehicles to Ukraine since 2022, company director Roman Shimonov said in an interview with CBS 24.
He noted that around 200 were funded by the Canadian government, while the remaining 90% were financed by the US, Europe, and Ukraine.

UNITED24Media

The captain of the ship that rammed a U.S. Army tanker in the North Sea was Russian, Sky News reported. The owner of the container ship Solong, which collided with a tanker carrying fuel for a U.S. air base, said the captain and part of the crew were...

https://t.me/United24media/29865

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/03/2025 08:30

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Overseas experts have declared Ukrainian army defeated at Kursk. The Russian side says a huge victory has been won. There’s not a lot of information from the Ukrainian side.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48776

Trump's envoy Witkoff will go to Moscow this week — White House

USAID has TERMINATED a grant agreement with the Ukrainian Energy Support Fund worth $75 million, which will lead to a reduction in funds for the purchase of critical equipment for Ukraine’s energy sector.

Washington discussed territorial concessions with Kyiv — US Secretary of State Rubio
He also stated that the US will NOT consider a mineral resources deal as a security guarantee for Ukraine.

The US and Ukraine held key negotiations in Jeddah – but how did Russia react?
Kyiv Post analyzes Russian propaganda and military blogger reactions to the recent US-Ukraine discussions in Saudi Arabia.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/48810

Overnight, Putin’s forces launched strikes on critical infrastructure across multiple regions of Ukraine. The national railway operator, “Ukrzaliznytsia,” warns of train delays and route changes. Power outages are also expected.

Polish President Duda calls on the US to deploy nuclear weapons in Poland as a deterrent against future Russian aggression — Financial Times
“The borders of NATO moved east in 1999, so 26 years later there should also be a shift of the NATO infrastructure east.”

On the morning of March 12, the Russian army launched a double missile strike on Kryvyi Rih.
One of the targets was the “Druzhba” hotel, which suffered significant destruction.
At least 14 people were injured. A woman was killed—she was simply passing by.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 13/03/2025 08:35

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

“Dismantling” Ukraine’s Government and a Demilitarized Zone in the South: The Washington Post Reveals Russia’s Maximum Demands for a Ceasefire in Ukraine.
The document analyzed by journalists was developed by a Russian analytical center closely linked to the FSB. It was drafted a week before U.S.-Russia negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
Key points:
🔴Trump’s plan to end the war within 100 days is dismissed as “unrealistic,” with the document suggesting that the war cannot end before 2026.
🔴Russia rejects the deployment of European peacekeeping forces in Ukraine and insists on the recognition of its sovereignty over the occupied territories.
🔴Russia seeks to establish a buffer zone in northeastern Ukraine along the borders with Bryansk and Belgorod regions, as well as a demilitarized zone in southern Ukraine.
🔴Russia proposes halting arms supplies to “unfriendly” U.S. countries in exchange for the U.S. ceasing military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin also emphasizes the “dismantling” of Ukraine’s government.

▪️Since the start of the Kursk operation in August 2024, Russian losses have amounted to: 54,900 killed, wounded, or captured; 90 tanks; 654 armored fighting vehicles; five MLRS; one aircraft, and more.

Terrorist attack in Ivano-Frankivsk: Law enforcement confirms that on March 11, Russians detonated their own agents.
The investigation established that the perpetrators were two local minors, aged 15 and 17, who were carrying explosives near the railway station.
The explosion killed the 17-year-old suspect, while his 15-year-old accomplice was hospitalized with severe injuries. Two bystanders were also wounded. The surviving suspect faces a potential life sentence.
The Russians remotely detonated one of the bombs carried by the teenagers, as well as a second device located in a rented apartment where they had been assembling explosives.
Additionally, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) and the National Police are considering how to classify the actions of two 15-year-old girls who were in the same group as the suspects during the preparation of the attack.

🇫🇮 Finnish Prime Minister Orpo stated that the Finnish government opposes sending troops to Ukraine to guarantee a future ceasefire.
According to him, Finland, as a country bordering Russia, cannot take such a step.

Ukrainian soldiers honored the fallen volunteer (28-year-old) citizen of New Zealand, and representative of the indigenous Maori people, Dominic Abelin – he was in International Legion of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
Ukraine Invasion: Part 55
1dayatatime · 13/03/2025 09:42

@Alexandra2001
@notimagain

"I reserve the right to be mighty pissed off if an inquiry/investigation by police/MAIB finds the reason for the accident is that bridge and systems were unmonitored for any reason and yet people then start saying “well the authorities would say that wouldn’t they”…"

But the conspiracy theory types is exactly why misinformation/ fake news is such a problem today. They operate under some illusion of superior insight about what is really happening in the world whilst everyone else are naive sheep.

Plus as we have seen " A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth can get its boots on". And because the lie came out first, when the truth does finally emerge there will always be an element of doubt to it.

People have put two and two together to make five, because a deliberate attack on an American tanker by a Russian captain on the payroll of the FSB is a more interesting story than a cock up of a ship on autopilot that had traveled in pretty much a straight line since Grangemouth colliding with a tanker at anchor without speeding up or slowing down. Oh and the "coincidence of a Russian Captain " well 11% of all international seafarers are Russian with an over representation at senior ranks.

news.sky.com/video/share-13327406

Igotjelly · 13/03/2025 10:04

1dayatatime · 13/03/2025 09:42

@Alexandra2001
@notimagain

"I reserve the right to be mighty pissed off if an inquiry/investigation by police/MAIB finds the reason for the accident is that bridge and systems were unmonitored for any reason and yet people then start saying “well the authorities would say that wouldn’t they”…"

But the conspiracy theory types is exactly why misinformation/ fake news is such a problem today. They operate under some illusion of superior insight about what is really happening in the world whilst everyone else are naive sheep.

Plus as we have seen " A lie can travel halfway around the world before the truth can get its boots on". And because the lie came out first, when the truth does finally emerge there will always be an element of doubt to it.

People have put two and two together to make five, because a deliberate attack on an American tanker by a Russian captain on the payroll of the FSB is a more interesting story than a cock up of a ship on autopilot that had traveled in pretty much a straight line since Grangemouth colliding with a tanker at anchor without speeding up or slowing down. Oh and the "coincidence of a Russian Captain " well 11% of all international seafarers are Russian with an over representation at senior ranks.

news.sky.com/video/share-13327406

Don’t appreciate being called a conspiracy theorist thanks 👍

Igotjelly · 13/03/2025 10:18

“The Kremlin would consider that kind of move as a direct involvement into the conflict, the ministry added.Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia would take what she called appropriate measures if any country attempted to deploy its troops.”

Its exactly the same rhetoric as we’ve seen the whole way through and should be dismissed in the same way as it was when long range strikes etc were authorised.

Edit - sorry missed the first part of the context, they’re talking about European peacekeepers in Ukraine.

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