Ukraine Invasion: Part 55

[MagicFox]

We're on 55. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦 That last one went quickly!

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I wonder if we’ll see another mass exodus of refugees given that without US aid some analysts say Ukraine could have as little as 6-12 months left.

In the event of a collapse, there would be a long term insurgency. American contractors would of course be prime targets.

Must do some work. I'd like to say that I'll try not to look but a lot of what I am doing is linked to the USA not being a reliable trading partner that needs to be progressively ditched.

Hold strong.

Not surprised, this is enough to affect anyone's mental health.
One of my brother's friends has gone over to Ukraine, trying to join one of the foreign volunteer units (though apparently there is difficulties with that) and that worries me even though I don't know this person at all.

I'm not depressed or despairing; I am angry.

Fuck Trump and his supporters. Judging by the firesale DOGE is making of the federal Government, they are going to have a lot of internal problems cropping up soon.

In the meantime, Europe must to step up. If us randoms on the Internet could see the writing on the wall last year, I hope someone with knowledge in NATO has game-planned this scenario.

Also angry. I wish the European collective - including Canada and any other allies in that - hello Mexico wanna join us? - would just admit that any 'alliance' we had with the US is currently not worth the paper it was written on and we need to act outwith it.
My daily loathing for Trump and Co knows no bounds. And all the idiots on X saying he's doing exactly what we wanted, America first! So hard but I restrain myself from responding at all, there's no point.

Yep, also angry but also slightly obsessed with getting updates in a way that isn’t entirely healthy. Europe of course need to step up and has for years (I advocated at the start that the whole of the west needed to give Ukraine what it needed to win this war); but the level of betrayal from the US cuts deep - particularly if they are planning to lift sanctions against Russia at the same time as stopping supplies to Ukraine.

Yes @dibly It's the betrayal that really cuts deep

I feel sick and angry

Poor Ukrainians

@1dayatatime with respect, you’re getting on my last tit.

as of right now, this is the Kyiv Independent's report of the current situation re US military aid

"⚡️US military aid continues to flow (https://kyivindependent.com/us-military-aid-continue-to-flow-as-of-evening-of-march-3-ukraines-prime-minister-shmyhal-says/) as of the evening of March 3, Prime Minister Shmyhal says.
The statement comes after several media outlets reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a suspension of all military aid to Ukraine."

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

⚡️BREAKING: Trump halts military aid (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-halts-military-aid-to-ukraine-media-reports/) to Ukraine, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️US military aid continues to flow (https://kyivindependent.com/us-military-aid-continue-to-flow-as-of-evening-of-march-3-ukraines-prime-minister-shmyhal-says/) as of the evening of March 3, Prime Minister Shmyhal says.
The statement comes after several media outlets reported that U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered a suspension of all military aid to Ukraine.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

⚡️Trump-Putin summit now being 'fast-tracked (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-trump-summit-now-being-fast-tracked-cnn-reports/),' CNN reports.

⚡️US deliberately orchestrated (https://kyivindependent.com/us-deliberately-escalated-tensions-during-zelenskys-white-house-visit-merz-says/)Zelensky-Trump Oval Office clash, Friedrich Merz says.

⚡️ Ursula von der Leyen announces (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-introduces-rearm-europe-plan-to-boost-european-defense-capabilities/) ReArm Europe plan to boost European defense capabilities.

⚡️Ukraine committed to work with US, Europe to end war (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-committed-to-work-with-us-europe-to-end-war-as-soon-as-possible-zelensky-says/)'the soonest possible,' Zelensky says.

⚡️Europe’s major powers consider seizing frozen Russian assets (https://kyivindependent.com/europes-major-powers-consider-seizing-frozen-russian-assets-in-ceasefire-talks-ft-reports/) in ceasefire talks, FT reports.

⚡️ Russia trying to break through (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-trying-to-break-through-border-in-sumy-oblast-cut-off-logistics-routes-of-ukrainian-forces-border-guard-says/) border in Sumy Oblast, cut off Ukraine's Kursk logistics routes, Border Guard says.
Russia is attempting to enter Ukrainian territory with assault groups in the direction of the village of Novenke.

⚡️Trump administration weighs sanctions relief (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-administration-weighs-sanctions-relief-for-russia-reuters-reports/) for Russia, Reuters reports.
The White House has directed the State and Treasury departments to compile a list of sanctions that could be lifted, according to sources. While internal government offices routinely prepare such options, the White House’s direct request signals a serious consideration of sanctions relief.
⚡️ Pentagon denies (https://kyivindependent.com/pentagon-denies-halting-cyber-operations-against-russia-bloomberg-reports/) halting cyber operations against Russia, Bloomberg reports.

The Record previously reported that U.S. Cyber Command was ordered to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia.
The Record previously reported that U.S. Cyber Command was ordered to suspend offensive cyber and information operations against Russia.

⚡️ Russia plans to launch 500 kamikaze drones (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-plans-to-launch-at-least-500-drones-in-ukraine-in-one-aerial-attack-ukraines-intelligence-says/) per day at Ukraine, HUR says.
Russia currently uses 150 to 200 drones per attack against Ukraine, but Russian forces plan to increase their capabilities to 500, Vadym Skibitskyi said.

⚡️ 'A tragedy (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-training-ground-during-formation-resulting-in-mass-casualties-ukraines-military-says/)' — Russia strikes Ukrainian military training ground during exercises, Drapatyi says.
A day earlier, news of a Russian attack with an Iskander-M missile on a training ground in the village of Cherkaske near the regional center of Dnipro began circulating on social media.

⚡️ Ukrainian drones reportedly strike (https://kyivindependent.com/drones-reportedly-attack-oil-refinery-in-russias-samara-oblast/) oil refinery in Russia's Samara Oblast.

⚡️EU weighs satellite alternatives (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-weighs-satellite-alternatives-for-ukraine-amid-starlink-concerns-politico-reports/) for Ukraine amid Starlink concerns, Politico reports.
Ukraine had shown interest in alternative satellite options, including Govsatcom, a shared network of EU national government satellites, and IRIS, a new constellation expected to be operational in the 2030s, according to European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier.

⚡️Ukraine bonds drop sharply (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-bonds-drop-sharply-following-trump-zelensky-argument-reuters-reports/) following Trump-Zelensky argument, Reuters reports.

Attacks on Ukraine’s draft officers on the rise (https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-on-ukraines-draft-personnel-rise-fueled-by-social-tension-and-russian-interference/), fueled by social tension and Russian interference
As Ukraine steps up its mobilization efforts, attacks on personnel are becoming more frequent, driven by escalating social tensions as the war drags on.

⚡️Sanctions, shrinking exports spark crisis (https://kyivindependent.com/sanctions-shrinking-exports-spark-coal-crisis-in-russias-kemerovo-region-media-reports/) in Russia's coal industry, media reports.
Financial troubles have forced eight coal companies in Russia's Kemerovo Oblast to halt operations, leaving hundreds of miners without pay for months, according to Goernor Ilya Seredyuk.

⚡️ Oil prices continue to decline (https://kyivindependent.com/oil-prices-continue-to-decline-amid-growing-tensions-between-us-ukraine-reuters-reports/) amid growing tensions between US, Ukraine, Reuters reports.
A day earlier, oil prices fell by about 2%, hitting a 12-week low

⚡️Ukraine brings back 7 children (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-brings-back-7-children-from-russia-occupied-territories/) from occupied territories, Russia.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-6-injure-26-over-past-day/) 6, injure 26 [frmm 2-3 March 2025].

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-2-injure-11-over-past-day/) 2, injure 11 [3-4 March 2025]

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - MAR 4, 2025
■ Fewer engagements but casualties stay above the 7-day average
■ Relatively modest equipment losses
■ Few 🇷🇺 airstrikes, improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️EU leaders have suspended work on a €20 billion aid package for Ukraine due to opposition from Hungary, Politico reports.
Budapest blocked a draft document on security guarantees and new military aid for Ukraine the day before.

❗️European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has unveiled an €800 billion plan to strengthen the EU’s defense capabilities and support Ukraine.
In a letter to European leaders ahead of the EU summit, she outlined a five-step strategy for Europe's rearmament.
The first step is freeing up public funds to finance national defense.
The second involves a new instrument providing €150 billion in loans to EU member states for investments in air defense, artillery, missiles, ammunition, drones, and joint equipment procurement.
The third step is leveraging the EU budget to direct funds toward defense investments in the short term.
The final two steps focus on mobilizing private capital by expanding the investment market and utilizing the European Investment Bank for defense-related financing.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has stated that his government is open to considering future proposals regarding Ukraine, including the possibility of sending military personnel.
Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Australia has provided Ukraine with $808 million in military assistance, around $150 million in other aid, and has imposed sanctions against Russia.

🇬🇧 The British government says that there is no agreed vision for the idea of a “partial ceasefire,” which Macron spoke about as his own and British Prime Minister Starmer.

Address by the Leadership of the Ukrainian Parliament — Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, Parliamentary Factions, and Groups to President Donald Trump, the United States Congress, and the American People
The contribution of the United States of America as Ukraine’s strategic partner has been of decisive importance among international allies in supporting our nation during the most challenging times in its history.
On behalf of the Ukrainian people, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine expresses its profound gratitude to President Donald Trump, the United States Congress, and the American people for their firm and consistent support of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as for the security assistance packages provided to Ukraine, which have helped stabilize the situation on the frontline.
Ukraine deeply respects the aspirations of the great American people toward the comprehensive restoration of the United States’ global leadership. At the same time, we firmly believe that the leadership of the United States on the international stage is inseparably linked to the defense of the ideals of freedom and democracy, adherence to international agreements, and reliability in relations with allies and friends.
We are convinced that the security and stable development of our nation are ensured by the unwavering support of the United States and reflect the values that have been the foundation of America’s historic success, inspiring millions of Ukrainians.
At present, this support is more crucial than ever for the Ukrainian people and the Security and Defense Forces of Ukraine, as well as for ensuring security and stability across the entire European continent.
The Ukrainian people desire peace more than anyone else in the world and believe that the personal role of President Donald Trump and his peacekeeping efforts will be decisive in the swift cessation of hostilities and the achievement of peace for Ukraine, Europe, and the entire world.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine welcomes President Donald Trump’s initiatives to launch a negotiation process aimed at securing peace.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine underscores the necessity of further developing the strategic partnership with the United States, particularly in the exploration of critical minerals.
The Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine reaffirms that Ukraine must remain an independent and sovereign state, and the Ukrainian people—free and unconquered.

Chief Rabbi of Ukraine Moshe Reuven Azman has defended Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, whom Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called a “pure Nazi” and a “traitor to the Jewish people,” and stressed that there is no ethnic conflict in Ukraine, and anti-Semitism is considered a criminal offense.
[...] He noted that modern Nazis are those who want to wipe out other states, such as Israel. Iran and Hamas, which are supported by Russia, want to destroy the latter. [...]
He also added that only the Jewish people can decide who is a hero and who is a disgrace to their nation.
“It is not for you to decide. You can make your own judgment in your country, but we, the Jewish people, will decide for ourselves,” the rabbi emphasized.
Azman recalled that the Russians killed his adopted son Anton and took thousands of innocent lives with their invasion of Ukraine, and he would pray for a “just verdict” for their actions.

I think @1dayatatime is making a very valid point (albeit repeatedly) and is, in my view, just trying to temper the debate around the US. Don't get me wrong, there is no excuse for Trump and Vance's display of sickening behaviour but the truth is that a lot of the promised aid - ammunition and equipment- hasnt been making it to Ukraine's frontlines, according to my frontline volunteer contact. For instance, the vast majority of drones have been purchased by private individuals or domestically produced by private enterprises and 90% of pickups at the front lines have been donated by private individuals. So somewhere along the lines of aid supply, there is a black hole.

I learned from my friend in Kharkiv that a whole battalion we had previously supported has entirely disappeared due to lack of artillery and equipment. This isn't just shells but basic equipment like camouflage nets. Ukrainian soldiers are literally trying to stop tanks with just a machine gun in their hand and they are retreating (deserting according to their command) and face up to 8 years in prison for doing so.

Ukraine is less than perfect, and corruption in Zelenskyy's entourage (not Zelenskyy) is a known issue amongst Ukrainians. Europe has rested on its laurels for far too long. The current US administration is behaving despicably. Nonetheless, we do need to consider that many things can be true at the same time and it doesn't have to detract from the fundamental premise that Ukraine is the victim, Russia is the aggressor and must be stopped.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

A Russian missile hit a Ukrainian military training base, reportedly KILLING 150 Ukrainian soldiers and 30 Foreign instructors.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/48161

Trump personally asked Putin to mediate nuclear talks with Iran. And Putin agreed — Bloomberg
Trump made the request during a phone call, and US-Russia delegations continued the discussions in Saudi Arabia.

Trump’s decision to freeze military aid to Ukraine triggers strong reactions from Western leaders.
Kyiv Post gathers reactions from politicians and public figures.
www.kyivpost.com/post/48222

This mineral deal will be signed in SHORT order — US Representative Fitzpatrick after a conversation with the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Yermak

Zelensky can return to the Oval Office when he seriously wants to talk about peace. The door is open — US Vice-President JD Vance
Key statements:
▪️At his meeting with Trump, Zelensky showed unwillingness to engage in the peace process.
▪️A Ukraine peace deal “won’t make anyone happy,” and both sides will have to make concessions. “You can’t walk into the Oval Office demanding only security guarantees while refusing to discuss what Ukraine is willing to concede.”
▪️European leaders publicly declare unconditional support for Ukraine, but privately admit the war cannot go on forever and that Zelensky must come to the negotiaing table.
▪️The best security guarantee for Ukraine is to “give Americans an economic perspective.”

In this highly mobile war keeping Ukraine’s armored and lightweight combat vehicles on the road is essential.
Kyiv Post takes a closer look.
www.kyivpost.com/post/47951

Wounded Ukrainian soldier crawls through minefields for three days to escape Russian-occupied territory while his comrades had already begun preparing his funeral.
Against all odds, he made it back.
www.kyivpost.com/videos/48172

“Europe has spent more money buying Russian Oil and Gas than they have spent on defending Ukraine —BY FAR!” — Trump [on this, he's right I believe]

Trump announced something big for tomorrow night and said he is the only US president who didn’t give any of Ukraine’s land to Putin.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

❗️The suspension of military aid to Ukraine affects all planned but yet-to-be-executed deliveries, including those under the long-term USAI support program.
This was reported by Voice of America journalist Ostap Yarysh. The primary focus is on air defense missiles, ammunition for HIMARS, and artillery shells.

Approximately 620,000 Russian troops are stationed in the occupied territories of Ukraine and in Russia’s Kursk region, according to Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR).
Over 200,000 of them are assault units actively engaged in combat. 35,000 troops from the Russian National Guard (Rosgvardiya) are responsible for securing key facilities and enforcing the occupation regime.
Skibitskyi noted that Russia has no issues replenishing its forces, as recruitment targets for January were exceeded by 107%.
Currently, Moscow’s priority areas are Pokrovsk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kupiansk.

❗️Trump does not consider the Ukrainian mineral deal “dead.”
He sees it as a good deal for America, arguing that Ukraine should compensate for the aid provided by the previous U.S. administration. At the same time, he emphasized that Zelensky should be more grateful for it.

Tragedy at the Training Ground: Ukrainian Ground Forces Unit Hit by a Missile on March 1
There are casualties and injuries following a missile strike on a Ukrainian Ground Forces unit.
Commander of the “Khortytsia” Operational-Strategic Group, Mykhailo Drapaty, stated that “we are witnessing untimely decisions and unlearned lessons” and assured that he is personally overseeing the investigation. Authorities are currently verifying details and establishing the circumstances of the incident.
Journlist Yuriy Butusov reported that Russians struck a training ground in Dnipropetrovsk region with a missile, killing over 30 people and injuring 130 others. According to him, the 168th Reserve Battalion was stationed at the site, with nearly all soldiers being those who had returned from SZCH (self-sustained combat missions).
Blogger and volunteer Serhiy Sternenko claimed that a Russian reconnaissance drone corrected the strike.
Russia’s Defense Ministry stated that an Iskander-M missile system targeted what it alleged were locations of Ukraine’s 157th Mechanized Brigade.

Over the past week, Russia has launched more than 1,050 attack drones, nearly 1,300 aerial bombs, and over 20 missiles at Ukraine.

Overnight, Russians attacked an eco-park in the suburbs of Kharkiv.
As a result of the shelling, enclosures were destroyed, and animals were killed. Reports indicate that the strike hit near the petting zoo.

Ukrainian journalist Viktoria Roshchyna was brutally tortured in Russian captivity, according to an investigative film by Slidstvo.Info.
Roshchyna was captured by Russian forces in August 2023. Initially, she was detained and held in torture chambers in the occupied Zaporizhzhia region before being transferred to Taganrog. The journalist was imprisoned without any formal charges against her.
Investigation details:
A former cellmate of Viktoria revealed that her body bore knife wounds and that she was tortured with electric shocks. Over time, Roshchyna began losing weight rapidly.
“Vika weighed around 30 kilograms. I had to help her stand up because she was in such a condition that she couldn’t even lift her head from the pillow. First, I would lift her head, then Vika would grab the bed handle, and only then could she manage to stand,” her cellmate recounted.
According to witnesses, when a Russian ombudsman visited the detention center where they were held, Viktoria was hidden and moved to a locked room on another floor. She was last seen on September 8, 2024, when she was taken from her cell in an unknown direction.
In October 2024, Russia’s Ministry of Defense sent a letter to the journalist’s father, stating that Viktoria had died in captivity.

@dibly

"Europe of course need to step up and has for years (I advocated at the start that the whole of the west needed to give Ukraine what it needed to win this war); but the level of betrayal from the US cuts deep"

Actually I'm more angry with the Europeans than I am with the US.

At least the US gave 60 years notice to Europe about upping their defence spending, they gave 12 months warning that they would pull military aid from Ukraine. And still Europe did nothing to increase their defence spending.

I can see it from the US perspective that why should they spend their taxpayers money in a European war when the Europeans aren't. Why should the US be expected to put their soldiers lives at risk backing a peace deal when the Europeans aren't.

The warning signs that the US were going to walk off the "job" have been evident for over 12 months and
I'm getting increasingly frustrated that whilst European NATO nations make grand speeches about standing shoulder to shoulder with Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression what the brave Ukrainian soldiers risking their lives on the frontline need is ammunition not speeches. And right now the only place that can come from is Europe and time is fast running out.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c981p3dxnent?post=asset%3A218e9040-c13c-48e7-820c-84ba7e8ca061#post

@Hillsmakeyoustrong

"I think @1dayatatime is making a very valid point (albeit repeatedly)"

Fair point- I'll shut up now!!🫢

Apologies to all for sounding like a scratched record but I'm just incredibly frustrated and angry that time is fast running out for Ukraine.

If Ukraine does go under (and I really really hope it doesn't) then I'm sure that many in Europe will conveniently just pass the blame on to Trump and the US rather than accepting any blame themselves.

In any event the blame game would be irrelevant to all the frontline lives lost and the hostile occupation of an innocent country.

@1dayatatime I think you're right. I think Europe has sleepwalked into this thinking that the US had our backs and always would, and that that has proved to be a childish and irresponsible position to take.
Ultimately any unthinking dependence is not wise.

It's a good idea not to rely on the unreliable, certainly.

Is Trump going to scrap some sanctions on Russia so they put a word in for him to Iran?

The Trump administration has stooped lower than what most Europeans imagined.

I'm expecting Trump to scrap some sanctions on Russia in return for nothing at all.

(Well, nothing for America. There might be the warm glow of Putin's approval and some business opportunities for him personally.)

Lawrence Freedman's take: samf.substack.com/p/the-great-crisis?triedRedirect=true

American tactical nukes are already stored in several locations on the continent:

https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/nuclear-weapons-europe-mapping-us-and-russian-deployments

I don't see any cause for concern if the UK is being added to the list.

The M61 is a gravity bomb, dropped from an aircraft. In an actual war scenario, it's more likely that a nuclear capable cruise missile would be used.

Since watching the video of the conflagration at the end, I have seen some video footage of the beginning of the meeting, where Zelensky greets everyone and shakes hands with them.

I have not seen the whole thing, but I am also just coming out of bout of influenza A that had me hors de combat for the last five days or so. So I don't really know how widely the whole meeting has been broadcast here.

Oh poor you. Get properly well soon, @MissConductUS .

Though honestly, semi-conscious with fever dreams may have been less unpleasant than the reality these last five days.

Good analysis. It's a shame that it's taken this for the Europeans to pull their thumbs out on defense matters.

My immediate concern about the cut off of military aid (if it's actually happened, and is not just an announcement to further pressurize people) is the loss of intelligence. Lots of countries make NATO standard ammunition, and the Ukrainians should have a few months worth on hand.

Any cutoff of intel support would have two immediate effects - loss of situational awareness (what are the Russians doing and where are they moving) and loss of targeting data. That highly granular real time targeting data has allowed the Ukrainians to inflict huge damage on the Russians and forced restrictions on how the Russians operate. Losing that would be very damaging.