Very depressing assessment on the future of Europe by @velinatchakarova. I really hope we can avoid the worst of this:
‼️The Hard Geopolitical Truths No One Wants to Hear in Europe ‼️
You won’t hear this at the fancy summits in Munich, Paris, or Brussels—but I’ll say it anyway.
The full-scale war Russia launched against Ukraine in 2022 is not just about imperial ambitions. It’s been a calculated move to secure pole position in the systemic rivalry between the U.S. and China while dismantling the European security order of the past 30 years.
Europeans still refuse to acknowledge that Russia’s war against Ukraine isn’t just fought on the battlefield. Since February 24, 2022, Moscow has been waging a non-kinetic war against Europe—weaponizing commodities (energy, food, fertilizers), migration flows, and hybrid warfare, including sabotage operations, and last but not least, nuclear blackmail.
So why hasn‘t Europe been fighting back? Ignorance, moral decay, lack of awareness, zero sense of urgency, a complete detachment from reality, and sheer complacency.
Meanwhile, China and Russia didn’t suddenly “come closer” three years ago—they’ve been strategically coordinating across all key domains for over a decade. The West ignored this and is still in denial, calling it a “marriage of convenience” or dismissing Russia as China’s “junior partner.” But the DragonBear modus operandi of strategic coordination in systemically relevant domains is working to dismantle the global order and is building a powerful geopolitical and geoeconomic counterweight to the U.S.
Russia seeks to dominate Europe, while China asserts control over the South China Sea and Taiwan. Together, they are locking down Eurasia and the Arctic’s new maritime trade routes.
Against this backdrop, Europe’s so-called “strategic autonomy” died the moment Russia attacked Ukraine.
Europe’s Grand Promises vs. Reality
•Germany’s promised “Zeitenwende” never happened.
•Europe imposed massive sanctions on Russia—then allowed Moscow bypass them through proxies.
•Over €150 billion in aid to Ukraine—yet Europe failed to launch a war economy, missing the chance to mass-produce weapons and ammunition in the Balkans and Central-Eastern Europe. Instead, Russia secured more reliable arms suppliers: North Korea, Iran, and China.
•The West failed to deliver the military aid it promised. Europe never reached a strategic consensus that Ukraine must regain its 1991 borders.
•Russia’s international isolation never happened. Moscow strengthened its ties across Asia, Africa, and Latin America, securing resources, markets, and diplomatic support in the Global South.
The result? Ukraine is heading toward a frozen conflict—losing 18% of its territory while being further destabilized and left vulnerable to future Russian subjugation goals.
Europe: From a Global Power to the “World of Yesterday”
Europe is becoming a geopolitical backyard, watching the world reshape itself without a seat at the table.
The next stage? The Bifurcation of Europe.
•A new Iron Curtain will emerge along NATO’s Eastern Flank.
•As Russia accelerates its militarization and the U.S. shifts focus to the Indo-Pacific, Europe will turn into a battlefield of dog-eats-dog world.
•Smaller states will pivot toward the U.S. in exchange for security guarantees.
•Meanwhile, major European powers—Germany, France, and Brussels—may try to accommodate the DragonBear, trading geopolitical influence for economic stability.
•Others will be trapped in the middle, oscillating between America and the DragonBear in this Cold War 2.0.
The final nail in the coffin? A fragmented, balkanized Europe, with geopolitically insignificant states losing global relevance. The longest peace project on the continent—Europe’s security order—is disintegrating before our eyes.