Ukraine Invasion: Part 54

[MagicFox]

We're on 54. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦
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Europe's collective economic output is roughly ten times that of Russia. If there is the political will to substantially ramp up defense spending, there's no reason it can't. Poland, not considered a particularly wealthy country, has found the political will to do so because it is more at risk from a resurgent Russia, as are the other former Soviet states.

I think Europe assumed Trump's first term was an aberration, and when Trump lost in 2020, they could sit back and relax again. That mistake has put them at serious risk.

I'm appreciating Keir's speech

its a direct copy of what he said earlier in the commons. We should be under no illusions, he’s putting the country on notice.

Is there any general itemisation of what this spending is for? I have been otherwise engaged preparing for a meeting in S E Europe where responding (in business senses) to reckless America while Russia grinds forward is part of the agenda.

Hybrid warfare:

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/feb/24/former-brexit-party-mep-nathan-gill-in-court-bribery-charges

A former leader of Reform UK in Wales agreed to receive money to make statements “benefiting” the Russian narrative on Ukraine while serving as an MEP, a court has been told.
Details of the allegations against Nathan Gill, who served as a member of the European parliament for Ukip and later the Brexit party from 2014 to 2020, were laid out at Westminster magistrates court on Monday.

Police stopped him at Manchester airport on 13 September 2021 after he had been “tasked” on at least eight occasions to make specific statements in the European parliament and to news outlets concerning Ukraine, the court heard.
Reading the charges to the court, Richard Link, a Crown Prosecution Service solicitor, said Gill stood accused of accepting payment to “make statements [which] had a particular narrative that would have been seen to benefit Russia in relation to events in Ukraine at the time”.
Link said it was alleged that Gill “agreed to receive or accept money” in contravention of the Bribery Act.
Gill, 51, who lives in Anglesey (Ynys Môn), has been charged with one count of conspiracy to commit bribery under the Criminal Law Act 1977, and eight counts of bribery under the Bribery Act 2010. He denies the charges.
The senior district judge Paul Goldspring told Gill that he was sending the case to the Old Bailey and instructed him to appear there on 14 March.

Nothing specific listed because really there’s not a lot of new money on offer.

All KS has really done is try and achieve the previously promised 2.5% figure earlier than planned…probably a handy thing to do prior to his visit to the US.

I can’t find any proper analysis yet by the likes of RUSI but some comment I’ve picked up in the MSM, e.g. via the Guardian’s live blog confirms some earlier suspicions:

<<<Shashank Joshi, the Economist’s defence editor, is making the same point “.. [ as Mark Urban, another long time defence correspondent] “
on social media.

The UK’s ‘2.5% of GDP by 2027’ announcement is welcome. But let’s be clear. That trajectory essentially allows the MoD to maintain programmes & plug growing holes in existing force structure, rather than any dramatic change, such as backfilling for American assets in Europe.
More dodgy maths, too. “An extra 0.2% of GDP is around £6bn [i.e.] the cut to the aid budget. Yet [Starmer] trumpeted a £13 billion increase in defence spending...seems to make sense if one thinks the defence budget would otherwise have been frozen”>>>

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2025/feb/25/yvette-cooper-labour-mike-amesbury-keir-starmer-conservatives-kemi-badenoch-uk-politics-live-news-updates

I get the impression that Starmer is holding off until the defence review is in. We really need more urgency. This reminds me of Covid. By the time it hit mass crowds in Korea, I knew it would arrive in Britain and we would be unprepared. I'm a random member of the public.

Right now, I'm seeing a fearful bunch of Governments, scared to spend on defence because they are debt-filled to the eyeballs with heavy welfare obligations. Unfortunately, if we don't appear strong now we will have to spend x10 later to avoid weakness whrn war does come to our doorstep. Russia will take it an invitation to do what they like.

Agree, the time to up our defence spending was exactly 3 years ago at an absolute minimum. It’s like we’re watching them all drop dead of Covid in China but still refusing to shut our borders!

The UK’s ‘2.5% of GDP by 2027’ announcement is welcome. But let’s be clear. That trajectory essentially allows the MoD to maintain programmes & plug growing holes in existing force structure, rather than any dramatic change, such as backfilling for American assets in Europe.

Don't expect any cheering from the Pentagon over a 0.2% of GDP increase in defense spending. With luck, that will cover the cost overruns on the Ajax program for a few years. Maybe you should just buy Bradleys. 😁

What can we do about this though? Writing to your MP seems so woefully inadequate.

Ukrainian sources suggesting that the mineral deal with the US has been agreed. Will be very interested to see what’s in the small print and how different it is from the initial proposal.

@MissConductUS

With luck, that will cover the cost overruns on the Ajax program for a few years.

Yep..with luck…maybe…for those wondering what the comment about Ajax is about:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/british-armys-greek-tragedy

https://www.forcesnews.com/services/army/it-may-be-late-its-punchy-ajax-starts-get-rolled-out-across-army

Apologies, all. I should have explained what Ajax is and its history of development problems. To be fair, the Bradley was almost discontinued as a hopeless money pit in the first few years.

The WSJ has a good round-up of the reaction across Europe:

Trump, Not Putin, Forces Europe to Get Serious About Defense - European nations rushing to spend more as America threatens to withdraw its protection

Better late than never, I suppose.

But then what?

As you say, need to see the small print. I just don't see any connection between a deal saying eg "hand over concessions to your mineral resources, and the US might feel inclined to be helpful to Ukraine at some point in the future – or it might do nothing, or it might do something ultimately harmful to Ukraine,"
and Russia withdrawing its troops from Ukraine and ceasing to attack Ukraine.

The US isn't the boss of Russia.

So this doesn't have the ability to be a peace deal.

Is this going to be another Canada-tariffs spectacle?

Trump thumps his chest and claims "I made a Deeeeeeealllll!", and nothing else changes?

I can’t quite work out what the deal is, it’s seems to be setting up a fund for Ukraine, it no longer contains reference to US rights over Ukraine’s resources.

Zelenskyy is travelling to Washington on Friday.

Trump always asks for the moon and stars, knowing he's not going to get everything he wants. It's part of the "art of the deal".

Yes, yes, we know Trump asks for stuff.

And we can see very clearly what he wants here.

My question is what does Ukraine get out of it? Not just what's in the small print (we can see that later), but what is there that is even in Trump's gift to give it?

I'm talking about Now Ukraine. Not some future fictional Ukraine which may never come to pass.

@MissConductUS

"Trump always asks for the moon and stars, knowing he's not going to get everything he wants. It's part of the "art of the deal"."

This deal gives me a bit of a wry smile.

Firstly it is true that Ukraine has world leading deposits of titanium.

However regarding the much publicised "rare earth minerals" my understanding is that Ukraine in reality doesn't actually have the scale of rare earth deposits being claimed. In any event rare earth minerals is a bit of a misnomer - they are not actually that rare. The issue with rare earth minerals (and lithium to a lesser degree) is the energy costs and environmental issues in extracting them - that is what makes them rare. That's also why China dominates the market for rare earths because it has cheap coal fired electricity and doesn't give a crap about the resulting pollution, not because they have the majority of the world's deposits (although to be fair they do have higher than average deposits)

But hey what do I care - if it helps get US support or investment in Ukraine and ties the US closer to Ukraine then great. Plus given that Trump considers himself "the greatest businessman in history " then if he wants to invest in what I think will be a disappointment then crack on.

(I mean, all this is leaving aside the fact that a Trump contract isn't worth the paper it's written on. The guy's been stiffing people who sign contracts with him for more than half a century. It's not a bug, it's a feature – one he's proud of. Obviously there are more people involved when it's nation-state to nation-state, and they can't all be cut from that same cloth. Can they?)

Oh for heaven's sake, this is deluded. Just seen a talking head on the news saying that the US having a mineral deal with Ukraine will give it motivation to defend Ukraine and Ukraine's continued existence.

Do they not read their own news output?

Putin has offered the US access to minerals in Russian-occupied Ukraine.

Putin offers Russian and Ukrainian rare minerals to US
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4gdx7488g5o
In a state TV interview on Monday, Putin said he was ready to "offer" resources to American partners in joint projects, including mining in Russia's "new territories" - a reference to parts of eastern Ukraine that Russia has occupied since launching a full-scale invasion three years ago.

No details, and of course I wouldn't trust either to keep to any kind of deal whatsoever (you'd have to have been born yesterday to do so).

But even outlining it drives a troika and three through the supposed rationale for Ukraine to make a deal with the US.

The US is just going to sign a contract with both sides and sit back and see who wins. Then collect from the winner.

Sorry, I don't mean to snap at anyone here.

I'm just getting tetchy with all this nonsense.

Here is Trump saying it

https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lizusj4ves2x

REPORTER: What does Ukraine get in this mineral deal?

TRUMP: Military equipment and the right to fight on

@PerkingFaintly

"The guy's been stiffing people who sign contracts with him for more than half a century. It's not a bug, it's a feature – one he's proud of. "

Well I think it may well end up Trump being stiffed on this deal regarding rare earth and lithium because my understanding is that the deposits are much smaller than the US thinks they are!

As for Putin offering the US access to rare earth and lithium deposits in Russian occupied Ukraine then of course he's going to offer this as part of the negotiations because again the scale of the deposits is not true.

It's quite ironic that both Ukraine and Russia are interested in bigging up the scale of these "deposits " to get the best deal of Mr Bigly himself.

Don't apologise - I have form on this thread for being tetchy so I fully understand.

You are also quite right though the level of nonsense going on right now would in other circumstances be amusing were it not for the fact that right now there are young Ukrainians dying defending their country.