Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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"An oil depot in Engels, Saratov oblast, Russia, has been burning for the fifth consecutive day following a drone attack
The governor of the Saratov oblast stated today that the “controlled burn-off” of fuel is ongoing."

This reminds me of a cat that has fallen off a wall, licking itself industriously and pretending that it wanted to be on the ground all along.

"Controlled burn off" means watching helplessly while the fuel burns itself out. It may be another week or more before it's gone. Petroleum storage tanks in the US are surrounded by an earthen berm high enough to hold all of the oil in the tanks should the tanks rupture or leak. I would assume that the Russians do the same. So what you have at Engels is a lake of fire.

Here's the latest from our friends at The War Zone on the last aid package from the Biden administration. There's still $4B left in the pot for Trump to decide what to do with.

www.twz.com/news-features/biden-puts-forward-final-ukraine-military-aid-package-of-his-administration

The Russian State Duma has claimed it could defeat Lithuania within 24 hours and declared that “the Baltics should belong to Russia.”
This statement came from Alexei Zhuravlev, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Defense Committee, in response to Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, who stated that the Kaliningrad Region historically belongs to Lithuania Minor.
“If we are revisiting the outcomes of World War II, then the entire Baltic region should belong to Russia, as it did before the revolution. That includes Vilna, now Vilnius, which was the capital of the Vilnius Governorate of the Russian Empire since 1795,” Zhuravlev told RIA Novosti.
He also mentioned that Russia “could benefit from the Suwałki Corridor” to ensure easier access to Kaliningrad.
In typical Russian “diplomatic” fashion, Zhuravlev urged Lithuania to “keep its mouth shut,” calling its army “one of the weakest in the world” and claiming Lithuania would not withstand a confrontation with Russia “even for 24 hours.”

Day 1054 of Russias 3 day special operation invasion of Ukraine.

Good point @Llttledrummergirl, maybe it's the russian State Dumar that should 'keep its mouth shut'.

Live:Ukraine Cont.... (because I ran out of time this morning to post everything!)

🔹 President Volodymyr Zelensky stateded_ that Ukraine had offered Slovakia assistance during its adaptation to the absence of Russian gas transit, but “Fico arrogantly refused”*

“This was an obvious mistake by Fico—hoping that his shadowy schemes with Moscow would last forever,” Zelensky wrote.

He added that choosing Moscow over one’s own country, Europe, and common sense was a losing bet from the start.

Zelensky expressed hope that diversifying energy supply sources in Europe, cooperation with the European Commission, and Trump’s plan to increase U.S. gas deliveries to Europe would “help address the challenges caused by the shortsightedness of certain European leaders”.

🇰🇵 At least 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in battles against Ukraine, with another 2,700 wounded

These figures were reported by South Korean intelligence, which attributed the high number of casualties to the North Korean military’s “misunderstanding of modern warfare.”

Additionally, North Korea has been emphasizing to its soldiers the necessity of taking their own lives rather than being captured by Ukrainian forces.

🇩🇪 German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius denied media reports claiming that Chancellor Scholz is blocking an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth 3 billion euros but acknowledged that a final decision has not yet been made.

🔸 Ukrainian Special Operations Forces (SSO) repelled an assault by North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, eliminating 17 DPRK soldiers

It was noted that the battle, the date of which is traditionally not disclosed, lasted from morning until night.

🔹 Tankers carrying Russian oil have become stranded offff_ the coast of China due to U.S. sanctions*

The vessels in question are Huihai Pacific with 770,000 barrels of ESPO crude oil, Mermar with 755,000 barrels, and Olia with nearly 709,000 barrels. All three ships were subjected to U.S. sanctions on January 10.

🇱🇹Ukraine will receive 4,500 drones from Lithuania this week

Reportedly, these are the first Lithuanian-made combat FPV drones. In October 2024, Lithuania’s Ministry of Defense announced that the Lithuanian army had received the first batch of 2,300 of these drones, with around 5,000 more planned for delivery to Ukraine.

🇩🇪Ukraine has received its first RCH 155 howitzer from Germany out of a planned total of 54

“This is a signal that Ukraine can rely on us,” said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who handed over the howitzer to Ukrainian Ambassador Oleksii Makeiev at the Rheinmetall plant.

Currently, six of these systems will remain in Germany to train Ukrainian soldiers.

▪️The RCH 155 is a German self-propelled howitzer capable of firing 155mm shells at a range of up to 54 kilometers.

▪️This howitzer can move at speeds exceeding 100 km/h and even fire while in motion, making it highly effective in combat conditions. It can deliver up to nine rounds per minute.

🤡The self-proclaimed governor of the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Volodymyr Saldo, told Russian propaganda outlet TASS that “Kherson Oblast is ready to accept refugees from California, provided they did not participate in financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

🔸 Slovakian Prime Minister Fico has invited Zelensky to a meeting near the Slovakia-Ukraine border, including for an open discussion on gas supplies
*
Zelensky has responded to Fico’s proposal to meet at the border* 'Okay. Come to Kyiv on Friday.'

🪐🪐^* Subscribe to Live: Ukraine

🔹 Reuters: Coking coal production has been halted at the Pokrovsk mine due to the Russian offensive

This is the only mine in Ukraine supplying coking coal to the country’s metallurgical plants. According to sources, workers are currently only operating on the surface, and evacuation efforts are underway.

Citing DeepState, the outlet reports that Russian forces are now less than two kilometers from the mine.

🔸 A Russian Airborne Forces military hospital in Tula has burned down

Reports indicate that the cause was a short circuit. The fire spread over more than 1,000 square meters.

Rescuers evacuated 57 people, most of whom were conscripts recovering from injuries sustained during the war against Ukraine.

🔹 Russian Bryansk and its surroundings are under attack

Dozens of explosions are being reported, with some locals mentioning strikes near the village of Siltse, where there are at least two military depots and the Bryansk Chemical Plant.

Thankyou very much for the Monday roundups, @DesdamonasHandkerchief and the ISW info @blueshoes

Having a break on a Monday does help. I shove a couple of things up on Bluesky but it's not organised and that's it. Not doing more gives a day of rest!

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress ISW is no problem at all. Hope Bluesky takes off and X falls into the cesspit of history.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-13-2025

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces recently cut the T-0405 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway east of Pokrovsk and the T-0406 Pokrovsk-Mezhova highway southwest of Pokrovsk as part of their efforts to envelop Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
• Russian forces likely intend to interdict Ukrainian ground lines of communications (GLOCs) into Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad in order to force Ukrainian units to withdraw from the towns in future months.
• Russian state-owned energy corporation Gazprom acknowledged that it is considering reducing the size of its central office staff by 40 percent, indicating that Gazprom may be concerned about the long-term effects that the war in Ukraine and the reduction in Russian gas exports to Europe will have on the Russian gas industry.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Kharkiv, Borova, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Velyka Novosilka directions.
• South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS) reportedly announced that North Korean casualties in Kursk Oblast total roughly 3,000 killed and wounded.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Jan. 12 that its forces had captured the villages of Yantarne in Donetsk Oblast and Kalynove in Kharkiv Oblast. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-to-occupy-2-more-villages-in-ukraines-donetsk-kharkiv-oblasts/

⚡️Vital Pokrovsk coking coal mine halts operation (kyivindependent.com/vital-pokrovsk-coking-coal-mine-halts-operation-reuters-reports/), Reuters reports.
The Pokrovsk coal mine, one of the largest in Eastern Europe, is located 10 km (6 miles) west of Pokrovsk. The mine produces coal for coke production needed in steelmaking, which is Ukraine's second-largest export after agriculture.

⚡️Bryansk chemical plant (kyivindependent.com/bryansk-chemical-plant-hit-in-aerial-attack-russian-media-says/) hit in aerial attack, Russian media says.
The Bryansk chemical plant produces gunpowder and explosives and is a key enterprise of the Russian military, according to Andrii Kovalenko, head of Ukraine's counter-disinformation center.

⚡️ Drone strike reportedly targets Russian chemical plant in Tatarstan (kyivindependent.com/drones-reportedly-attack-russian-chemical-plant-in-tatarstan/), causing fire.
A drone attack targeted Russia's Kazanorgsintez plant in Kazan, Tatarstan Republic, during an overnight attack on Jan. 14, with drone wreckage causing a fire, several local Telegram channels claimed.

⚡️Drone attack damages industrial facility (kyivindependent.com/drone-attack-damages-industrial-facility-in-russias-saratov-region/) in Russia’s Saratov region.

⚡️ Ukraine targets Russia's Engels airbase (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-targets-russias-engels-airbase-in-multi-day-comprehensive-operation-drone-forces-report/) in 'multi-day, comprehensive operation,' drone forces report.
Located in the Saratov Oblast, over 750 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, Engels airbase is home to Russian heavy bombers.

⚡️ Russia, Iran to sign strategic partnership agreement (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-iran-to-sign-strategic-partnership-agreement-on-jan-17/) on Jan. 17.

⚡️ Trump wants to meet Putin (kyivindependent.com/trump-wants-to-meet-putin-very-quickly-after-inauguration/) 'very quickly' after inauguration.

⚡️ German defense minister (kyivindependent.com/german-defense-minister-arrives-in-kyiv-to-discuss-ukraine-aid/) arrives in Kyiv to discuss Ukraine aid.

⚡️ NATO chief says alliance either raises defense spending (kyivindependent.com/nato-chief-says-alliance-either-raises-defense-spending-or-can-begin-taking-russian-language-courses/) or can begin taking 'Russian language courses.'
NATO should raise its current 2% of GDP defense spending goal, or the allies can begin taking "Russian language courses or move to New Zealand," Secretary General Mark Rutte jokingly told the European Parliament on Jan. 13.

⚡️ 65 oil tankers drop anchor (kyivindependent.com/65-oil-tankers-drop-anchor-after-latest-us-sanctions-against-russia-reuters-reports/) after latest US sanctions against Russia, Reuters reports.
Five of those tankers were anchoring off China and Singapore, while others were idling in the Baltic Sea and near Russia's Far East, Reuters wrote.

⚡️Oil tanker crew planned more cable sabotage (kyivindependent.com/oil-tanker-crew-planned-more-cable-sabotage-before-capture-finland-says/) before capture, Finland says.
Finnish investigators say the crew of an oil tanker accused of damaging undersea power and communication cables in the Baltic Sea were preparing to cut additional infrastructure before authorities intervened.

Ukraine’s new Kursk push (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-new-kursk-push-brings-minor-gains-concerns-rise-over-use-of-limited-resources/) brings minor gains, raising concerns over limited resources

⚡️Macron, Zelensky discuss 'practical steps' for deploying peacekeeping troops (kyivindependent.com/macron-zelensky-discuss-kursk-oblast-peacekeepers/) in Ukraine. "(W)e discussed the French initiative to deploy military contingents in Ukraine. We considered practical steps for its implementation, possible expansion, and involvement of other countries in this process," Zelensky said.

⚡️ EU announces additional $143 million (kyivindependent.com/eu-announces-143-million-in-humanitarian-aid-for-ukraine/) in humanitarian aid for Ukraine.
In addition to this sum, the EU will allocate 8 million euros ($8.16 million) to Moldova to support Ukrainian refugees and their host communities.

⚡️Germany announces first deliveries of promised RCH 155 (kyivindependent.com/germany-announces-first-deliveries-of-promised-rch-155-self-propelled-howitzers/) self-propelled howitzers. Six out of the 54 howitzers will remain in Germany to train Ukrainian personnel.

⚡️UK to finance (kyivindependent.com/uk-to-finance-production-of-air-defense-long-range-weapons-in-ukraine-umerov-says/) production of air defense, long-range weapons in Ukraine, Umerov says.

⚡️ Ukraine opens doors to foreign firms (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-opens-doors-to-foreign-firms-for-military-equipment-modernization/) for military equipment modernization.
Ukraine's government has approved a measure allowing foreign companies to participate in modernizing military equipment for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Defense Ministry announced on Jan. 13.
The initiative focuses on upgrading state aviation aircraft, ships, and their components using advanced Western technologies.

⚡️ Russia's federal budget won't fund anti-drone systems (kyivindependent.com/russia-cancels-funding-for-anti-drone-systems-at-civilian-airports-media-reports/) at civilian airports, pro-Kremlin publication Vedomosti reported on Jan. 12, citing two undisclosed sources.
The government was initially expected to spend over 11 billion rubles ($106 million) by 2028 to equip 31 airports with anti-drone defenses. [They really must be struggling for money]

⚡️ Russia's energy giant Gazprom plans major layoffs as Europe market shrinks, media reports. (kyivindependent.com/russian-energy-giant-gazprom-plans-major-layoffs-media-repots/)
The Russian energy giant Gazprom is preparing to lay off 1,600 employees from its central office as it faces significant financial losses and dwindling market presence in Europe, Russia's local 47News media outlet reported on Jan. 13.

⚡️ Fico will not (https://kyivindependent.com/fico-will-not-visit-kyiv-slovakian-lawmaker-says/) visit Kyiv, Slovak lawmaker says.
The development is the latest in an escalating conflict between Ukraine and Slovakia over Kyiv's decision to stop Russian gas transit.

⚡️Putin has failed (kyivindependent.com/us-and-allies-cant-walk-away-from-ukraine-biden-says/) to meet any of his strategic objectives in Ukraine, Biden says.
"When Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought he'd conquer Kyiv in a matter of days ... He has failed thus far to subjugate Ukraine, failed to break the unity of NATO, and failed to make large territorial gains."

⚡️Volyn exhumations in Ukraine's Ternopil Oblast to begin (https://kyivindependent.com/volyn-tragedy-exhumations-in-ukraines-ternopil-oblast-to-begin-in-april-media-reports/) in April, media reports.

⚡️ EU's Nordic, Baltic members reportedly urge lowering of Russian oil price cap. (kyivindependent.com/eu-members-russian-oil-price-cap/)
Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia have urged the European Commission to further decrease the $60 per barrel price cap on Russian oil set by the G7, Reuters reported on Jan. 13, citing their joint letter seen by the news agency.

The question isn't if China will turn on Russia, but when (https://kyivindependent.com/the-question-isnt-if-china-will-turn-on-russia-but-when/)
Russia has expended much of its Cold War arsenal on Ukraine, leaving Siberia wide open to Chinese ambitions. Siberia has the resources that China covets: not only energy and minerals, but, more importantly, water. Lake Baikal is larger than Belgium and contains 20% of the world’s fresh surface water, which North China desperately needs,” writes Sarah C. Paine, a grand strategy professor at the U.S. Naval War College, in her recent op-ed.

⚡️ For the first time, Russia labels (kyivindependent.com/russia-labels-komi-daily-as-terrorist-group-first-media-outlet-to-receive-such-designation/) independent media outlet as 'terrorist group.'

As US pushes Ukraine to lower conscription age, why won’t Kyiv draft younger men? (https://kyivindependent.com/as-us-pushes-for-ukraine-to-lower-draft-age-why-wont-ukraine-conscript-younger-men/)

What we know about North Korean POWs captured by Ukraine (

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 2, injure 19 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-2-injure-19-over-past-day/) over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪- JAN 14, 2025
■ Combat engagements & casualties stay below 7-day average
■ Artillery losses well above average
■ 🇷🇺 airstrikes up but fewest MLRS strikes since November, 2 🇺🇦 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️India plans to implement measures similar to China's by restricting sanctioned Russian oil tankers, Bloomberg reports.
Starting January 10, the restrictions will apply to sanctioned vessels chartered in Indian ports. Additionally, Indian banks will mandate certificates of origin for cargo to verify that the crude oil does not originate from sanctioned suppliers.

The European Union has approved Switzerland’s invitation to join the “military Schengen” program, the EU Council announced.
This “military mobility” initiative aims to ensure the swift movement of military personnel and assets across the EU by road, rail, sea, or air. The program is designed to eliminate border delays and streamline the transportation of troops and equipment.
Previously, Canada, Norway, and the United States were invited to participate in 2021, followed by the United Kingdom in 2022

Reports from The Times indicate that Iran is engaged in covert nuclear discussions with Russia. Ali Larijani, a senior adviser to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, is reportedly in Russia to meet with high-ranking officials. The focus of these talks is believed to be securing Russian support for Iran’s nuclear program and bolstering its air defense systems.

Ukraine has stopped coking coal production at the Pokrovske mine, a critical supplier for the nation’s steel industry, Reuters reports. As the sole domestic source of coking coal, the mine’s closure could significantly reduce steel production in Ukraine.

Ten EU countries have called for sanctions on Russian gas imports. They propose banning both pipeline and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from entering the EU to curtail revenues that Russia uses to finance its war in Ukraine.

Ukraine has sent protest notes to nations purchasing grain stolen by Russia, Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha announced.
“Russia continues to trade in stolen Ukrainian grain. Anyone who accepts it is an accomplice in the theft,” Sybiha stated. He emphasized that Ukraine has detailed data confirming the origin of the grain and its transportation routes from temporarily occupied Ukrainian ports.
Ukraine plans to notify the International Maritime Organization again about Russian vessels turning off transponders to evade detection. Sybiha warned, “If these illegal actions persist, we will take tough measures. Strict sanctions may be applied to all vessels, companies, and organizations involved.”

The Center for Countering Disinformation has confirmed that Russian propaganda is spreading a fake video attributing offensive statements about Ukraine and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Hollywood actor Willem Dafoe.
After verifying the original footage, the Center revealed that Dafoe’s speech had nothing to do with Ukraine or its president. Instead, he was discussing a film in which he starred. Propagandists manipulated the video by replacing the original audio with a deepfake recording.
This falsehood is yet another attempt to discredit Ukraine’s leadership and tarnish its reputation internationally.

😳 The Russian Federation has expressed concern over the possibility of the United States attempting to bring Greenland under control, according to Valentina Matviyenko, speaker of the Federation Council.
"It is important to prevent violations of international law," Matviyenko stated.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Orgsintez chemical plant in Kazan—three tanks in flames.
Meanwhile, Russian airports in Kazan, Kaluga, Saratov, Tambov, Penza, and Ulyanovsk [were] temporarily closed due to a massive UAV attack.

Ukrainian forces delivered a " t.me/Kyivpost_official/27614 fiery" night to several key Russian targets, as confirmed by Kyiv Post sources:
The following were hit:
▪️Aleksin Chemical Plant (Tula region): A major fire was reported after Ukrainian drones struck the facility.
▪️Ammunition depots (FAB, KAB, cruise missiles) at the "Engels" airfield (Saratov region): Drones reached their targets, and explosions continue.
▪️Saratov Oil Refinery: A large-scale fire was recorded.
▪️Bryansk Chemical Plant: Direct missile strikes caused significant fires and subsequent detonations.

Trump's team supports using $300 billion in frozen Russian assets as leverage against the Kremlin — CNN
They propose transferring the funds to an escrow account, unlockable only under a peace agreement with Moscow.

Russia tests new ‘TRUMP’ military transport drone.
www.kyivpost.com/post/45367

Why Trump’s Greenland gambit hurts the West’s case on Ukraine?
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/45302

No denial, no confirmation — The Kremlin stays silent on reports of thousands of North Korean POWs sent to Russia’s Kursk region to fight Ukraine.
www.kyivpost.com/post/45354

Tyson Fury retires from boxing after his loss to Ukrainian Usyk.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Citing DeepState, the outlet reports that Russian forces are now less than two kilometers from the [Pokrovsk coking] mine.

Tankers carrying Russian oil have become stranded off (www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-13/sanctioned-tankers-carrying-russia-oil-now-idling-off-china)the coast of China due to U.S. sanctions
The vessels in question are Huihai Pacific with 770,000 barrels of ESPO crude oil, Mermar with 755,000 barrels, and Olia with nearly 709,000 barrels. All three ships were subjected to U.S. sanctions on January 10.

A Russian Airborne Forces military hospital in Tula has burned down
Reports indicate that the cause was a short circuit. The fire spread over more than 1,000 square meters.
Rescuers evacuated 57 people, most of whom were conscripts recovering from injuries sustained during the war against Ukraine.

Air defense forces shot down 58 out of 80 drones launched by Russia overnight to attack Ukraine. An additional 21 drones were locatinally lost
The downed drones caused damage in the Sumy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy oblasts. Private houses, apartment buildings, vehicles, and personal property were damaged. No casualties have been reported so far, and assistance is being provided to those affected.

Biden’s advisors have threatened Putin with escalating the shadow war to a new level due to sabotage against the US and Europe, reports The New York Times (www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/us/politics/russia-putin-airplane-shadow-war.html)
This summer, seemingly innocent cargo began catching fire at airports and warehouses in Germany, the UK, and Poland. The US and Europe were convinced that Russia was behind these acts of sabotage.
Later, the US obtained intelligence indicating that Russia was preparing for new operations, planning to send packages by air to the US and Canada that would ignite upon unloading.
This raised significant concerns that such packages could explode mid-flight, potentially causing mass civilian casualties.
Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and CIA Director William Burns sent multiple warnings to Putin’s top aides, threatening that if the sabotage resulted in mass casualties, the US would hold Russia accountable for “aiding terrorism,” escalating the shadow war between Washington and Moscow to a new level.
The warning reached Putin and had its effect: the fires in Europe ceased. However, it remains unclear how long this will last, and there is concern that Russia may be using this time to develop more effective and covert devices.

🤡The self-proclaimed governor of the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Volodymyr Saldo, told Russian propaganda outlet TASS that “Kherson Oblast is ready to accept refugees from California, provided they did not participate in financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

🤡The self-proclaimed governor of the temporarily occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Volodymyr Saldo, told Russian propaganda outlet TASS that “Kherson Oblast is ready to accept refugees from California, provided they did not participate in financing the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).

Sums up the delusion beautifully. Twat.

Here's a bit of poetic justice.

Russian Ships Blocked from Entering Naval Base in Syria, Stranding Troops, Weapons - The Kremlin and now-exiled Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in 2017 agreed Russia should have long-term access to Tartus naval port, but the new leadership in Damascus seems not so sure.

For some reason, the new leadership in Syria, who the Russians spent years trying to bomb out of existence, doesn't want to play nicely with them now over basing rights granted by the former dictator.

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1879178953577140438 The Russians appear to have cut the wrong cable

(Link has a rogue "The" appended, so here it is fixed for full enjoyment: https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1879178953577140438 )

@minsmum re-posting the link as there was a stray 'the' at the end of the URL.

https://x.com/jurgen_nauditt/status/1879178953577140438

Slightly disturbed by the video of the 2 captured North Korean soldiers below. Their faces are so clear. One is even quoted as saying he wants to remain in Ukraine. I wonder what Kim will do to their families at home.

I know the Geneva Conventions have dropped off the radar but for interest sake:

https://blogs.icrc.org/law-and-policy/2022/06/28/shielding-prisoners-of-war-from-public-curiosity/

@notimagain appreciate the link to the Geneva Convention. Glad the ethical and moral issues involving POWs has thought through. Sadly, I reckon that the convention nowadays is mostly honoured in the breach.

Hah that's brilliant!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-14-2025

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin remains committed to achieving the original goals of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in any future peace negotiations — namely the destruction of the Ukrainian state, dissolution of the current Ukrainian government, demilitarization of Ukraine, and a permanent ban on Ukraine's future membership in NATO.
• Patrushev stated that Russia's goals in Ukraine remain unchanged and that Russia remains committed to achieving all of the goals that Russian President Vladimir Putin used to justify the full-scale invasion.
• Russian officials continue to deny the existence of a Ukrainian identity and state that is independent of Russia as part of ongoing Russian efforts to justify the destruction of the Ukrainian state.
• Patrushev stated that he believes that only Russia and the United States should engage in negotiations to end Russia's war in Ukraine, and senior Kremlin officials are also questioning the role that European countries could play in such negotiations.
• The Kremlin will likely attempt to seize on potential future Russian advances into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast for informational purposes, but these advances, if they occur, are unlikely to have significant operational impact.
• Ukrainian forces conducted a large-scale series of drone and missile strikes against military and defense industrial targets in Russia on the night of January 13 to 14.
• Ukrainian and Moldovan authorities continue efforts to find a solution to the gas crisis in Moldova as the pro-Russian breakaway republic Transnistria continues to refuse help from Ukraine or Moldova.
• Kremlin officials are attempting to exploit the energy crisis in Moldova to set conditions to justify future Russian aggression against Moldova.
• Russian federal censor Roskomnadzor reportedly caused a brief but widespread internet outage in Russia while operating restriction systems of its Sovereign Internet on January 14.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Toretsk and Pokrovsk directions.
• Russia continues efforts to bolster military recruitment efforts by offering financial incentives to those who sign military service contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD).

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Ukraine targets Russia's industrial plants, ammunition depots in 'massive' strike overnight (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-chemical-plants-refineries-warehouses-in-russia/)
Ukraine launched its "most massive" attack against Russian military and industrial facilities in a range of up to 1,100 kilometers (620 miles) overnight on Jan. 14, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces reported.
Chemical plants, refineries, and the Engels airbase's ammunition depots were successfully targeted, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent.

⚡️ Russia launches mass missile attack (kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-mass-missile-attack-against-ukraine/) against Ukraine overnight.

⚡️US, Armenia sign strategic partnership (kyivindependent.com/us-armenia-sign-strategic-partnership-agreement/) agreement.

⚡️ Germany continues talks on $3 billion aid package (kyivindependent.com/german-government-continues-discussions-on-providing-ukraine-with-aid-worth-3-billion-pistorius-says/) for Ukraine, Pistorius says.

⚡️ NATO launches Baltic Sea naval operation (kyivindependent.com/baltic-nato-states-unite-in-response-to-underwater-sabotage-including-russian-vessel-involvement/) after undersea infrastructure sabotage.
An allied summit welcomed NATO’s "Baltic Sentry" mission, aimed at monitoring, deterring, and responding to potential threats. Up to 10 NATO vessels will patrol the Baltic Sea until April, enhancing situational awareness and protecting critical undersea infrastructure.

⚡️ Seoul to consult with Kyiv on transfer (kyivindependent.com/seoul-to-consult-with-kyiv-on-transfer-of-captured-north-korean-soldiers-yonhap-reports/) of captured North Korean soldiers, Yonhap reports.

⚡️ Equipping troops takes priority over lowering draft age (kyivindependent.com/equipping-troops-takes-priority-over-lowering-draft-age-zelensky-says/), Zelensky says.
Ukraine's immediate focus is on adequately equipping its military, rather than further reducing the draft age, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Jan. 14, according to Interfax-Ukraine.
The remarks follow reports that some U.S. lawmakers and NATO allies are urging Ukraine to lower its draft age to address manpower shortages.

⚡️Zelensky addresses (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-addresses-personnel-transfer-controversy-orders-air-force-commander-not-to-reassign-specialists-to-ground-forces/) personnel transfer controversy.
President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed concerns about a recent order to transfer 5,000 Air Force personnel to the Ground Forces amid critical infantry shortages, during his evening address on Jan. 14.

⚡️ Germany to deploy Patriot (kyivindependent.com/germany-to-deploy-patriot-near-polish-hub-for-ukraine-aid/) at Poland's key hub for Ukraine aid by end of January.
Germany will deploy the promised Patriot air defenses around the Polish airport of Rzeszow by the end of January, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said during his visit to Warsaw on Jan. 13.
Monitoring group German Aid to Ukraine wrote earlier that two MIM-104 Patriot fire units and a total of 200 Bundeswehr soldiers will be deployed to Poland for an estimated six months to protect Polish airspace.

⚡️Slovak opposition announces (kyivindependent.com/slovak-opposition-announces-no-confidence-vote-against-pm-fico-criticizing-pro-russian-stance/) no-confidence vote against PM.
Slovakia's pro-Western opposition parties announced plans to initiate a vote of no confidence in Prime Minister Robert Fico's government, citing concerns over his governance and foreign policy direction, TASR news agency reported on Jan. 14.

⚡️Putin aide claims 'Moldova will become part of another state or cease to exist,' Chisinau responds (kyivindependent.com/putin-aide-claims-that-moldova-will-become-part-of-another-state-or-cease-to-exist-chisinau-responds/).

⚡️ Transnistria head travels to Russia for talks (https://kyivindependent.com/transnistria-head-travels-to-russia-for-talks-amid-energy-crisis-russian-state-media-claims/) amid energy crisis, Russian state media claims.
Will Transnistria's gas crisis lead to its collapse and reintegration into Moldova? (kyivindependent.com/will-transnistrias-gas-crisis-lead-to-its-collapse-and-reintegration-into-moldova/)
By halting natural gas supplies to Moldova on Jan. 1, Russia created an unprecedented economic crisis in the Russian-occupied part of the country — Transnistria.
The crisis prompted a question: will the breakaway region, occupied by Russia since 1992, survive without Russian gas?

⚡️EU considering ban on Russian LNG (kyivindependent.com/eu-considering-ban-on-russian-lng-aluminum-bloomberg-reports/), aluminum, Bloomberg reports.

Biden leaves nearly $4 billion in US aid to Ukraine unused. What will happen (kyivindependent.com/nearly-4-billion-in-us-aid-to-ukraine-remained-unused-what-will-happen-to-them/) to them under Trump?
Biden will be passing around $3.8 billion in the so-called Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA) to his successor — Donald Trump.
The Kyiv Independent explains what the Presidential Drawdown Authority is, how it was used, and why the Biden administration failed to use up the funds provided to him by Congress.

⚡️ Australia making 'urgent inquiries' after reports of volunteer fighter's execution (kyivindependent.com/australia-making-urgent-inquiries-about-volunteer-fighter/) in Russian captivity.
Canberra is making "urgent inquiries" about the status of Australian citizen Oscar Jenkins, a volunteer soldier captured by Russia while fighting for Ukraine, after reports of his death, the 7News outlet wrote on Jan. 14.

⚡️ Zelensky to visit Poland after ‘breakthrough (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-poland-after-breakthrough-agreement-on-volyn-tragedy-exhumations/)’ agreement on Volyn tragedy exhumations.
The Volyn massacre involved widespread violence that claimed tens of thousands of Polish and Ukrainian lives.

⚡️ Russian FSB officer found dead in Moscow Defense Ministry building, media reports. (kyivindependent.com/russian-fsb-officer-found-with-fatal-head-wound-in-moscow-defense-ministry-building-media-reports/)
Preliminary information suggests he was murdered, an undisclosed source told RIA Novosti. The pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Baza also described the death as violent, citing a deep wound in the officer’s forehead.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ JAN 15, 2025
■ Engagements below avg, casualties slightly above it
■ Record vehicle & 7-day drone losses, most land-based equipment losses of
2025
■ 🇷🇺 airstrikes stay above avg, MLRS & 🇺🇦 strikes up as well

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️Russia launched over 40 missiles in a morning strike, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported.
Key targets included gas infrastructure and facilities critical to daily life.
“More than 40 missiles were used, including ballistic ones. At least 30 were destroyed. Additionally, over 70 Russian strike drones were launched overnight. Thanks to our air defense and all involved units, we are keeping our energy system operational,” Zelenskyy stated.

Russia’s expansive Arctic oil industry is experiencing significant disruptions due to U.S. sanctions targeting tankers and storage facilities. These sanctions have effectively halted the export of crude oil from the Arctic, which had been eagerly purchased by Asian markets.
As all Arctic oil is produced exclusively for export, Russia lacks a logistical system to integrate these volumes into its domestic pipeline network. Without international buyers, the crude oil will need to be stored in floating storage facilities, complicating the situation further.

Russian users report widespread disruptions in the operation of mobile networks and various online services.
Mobile operators Beeline, Megafon, Tele2, and MTS are experiencing issues, alongside outages affecting Telegram, TikTok, Google, Steam, Twitch, and WhatsApp.
Roskomnadzor attributed the large-scale failure to a "short-term disruption in connectivity," while the operators insist their networks are functioning normally.

🇩🇪 Germany has provided Ukraine with a significant military aid package, including artillery shells, drones, and armored vehicles.
Since late December, Germany has transferred:
• 14,000 155-mm shells and 19,000 122-mm shells, along with ammunition for Leopard 1 tanks.
• 600 HF-1 strike drones, 50 VECTOR reconnaissance drones, 46 RQ-35 HEIDRUN reconnaissance drones, and 43 SONGBIRD reconnaissance drones.
• 20 mine- and ambush-protected vehicles and 11,000 120-mm mortar rounds.
Additionally, the shipment includes field glasses, woolen blankets, harnesses, and the delivery of key armored vehicles:
• 5 Marder infantry fighting vehicles,
• 9 RCT-30 Boxer wheeled infantry fighting vehicles,
• 18 RCH 155 self-propelled artillery systems,
• and 277 mine- and ambush-protected vehicles.
This support bolsters Ukraine’s defense capabilities significantly.

An OSINT analyst, MT_Anderson, has provided a damage assessment of the Engels oil terminal based on 30 cm resolution imagery from Airbus Pleiades Neo.
The analysis, shared on January 14, 2025, states:
• Six storage tanks have been damaged.
• Two active fire zones are observed.
The analyst noted an inability to release the image due to service provider restrictions but confirmed the findings based on a comparison with Google Earth data.

Germany will deploy 10 naval ships to the Baltic Sea as part of a joint patrol with Finland, Sweden, and Estonia, Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced at the NATO summit in Helsinki.
The mission focuses on protecting underwater infrastructure, such as communication cables, from potential attacks. Scholz emphasized that such threats are a key element of Moscow’s hybrid strategy.

Slovak opposition parties are calling for a no-confidence vote against Prime Minister Robert Fico, citing inaction, controversial ties, and harm to the country's foreign policy image, Aktuality.sk reports.
▫️ Progressive Slovakia leader Michal Šimečka criticized Fico for "abandoning the country during a critical time and neglecting citizens' issues."
▫️ The government's boycott of an extraordinary parliamentary session drew backlash for failing to confirm Slovakia's commitment to the EU and NATO.
▫️ Despite unified opposition efforts, they currently lack the required votes to succeed in the no-confidence motion.

Ice-class tankers transporting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the Yamal LNG plant continue to receive maintenance at European shipyards, according to the Financial Times, citing data from Kpler, an analytics firm.
Fourteen of the 15 specialized Arc7-class tankers are serviced at two main locations: Damen shipyard in Brest, France, and Fayard A/S in Denmark. These vessels are essential for transporting LNG from the Arctic, particularly in winter when demand and prices peak in the northern hemisphere.

Captured North Korean soldier reveals training methods:
"I was taught to show a captured Ukrainian soldier two pictures—a weapon and a house. If he chooses a house, he must be released, and the weapon must be handed over to the Russians," the soldier stated during interrogation.
The interrogation video, recorded in early January in Kursk, was shared by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico has criticized schoolboy Simon Omanik, who refused to shake hands with the country's President, Peter Pellegrini, and appeared at a state award ceremony wearing a ribbon in the colors of the Ukrainian flag.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

"Wagner soldiers are children compared to North Koreans," — Ukrainian soldier shares insights on North Koreans fighting in the Kursk region.
www.kyivpost.com/post/45416

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who recently visited Putin in Moscow, has declined Zelensky's invitation to discuss gas transit in Kyiv.

No more Russian blackmail — Czech Republic complete pipeline to end Russian oil dependency.
www.kyivpost.com/post/45434

He returned home for 3 days and hanged himself: an intercepted call reveals another Russian soldier's suicide after being deployed to the war.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/45417

Iran refuses to recognize Crimea or any Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian — Middle East Eye [but no link to this]

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Meanwhile, a critical situation has emerged in Ukraine’s Air Force, mobile fire groups, and other air defense units due to the mass reassignment of specialists to infantry roles. This reassignment even includes technical personnel responsible for aircraft maintenance
According to a flight engineer from one of the tactical aviation brigades, 250 personnel have already been transferred, with plans to reassign another 218. This would effectively leave the units without sufficient technical staff.
Such actions are significantly reducing the effectiveness of missile and drone detection. Service members, pilots, and their relatives are increasingly voicing concerns and recording public appeals about the issue.
The command explains this decision by citing a shortage of infantry soldiers on the front lines.

A state of emergency has been declared in Russia’s Saratov oblast following an attack on the oil refinery in Engels
Additionally, Russian media reported that debris from one of the drones fell onto a bridge connecting Engels and Saratov.

🇳🇴 The Norwegian government has declared several more regions of Ukraine as safe, meaning people living there will no longer be eligible for collective protection in Norway
The oblasts now considered safe by Norway include Cherkasy, Chernivtsi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytskyi, Kirovohrad, Kyiv (oblast, not the city), Lviv, Poltava, Rivne, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zakarpattia, and Zhytomyr.

❗️Russians targeted two critical infrastructure facilities in the Stryi and Drohobych districts of the Lviv region, reported Maksym Kozytskyi, head of the Lviv Regional Military Administration

Air defense intercepted 30 missiles and 47 enemy drones
The intercepted targets included:
🔵23 Kh-101 and Kh-55SM cruise missiles;
🔵3 Kalibr cruise missiles;
🔵4 Kh-59/Kh-69 guided air missiles;
🔵47 strike drones, while 27 more drones were lost from radar.
Russia targeted Ukrainian energy facilities, including gas infrastructure in the Kharkiv, Lviv, and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts.

Those comments on the North Korean soldiers are worth noting. They have little idea of the tactics of modern warfare but are disciplined to an enormous degree, resilient, and work together extremely well.

"A platoon leader, identified as “Oleksii,” told the NYT: “The situation worsened significantly when the North Koreans started arriving. They are pressing our fronts en-masse, finding weak points and breaking through them.”
Bondar said that DPRK troops carry out dynamic attacks, often catching Ukrainian defenders “off guard,” capturing positions even when outnumbered. He said that one of the commanders in Kursk told him, “… compared to the soldiers of the DPRK, the Wagner model of 2022 are just children – and I believe him.”"