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Ukraine Invasion: Part 53

1000 replies

MagicFox · 05/12/2024 18:14

Welcome to 53 and, as always, Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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293
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 04/01/2025 11:08

Notable comment about some indications that China held Putin back from using nukes.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 04/01/2025 12:59

That and the knowledge that if he did (try to) use them, his personal life expectancy would probably be in minutes rather than days or weeks?

Llttledrummergirl · 04/01/2025 13:24

North Korean Soldiers Sent to Assist Russia for Combat Experience
North Korea has reportedly deployed soldiers to support Russia, allowing them to gain combat experience in preparation for a potential war. This information comes from the notebook of North Korean special forces officer Jong, who was killed in Kursk by Ukraine's Special Operations Forces
.

He can surely teach a lot of his first hand experience to his comrades because a lot more of them are likely to learn how to die in battle.

blueshoes · 04/01/2025 15:37

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-3-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky outlined the conditions that must be met to push Russia to agree to a "just peace."
  • Ukrainian officials continue to signal that Ukraine is working to further increase its drone and missile capabilities in support of this goal.
  • Zelensky reiterated on January 2 that the Ukrainian Constitution and Ukrainian law prohibit Ukraine from holding presidential and parliamentary elections during periods of martial law.
  • Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that several Russian ships will soon arrive at the Port of Tartus in Syria to evacuate Russian military assets to Libya.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to support its official “Glaz/Groza” reconnaissance and strike unit coordination software package despite Russian soldiers’ continued reliance on other ad hoc communications systems.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
blueshoes · 04/01/2025 16:59

@MissConductUS is it a good thing for Ukraine that Mike Johnson got re-elected US House Speaker?

MissConductUS · 04/01/2025 23:46

blueshoes · 04/01/2025 16:59

@MissConductUS is it a good thing for Ukraine that Mike Johnson got re-elected US House Speaker?

Yes.

Johnson is a deeply devout Baptist. He changed his mind about supporting the last aid package after a delegation of Ukrainian Baptist leaders visited him in Washington and conveyed the suffering of Christians in Ukraine and convinced him that it was his moral and religious duty to support Ukraine.

blueshoes · 05/01/2025 01:24

@MissConductUS that's good to know 🙏

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 05/01/2025 05:45

I've been trying to follow the impact of Russia's halting of gas to Moldova but it seems unclear. Is all of Moldova experiencing blackouts or are they pretty much confined to Transnistria? I read that Romania has stepped in and is supplying some energy to the Moldovan government.

Igotjelly · 05/01/2025 07:56

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 05/01/2025 05:45

I've been trying to follow the impact of Russia's halting of gas to Moldova but it seems unclear. Is all of Moldova experiencing blackouts or are they pretty much confined to Transnistria? I read that Romania has stepped in and is supplying some energy to the Moldovan government.

My understanding is that it’s just Transnistria.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/01/2025 11:14

LisaJohnsonsFacebookMole · 05/01/2025 05:45

I've been trying to follow the impact of Russia's halting of gas to Moldova but it seems unclear. Is all of Moldova experiencing blackouts or are they pretty much confined to Transnistria? I read that Romania has stepped in and is supplying some energy to the Moldovan government.

Have they now. The last I heard the puppet govt in Transnistra was refusing to buy gas from elsewhere as Russia promised to supply free gas .... the implication being, as long as it goes through Ukraine.

Good way of building resentment of Ukraine among the Transnistrans.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/01/2025 11:22

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Drones reportedly target (kyivindependent.com/drones-reportedly-target-one-of-russias-largest-sea-trade-ports-in-leningrad-oblast/) one of Russia's largest sea trade ports in Leningrad Oblast.
Most of the drones that attacked Leningrad Oblast were shot down over the terminal of Novotrans, a Russian transportation and logistics company. [most, eh?]

⚡️Heavy Russian, North Korean losses (kyivindependent.com/heavy-russian-north-korean-losses-in-russias-kursk-region-zelensky-says/) in Russia's Kursk region, Zelensky says.
"In battles yesterday and today near a single village, Makhnovka, in Kursk region, the Russian army lost up to a battalion of North Korean infantry soldiers and Russian paratroops," President Volodymyr Zelensky said in his evening address on Jan. 4

⚡️German opposition suggests Scholz (kyivindependent.com/german-opposition-suggests-scholz-could-meet-putin-before-end-of-february/) could meet Putin before end of February.

As government cuts support, some internally displaced Ukrainians return home — to Russian occupation (kyivindependent.com/internally-displaced-ukrainians-struggle-to-survive-takes-some-back-to-russian-occupation/)
After nearly three years of all-out war, some internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Ukraine are opting to return to Russian-occupied areas due to the Ukrainian government’s failure to provide them with proper housing and enough financial aid to adequately resettle.

⚡️Russian soldiers near Toretsk disguise (kyivindependent.com/russian-soldiers-in-toretsk-area-disguise-themselves-as-civilians-bypass-ukrainian-positions-ukraines-military-says/) as civilians to bypass Ukrainian positions, military says.
The commander's statement comes after reports on Russian forces starting to move toward the town of Toretsk.

⚡️Drone kills Russian journalist in occupied Donetsk Oblast (kyivindependent.com/drone-kills-russian-journalist-in-occupied-donetsk-oblast-wounds-5-others-russian-media-reports/), wounds 5 others, Russian media reports.

⚡️Transnistria urges residents to heat (kyivindependent.com/russian-installed-government-of-transnistria-urges-residents-to-heat-stoves-with-wood-amid-significant-gas-shortages/) stoves with wood amid significant gas shortages.
Some 1,500 high-rise buildings in Transnistria are currently without heating and hot water, and nearly 72,000 homes are without gas. [as of yesterday]

⚡️UPDATED: Russia strikes (kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-strike-residential-building-with-glide-bomb-in-sumy-oblast-injuring-at-least-3-people-including-children/) residential building in Sumy Oblast, injuring at least 10, including children.

⚡️Russian commander linked to deadly strike in Ukraine severely injured (kyivindependent.com/russian-commander-linked-to-deadly-strike-in-ukraine-severely-injured-in-russia-after-explosion/) in Russia after explosion.

⚡️Russian Storm Ossetia battalion chief of staff killed (kyivindependent.com/russian-storm-ossetia-battalion-chief-of-staff-killed-in-ukrainian-drone-attack-military-intelligence-claims/) in Ukrainian drone attack, military intelligence claims.
Ukrainian Kraken unit killed Sergei Melnikov, the chief of staff of Russia's Storm Ossetia battalion, and his driver in the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast in late December, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) reported on Jan. 5.

⚡️Georgian businesses and employees to carry out nationwide strike (kyivindependent.com/nationwide-strike-in-demand-of-new-elections-announced-in-georgia/) demanding new elections.

⚡️Ukrainian educator and philologist Oleksii Halionka killed (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-educator-and-philologist-oleksii-halionka-killed-in-chernihiv-missile-strike/) in Chernihiv missile strike.

⚡️Russian attacks (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-injure-over-past-day-5/) against Ukraine kill 1, injure at least 36 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - JAN 5, 2025
■ Casualties & engagements both above the 7-day average
■ Equipment losses well above it as well including close to 100 trucks & fuel tanks
■ Fewer 🇷🇺 strikes & less shelling, improved strike ratio

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/01/2025 11:33

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

✈️Ukraine will receive its first batch of French Mirage 2000-5F fighters this month, according to Avions.
The report suggests the first three jets may arrive by January 20, 2025. Some sources claim they are already in Ukraine but are currently used only for training.
The Mirage 2000-5F is the first European fighter jet delivered to Ukraine, following the American F-16. Ukrainian pilots spent months training on these jets and have praised their lightness and maneuverability in countering Russian aircraft. Eventually, around ten of these fighters will bear Ukrainian markings.

Georgia has deported 25 participants of protests in Tbilisi, with 10 already expelled, according to The Insider.

🇵🇱 Poland is drafting plans to evacuate civilians in case of war or natural disasters, according to a government communiqué.
The plan is expected to be ready within three months. It will outline the roles and coordination of civil security services responsible for relocating people to safety. The regulations will also include guidelines for safe evacuations and measures to protect works of art.

According to Ukraine’s HUR, an explosion on January 3 in Shuya, Ivanovo region, seriously injured Russian commander Konstantin Nagayko. He was reportedly involved in the 2023 attack on a café in Hroza, Kharkiv region, which killed 59 Ukrainian civilians.
Nagayko suffered multiple shrapnel wounds affecting nearly all his organs, including his brain, and underwent a skull trepanation. The HUR reports that within Russia’s 112th missile brigade, “suppressed rumors” suggest his condition is critical, with little chance of survival.

🌪🌊 Russia has lost nearly half of the barge barriers at the Crimean Bridge due to autumn-winter storms.
The monitoring group Crimean Wind reports that a satellite image from December 8, 2024, shows only 18 barges remaining. On November 8, there were 34 barges in two rows on both sides of the Kerch Strait shipping channel.
The Russian Federation is not attempting to replace or increase the number of barriers.

Russia is planning new illegal elections in Ukraine’s occupied territories, the Center of National Resistance reports.
To ensure the “efficiency” of the vote, the Kremlin is launching a special chatbot to guide “voters” in selecting specific candidates or filing complaints.
The occupation authorities intend to establish nine single-mandate electoral districts across the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Coal reserves for electricity in Transnistria will run out by the end of January, according to the Moldovan government.
The Moldovan State District Power Plant in Transnistria, previously fueled by free Russian gas, has turned to burning coal reserves. These reserves include anthracite from Donbas, delivered as an alternative fuel back in 2013.

U.S. podcaster Lex Fridman has recorded a multi-hour interview with Zelenskyy.
“I had a great conversation with Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Podcast episode to be released on Monday. [Over] 3 hours,” Fridman wrote on X.

“Russia is getting weaker, not stronger. President Trump will have much more leverage over Putin than he did eight years ago. I hope he uses it to help Ukraine,” said General Ben Hodges, former commander of the U.S. Army in Europe.

blueshoes · 05/01/2025 11:39

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-4-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed or damaged over 3,000 Russian tanks and almost 9,000 armored vehicles in 2024 as Russia continues to accrue vehicle losses that are likely unsustainable in the medium-term.
  • Russian forces have reportedly been using fewer armored vehicles in assaults in the most active areas of the frontline in recent weeks, possibly in order to conserve these vehicles as Soviet stocks dwindle.
  • Ukrainian forces struck a gas terminal at the Ust-Luga port in Leningrad Oblast on the night of January 3 to 4.
  • Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Kreminna and likely maintain positions near Kurakhove.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
  • The Russian government continues to increase financial incentives in order to boost the recruitment of military personnel.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/01/2025 11:41

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Ukrainian army has launched an offensive in Russia’s Kursk region.
“Kursk region, good news — Russia is getting what it deserves,” wrote the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak.

In this exclusive interview, James Gilmore, the former US Ambassador to the OSCE during the first Trump Administration, shares his bold and unvarnished views on the war in Ukraine and Russia's aggression.
A fierce supporter of Ukraine's fight for sovereignty, Ambassador Gilmore provides an insider's take on the OSCE's efforts to monitor the conflict and the urgent need for a united international response.
Watch the full episode here:

Two children are among the victims of a Russian airstrike with a guided bomb in Sumy. Once again, Russia’s target was a residential building, which has now been destroyed.
More people may still be trapped under the rubble.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/01/2025 11:45

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The front line in Ukraine is unlikely to change significantly by the end of the war, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized (www.nytimes.com/2025/01/04/magazine/antony-blinken-interview.html)
In an interview with The New York Times, Blinken noted that Ukraine’s territorial claims will persist, while Putin is unlikely to renounce his ambitions and may use a ceasefire to rearm.
Blinken also revealed that the U.S. began supplying Ukraine with weapons even before Russia’s full-scale invasion, starting in September 2021. Deliveries included Stinger air defense systems and Javelin anti-tank missiles, which, according to him, played a key role in Ukraine’s defense.

🔥Russian military helicopter crashes in Voronezh oblast – Russian media. A Mi-28 military helicopter crashed and caught fire in the Voronezh oblast.
Emergency services in the oblast reported that “two crew members were on board, both of whom died.

Russians captured over 3,600 km² of territory in Ukraine throughout 2024
The pace of the occupiers’ offensive increased significantly in the second half of the year. Below are the approximate areas captured monthly, excluding the Kursk oblast:
• June: 100 km²/month (3.4 km²/day)
• July: 160 km²/month (5.2 km²/day)
• August: 370 km²/month (12 km²/day)
• September: 400 km²/month (13.4 km²/day)
• October: 560 km²/month (18.7 km²/day)
• November: 610 km²/month (20.3 km²/day)
• December: 510 km²/month (16.45 km²/day)
The largest territorial losses occurred in Donetsk and Kharkiv oblasts, with Donetsk oblast facing the most intense Russian offensive efforts.
The most significant Russian advances were observed along the entire stretch from Velyka Novosilka to Ocheretyne, where the enemy seized over 2,400 km², with a maximum territorial depth of 45 km.

At night, drones attacked Taganrog and Millerovo in the Rostov oblast of Russia, according to Russian Telegram channels. Reports mention an airfield among the targets

Almost 2,000 missiles were launched by Russia at Ukraine in 2024, 56% were shot down

Intense battles continue in Toretsk, Donetsk oblast, with the frontline splitting the city in half. Russian forces are employing a “scorched earth” tactic, aiming to destroy the city’s infrastructure and Ukrainian military positions
According to the acting commander of the “Tsunami” regiment, the enemy is constantly launching assaults, actively using FPV drones, ATVs, motorcycles, and significant artillery fire.
Street fighting persists in the city, with positions of both sides sometimes located in adjacent rooms within the same building. [behold, Russian prosperity!]

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Igotjelly · 06/01/2025 12:28

Ben Wallace on Leading today is excellent, speaking about Ukraine amongst other things.

MagicFox · 06/01/2025 12:40

Yes I thought he was excellent too. I know Lex Friedman is controversial but he has just uploaded a long interview with Zelensky which I've started listening to

OP posts:
DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/01/2025 13:16

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Last week, Russia attacked Ukraine with over 630 strike drones, around 740 guided aerial bombs, and nearly 50 missiles of various types, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported

According to him, these weapons contained over 50,000 sanctioned components sourced from around the world.

🔸 In 2024, Ukraine conducted 11 prisoner exchanges, resulting in the release of 1,358 Ukrainians — 356 more than in 2023

Additionally, three times more bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers were returned compared to the previous year.

🔹 Serbian mercenary Bratislav Živković was eliminateded_ in Kursk oblast, reports Romanian outlet Digi24.*

Živković had been fighting against Ukraine since 2014 and was the commander of the Serbian nationalist paramilitary Chetniks organization.

In 2017, he was declared persona non grata in Romania for espionage in favor of Russia. Later, he was tried in Serbia for participating in military actions on behalf of a foreign state.

Ukraine also opened a criminal case against Živković for recruiting foreigners to fight against the country.

Russian Telegram channels have also reported his death.

🇩🇪Olaf Scholz has dismissed rumors about a possible visit to Putin, calling the speculation “deeply indecent.”

“This is a false claim. You can’t do something like that,” said the German Chancellor.

The statement comes after Roderich Kiesewetter, an opposition CDU party MP, claimed that Scholz might “go to Moscow or meet with Putin” before Germany’s elections on February 23.

The head of Scholz’s SPD parliamentary group called the claims fabricated, with several other politicians demanding a retraction and an apology from Kiesewetter. The government spokesperson also announced a legal complaint.

🇨🇿 Over the past year, 40 Czech citizens were permitteded_ to fight alongside the Ukrainian Armed Forces.*

In 2024, President Petr Pavel reviewed 114 requests, approving several, including three women.

Czech law prohibits citizens from serving in foreign armies without special authorization from the head of state.

Those with criminal records and law enforcement officers are barred from receiving permission, while dual citizens and individuals seeking to serve in NATO forces may apply.

🔸 Extracts from a lengthy interview between Zelensky and Fridman has been released. Full version available re*_:

Trump could be the first to visit us by plane after the war ends. It would be symbolic, – Zelensky

Lukashenko apologized in the early days of the war and claimed he wasn’t responsible for missiles being launched from his country’s territory, – Zelensky in an interview with Lex Fridman

Zelensky emphasizes that Ukraine needs reliable security guarantees to end the war, not just “on paper,” as the Budapest Memorandum’s guarantors “didn’t give a damn” about Ukraine at the time.

He mentioned discussing the Budapest Memorandum with the U.S. President-elect, stating, “We haven’t finished this conversation yet, we will continue it.”

Zelensky also described the history of Ukraine’s security guarantees as a “train loaded with scrap paper,” with the Minsk Agreements being the second carriage.

“The Republicans endorsed Ukraine’s NATO membership in 2008 but Merkel obstructed it”

Zelensky offers Fridman a short history of Ukraine’s NATO accession saga that continues to this day.

🇸🇰 A political scandal has erupted in Slovakia: Prime Minister Robert Fico disappeared for 14 days after his visit to Moscow, with no one able to determine his whereabouts.

However, a video he posted on social media, where he blamed Ukraine for halting Russian gas supplies, helped reveal his location — a luxury suite costing €5,740 per night at the Capella Hotel in Hanoi, Vietnam. Meanwhile, Fico’s monthly salary is around €11,200.

🔹 Another anti-Ukrainian government in the EU?

Austrian Chancellor and leader of the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP), Karl Nehammer, is stepping down after failed coalition talks with the Social Democrats (SPÖ).

The new ÖVP leader, Christian Stocker, has expressed readiness to form a coalition with the far-right, pro-Russian Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), which secured first place in the September elections.

If FPÖ forms the government, Europe could face another pro-Russian power center alongside Hungary and Slovakia, likely obstructing support for Ukraine and its EU integration.

Early elections remain a possibility, but forecasts suggest FPÖ could gain even more support, which would be an even worse scenario for Ukraine.

🇺🇸 U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken believeses_ Ukraine’s position in Russia’s Kursk oblast is crucial for any future negotiations*

President Joe Biden’s administration wants to ensure that “Ukraine holds the strongest card to play.”

▪️The Kursk operation began in August 2024. Since then, Russian losses have totaled 38,000 soldiers killed and wounded, along with over a thousand pieces of military equipment destroyed.

🇩🇪Ukraine will receive an additional 180,000 rounds for Gepard air defense systems

The German company Rheinmetall will producece*_ the extra 35mm ammunition, funded by Germany.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/01/2025 13:31

United 24 Media:

🔹 Finland continues to detect attempts to export sanctioned goods to Russia despite closing the border a year ago due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Over half of the violations are minor and resolved with fines, often involving individuals crossing the border with small amounts of luxury items.

The more serious cases typically involve planned efforts to smuggle goods that could support the Russian military.

⚡️ The Center for Countering Disinformation has confirmed an offensive by Ukrainian troops in the Kursk region.

“The Russians in the Kursk region are very worried because they were attacked from several directions, which caught them by surprise. The defense forces are working,” said Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation.

Preliminary reports indicate fighting near the village of Berdyn, northeast of Sudzha.

There have been 42 military clashes in the Kursk region so far, with 12 still ongoing, according to the General Staff.

🔹 North Korea may have sent another 30-40 thousand soldiers to war against Ukraine, or even 500 thousand, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in an interview with Lex Fridman.

🔸 “I really hope Trump will be able to end the war. I believe our people support his idea. It seems to me that Trump’s goal is not to lose Ukraine. He has all the capabilities to stop Putin and provide Ukraine with strong security guarantees,” Zelenskyy stated.

🔹 Zelenskyy on Russia’s development and global technology

"Do you think you can talk about technology with Putin? He once told a story about a tribe in an interview. Do you understand? Where is this person in his country, and where are Musk, Mars, and AI? And here he is, standing with nothing to offer, talking about tribes," Zelenskyy remarked.

The Ukrainian president also stressed that before any ceasefire, Ukraine needs strong security guarantees and weapons.

"What will happen to Trump if he agrees to a ceasefire, and three months later, Putin launches a new attack? What will Trump and Ukraine look like then? Why will Putin attack? Because he fears Trump today. But if Trump agrees to a ceasefire without serious security guarantees for Ukraine, it will hand Putin an opportunity," Zelenskyy explained.

🔸 Zelenskyy: Ukraine Needs Reliable Security Guarantees Beyond Paper Promises

President Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine requires trustworthy security guarantees to end the war, highlighting the failure of the Budapest Memorandum, where the guarantors ultimately disregarded Ukraine’s security.

He revealed that he had discussed the Budapest Memorandum with the U.S. president-elect and stated, “We haven’t finished this conversation yet; we will continue it.”

Zelenskyy described Ukraine’s history with security guarantees as a “trash train,” with the second car being the failed Minsk agreements.

🔹 Excerpts from Zelenskyy’s Interview:

▫️ Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine’s NATO membership would allow the Alliance’s actions to extend to the territories under its control, describing it as a fast track to peace.

▫️ He mentioned that after the war, Donald Trump could be the first world leader to visit Ukraine on his plane.

▫️ On corruption, Zelenskyy highlighted the imprisonment of Ukraine’s most influential oligarch, Ihor Kolomoisky, noting that while the U.S. and Europe accused him of “withdrawing money,” they were unable to take similar action.

▫️ When asked about a second presidential term, he called it a “difficult issue,” saying the decision depends on how the war ends, what the people want, and his family’s opinion.

🔸 “Putin wants to make me quarrel with President Donald Trump and end the occupation of Ukraine,” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said.

“Putin’s goal is to create conflict between me and Trump. His goal is to end the occupation of our territory—but it’s all in his sick head, I’m absolutely sure of that. So don’t wait for Putin’s desire—force him to stop the war,” Zelenskyy stated in an interview with Lex Fridman.

🔹 Chisinau on Offering Gas Assistance to Transnistria

In December 2024, Moldova's Ministry of Energy proposed an alternative to Tiraspoltransgaz in case Russian gas supplies were cut off, suggesting the purchase of gas on the Romanian exchange.

On January 2, Moldovagaz and Energocom introduced a mechanism for purchasing gas from regional markets. Additionally, the Moldovan State Regional Electric Company, Transnistria's main electricity producer, offered to convert the gas purchased by Energocom into electricity.

"To date, we have not received any response to these proposals. Tiraspoltransgaz declined cooperation on the very same day, January 2," a Moldovan official stated.

🔸 Blinken on Ukraine's Positions and Russia-North Korea Cooperation

The positions held by the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region are crucial, as they will play a significant role in any negotiations in the coming year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said.

Blinken also noted that Moscow is reportedly expanding its cooperation with Pyongyang in space technology in exchange for North Korea sending soldiers to fight in Ukraine.

"The DPRK is already receiving Russian military equipment and training. Now, we have reason to believe Moscow plans to share advanced space and satellite technologies with Pyongyang," Blinken stated during a press conference in Seoul.

He reiterated remarks from U.S. Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who in December suggested Russia might be nearing recognition of North Korea as a nuclear state.

🔹 IAEA reports explosions near Zaporizhzhia NPP.

The IAEA Support and Assistance Mission recorded two explosions and machine gun fire on January 5. This coincided with reports of a drone attack on the station’s training center.

🔸 Biden Administration Prepares New Sanctions on Russian Oil Transport

The Biden administration is planning to impose additional sanctions on tankers transporting Russian oil sold above the $60-per-barrel price cap, aiming to implement these measures before the new president is inaugurated, Reuters reports.

A source familiar with the plans described the sanctions as “a big package,” potentially including actions against individuals involved in networks trading oil above the cap.

Last month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen indicated that further sanctions on tankers were under consideration, and sanctions on Chinese banks had not been ruled out. The measures are designed to curb Russia's oil revenues and restrict its ability to access foreign resources for its war in Ukraine.

The Biden administration's moves come as uncertainty grows over how Donald Trump, should he take office, will handle sanctions on Russia.

🔹 Communication Operators, Banks, and Internet Services Down in Russia

Users of Downdetector report issues with MTS, MTS Bank, and Kion streaming services. Customers of T-Bank, Alfa-Bank, and Sberbank cannot access online banking. Additionally, users are facing problems with Google, Yandex, Vkontakte, YouTube, and other services.
The cause of the outage is still unclear.

🔸 Serbia Ready to Buy Russian Stake in Energy Firm NIS

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced that Serbia is ready to buy Gazprom and Gazprom Neft’s shares in the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) if the United States imposes sanctions.

The Russian companies currently own 56.15% of NIS, worth around 700 million euros. Vučić stated that Serbia has the necessary funds to complete the purchase, highlighting the country's commitment to securing its energy independence amid geopolitical tensions.

🤡 Medvedev: The Russian People’s Revenge on Zelenskyy Should Not End After His Removal From the Post

This was Dmitry Medvedev's response to an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where he stated that he does not respect "the leader of Russia or its people."

blueshoes · 06/01/2025 23:51

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-5-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces resumed offensive operations in at least three areas within the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and made tactical advances on January 5.
  • Russian forces also advanced southeast of Sudzha and counterattacked against intensified Ukrainian attacks southeast of Korenevo and north of Sudzha on January 5.
  • Russian sources expressed concern about the Russian military's ability to react to Ukraine's ongoing combined arms efforts to integrate electronic warfare (EW) and long-range strike capabilities with ground operations.
  • Russian forces recently advanced east of Pokrovsk amid renewed offensive operations in the area likely aimed at supporting the envelopment of Pokrovsk from the northeast.
  • The recent intensification in the Russian 41st CAA's area of responsibility east of Pokrovsk indicates that the Russian military command is still considering the envelopment of Pokrovsk as one of their key operational objectives in this area.
  • Russian forces may also be exploiting comparatively weaker Ukrainian defensive positions further east and south of Pokrovsk as part of an ongoing effort to seize any territory, regardless of such territory’s relative tactical insignificance.
  • Elements of the Russian 5th Motorized Rifle Brigade (51st CAA, formerly 1st Donetsk People's Republic Army Corps) are reportedly split between the Pokrovsk and Kurakhove directions — Russia's two most prioritized sectors of the frontline.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Borova, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kursk salient and regained lost positions near Chasiv Yar.
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/01/2025 11:06

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trudeau to resign as Prime Minister, (kyivindependent.com/canadian-pm-trudeau-to-resign-as-liberal-leader-stay-in-office-until-replacement-selected/) party leader, to stay in office until replacement selected.
Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canada has been a strong ally of Ukraine, providing 19.5 billion Canadian dollars ($13.5 billion) in assistance, including 4.5 billion Canadian dollars ($3.1 billion) in military aid.

⚡️ Ukraine strikes 3 Russian air defense (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-3-russian-air-defense-systems-in-single-day-navy-claims/) systems in single day, Navy claims.
Two Russian anti-missile Pantsir-S1 systems and one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle were damaged or destroyed by Ukraine's Navy in one day, the military branch claimed on Jan. 6.

⚡️Russia seeks to restore (kyivindependent.com/russia-seeks-to-restore-barge-barriers-near-crimean-bridge-lost-due-to-storm-navy-says/) barge barriers protecting Crimean Bridge lost due to storms, Navy says.

⚡️Kyiv, Moscow reach preliminary agreement to prioritize wounded POWs (kyivindependent.com/kyiv-moscow-reach-preliminary-agreement-to-prioritize-wounded-pows-in-future-exchanges/) in future exchanges.

⚡️ Russian forces attempt to 'infiltrate' settlements around Pokrovsk, Ukraine's military says. (kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-attempt-to-infiltrate-settlements-around-pokrovsk-ukraines-military-says/)

⚡️Russian agents plotted terror attack (kyivindependent.com/sbu-uncovers-kyiv-oblast-terror-plot/) near Kyiv by blowing up 16-year-old co-conspirator, SBU claims.
The boy, disguised as a Ukrainian soldier, was allegedly instructed to plant explosives at an entrance to a military facility premises in December 2024. The plotters then intended to detonate the explosives remotely, killing the boy as well, the Prosecutor General's Office said, adding that the boy was not aware he was to be killed as part of the attack.

⚡️End of Ukraine gas transit has no effect (kyivindependent.com/end-of-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-has-no-effect-on-eu-energy-market-stability-european-commission-says/) on EU energy market stability, European Commission says.
The EU energy market remains stable following the end of the Russian gas transit through Ukraine, European Commission spokesperson Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said at a briefing in Brussels on Jan. 6.
When asked about whether such a move caused any kind of emergency in Slovakia, she said that the Gas Coordination Group held talks last week and concluded that "there are no security supplies issues or concerns for the European Union following the end of the transit."

⚡️ Europe might soon feel ‘intense pressure’ to strike a deal with Moscow, Polish FM warns. (kyivindependent.com/europe-might-soon-feel-intense-pressure-to-strike-a-deal-with-moscow-polish-fm-warns/)
Europe might soon feel "intense pressure" to reach some sort of an agreement with Russia regarding its war against Ukraine, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in a post on X on Jan. 6.

⚡️ Transnistria's electricity supply system faces collapse amid gas shortage, Moldovan official warns. (https://kyivindependent.com/transnistrias-electricity-supply-system-faces-collapse-moldovan-official-warns/)
There is about a 30% energy deficit, or 65 megawatts (MW), as residents of Transnistria use electric devices to heat their homes, said Constantin Borosan, a state secretary at the ministry.

⚡️Russia fueling Transnistria (kyivindependent.com/russia-is-fueling-transnistria-energy-crisis-for-propaganda-destabilization-moldova-says/) energy crisis for propaganda, destabilization, Moldova says.

⚡️ FPV drones launched from naval drone struck Russian air defenses for first time, Ukraine says. (kyivindependent.com/fpv-drones-launched-from-naval-drone-struck-russian-air-defenses-for-first-time-ukraine-says/)
For the first time, Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drones using a naval drone as a springboard took out three Russian air defense systems, Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security said on Jan. 7.
As a result of the attack on Jan. 6, two Russian anti-missile Pantsir-S1 systems and one OSA anti-aircraft vehicle were reportedly damaged or destroyed in the occupied part of Ukraine's southern Kherson Oblast.

Europe cannot fill void left by US in Ukraine’s defense (kyivindependent.com/opinion-europe-cannot-fill-the-void-left-by-the-us-in-ukraines-defense/)
Since the election of Donald Trump as president of the United States, the question on everyone's mind is whether Europe, including the U.K., can replace the military assistance the U.S. is giving Ukraine. The short answer is no. The reasons for this are a mix of politics and capabilities, writes Samantha de Bendern, an associate fellow at Chatham House, in her recent op-ed.

⚡️ Putin sends trusted general (kyivindependent.com/putin-sends-trusted-general-to-fend-off-ukraines-offensive-in-kursk/) to fend off Ukraine’s offensive in Kursk.
General Yunus-Bek Yevkurov has been serving as the Kremlin’s deputy defense minister and was tasked to head Russia’s border defenses and lead Moscow’s mercenary projects in Africa.

⚡️Zelensky says nearly 15,000 Russians (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-nearly-15-000-russians-have-been-killed-in-kursk-region/) have been killed in Kursk region.

⚡️ Russia has lost over 3,000 vehicles, equipment pieces during Kursk incursion, Ukraine claims. (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-says-nearly-15-000-russians-have-been-killed-in-kursk-region/)
This included 104 tanks, 575 armored vehicles, 330 artillery systems, 12 air defense systems, 12 multiple-launch rocket systems, a plane, and three helicopters, among others, the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces claimed on Jan. 6.

⚡️ Ukraine fends off almost 100 Russian assaults (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-fends-off-almost-100-russian-assaults-in-kursk-oblast-military-reports/) in Kursk Oblast, military says.

⚡️'Absurd versions' — Azerbaijan's president accuses (https://kyivindependent.com/absurd-versions-azerbaijans-president-accuses-russia-condemns-putins-denial-in-crash-case/) Russia, condemns Putin’s denial of involvement in plane crash.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev again accused Russia of causing the Dec. 25 crash of Airlines Flight J2-8243, which killed 38 people, and criticized Vladimir Putin for not admitting guilt during a Jan. 6 meeting with victims’ families and surviving crew members.

⚡️Engine failures ground (kyivindependent.com/end-of-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-has-no-effect-on-eu-energy-market-stability-european-commission-says/) two Russian airliners shortly after takeoff, local media reports.
An Airbus A321neo operated by Ural Airlines experienced a left engine failure at an altitude of 4,500 meters (2.7 miles) on Jan. 4 while flying from Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, to Yekaterinburg. The crew reported the malfunction and returned to the departure airport.
Similarly, a Boeing 737 belonging to NordStar Airlines suffered a left engine failure at 11,300 meters (7 miles) during a flight from Volgograd to Ekaterinburg on Jan. 2, prompting its crew to return to Gumrak airport in Volgograd.

⚡️Head of Ukraine's Customs Service suspected (kyivindependent.com/head-of-ukraines-customs-service-suspected-of-failing-to-declare-over-100-000-in-assets/) of failing to declare over $100,000 in assets.

⚡️French official confirms 'dozens' of Ukrainian soldiers deserted (kyivindependent.com/french-official-confirms-dozens-of-ukrainian-soldiers-deserted-while-training-in-france-afp-reports/) while training in France, AFP reports.
"There have been a certain number of desertions, but they remain very marginal given the volume of people who have undergone training," the unnamed official told AFP.

⚡️ Russian troops allegedly kill 3 Ukrainian POWs (kyivindependent.com/russian-troops-allegedly-kill-3-ukrainian-pows-in-donetsk-oblast/) in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Russian drone (kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-attack-against-bus-in-kherson-kills-3-injures-at-least-6/) attack against bus in Kherson, kills 1, injures 6.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 3, injure 23 (kyivindependent.com/attacks-115/) over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - JAN 7, 2025
■ 5th highest daily casualties, total reaches 800k
■ Massive equipment losses continue; record 7-day drone average, 3rd biggest vehicle losses
■ Visually confirmed: 27 🇷🇺 22 🇺🇦 added (1.2x)
■ 🇺🇦 strikes stay in the double digits

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/01/2025 11:19

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Serbia Ready to Buy Russian Stake in Energy Firm NIS
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić announced that Serbia is ready to buy Gazprom and Gazprom Neft’s shares in the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) if the United States imposes sanctions.
The Russian companies currently own 56.15% of NIS, worth around 700 million euros. Vučić stated that Serbia has the necessary funds to complete the purchase, highlighting the country's commitment to securing its energy independence amid geopolitical tensions.

🇺🇸 Trump’s Special Envoy to Ukraine Postpones European Trip
Keith Kellogg, Donald Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, has postponed his planned visits to Kyiv, Rome, and Paris until after Trump’s inauguration on January 20, Reuters reports.
The trip, originally scheduled for early January, has been delayed for reasons that remain unclear.

Azov Brigade Is the First to Use Czech 155mm Self-propelled DITAs in Military Combat (https://united24media.com/war-in-ukraine/azov-brigade-is-the-first-to-use-czech-155mm-self-propelled-ditas-in-military-combat-4893)

Water and Power Cuts Hit Transnistria Amid Electricity Shortages — NewsMaker
On January 5, villages in Transnistria’s Slobodzei district lost water due to low pressure in the pipes. Earlier, water was also cut off in parts of Tiraspol.

Medvedev: The Russian People’s Revenge on Zelenskyy Should Not End After His Removal From the Post
This was Dmitry Medvedev's response to an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, where he stated that he does not respect "the leader of Russia or its people."

Lukashenko Did Not Apologize to Zelenskyy, Claims Belarusian Press Secretary

Russian Economy Overheated by Military Spending and May "Stall" in 2025 — Neue Zürcher Zeitung
The Central Bank of Russia is under pressure from rising inflation and economic contradictions. Despite a high key rate of 21%, inflation in December was over 9%, signaling an overheated economy due to military spending and reduced access to capital from sanctions. Increased defense production and labor shortages are also driving up wages and prices.
The weakening ruble and expensive imports are pushing inflation higher, while capital controls discourage investors. Economic growth in 2024 was 4%, but the forecast for 2025 is just 1.5%.
Experts expect stagflation, a mix of high inflation and economic stagnation. Despite this, the Kremlin continues funding military spending using its financial reserves.

At least 32 dolphins have died in the Black Sea following a fuel oil leak from Russian tankers damaged in the Kerch Strait accident.

❗️ Ukrainian F-16 Pilot Sets Historic Record: Destroys Six Cruise Missiles in One Sortie
For the first time in history, a Ukrainian F-16 pilot successfully shot down six cruise missiles in a single mission, Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat announced.
Ignat acknowledged that Ukraine’s current F-16s are older models with limited radar and weapon capabilities, but Ukrainian pilots demonstrate their exceptional skills daily.

Kim Jong-un Bans Hot Dogs and Divorce in North Korea — Daily Mail
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has reportedly banned hot dogs, calling them "too Western." Cooking the dish is now considered treason, punishable by six months in labor camps.
Kim has also ordered divorcing couples to be sent to labor camps to "pay for their crimes." [admittedly, it's the Daily Mail]

World Currency Performance in 2024 — Dollar Remains the Only Gainer
According to TradingView, the US dollar was the only currency to gain in 2024, rising by 7.1%. The British pound dropped by 1.7%, the euro fell 6.2%, and the Chinese yuan and Indian rupee each lost 2.8%.
The Russian ruble and Brazilian real had the worst performance, falling by 18.6% and 21.6%, respectively.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/01/2025 11:55

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Macron warned that Iran’s nuclear program is “reaching a point of no return.”
He added, “Iranian issues are among the main topics on which France will resume dialogue with the new Trump administration.”

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for January 7th, 2025
www.kyivpost.com/post/45013

In the Ukrainian military’s first-ever public admission, army commander Syrsky conceded that Ukraine’s only combat brigade armed by France faced shortfalls in training and equipment.
www.kyivpost.com/post/44997

The European Commission has called off gas transit talks through Ukraine, originally set for January 7, due to the absence of Ukrainian representatives, according to the Slovak government’s press office.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 07/01/2025 11:59

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇮🇩Indonesia has officially joined BRICS, an economic bloc established by Russia, Brazil, India, and China
Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world, but its economy is not yet among the top ten largest. It is the first Southeast Asian country to become a full member of BRICS. Since January, Malaysia and Thailand have also become partner countries of the organization.
Besides the founding countries and South Africa, BRICS now also includes Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates.

🇵🇱 Poland is ready to increase electricity supplies to Ukraine if Slovakia refuses to do so, according to Reuters (www.reuters.com/business/energy/poland-ready-provide-electricity-ukraine-minister-says-2025-01-07/)
Climate and Environment Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska made the statement following threats from Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico.

🇨🇿 The Czech government has officially fulfilled its commitment to spend 2% of GDP on defense, aligning with NATO’s minimum target
Out of the 32 NATO members, at least 24 have now reached the 2% spending goal, a significant increase from just six members in 2021.

New photos of the crashed Azerbaijan Airlines plane in Aktau reveal visible holes caused by fragments from a Russian air defense missile

Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
blueshoes · 07/01/2025 15:12

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-6-2025

Key Takeaways:

  • Ukrainian forces recently made tactical advances amid continued intensified offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6.
  • Russian forces attempted to leverage Ukrainian attacks northeast of Sudzha to attack elsewhere in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on January 6.
  • Ukrainian forces may be continuing to conduct long-range strikes against Russian rear areas in Kursk Oblast as part of efforts to use integrated strike capabilities to support ground operations.
  • Russian forces reportedly executed more Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) on January 3.
  • Ukrainian Human Rights Commissioner Dmytro Lyubinets announced that Ukraine and Russia have reached a preliminary agreement to conduct regular POW exchanges in 2025.
  • The leaders of the Chechen "Akhmat" Spetsnaz forces and the far-right paramilitary unit "Rusich" Russian Sabotage Assault Reconnaissance Group met on January 6 and promoted a message about Russia's ethnic diversity and harmony.
  • Russian forces advanced in the Lyman, Toretsk, and Pokrovsk directions, and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces seized Kurakhove.
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated in an interview published on January 5 that 3,800 North Korean personnel have been killed and wounded in Kursk Oblast.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
Ukraine Invasion: Part 53
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