Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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I was chatting to a Ukrainian girl in a bar last night (still in Prague) about whether her people are worried about Putin’s rhetoric, she just shrugged and said he’s already killing and terrorising them so why does the method matter. She still lives in Ukraine just taking a break to see friends and said she refuses to let Putin and Russia scare her because if he does and she lives in fear then he may as well have won. She said she plans to keep living her life to the full until she can’t and that in her mind that’s a massive fuck you to Putin. They’re such an inspiration.

The Czech that I’ve met are very pro-Ukraine. The barman last night says his gran is still alive and remembers well living under communist rule so to her it feels like a fight that she can relate to.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine has lost (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-lost-over-40-of-territory-previously-gained-in-russias-kursk-oblast-reuters-reports/) over 40% of territory previously gained in Kursk incursion, Reuters reports.
"At most, we controlled about 1,376 square kilometres, now of course this territory is smaller. The enemy is increasing its counterattacks," the source told Reuters. "Now we control approximately 800 square kilometres. We will hold this territory for as long as is militarily appropriate."

⚡️Taiwan’s former president urges US to prioritize aiding Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/taiwans-former-president-urges-us-to-prioritize-aiding-ukraine-over-taiwan-politico-reports/) over Taiwan, Politico reports.

⚡️Zaluzhnyi: Use of technological advancements will prevent 'serious' front line breakthrough (kyivindependent.com/zaluzhnyi-technological-advancements-during-wartime-prevent-serious-front-line-breakthrough-until-2027/) until 2027.
Newfound technological advancements during wartime will prevent serious front line breakthroughs until around 2027, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the U.K., told Ukrainska Pravda in an interview published on Nov. 23.
According to Zaluzhnyi, Russia is not able to expand the front line, as it would require huge resources "which the Russians no longer have."

⚡️Russia has damaged 321 port infrastructure facilities, as well as 20 foreign merchant vessels since July 2023, Zelensky said on Nov. 23 at the International Conference on Food Security in Kyiv. (https://kyivindependent.com/russia-damaged-over-300-port-facilities-20-foreign-vessels-in-the-past-year-zelensky-says/)

⚡️North Korean missiles with Western parts (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-faces-wave-of-attacks-with-north-korean-missiles-with-western-components-cnn-reports/) fuel Russian attacks on Ukraine, CNN reports.
In 2024, Russia launched around 60 North Korean KN-23 missiles, accounting for nearly one-third of the 194 ballistic missile strikes tracked by Ukraine’s Air Force.
Ukrainian investigators have uncovered evidence of extensive use of Western components in the KN-23 missiles.
"Everything that works to guide the missile, to make it fly, is all foreign components. All the electronics are foreign. There is nothing Korean in it," Andriy Kulchytskyi, head of the Military Research Laboratory at Kyiv’s Scientific Research Institute of Forensic Expertise, told CNN.

⚡️Bloomberg: US intelligence memo details Russia's suspected targeting (kyivindependent.com/us-document-about-assassinations-suspected-by-russia/) of political adversaries abroad.
A declassified U.S. intelligence memorandum sheds light on Russia's suspected assassination attempts on political adversaries abroad, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 23.

⚡️Mediazona confirms identities of almost 80,000 Russian soldiers (kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-almost-80-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/) killed in Ukraine.

⚡️Russia's Oreshnik missile likely had no explosives (kyivindependent.com/bild-russias-oreshnik-missile-that-targeted-dnipro-was-actually-modified-rubezh-missile/) and didn't cause much damage, Bild analyst claims.
Russia's Oreshnik missile that targeted Dnipro on Nov. 21 likely carried no explosive charge and did not cause any significate damage, German media outlet Bild reported on Nov. 23, citing Bild military analyst Julian Ropcke.

⚡️Media: EU parliament speaker calls for sending (https://kyivindependent.com/media-broad-support-in-eu-parliament-for-germany-to-supply-ukraine-taurus-missiles/) Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪- NOV 24, 2024
■ 2nd highest number of engagements to date (record of 230 set on Nov 5)
■ Unusually low casualties & equipment losses reported
■ Fewer 🇷🇺 air strikes but MLRS strikes above average, only 3 🇺🇦 strikes reported

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has escalated beyond a regional war.
Pistorius believes Putin sees himself as victorious in the war and aims to continue fighting to establish a new world order. He noted that Russia has “completely mobilized its economy for war,” producing as much weaponry and ammunition in three months as the entire EU does in a year, Spiegel reports.
Given the persistent threat from Moscow, Pistorius emphasized the need for significant investments in Germany’s military readiness.
“Our security is a fragile commodity,” he warned.

❗️ Russia’s “shooting list,” prepared in case of Ukraine’s occupation, targeted teachers, veterans, journalists, priests, and other prominent figures, according to Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s HUR.
“The list included teachers of Ukrainian language, literature, and history; ATO veterans; journalists; scientists; writers; priests of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and other supportive denominations; public and political figures; and heads of state and local government bodies,” Budanov revealed.
He also stated that prior to the full-scale invasion, Russian forces were given instructions on where to locate mass graves.

Germany has delivered just 26 MRAP armored vehicles to Ukraine out of the 400 promised, according to Bild.
The delay is reportedly due to “untimely U.S. permission to export automotive components” and “exclusive responsibility of FFG,” the manufacturer.
The German Ministry of Defense anticipates the remaining vehicles will be delivered in 2025.

Pistorius believes Putin sees himself as victorious in the war and aims to continue fighting to establish a new world order

My own thoughts are that, sadly, Putin is right. The West has not been unified and the support for Ukraine has dwindled; the endless delays and the slowness of allowing (and delivering) so many militarily useful resources has really shown up the weakness of the West.

When you consider that BRICS is expanding and some major countries are less than enthusiastic about arresting Putin if he travels; the support China has and is showing Russia ... Most of all the strong hybrid and much, much too effective social media and other warfare, plus the physical assassinations in the West.

He has taken over resource-rich areas of Ukraine and sadly will likely hold them. He's more powerful in African resource-rich areas.

The price has been enormous to Russia, economically and personnel-wise, and they are now subservient to China.

But the fear/respect for the West has diminished and power balances are changing.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Declassified US report confirms former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko was poisoned by Russian special services in 2004.
The report, obtained by Bloomberg after 8 years of FOIA efforts, details Putin’s assassinations of political opponents.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇫🇷 Paris has officially authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory using French long-range missiles.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are permitted to do so strictly “for self-defense purposes,” according to French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot.
The official did not confirm whether Ukrainian forces have already used French weapons.

📹Maimed Regiments and Zeroing Out: Russia’s Military Horror Stories
How does the Russian army destroy its own soldiers? From “maimed regiments” to “zeroing out,” this video uncovers the brutal reality of Russia’s military tactics.

U.S. intelligence has declassified (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-22/putin-s-assassination-targets-revealed-in-declassified-memo) a document detailing the Kremlin’s use of overseas assassinations against political opponents of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin.
“A striking example is former Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who in 2004 suffered a near-fatal poisoning. His supporters concluded that Russian intelligence introduced chemical dioxin into his food while he was a pro-Western presidential candidate advocating for Ukraine’s integration with the West,” the document states.

In Greece, individuals bearing communist symbols disrupted a memorial event dedicated to the victims of the Holodomor, leaving a Ukrainian diplomat injured.
Ukrainians had gathered near the Taras Shevchenko monument in the city of Mandra when they were attacked by unknown individuals with red flags. The attackers shouted slogans, blocked access to the monument, and explosions were reportedly heard. t.me/liveukraine_media/26551

This soldier from the National Guard of Ukraine spent 67 days surrounded by Russian forces, defending the approaches to the city of Siversk in Donetsk Oblast.
Listen to his story… https://t.me/liveukraine_media/26555

⚡️Russia's Oreshnik missile likely had no explosives (kyivindependent.com/bild-russias-oreshnik-missile-that-targeted-dnipro-was-actually-modified-rubezh-missile/) and didn't cause much damage, Bild analyst claims.
Russia's Oreshnik missile that targeted Dnipro on Nov. 21 likely carried no explosive charge and did not cause any significate damage, German media outlet Bild reported on Nov. 23, citing Bild military analyst Julian Ropcke.

That's in line with some of the very early speculation and would tie in with the idea that Russian"s didn't want to gift the west too much wreckage of a sensitive nature regarding rentry vehicles and allied components.

"He has taken over resource-rich areas of Ukraine and sadly will likely hold them. He's more powerful in African resource-rich areas."

Sorry if I've already posted this...but talking to another Ukrainian friend who enlightened me to the fact that... "Russia has the entire Mendeleev table in the ground, and according to recent reports, Russia has leased one of the largest gold mines to China for 50 years. The total has reached 300,000 hectares of land in Siberia with timber, diamonds, oil and gas."

He thinks this Is the main reason that China supports Russia in this war and that the relationship isn't as one way as we might think, in that Russia is not the weaker partner. It got me thinking about global sanctions and the myriad of ways that Russia can offset these to an extent by owning and leasing mineral rich land.

I saw a clip of a European politician on Twitter the other day say that Mr Putin wants hundreds of thousands of Russians to die in Ukraine, we must do out best to see that wish is granted.
I don't know when this was said or who by and I can't find the clip now sorry

@Hillsmakeyoustrong this is an interesting perspective. It makes sense to explain why China would take so many risks with the US for Russia if they did not get something out of it that would make them stronger in the long run.

Wasn't it Donald Tusk?

Thank you @herecomesautumn

I must admit I thought that quote was somewhat surprising given modern sensitivities and reminded me a bit of the one (sometimes attributed to Patton) that went along the lines of:

“The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his.”

I'm liking this Twitter post 👍

Tusk has an interesting rebellious past. Anti-Communist while Poland was still under Russian rule. I really like him, think he's a good man.

It was Patton, said during a speech to the assembled troops of the US Third Army Corps, in Britain and waiting to participate in the invasion of Normandy. The Third Army didn't go across on D-Day; they were held in reserve to reinforce wherever needed. Patton played a key role in the plan to convince the Germans that the actual landing would be at Dover. It worked. The Germans failed to reinforce in Normandy until it was too late, thinking it was a diversionary attack.

There's a full transcript of the speech George S. Patton's speech to the Third Army. It's a corker.

It's too late to edit that last post about Patton's speech, but I wanted to add this. I've mentioned the importance of communicating the "commander's intent" directly to the troops so they will understand the bigger picture, be ready to take the initiative, and act independently if they are cut off from the chain of command. This speech is a classic example of providing clear commander's intent - to advance relentlessly and not hold ground.

China supports Russia in order to help weaken the West and strengthen itself, but it's very interested in the mineral resources in the far East of Russia. There are rumours that quite a lot of deals have gone on and China has effectively taken over running certain mines, to the degree that Russia has lost some quite long term access to the mined minerals.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress is this China extracting its pound of flesh from Russia in exchange for supporting them in Ukraine?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-24-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces’ recent confirmed battlefield gains near Vuhledar and Velyka Novosilka demonstrate that the war in Ukraine is not stalemated. The frontline in Donetsk Oblast is becoming increasingly fluid as Russian forces recently have been advancing at a significantly quicker rate than they did in the entirety of 2023.
• Russian advances in the Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka directions present the Russian military command with several courses of action (COAs) that the Russian command may attempt in the coming weeks and months.
• COA 1: Russian forces advance southwest, east, and northeast of Velyka Novosilka to envelop the settlement from its flanks, bypassing the area immediately south of Velyka Novosilka.
• COA 2: Russian forces advance to Andriivka (along the H15 highway and west of Kurakhove) from the south in support of Russian efforts to close the Ukrainian pockets near Kurakhove and level the frontline.
• COA 3: Russian forces advance west and southwest from Selydove along the Pustynka-Sontsivka line in the direction of Andriivka to collapse the Ukrainian pocket north of Kurakhove and threaten Ukrainian egress routes.
• The Russian military command is likely planning on how to advance into the southeasternmost part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast in support of Russia's longstanding objective to seize all of Donetsk Oblast.
• Elements of the Russian Central, Eastern, and Southern military districts (CMD, EMD, and SMD) are conducting simultaneous, mutually supportive offensive operations in Donetsk Oblast and have recently made relatively rapid tactical advances. The Russian military command may be learning from some battlefield mistakes after three years of war, but the extent of this learning is currently unclear.
• The Russian military command appears to be planning more complex operations, but Russian forces have yet to be able to restore operational maneuver to the battlefield and are instead still relying on their ability to identify and exploit vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian defensive lines to make gradual, tactical advances.
• Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-400 air defense system radar in an unspecified area in Kursk Oblast on the night of November 23 to 24.
• Russia reportedly recruited hundreds of Yemeni nationals to fight in the Russian military amid growing cooperation between Russia, Iran, and Iran-backed Houthi movement.
• Ukrainian and Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Velyka Novosilka.

is this China extracting its pound of flesh from Russia in exchange for supporting them in Ukraine? very much so yes. It serves multiple purposes; China gets the raw minerals, it influences Russia, and there seems to be a quiet inclination to re-claim some of the far Eastern parts of Russia which used to be Chinese. Around Vladivostock became Russian due to a clever treaty arranged by a Russian general, but China's never quite forgotten and it was reported in the last year or so that new Chinese textbooks the city is given its old Chinese name, not labelled by the Russian name as it had been in older textbooks. It's only a straw in the wind, but it's not nothing either.

Maybe I’m overly cynical these days but seeing the news of the DHL cargo plane crashing in Lithuania and I can’t help but think of the recent threats that have been identified.

I’ve seen in my X feed a video of Ukrainians taking down & destroying a monument to Zoya Kosmodemyanskaya in Chernihiv.

She was a Soviet partisan who was executed by the Germans in 1943.

AIBU to think this is disgraceful behaviour by the Ukrainians to do this?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoya_Kosmodemyanskaya

I’m fairly certain this is an old video and that there was no clear evidence it was genuinely Ukrainian soldiers.