UNITED24 Media Summary of Nuclear Weopons Situation
American Experts on Moscow’s Nuclear Blackmail: “Nuclear Weapons Won’t Benefit Russia”
Monitoring Russia’s nuclear readiness remains a top priority for U.S. intelligence, says Matthew Bunn, a nuclear weapons analyst and former science advisor to President Bill Clinton.
“As far as we know, Russian nuclear forces are in a state of readiness. It would be unwise for the United States to dismiss the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons if it chooses to,” Bunn told Voice of America.
According to Bunn, the last significant U.S. intelligence concern about a Russian nuclear strike occurred in late 2022, after Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Kherson. He notes that a serious threat to Crimea might prompt Russia to consider nuclear options.
John Erath, Senior Policy Director at the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation, argues that Russia is unlikely to use nuclear weapons. Over the past two years, numerous “red lines” for their use have been crossed, including Ukraine receiving Western tanks, Patriot systems, and F-16 fighters.
“Lack of Moral Constraints but No Tactical Benefit”
Erath highlights that Russia has used various types of weaponry in its war against Ukraine without red lines. The absence of nuclear use, he suggests, is not due to moral reservations but because such weapons offer no tangible advantage.
“In reality, Russia has no moral constraints against using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. Yet they have refrained because these weapons won’t benefit them,” Erath explains.
Nuclear Blackmail as a Tactic
Experts stress that Russia’s nuclear threats aim to intimidate Ukraine and the West into halting support for Ukraine and accepting Russian terms for a ceasefire.
“Diplomacy and Continued Support for Ukraine”
Despite the heightened risk of nuclear conflict—the highest since the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, according to Bunn—experts emphasize the importance of diplomacy. John Erath notes the historical reduction of nuclear arsenals by 80% during the Cold War but acknowledges that further disarmament is unlikely in the current tense climate.
John Hardy, a security expert from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, urges the West to continue supporting Ukraine, including lifting restrictions on Western missiles targeting Russian territory.
A Growing Threat
The potential expiration of the New START Treaty in 2026, the last remaining agreement on nuclear arms reduction, adds to concerns about a renewed nuclear arms race.