Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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It could well be. If so, the Pentagon probably had some signals intelligence that this was in the works on the Russian side.

….sigint or had received a phone call….😉

Several embassies shut up shop yesterday, not just the US…

A phone call is a type of sigint. 😁

It is indeed…😄

Not formally confirmed ...

Tim White
@TWMCLtd

The
@WSJ
says a senior #NorthKorea General was wounded in #Ukraine's #StormShadow strike on the Command Post in #Kursk. The paper says a U.S. source has confirmed the news.

Andrey Baklitsky:

So, per Putin: not an ICBM, but a new “Oreshnik” (Hazel) conventional IRBM was tested against a target in Ukraine

Russia notified US 30 min before missile launch through the NRRC. Since it wasn’t an ICBM, it wasn’t covered by 1988 agreement, so this was goodwill gesture from Moscow, which apparently decided it will be in its interest to notify the US. This part is good

And this might be of interest re easier discussion on defence cuts. I've not listened yet it's only list for tmrw: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/bfbs-radio-sitrep/id314959811?i=1000677797641

I've not listened to it either, but this is likely what's being discussed:

https://www.naval-technology.com/news/royal-navy-finished-as-full-spectrum-force-as-albion-and-bulwark-axed/?cf-view

Remember that Marines are light infantry troops specializing in amphibious assault. Without amphibious assault ships, they can't support their primary mission. They should be transferred to the incredible shrinking British Army.

It's a sad day for a maritime nation like Britain.

just watching question time and good to see cross party politicians, all speakers and the audience making the case for continuing to stand up to Russia and support Ukraine. Also stated the need to increase funding now.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-20-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine conducted a successful combined strike against military assets in the Russian rear on the night of November 19 to 20 using drones and Western-provided long-range weapons. The November 19 to 20 strike series indicates that Ukraine has already begun leveraging Western-provided long-range weapons systems to assemble more complex and effective strike packages.
• Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces have been able to conduct optimized operational maneuver since Winter 2022-2023 due to legacy doctrinal and resource limitations, but both are learning, innovating, and adapting their respective tactics on the battlefield, emphasizing the dynamic nature of the current war.
• The US and Germany announced additional military assistance for Ukraine on November 20.
• Ukrainian officials continue to launch investigations into Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) and provide statistics on Ukrainians living under Russian captivity.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Pokrovsk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar and in Kursk Oblast.
• The Russian military command's lack of proper treatment of Russian soldiers and continued reliance on "meat assaults" is likely contributing to mass desertions.

I’m in Prague at the minute and a little out of the loop so just catching up now. The developments from yesterday feel quite significant but equally feel like they have a bit of a performative vibe to them (the use of a new mission, Purim’s televised address etc.) what do others think?

And to note that there are Ukrainian flags EVERYWHERE in Prague!

Yes that's well put @Igotjelly. I'd agree.
If I'm being positive about it, I think it suggests that there is an element of managed escalation going on too - ie it's good to see that lines of communication are open between Russia and the US

@MagicFox yes, I was pleased to hear about the advance warning being given.

I know ISW updates will be done later so apologies for preempting those, just thought this was interesting from today’s about yesterday’s ‘escalation’ -

Neither the Oreshnik ballistic missile strike nor Putin's November 21 statement represent a significant inflection in Russian strike capabilities or likeliness to use a nuclear weapon. Russian forces fire nuclear-capable Iskander ballistic missiles, Kinzhal hypersonic ballistic missiles, and nuclear-capable Kh-101 cruise missiles against Ukraine on a regular basis. Previous Russian missile strikes have targeted industrial and critical infrastructure including within Dnipro City that caused greater damage.[9] The only fundamentally new characteristic of the Russian strikes against Dnipro City on November 21 was the Oreshnik missile itself, which ostentatiously showcased reentry vehicles to amplify the spectacle of the strike and further imply a nuclear threat.[10][11] The West maintains credible deterrence options and Putin's nuclear saber-rattling should not constrain Western officials from choosing to further aid Ukraine. US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) Director Bill Burns cautioned Western policymakers against fearing Putin's nuclear rhetoric in September 2024, describing Putin as a "bully" who will "continue to saber rattle from time to time."[12

@Igotjelly appreciate the preview. Any news on how the Oreshnik missile performed? What are reentry vehicles?

ISW coming up.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-21-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin intensified his reflexive control campaign aimed at Ukraine and its Western partners by conducting an ostentatious ballistic missile strike against Ukraine that used multiple reentry vehicles on November 21.
• Putin explicitly threatened that Russia may attack Western countries that support Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia and rhetorically connected the November 21 ballistic missile strike to Russian nuclear capabilities - a marked intensification of an existing Russian information operation that aims to use explicit threats and nuclear saber-rattling to discourage continued Western military support for Ukraine. [UK really smart to allow storm shadow into Russia and then make defence cuts. <Head in hands> What is Labour doing with all these extra tax revenues they are gouging out?]
• Putin’s November 21 statement demonstrates that Moscow’s constant saber-rattling largely remains rhetorical.
• Neither the Oreshnik ballistic missile strike nor Putin's November 21 statement represent a significant inflection in Russian strike capabilities or likeliness to use a nuclear weapon.
• The Kremlin continues to demonstrate its full commitment to use the prospect of "negotiations" with Ukraine and the West to pursue nothing short of the total destruction of the Ukrainian state despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's efforts to posture himself as amenable to peace negotiations.
• North Korean troops are reportedly training alongside Russian naval infantry and airborne (VDV) units.
• North Korea's ability to learn and integrate lessons from fighting alongside Russia is likely to be significantly degraded if the Russian military command uses North Korean troops in the same highly attritional infantry-led assaults that it uses most Russian personnel.
• Russian forces recently marginally advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast southeast of Sudzha.
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Vuhledar. Russian forces recently advanced northwest of Kreminna, southeast of Chasiv Yar, in Toretsk, southeast of Kurakhove, northeast of Vuhledar, and likely advanced northeast of Velyka Novosilka.
• The Russian State Duma adopted a three-year federal budget with record defense expenditures from 2025-2027.

@blueshoes

Now idea how the missile performed but I’m hearing it’s a bit of a resurrection of a shelved design from a few years back.

What are reentry vehicles?

It’s the bit(s) usually at the top of the vehicle, that contains the warhead(s) and protects then from heating during re-entry into the earth’s atmosphere..so a something along the lines of a smaller version of the capsules you see astronauts coming back to earth in having been up in orbit.

Some missiles have multiple warheads, each contained within their own reentry vehicle, and often these days each one capable of (to a limited extent) being aimed at an individual target,

Hence these days in this context you’ll hear or read the acronym MIRV > Multiple Independently Targeted Re-entry Vehicles..

Just seen the ISW's adjective of the recent missile thing which seems to sum it up perfectly:

"Ostentatious"

It's an adjective that applies to so many of Putin's communications doesn't it? Perhaps all of them.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Russia used new 'Oreshnik' intermediate-range ballistic missile (kyivindependent.com/russia-used-intermediate-range-ballistic-missile-against-ukraine-putin-says/) against Ukraine, Putin says.
⚡️ Russian FM spokesperson asked not to comment (kyivindependent.com/russian-fm-spokesperson-asked-not-to-comment-on-ballistic-missile-strike-on-ukraine-during-briefing/) on ballistic missile strike on Ukraine during briefing.

⚡️Russia pre-notified (kyivindependent.com/russia-pre-notified-us-of-oreshnik-missile-strike-before-attack-on-dnipro/) US of 'Oreshnik' missile strike through nuclear risk reduction channels before attack on Dnipro.

⚡️ White House sees no indication (https://kyivindependent.com/white-house-sees-no-indication-of-russia-preparing-to-use-nuclear-weapons-in-ukraine/) of Russia preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

⚡️ US imposes sanctions on over 50 Russian banks (kyivindependent.com/us-imposes-sanctions-on-over-50-russian-banks-including-gazprombank/), including Gazprombank.

⚡️High-ranking North Korean general injured (kyivindependent.com/high-ranking-north-korean-general-injured-in-ukrainian-strike-on-kursk-wsj-reports/) in Ukrainian strike on Kursk, WSJ reports.

⚡️ 'Putin is using Ukraine as training ground,' Zelensky says (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-icbm/) after reported ICBM strike.

Investigation: Who helped Russians increase production (kyivindependent.com/investigation-who-helped-russians-increase-production-of-domestic-attack-drones-despite-sanctions/) of domestic attack drones despite sanctions
An investigation by the Kyiv Independent has found that Zala Aero, one of the largest manufacturers of Russian combat drones, has managed to continue to grow, despite sanctions, by feeding its production through a reliable system of Chinese suppliers.

⚡️ Recent Russian attacks hit 3 (kyivindependent.com/recent-russian-attacks-hit-3-of-ukrainian-energy-giant-dteks-5-operational-thermal-power-plants-reuters-reports/) of Ukrainian energy giant DTEK's 5 operational thermal power plants, Reuters reports.

⚡️ Parliament passes bill allowing first-time deserters to return to military service. (https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-passes-bill-allowing-first-time-deserters-return-to-military-service/) The contracts of these soldiers will continue to be valid if they voluntarily decide to return to their units.

⚡️ UK prepared to fight Russia (https://kyivindependent.com/uk-prepared-to-fight-russia-if-it-invades-eastern-european-nato-member-british-general-says/) if it invades Eastern European NATO member, British general says.

⚡️ Ukrainian UAVs reportedly strike Russian border regions (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-uavs-reportedly-strike-russian-border-regions/), industrial facility hit. The airport in the city of Volgograd, lying northeast of Rostov Oblast, temporarily suspended operations due to safety concerns, the Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) reported.

⚡️Ukraine's former commander-in-chief says Russia’s allies’ involvement signals global conflict (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-former-commander-in-chief-says-russias-allies-involvement-signals-global-conflict/).
Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine's former commander-in-chief and current ambassador to the U.K., claimed that World War III is underway. "What we've expected for so long has started. But I want to say that God Himself is giving a chance, not only to Ukraine but to the whole world, to have time to draw the correct conclusions now," Zaluzhnyi said.

⚡️ Ukraine '95% ready' to resume flights but needs adequate air defenses, minister says. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-flights/)

U.S. Republican politician Nikki Haley on Nov. 20 criticized Tulsi Gabbard, Donald Trump's nominee for the director of national intelligence, for her foreign policy stances, including her favorable positions towards Russia and other authoritarian regimes. https://kyivindependent.com/haley-gabbard/
"After Russia invaded Ukraine, Tulsi Gabbard literally blamed NATO, our Western alliance that’s responsible for countering Russia," said Haley.

Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel described Donald Trump as "fascinated by (Russian President Vladimir) Putin" and "by other authoritarian leaders," with a "winner-or-loser mentality" in excerpts from her new memoir published by Die Zeit on Nov. 21. https://kyivindependent.com/merkel-trump-putin/

⚡️UK sanctions (kyivindependent.com/uk-sanctions-ukrainian-oligarch-dmytro-firtash-and-others-in-anti-corruption-crackdown/) Ukrainian oligarch Dmytro Firtash and others in anti-corruption crackdown. Firtash allegedly “extracted hundreds of millions of pounds from Ukraine” and invested significant amounts of the gains in U.K. properties.

⚡️ Shahed drones that hit Sumy equipped with shrapnel munitions (kyivindependent.com/shahed-drones-that-hit-sumy-equipped-with-shrapnel-munitions-regional-governor-says/), regional governor says.

⚡️ Update: 26 injured (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kryvyi-rih/) in [yesterday's] Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson NOV 22, 2024
■ Engagements well above average but relatively few losses reported
■ 13 missiles fired of which 8 were intercepted
■ More 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes but fewer air strikes, only 1 🇺🇦 strike reported

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukraine and NATO will hold an emergency meeting following Russia's latest missile strike on Dnipro, AFP reports.

The Rubezh intercontinental ballistic missile is designed to deploy individually targetable warheads during an attack. According to footage from the strike on Dnipro, the missile released six such warheads, targeting multiple locations simultaneously.

The RS-26 "Rubezh" Intercontinental Ballistic Missile: What's Known
Primary Purpose: The RS-26 "Rubezh" is designed to deliver nuclear warheads but can also carry conventional high-explosive warheads. Its warhead weighs 1.2 tons, significantly more than the 480 kg of the "Iskander-M."
Range and Speed: The missile can strike targets up to 6,000 kilometers away. From certain launch sites, it could reach Kyiv in just 8–10 minutes.
Advanced Features: The RS-26 is equipped with four maneuverable, separable warheads. These warheads can change course during descent, making the missile harder to intercept with modern missile defense systems.
Development History: Russia began developing the RS-26 "Rubezh" about 18 years ago, violating the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty between the USSR and the United States.
Production Readiness: Analysts believe Russia has the capability to quickly resume production of RS-26 missiles, relying on existing technologies, supply chains, and manufacturing infrastructure.

At the start of autumn, Russia regained its position as the leading exporter of gas to the European Union, becoming the EU's main supplier of hydrocarbons for the first time since spring 2022, according to Eurostat data.
In September, European companies purchased €1.4 billion worth of gas from Russia, a 33% increase compared to both the previous month and the same period last year. Around 60% of these imports were pipeline gas, while the remaining 40% consisted of LNG.
The EU also recorded its highest monthly imports of Russian LNG since April, totaling €547.8 million in September.
The top importers of Russian LNG were:
▫️France: €215.7 million
▫️Belgium: €130.5 million
▫️Netherlands: €93.5 million

❗️Russia has supplied North Korea with anti-aircraft missiles in exchange for North Korean troops being sent to join the war in Ukraine, reports AP.

34 out of 66 Airbus A320neo and A321neo aircraft in Russia are grounded due to technical malfunctions, according to Russian media.
While some may be kept in reserve, up to 20 planes may never return to service. Sanctions are the main issue, as Russia cannot import spare parts, and repairs for these models are not conducted domestically.

Bluesky, the rapidly growing social media platform, has reached 20 million users, experiencing a surge in growth since the presidential election. Over the past five days, the platform has averaged 1 million new users daily.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

NATO Secretary General Rutte plans to meet with Trump soon to discuss negotiation strategies for resolving Russia’s war against Ukraine, The Washington Post reports.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has prepared a forecast of the global military-political situation up to 2045, which includes plans for an end to Ukraine as an independent state, according to Kyiv Post's intelligence sources. Moscow reportedly intends to convey this plan to the new US administration through foreign governments and representatives.
As previously reported by Interfax-Ukraine, the document proposes dividing Ukraine into three parts:

• Fully and partially occupied regions of Ukraine, which Moscow seeks to officially annex as part of Russia.
• The territory around Kyiv, referred to by Moscow as a “pro-Russian state entity” - a puppet state with pro-Russian authorities and Russian military presence.
• Western regions of Ukraine, referred to as “disputed territories” with their fate, to be determined in negotiations involving Russia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania.

Additionally, Ukrainian intelligence has obtained a Kremlin document outlining four potential scenarios for the development of wider international processes, two of which Russia considers most favorable.

Inside the South Korean Weapons Factory That Could Supply Kyiv
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42650

Russia Imposes Forced Enlistment in Occupied Ukraine Contrary to International Law
www.kyivpost.com/post/42607

Russia struck Dnipro on November 21, 2024, with a ballistic missile, likely from the “Kedr” missile system, according to Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence.
The missile reached the city in just 15 minutes. It carried six warheads, each containing six submunitions, and reached a speed of over Mach 11 in the terminal phase.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Donald Trump has selected a new candidate for the position of U.S. Attorney General — his longtime ally and former Florida Attorney General, Pam Bondi Pam Bondi is well-known for her role as one of Trump’s lawyers during his first impeachment trial in 2019.

Controversial Republican Matt Gaetz, whom Trump considered for the position of Attorney General, has withdrawn his candidacy. * *The House of Representatives is currently investigating allegations of Gaetz’s involvement in sexual relations with a minor.

🇺🇸🇺🇦 U.S. support for Ukraine will continue under a new administration led by Donald Trump and a new Congress, stated Michael McCaul, Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee

🇩🇪German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has announced that he will not run for the position of Federal Chancellor.

🇩🇪 Germany plans to mobilize 800,000 troops in the event of a Russian invasion of NATO, reports Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/unternehmen/operationsplan-deutschland-bundeswehr-bereitet-unternehmen-auf-den-kriegsfall-vor-110118573.html)
The publication refers to classified German documents, including “Operation Germany”—a 1,000-page plan outlining Berlin’s preparation for a potential World War III scenario.
The document details which buildings and infrastructure need protection and guides businesses and civilians on how to respond in case of a threat. Citizens are advised to prepare for worst-case scenarios, including considering the installation of generators.

🇩🇪 Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, in her memoirs “Freedom: Memories 1954-2021”, suggests that Putin planned the invasion of Ukraine after her resignation to hinder the country’s NATO membership.
Describing Putin, the ex-chancellor notes that he struck her as someone “desperately seeking to be taken seriously.”

American investor Stephen Lynch is reportedly interested in purchasing Nord Stream 2 at auction – (www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/a-miami-financier-is-quietly-trying-to-buy-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-f43dd85d)The Wall Street Journal (www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/a-miami-financier-is-quietly-trying-to-buy-nord-stream-2-gas-pipeline-f43dd85d)
Lynch believes that U.S. ownership of the pipeline would provide leverage in negotiations with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, while also serving America’s long-term strategic interests.
He hopes to acquire the pipeline for less than $11 billion, its current estimated value.
▪️Lynch lived in Russia for nearly 20 years, where he built a successful business by buying Russian assets at low prices. Although he was suspected of ties to the Russian government, these allegations were never proven in court.

🇺🇳This is a troubling development. Everything is moving in the wrong direction. We call for de-escalation, – UN Secretary-General’s spokesperson on Russia’s strike on Dnipro.

Thank you @notimagain Very knowledgeable. ISW said basically the same thing as you. It does seem 'ostentatious' mode of delivery if the missile is only carrying a non-nuclear payload. Not that I want to give anyone any ideas.

Found an image, for geeks out there.

I think that the pre warning to the US somewhat undermines their ‘message’ - if they truly believed they were at war with the US and UK and were willing to attack NATO territory then they wouldn’t care if the US knew about the use of the weapon. I think there’s just going to be lots of scary noise from the Kremlin in the coming weeks to try and force Trump’s hand.

At the start of autumn, Russia regained its position as the leading exporter of gas to the European Union, becoming the EU's main supplier of hydrocarbons for the first time since spring 2022, according to Eurostat data.

I despair 🤦‍♀️ are the powers that be hoping to sweep this little bit of nastiness on russias part under the carpet and carry on with business as usual?