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Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/10/2024 15:59

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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247
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 10:43

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

After 1,000 days of war, Russia has failed to conquer Ukraine. However, across the globe, beyond the military battlefield, Russia continues to advance in its undeclared war against the West.
General Ben Hodges, who commanded the US Army in Europe from 2014 to 2017, explains to Kyiv Post's Jason Smart that the Russian-Iranian-North Korean-Chinese alliance is a threat to the West and one that we must wake up and defeat before it is too late
Watch the full episode here: https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/42572

North Korea continues pouring arms into Russia, missiles, rocket launchers, artillery.
www.kyivpost.com/post/42587

Ukrainian Drones Strike Missile Arsenal in Russia’s Novgorod Region, Oil Depot in Samara Region
www.kyivpost.com/post/42544

As Kyiv sees its first snowfall of winter, several Ukrainian regions are left without power this morning after Russian missiles targeted industrial facilities and power plants across the country.
Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Odesa, Poltava, Chernihiv, Dnipro, and Donetsk, all affected.

FACT CHECK: Top Kremlin Spokeswoman Lies About German Dependence on Cheap Russian Gas
www.kyivpost.com/post/41932

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for November 21st, 2024
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42584

Russia Enters World War IV While the West Sleeps

Gen. Ben Hodges explains to Kyiv Post’s Jason Smart that the Russian-Iranian-North Korean-Chinese alliance is a threat to the West and one that we must wake up and defeat before it is too late.

https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/42572

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 10:47

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Twelve European countries and Ukraine have established a new defense cooperation format
The Northern Group-Ukraine format includes Nordic countries (Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Norway, Iceland), the Baltic states, as well as the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, and Poland.
The Minister added that the next meeting in the Northern Group-Ukraine format will take place in Ukraine.

🇺🇸 Donald Trump has appointed billionaire Howard Lutnick as the new U.S. Secretary of Commerce
The upcoming head of the U.S. Department of Commerce is significant, as the department oversees sanctions that prohibit exports, including semiconductors, to China and Russia.
Howard Lutnick, who became Trump’s chief economic advisor earlier this year, has called for tariffs to protect American industry, a reduction in corporate taxes, and an increase in U.S. energy production.
▪️Ahead of the presidential elections and the formation of the new Cabinet, Howard Lutnick gained the support of Elon Musk, who influences Trump’s personnel decisions.

🇮🇹 Italy will invest (www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-vidbudova/3929445-italia-investue-200-miljoniv-u-vidbudovu-ukrainskoi-elektromerezi.html) €200 million in rebuilding Ukraine’s power grid.

🇰🇵 North Korea has sent Colonel General Kim Yong Bok to lead its troops in Russia – (www.wsj.com/world/north-korea-sent-a-mystery-man-to-lead-its-troops-fighting-ukraine-b325e562?mod=hp_lead_pos9&fbclid=IwY2xjawGqpQNleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHeCe_HvE-SEF9EpTySyHajN4FEI7g85vuPS3n1gQYREfKZyEUiCrai_05g_aem_9e4B5-m84wnZX3jk59YLGw) The Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/world/north-korea-sent-a-mystery-man-to-lead-its-troops-fighting-ukraine-b325e562?mod=hp_lead_pos9&fbclid=IwY2xjawGqpQNleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHeCe_HvE-SEF9EpTySyHajN4FEI7g85vuPS3n1gQYREfKZyEUiCrai_05g_aem_9e4B5-m84wnZX3jk59YLGw) The general is one of North Korea’s top 10 military figures and frequently serves as an aide to Kim Jong Un, according to the publication. Officials in Kyiv and Seoul have reportedly confirmed his presence in Russia. [he's named, now]

The Economist suggests (www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2024/11/20/fighting-in-ukraine-could-wind-down-in-2025?fbclid=IwY2xjawGqkXdleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHb26xLb-snzRIA7il2gHdgaVC975XtTrciZ4Ttczwp-PizjfZFqctM-BNg_aem_72cdw59nzgG5g75o9wqb_w) that in 2025, Ukraine and Russia may begin negotiations under pressure from the United States and due to a lack of necessary weapons and funding. It is assumed that by that time, the fighting will subside, potentially leading to a “semi-frozen conflict“

🇧🇷The President of Brazil interrupted (www.reuters.com/world/lula-cuts-g20-discussion-short-ukraine-irking-europeans-2024-11-19/) the G20 discussion on the war in Ukraine, angering Europeans
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, whose country hosted the G20 summit, released a joint communiqué a day earlier to stop the discussion on the war in Ukraine.

In the credits of the game S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl, the developers dedicated it to the Ukrainian military
“Through death and pain, war, fear, and cruelty, Ukraine will endure and prevail. It has always done this and will do it again… Dedicated to all those who defended and are defending Ukraine. To all who made today possible. Eternal memory to all those taken by this war“, stated the GSC Game World team.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 10:56

So it seems Ukraine has given up on hopes of freeing Crimea.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 21/11/2024 11:04

Closer to home I'm shocked by the recent economies in defence spending given the war raging in Europe , this Times article sets out the issues:

A landing platform dock (LPD), as it is known in naval terminology, is like a dinner jacket: you don't need one very often but when the occasion ­demands, nothing else will do. Britain has two of these big amphibious assault ships, which allow the Royal Marines to deploy on a beach in strength anywhere from the tropics to the Arctic. Maintaining this capability has been a hallmark of ­British defence policy since the Second World War, and the wisdom of doing so was displayed in the Falklands conflict of 1982. Now, these precious assets, HMS Albion and HMS Bulwark, are to be sold or scrapped, victims of a yes-man chief of the defence staff (an admiral of all people), a yes-man defence secretary, and a prime minister and chancellor united in their strategic illiteracy.
This was the most eye-catching of the cuts ­announced by John Healey, the defence secretary, in the Commons on Wednesday. To save a mere £9 million a year to keep the LPDs, a rounding error of a rounding error in Ministry of Defence terms, Mr Healey decided to strike them from the fleet. The marine commando brigade trained to defend ­Nato's exposed Arctic flank must in future rely on only three civilian-manned amphibious ships (the crews are striking over pay) incapable of matching the assault ships' landing craft capacity.
There was more bad newss_. The navy is to lose HMS Northumberland, one of only nine frigates left, because she is too worn out to repair. Her sisters in the Type 23 class are similarly decrepit but replacements are years away due to the failure of ­Labour and Tory governments to invest in the surface fleet. By the time the first of a new generation of frigates touches the water the Senior Service could be reduced to six Type 45 destroyers and five Type 23s. This situation is a national disgrace. In addition the RAF helicopter fleet tasked with ­delivering the army to the battlefield is to be culled, losing 14 older Chinook heavy lifters and all of its equally antique medium-lift Pumas. Citing the forthcoming defence review, the government's ruse for delaying a rise in defence spending, Mr Healey said a decision on the Pumas' replacement must await its publication. Does he seriously expect anyone to believe that it takes a full-blown defence review to decide on a few dozen helicopters?
The Tories' response to Mr Healey's cuts ­announcement was muted. Hardly surprising since the parlous state of the armed forces is ­largely their fault. It was they who mothballed ­Albion and Bulwark and they who, like the Blair and Brown administrations, neglected the surface fleet. The entire political class shares the responsibility for allowing the nation's defences to rot. Gaps in capability are everywhere. As Britain joins the United States in allowing its missiles to be used against Russian territory, the country lacks a ground-based missile shield to fend off possible ­retaliation. The cutting of undersea fibre-optic cables in the Baltic, almost certainly a Russian operationn_­, possibly involving a Chinese merchant ship, shows how pressing is the threat to western interests. Yet yesterday, Mr Healey again refused to say when Labour will raise defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP, let alone the 3 per cent needed (the current 2.3 per cent will flatline in 2025-26).
Money, however, is not the only problem. The MoD excels at extracting minimum bang for buck from its £54 billion budget. The only items not in short supply are MoD civilian staff (64,000) and bloated numbers of admirals, generals and air marshals with increasingly little to command.
Admiral Sir Keith Blount, Nato's deputy commander in Europe, laments that Britons no longer understand the need for more defence spending. Politicians, more like. And the senior officers who stood by meekly as their services were eviscerated. Promising more cuts, Mr Healey said the service chiefs were on board. What would it take for one, only one, to summon the courage to resign?

notimagain · 21/11/2024 11:48

Mr Healey said the service chiefs were on board. What would it take for one, only one, to summon the courage to resign?

By the time service top brass UK side get to be chief, or close to they are completely political animals and are much more loyal to HMG/their pension/the idea of a seat in the Lords then their service.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 13:44

By the way a lot of pro-Ukraine Twitter people have left and moved to Bluesky now.

https://bsky.app/

People have made several starter packs which have gathered pro-Ukraine packs together.

Plus the Block function actually works.

Bluesky

Social media as it should be. Find your community among millions of users, unleash your creativity, and have some fun again.

https://bsky.app

biscuitandcake · 21/11/2024 14:42

katem98 · 20/11/2024 10:23

Also have been lurking forever.

@Igotjelly sorry to hear about your DD. I sympathise. I'd like to just echo what @MagicFox has said. 12 is a really tricky age and the only thing that ever helped my anxiety at that age was almost being told what I wanted to hear rather than hard facts. It really helped when my Mum would explain that there were much scarier times in the past and we've always come through stronger.

I remember not sleeping, not eating and being generally terrified when everyone in school would be talking about doomsday 2012 end of the world. I cried to my Mum for weeks and always felt better when she explained these theories had been around for years and years.

Sorry she's going through this.

If it helps, I also found talking to my son about the things I was scared about, very upset about when I was his age and a teenager helps. And the worries his grandma had as well. Like, its normal and good to be engaged with the world and politics but letting it get to the stage where you are panicked is a bad idea. Also, depending on whether its their thing or not, funny songs. e.g. or . But "hooray, hooray misery and dismay" was already a family saying in our house. So I guess it depends on the child/family whether that sort of thing cheers them up or makes them feel worse. But the point is, people were making jokes about this stress 70 years ago and every decade since.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music that you love, upload original content and share it all with friends, family and the world on YouTube.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WETT6oPznq4

biscuitandcake · 21/11/2024 14:46

MissConductUS · 19/11/2024 21:31

Stocks in the US have been trading sideways or down because Trump is going to run up the deficit, which will cause bond yields to rise. That's bad for stocks, because higher yields make bonds a more attractive investment, at least in the short run.

Trump's tariffs will also cause inflation to rise, which is also bad for stocks. It lowers the "real return" from investments in shares.

But both those things are good for Cryptocurrency so.... y'know. Priorities I guess.

herecomesautumn · 21/11/2024 14:48

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 13:44

By the way a lot of pro-Ukraine Twitter people have left and moved to Bluesky now.

https://bsky.app/

People have made several starter packs which have gathered pro-Ukraine packs together.

Plus the Block function actually works.

Twitter has become even more vile than before.

The number of bots with their "I agree". And "absolutely correct" under the most disgusting posts

Blue sky is much more adult

MissConductUS · 21/11/2024 14:57

biscuitandcake · 21/11/2024 14:46

But both those things are good for Cryptocurrency so.... y'know. Priorities I guess.

I think it's more down to Trump having a massive case of the Dunning Kruger Effect when it comes to economics and finance, as opposed to a devious plan to drive up crypto prices.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 14:59

hey MN team, a link from MissConduct ain't going to be grotty!

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 14:59

Oh, nm

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 15:07

For the military people - what is the significance of Russia using the ICBM for the first time? They hardly needed it in terms of distance. Is it a not-so-subtle threat of nuclear capabilities ... Again?

MagicFox · 21/11/2024 15:18

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 15:07

For the military people - what is the significance of Russia using the ICBM for the first time? They hardly needed it in terms of distance. Is it a not-so-subtle threat of nuclear capabilities ... Again?

I'm not military, just admin 😂 But thought Shashank Joshi's summary here was useful:

Russia has been striking Ukraine for two years with nuclear-capable weapons, incl. ballistic ones (Kinzhal)

  • Nonetheless, use of a novel delivery system is likely a signal of escalation
  • If RS-26 was used then it would be such a novel system. Whether it’s an IRBM or ICBM is subject to debate.
OP posts:
MagicFox · 21/11/2024 15:21

As I understand it it's unclear that the missile fired was an ICBM but, either way, the message is a signal that it could be loaded with an NW next time. Essentially, it's another sabre rattle but more of a physical than a verbal one. It should be taken seriously as all threats are and it is an escalation but it's not what the daily Mail are making out.

I also think that if launching an ICBM russia has to alert the US (to mitigate misunderstanding) so if it is, it looks like the US knew about it in advance and are now keeping quiet about it

OP posts:
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 15:23

Thanks @MagicFox :)

MissConductUS · 21/11/2024 15:30

I will defer to Shashank in this case.

I wouldn't assume that Russia would have notified the US about the launch, as the missile was never on a course that would have appeared to be targeted at the US or a US military asset.

MagicFox · 21/11/2024 15:52

MissConductUS · 21/11/2024 15:30

I will defer to Shashank in this case.

I wouldn't assume that Russia would have notified the US about the launch, as the missile was never on a course that would have appeared to be targeted at the US or a US military asset.

I wonder if the closing of the US embassy in Kyiv is tied up with this or not.

OP posts:
notimagain · 21/11/2024 16:00

*Russia has been striking Ukraine for two years with nuclear-capable weapons, incl. ballistic ones (Kinzhal)

  • Nonetheless, use of a novel delivery system is likely a signal of escalation
  • If RS-26 was used then it would be such a novel system. Whether it’s an IRBM or ICBM is subject to debate.*

Sounds a reasonable assessment to me..

As I hinted at in another thread the Russians have been firing “nuclear capable” (cf. Daily Mail, multiple occasions, including today ) missiles for two years plus.

They have also been using strategic/“intercontinental” platforms in a shorter range role for the last two years…classic example of this is has been the TU-95 Bear’s firing stuff at long range into Ukraine like the KH-22/AS-4 missile…

The Russians have been using shortish/intermediate range ballistic missiles in this war.

So at one level I don’t think it’s as massive an escalation as some are trying to paint it, but rightly or wrongly it’s certainly got peoples’ attention.

BTW if a genuine ICBM was used it’s a massively expensive way of delivering a smallish conventional payload relatively inaccurately, will have given those on the NATO side a free look at some aspects of how the Russians and their kit work and more importantly appear on their sensors….and it’s also one less delivery system the Russians have in locker…… every cloud and all that.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 16:25

BTW if a genuine ICBM was used it’s a massively expensive way of delivering a smallish conventional payload Was thinking that!

Given how poorly many Russian military items seem to have been maintained until 2022, I wonder if they have all been scrubbed up recently.

VioletSpeedwell · 21/11/2024 16:40

I was listening to the Rest is Politics podcast and RS said that Ukraine is struggling to recruit to its armed forces. Why is that?

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 21/11/2024 16:47

Simply not enough people, plus they don't have enough ammunition so tens of thousands have deserted, plus people know that there is little rotation so they don't get much rest. It's mainly lack of people though.

Russia has a population of 143million, Ukraine at absolute MAX 37 million but given the war, many Ukrainians have fled abroad.

VioletSpeedwell · 21/11/2024 16:50

So how is this ever going to be resolved?

Could the West have stopped this in its tracks?

notimagain · 21/11/2024 17:22

VioletSpeedwell · 21/11/2024 16:50

So how is this ever going to be resolved?

Could the West have stopped this in its tracks?

Well it would have helped if certain politicians had grown a spine a decade plus back, stopped pretending Putin was somebody who they could do business with, and for example sanctioned out of existence Russian government related interests post, for example, little miss understandings like the Salisbury poisonings.

Militarily I think the only thing that might have stopped this in it’s tracks would have been at some point >1000 days ago giving Ukraine no notice, NATO membership and shipping in significant numbers of NATO forces on day one…we now know it’s highly likely NATO would hand the Russian forces their backsides on a plate in a unrestricted conventional conflict….

However in the real world neither happened and worse still ever since the conflict started every time the west really tries to take a stand, or even indicates it might do so, Putin uses the N word and huge chunks of social media go into meltdown…

TBH my crystal ball isn’t that good….I have no solutions and it’s a worry, and not just with regard to Ukraine.

TheABC · 21/11/2024 17:48

WTF are the ministers playing at, eviscerating equipment ahead of Trump abandoning NATO whilst engaged in the proxy conflict with Russia? Are they mad?

In normal circumstances, the defence review is a cover for more cuts; I can't see how they can do so next year.

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