Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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I see. Thanks for clarifying. Not sure if that is more or less worrying.

Lots of Twitter reports that Ukraine have launched UK Storm Shadow missiles into russia for the first time.

x.com/archer83able/status/1859248558580351146?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

Also now confirming that the destruction of the undersea cables was definitely deliberate, not a positive development with China colluding openly with russia:

The Chinese vessel Yi Peng 3 has been chased, intercepted, and boarded by Danish Navy vessel Y311 Søløven after the Chinese vessel destroyed 2 undersea telecom cables linking Finland-Germany and Sweden-Lithuania.

The vessel sailed from Russia & the captain is Russian

x.com/visegrad24/status/1859132263746744367?s=46&t=eNB9C4pL0g2Opkl4oCmOsQ

I wonder how China is going to react to this.

I wonder how the West is going to react to this.

Could China have some plausible deniability here, by acknowledging they lent the vessel but that’s it?

China will say it's nothing to do with them

MissConductUS
There's a tradition in American politics that president elects keep their mouths shut, particularly about foreign affairs, until they take office. There's only one president at a time.

And Trump is abiding by this? I don't really think the fact that everyone else does it would keep him silent. I mean, the fact that every other presidential candidate has accepted it when they lost the election didn't stop him from trying to mount an insurrection....

I think because even the more bellicose types remember the lessons from the Continuation War, and don't even contemplate such a thing, let alone rattle the sabres.

As far as I've seen, he's abiding by this. I don't think he was happy about the decision to allow the attacks on targets inside Russia, but that's just an assumption on my part. He might see it as another policy point to bargain with later on.

I think he's also got his work cut out for himself, getting his more controversial cabinet appointments approved by the Senate.

Just sticking my head round the door to say thank you to all the regulars on these threads. I read them religiously, and find them especially reassuring when the more alarming threads and news stories start popping up. You all do good work - thank you.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-19-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces have defended against Russia's full-scale invasion for 1,000 days and continue to demonstrate incredible resilience against Russian aggression.
• Ukraine continues to improve its warfighting capabilities and prepare itself to be self-sustainable in the long term.
• Ukrainian forces conducted the first ATAMCS strike on Russian territory overnight on November 18 to 19, hitting a Russian ammunition depot in Karachev, Bryansk Oblast — days after obtaining permission to conduct such strikes.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin signed Russia's updated nuclear doctrine on November 19 in a clear response to the Biden Administration's decision to greenlight long-range strikes into Russia and as part of Putin's ongoing efforts to influence Western decision-makers into shying away from providing additional support to Ukraine.
• Russia’s adoption of an amended nuclear doctrine is the latest iteration of now-frequent Russian nuclear saber-rattling and does not represent a substantial change in Russia’s nuclear posture, doctrine, or the threat of the employment of nuclear weapons.
• The Kremlin has continuously attempted to use nuclear saber-rattling to deter Western military support for Ukraine, and the Kremlin's ongoing efforts to inject nuclear threats into the information space indicates that the Kremlin is concerned about the battlefield impacts of Ukrainian strikes into Russia with Western-provided weapons.
• Ukraine only recently has started receiving the weapons systems and military capabilities necessary to wage modern large-scale combat operations, and Ukraine may be able to conduct operationally significant counteroffensives in the future, provided the West reinforces building Ukrainian capabilities at scale.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kharkiv City.

* *

@PigglyWigglyOhYeah very well said 👏

I find this thread very comforting. It's also very interesting & informative.

I would never imagine I would be cheering on the use of missiles, but about bloody time!

Lovely to see people poking their heads in! wave

I agree! I love when lurkers feel comfortable to come in, I hate when long running threads become echo chambers.Everyone (Russian bots aside!) welcome here!

• Despite Russia's Black Sea Fleet currently being limited to the Eastern Black Sea, it retains the ability to conduct long range strikes into Ukraine in support of land operations.

After reading the rest of the update from Defence Intelligence which described a 25% reduction in capability and their subsequent relocation, this final paragraph struck me as a timely reminder that long range strikes are now available in both directions. 🤞🏼

Another very grateful lurker here, prone to catastrophising, following assiduously to get a reasoned, fact based viewpoint. Thank you - you keep me sane

Thanks for this. I and everyone else who analyzes what's happening here take great care to do so in a measured, factual, and non-inflammatory way.

There's also a great range of perspectives and areas of expertise among the regular contributors here. I think that's what's keep these threads going for so long.

Another lurker here who’s grateful for these threads. I spiralled a bit when things initially ‘kicked off’ so to speak, fuelled by Daily Mail & the umpteen threads on here about “is this WW3?” etc. I got to the point where I was checking the news constantly, debating with myself if I would have enough time to get to my DC’s nursery if something happened while I was at work, even debated saying I was going to work exclusively from home so that I was close by.

In the end I found the original of these threads and between that and ignoring the DM and the dramatic posts on here (and Twitter) I calmed down and got over my anxiety. Even now, with a second child to ‘worry about’ now too, I’m not too worried and this thread keeps me on an even keel if I find myself tipping.

Thank you all so much.

I just find these threads so grounding. Even when the news is terrible it reminds me that behind the headlines are real Ukrainian people who are overwhelmingly courageous and deserve to at least be recognised as such 🇺🇦 I find great solace in knowing without a doubt that in this I stood on the right side of history.

Not to mention beyond the sensationalist headlines lies the truth which is absolutely fascinating.

I think it bears repeating that by this time last year there had been over 100 nuclear threats by Russia, and that this change in nuclear doctrine has been in the works for months.

Naturally, being highly manipulative they'll make the most of the timing of the signing.

These threads are wonderful for keeping fear in check and providing calm, sane information and rational discussion, with occasional humour thrown in to lighten us up when the world feels dire at times.

Agreed, have followed it from the start and value the viewpoints and daily round-ups- the ex-military among you particularly keep me grounded and informed, so much appreciated.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump names Matthew Whitaker (kyivindependent.com/trump-names-matthew-whitaker-as-next-us-ambassador-to-nato/) as next US ambassador to NATO.
Whitaker, who served briefly as acting U.S. attorney general during Trump's first term, has no evident experience in national security, diplomacy, or foreign policy.

⚡️ Update: Russia attacked Dnipro (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-2/) with intercontinental ballistic missile, Kinzhal, 7 cruise missiles.
Russia attacked Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile, a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal air-launched ballistic missile, and seven Kh-101 cruise missiles, the Air Force said.

⚡️ Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant faces 2nd blackout (kyivindependent.com/zaporizhzhia-nuclear-plant-faces-2nd-blackout-of-the-week-after-russian-attacks/) of the week after Russian attacks.

⚡️Ukraine to pursue 'diplomatic' liberation (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-pursue-diplomatic-liberation-of-crimea-will-not-acknowledge-occupied-territories-as-russian-zelensky-says/) of Crimea, will not acknowledge occupied territories as Russian, Zelensky says.

⚡️Russian forces attack (kyivindependent.com/russian-forces-conduct-up-to-10-assaults-daily-near-kurakhove-military-says/) 10 times per day as they push toward Kurakhove, military says.

⚡️Ukraine strikes (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russia-with-storm-shadows-for-the-first-time-bloomberg-reports/) Russia with Storm Shadows for the first time, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️Biden seeks to cancel over $4.5 billion (kyivindependent.com/biden-seeks-to-cancel-over-4-5-billion-in-ukraines-debt/) in Ukraine's debt.

Greenpeace has warned that Ukraine’s power grid faces a "heightened risk of catastrophic failure" after a mass missile and drone attack on Nov. 17 targeted electrical substations essential for nuclear power plants, the Guardian reported on Nov. 20. https://kyivindependent.com/latest-strikes-on-ukraines-electricity-substations-threaten-power-failure-greenpeace-warns/

⚡️UN World Food Program allocates (kyivindependent.com/un-world-food-program-allocates-2-1-billion-to-ukraine-until-2027/) $2.1 billion to Ukraine until 2027. According to a U.N. estimate, Russia’s war against Ukraine has caused $80 billion worth of damage to its agricultural sector.

⚡️Parliament passes (https://kyivindependent.com/parliament-bills-military-service/) bills on military service, including draft deferral for civilians released from captivity

Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) warned on its Telegram channel that Russian intelligence services are amplifying the panic about the possible upcoming attack by spreading fake messages on social media. (kyivindependent.com/us-embassy-in-kyiv-warns/)

Germany has handed over ammunition for infantry fighting vehicles Marder, 41,000 rounds 155 mm ammunition, several reconnaissance drones, including Vector, Hornet XR, Golden Eagle, VT-4 Rochen, Songbird, and others. https://kyivindependent.com/germany-military-aid/

⚡️ Russia strikes humanitarian aid distribution point (kyivindependent.com/russia-strikes-humanitarian-aid-distribution-point-in-kherson-oblast/) in Kherson Oblast.
The attack targeted a building where volunteers were distributing bread to residents, officials said. A projectile struck the roof, damaging windows, the facade, and the roof itself. No injuries were reported.

⚡️Parliament backs (kyivindependent.com/parliament-bill-to-eliminate-medical-commissions/) bill to dissolve medical commissions in 1st reading after corruption scandals. Zelensky issued a decree in October to liquidate the commissions in the wake of accusations of Ukrainian officials using corrupt schemes to acquire falsified disability certifications.

⚡️ Parliament adopts bill to strip individuals supporting Russia of state awards. (kyivindependent.com/state-awards/)

⚡️Alleged Russian plan sees Ukraine 'cut' into 3 parts (kyivindependent.com/secret-russian-plan-sees-ukraine-cut-into-3-parts-intelligence-source-confirms/), intelligence source says.
Under the alleged plan, Ukraine's western lands could be claimed by neighboring countries, while its eastern regions would be annexed by Russia and the remaining territory converted into a Russian-controlled puppet state.

⚡️Russia, North Korea agree to increase charter flights (kyivindependent.com/russia-north-korea-agree-to-increase-charter-flights-following-trade-discussions-media-reports/) following trade discussions, media reports.

⚡️SBU exposes corruption scheme (kyivindependent.com/sbu-exposes-corruption-scheme-by-two-ukrainian-army-logistics-officers/) by two Ukrainian army logistics officers.
The scheme is believed to have defrauded the state of Hr 27.3 million ($662,000), which was funneled through a network of shell companies.

⚡️ Russia's FSB detains German citizen (kyivindependent.com/russias-fsb-detains-german-citizen-over-alleged-terrorist-plot/) over alleged 'terrorist plot.' The independent Russian news outlet Agentstvo identified Gaiduk as a 57-year-old native of Ukraine who had lived in Konotop in Sumy Oblast before moving to Germany.

⚡️ Hungary deploys air defenses (kyivindependent.com/hungary-deploys-air-defenses-near-ukraine/) near Ukraine, cites war escalation after US allows strikes in Russia.
Hungary is deploying air defense systems near the Ukrainian border, citing increased risks after the West allowed the use of long-range weapons inside Russian territory, Defense Minister Kristof Szalay-Bobrovniczky said on Nov. 20.

Russian officials threaten (kyivindependent.com/russian-officials-threaten-us-over-long-range-strikes-allude-to-nuclear-doctrine-changes/) US over long-range strikes, allude to nuclear doctrine changes.

Delayed by war, Ukraine’s long-awaited 'S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2' surges to the top of video game purchases (kyivindependent.com/delayed-by-war-ukraines-long-awaited-s-t-a-l-k-e-r-2-surges-to-top-of-video-game-purchases/)
More than two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion delayed its release and upended its developers’ lives, Ukraine’s "S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2" — one of the most anticipated video games of the year — was released on Nov. 20.
The game developers faced physical danger and frequent hacking attempts as the war delayed more than just the timing of the game's release.

⚡️Russian troops killed (kyivindependent.com/russias-military-reportedly-stripped-and-shot-two-ukrainain-pows-in-the-pokrovsk-region/) 2 Ukrainian POWs near Pokrovsk, prosecutors say. They were stripped naked and shot dead, according to the prosecutors. In a picture published by the prosecutors, two blurred naked bodies are seen lying on the ground.

⚡️ Belarusian who fought for Ukraine extradited (kyivindependent.com/belarusian-who-fought-for-ukraine-extradited-from-vietnam-to-belarus/) from Vietnam to Belarus.

⚡️ Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 3, injure 22 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-2/) over past day.
⚡️ Update: 15 injured (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kryvyi-rih/) in Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - NOV 21, 2024
■ More combat engagements, fewer casualties
■ Notable artillery losses & 2x air defence systems hit
■ Fewer 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes (but more air strikes), improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Russia Launches Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Over Dnipro, — Ukrainian Air Force
This is the first combat use of an intercontinental ballistic missile in history. https://t.me/United24media/26933

Ukraine’s Armed Forces possess only around 50 American ATACMS tactical missiles, according to The Times.
While Ukraine has sufficient HIMARS and MLRS rocket launchers to deploy these missiles, the limited supply means the military command will need to carefully prioritize targets on Russian territory.

Poland is preparing its 45th aid package for Ukraine and has already begun work on the next defense package, President Zelenskyy said after speaking with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

🇩🇪 Germany has delivered a new military aid package to Ukraine, which includes:
• Ammunition for Marder infantry fighting vehicles
• 47 mine-resistant ambush-protected vehicles (MRAPs)
• 1 TRML-4D radar (pictured)
• 4 Panzerhaubitze 2000 self-propelled guns
• 41,000 rounds of 155-mm artillery ammunition
• 7 M109 self-propelled guns
• 314 reconnaissance drones of various types
• 1 Beaver armored bridge-laying vehicle
• 3 WISENT 1 demining systems
• 3 mine plows
• 8 Caracal tactical airborne vehicles
• 6 M1070 Oshkosh heavy-duty semi-trailers

North Korean Military Personnel Deployed in Russia Assigned to Marines and Airborne Forces — DW
South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) reports that around 11,000 North Korean military personnel have been stationed in Russia’s Kursk region. These troops underwent training in northeastern Russia to adapt to local conditions.
Before deployment to combat zones, some received training in combat tactics and drone response. Reports indicate that some have already participated in combat, with casualties among them.
Additionally, NIS states that North Korea is supplying Russia with long-range artillery, including 170-mm self-propelled howitzers and 240-mm MLRS.

Russians attacked Dnipro, damaging an industrial enterprise and causing two fires in the city, according to the head of the regional military administration, Serhii Lysak.

🤡 Belarus Claims Threat of Attack from Poland, Lithuania, and Ukraine
Belarusian state television is once again warning of an alleged attack, focusing on four southwestern territories of the country.

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