Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Welcome back @BringBackCoffeeCreams
The Finnish government has just published a whole bunch of preparedness guides too, online and some people are overreacting here, spreading panic that it's a sign war is coming. It's ridiculous, most of the guides are for things like power cuts, extreme weather and things like keeping yourself stable in uncertain situations.

Which to be honest given the hybrid warfare seems eminently sensible!

@Igotjelly Your poor little girl.

With my youngest, he was afraid and I said pragmatically that we live in a very safe land and unfortunately for them, it's the countries that border Russia that need to be afraid. That Russia isn't our friend but mainly they work by talking bad things about us, and not attacking.

I realise this is harsh, but it reassured him that we were safe. He is afraid of the nuclear weopons, but I said that Russia won't dare to use them because it depends on China and China is completely against them being used.

Might any of those lines help? 12 is a difficult age; too aware to be easily reassured.

and hi @BringBackCoffeeCreams nice to see you again :)

It’s such a tough age, she’s old enough to know what’s going on without the cognitive ability to understand it fully.

I explained to her about diplomacy and the fact that lots of clever people are constantly working to reduce the risk but that what they do isn’t very interesting so it doesn’t make the news. I also explained that the US govt have said they don’t see any reason to change their own posture which means they don’t have intelligence of an imminent attack. She went off to school feeling a little better.

Anyone else think the silence from Trump is deafening (Donald Jr aside). Surely if he hadn’t known about the change in policies he would have been jumping up and down in hysterics about Biden trying to undermine his attempt at a deal?

Also have been lurking forever.

@Igotjelly sorry to hear about your DD. I sympathise. I'd like to just echo what @MagicFox has said. 12 is a really tricky age and the only thing that ever helped my anxiety at that age was almost being told what I wanted to hear rather than hard facts. It really helped when my Mum would explain that there were much scarier times in the past and we've always come through stronger.

I remember not sleeping, not eating and being generally terrified when everyone in school would be talking about doomsday 2012 end of the world. I cried to my Mum for weeks and always felt better when she explained these theories had been around for years and years.

Sorry she's going through this.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The Russian Defense Ministry and several media outlets claimed on Nov. 19 that Ukraine launched U.S.-made ATACMS missiles against Russia's Bryansk Oblast, according to the state news agency TASS. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-media-claim-ukraine-used-atacms-in-russia-for-first-time/

Telecom cables linking two Nordic countries with Germany and Lithuania were cut at the bottom of the Baltic Sea, raising suspicion of sabotage, various media outlets reported on Nov. 18. https://kyivindependent.com/severed-internet-cables-raise-suspicion-of-sabotage-in-baltic-sea/

⚡️ 'Putin is playing with our fears' — German FM on Russia's updated nuclear doctrine. (https://kyivindependent.com/baerbock-putin-nuclear-doctrine/)

⚡️ No signs Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, Pentagon says. (kyivindependent.com/pentagon-russia-nuclear-weapons/)

⚡️ US Embassy in Kyiv warns of 'potential significant' Russian aerial attack (kyivindependent.com/us-embassy-in-kyiv-warns/) on Nov. 20.

⚡️ Russia claims to capture village near Kurakhove (kyivindependent.com/novoselydivka/), Kyiv hasn't confirmed.

⚡️Biden reportedly approves (kyivindependent.com/biden-anti-personnel-mines-to-ukraine/) delivery of anti-personnel mines to Ukraine in light of Russian gains in east.

⚡️Russia behind (kyivindependent.com/russia-behind-recent-bomb-threats-at-czech-slovak-schools-czech-intelligence-chief-says/) recent bomb threats at Czech, Slovak schools, Czech intelligence chief says.
The director of the Czech Security Information Service, Michal Koudelka, said on Nov. 18 that Russia was behind a flurry of bomb threats made against schools in Czechia and Slovakia in recent months.
Hundreds of Czech and Slovak schools received bomb threats sent over email after students returned from their summer break in September, leading to multiple school closures, local media reported.

⚡️ North Korean troops in Russia to be led by secrecy-shrouded general close to Kim Jong Un, WSJ reports. (kyivindependent.com/kim-yong-bok/)
Kim Yong Bok, officially the Deputy Chief of the Army General Staff, is expected to oversee the integration of North Korean troops into Russian forces, gain combat experience, and establish a framework for future deployments, the Wall Street Journal reported.

⚡️ Putin open to discussing Ukraine ceasefire (kyivindependent.com/putin-trump-ceasefire/) with Trump, Reuters reports but rejects major territorial concessions and insists that Ukraine abandon plans to join NATO, Reuters reported on Nov. 20, citing five former and current Russian officials.

⚡️ Ukraine readies to start 1st cluster of EU accession talks in early 2025, Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-readies-to-start-1st-cluster-of-eu-accession-talks-in-early-2025-zelensky-says/)

⚡️ EU ready to step up support for Ukraine if US reduces aid, Polish FM says. (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-ready-to-step-up-sikorski-says/)

⚡️ Ukraine not planning to lower mobilization age, Zelensky says. (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-presents-ukraines-resilience-plan-to-parliament/)
Speaking to the parliament on Nov. 19, heinstead called for new approaches to mobilization management, the establishment of a military ombudsman, and the creation of a new contract system for citizens below the age of mobilization.

⚡️ Ukraine's parliament approves state budget (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-parliament-approves-state-budget-for-2025/) for 2025.
The state expects to get Hr 2 trillion ($48.2 billion) in revenues, while expenditures are planned at Hr 3.6 trillion ($86.8 billion).

⚡️US to announce (kyivindependent.com/us-to-announce-275-million-military-aid-package-to-ukraine-ap-reports/) $275 million military aid package to Ukraine, AP reports.

⚡️Denmark to provide (kyivindependent.com/denmark-to-provide-over-137-million-for-ukrainian-defense-industry/) over $137 million for Ukrainian defense industry.

⚡️UK, Germany, Canada, Luxembourg announce (kyivindependent.com/uk-germany-canada-luxembourg-announce-additional-30-million-for-drone-coalition-funding/) additional $30 million for drone coalition funding.

⚡️ Ukrainian drones allegedly strike Russian factories, (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-strikes-russia-factory-weapons-arsenal/) weapons arsenal.
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov said that drone wreckage damaged the premises of an enterprise in the town of Alekseevka on Nov. 19.

⚡️ Update: Georgian police detain 16 (https://kyivindependent.com/georgian-police-disperse-protesters-in-tbilisi/) amid crackdown on protests.

Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) on Nov. 19 announced the detention of two residents of Russian-occupied Crimea in connection with a car bombing in Sevastopol on Nov. 13 that killed Russian Navy officer Valery Trankovsky. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-fsb-reports-detentions-over-crimea-car-bombing/

⚡️ Ukraine aims to produce 30,000 long-range drones, 3,000 missiles, Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-missiles-drones/)

⚡️South Korea has not participated (kyivindependent.com/south-korea-has-not-participated-in-czech-initiative-to-purchase-shells-for-ukraine-official-says/) in Czech shell initiative for Ukraine, official says.

⚡️Ukrnafta acquires (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrnafta-acquires-51-share-in-shells-gas-station-network-in-ukraine/) 51% share in Shell's gas station network in Ukraine.

⚡️Increasing number of Ukrainians favor (kyivindependent.com/ukrainians-poll/) peace talks, poll suggests.
As attitudes around potential future peace negotiations continue to shift in Ukraine, 52% of Ukrainians now say that they would like to see their country negotiate an end to the war "as soon as possible," according to a survey published by Gallup on Nov. 19.
The survey, released ahead of the anticipated harsh winter months amid Russian energy attacks, highlights that approximately 10% to 12% of Ukraine's population living in Russian-occupied territories were excluded from the poll.

MP Yaroslav Zhelezniak: Developments in Ukraine’s parliament on economic reforms, international obligations — Issue 82 (kyivindependent.com/mp-yaroslav-zhelezniak-developments-in-ukraines-parliament-on-economic-reforms-international-obligations-issue-82/)

⚡️ Over 50,000 Ukrainian recruits (kyivindependent.com/over-50-000-ukrainian-recruits-receive-training-in-uk/) have received training in UK.

⚡️ Ukraine’s resilience plan includes multiple citizenship (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-presents-ukraines-resilience-plan-to-parliament/) for Ukrainians. The Ukrainian Constitution specifies that Ukrainians can hold only a single citizenship. Zelensky submitted a bill legalizing multiple citizenship to the parliament in August.

Deputy energy minister: How Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has endured over 1,000 attacks in 1,000 days of full-scale war (https://kyivindependent.com/deputy-energy-minister-how-ukraines-energy-infrastructure-has-endured-over-1-000-attacks-in-1-000-days-of-full-scale-war/)

⚡️ ‘Ukraine may need to outlive someone in Moscow to achieve all the goals,’ Zelensky says. (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-presents-ukraines-resilience-plan-to-parliament/)

⚡️Russian attacks against Ukraine kill (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-kill-2-injure-30-over-past-day/) 2, injure 30 over past day.

⚡️ Update: Russian attack against Kharkiv injures 9 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-against-kharkiv/).

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - NOV 20, 2024
■ 6th highest casualties
■ Drone, artillery & vehicle losses above average, 2 air defence systems ■ Record weekly vehicle losses
■ Janovsky: 58 🇷🇺 25 🇺🇦 added (2.3:1); 30-day ratio at 2.5x ⬇
■ Increased 🇷🇺 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Peskov stated that Putin would not accept freezing the war, despite appearing open to negotiations.

⚡️ Denmark will send two more batches of F-16 fighters to Ukraine, according to Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen.
In total, Ukraine will receive 19 aircraft. [excellent!]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces launched 8 ATACMS missiles at Russia overnight, with the Russian Armed Forces intercepting only two, a Pentagon source told Reuters.

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen arrived in Kyiv yesterday.

The New York Times sources in the US and Ukraine allegedly confirmed a nighttime ATACMS missile strike on a warehouse in the Bryansk region

The US sees no need to adjust its nuclear deterrence policy following Russia’s decision to update its nuclear doctrine, Bloomberg reports, citing a National Security Council representative.

He noted that Russia’s move was not a surprise to the US. [actually this change in nuclear doctrine was announced quite a few weeks ago, iirc]

In Kyiv, at the base of the “Motherland” monument, an event was held to mark 1,000 days since the start of the large-scale war. https://t.me/United24media/26892 https://t.me/United24media/26892

The UK, meanwhile, has pledged over $9.5 million to support the development and production of new strike and reconnaissance drones in Ukraine. These funds will be channeled through the Drone Coalition on the Ramstein format platform.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has called for €1.9 billion from frozen Russian assets, expected to become available in March-April, to support Ukraine’s defense industry.

The Pentagon is preparing a new defense aid package for Ukraine worth at least $275 million, according to AP. The package will include HIMARS artillery rocket systems and Javelin anti-tank munitions.
The aid will be provided through the Presidential Drawdown Authority (PDA), enabling the Pentagon to swiftly transfer weapons from its stockpiles for rapid delivery to Ukraine’s front lines.

Almost all available resources in Russia’s economy are already in use, according to Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank.
She noted that unemployment has hit a historic low of 2.4%, while 73% of businesses face staff shortages. Factory capacity utilization has exceeded 80%, further straining the labor market.
“When the economy reaches its production limits but demand continues to grow, stagflation occurs. To avoid this, we are raising the key rate,” Nabiullina explained.
Rosstat reports that while the economy is still growing, the pace is slowing due to rising loan costs, the loss of Western markets in raw materials industries, and defense plants operating at full capacity.
Next year, the Central Bank predicts GDP growth of only 0.5-1%, with stagnation likely. Investment and private consumption growth may halt entirely. The IMF also forecasts a slowdown, projecting growth to drop from 3.9% this year to 1.3% in 2024.
According to wealthy Russians interviewed by Bloomberg, the economy is deteriorating. Western companies’ exit has degraded production capabilities, import substitution is slow, and mass mobilization for the war is worsening the labor shortage.

🪖 Russia continues to face heavy losses in the war, with October marking the highest number of killed and wounded soldiers since the start of the full-scale invasion. However, the Russian army is far from depleted. According to The New York Times, Russia managed to mobilize around 900 people daily in the first half of 2024.

👀 The Ukrainian Air Force’s Center Air Command has shared a photo of an F-16 pilot, highlighting a key piece of advanced technology—the helmet. The image showcases a modernized HGU-55/P helmet with the Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS).
This system offers pilots cutting-edge capabilities, allowing them to “guide” infrared missiles with just a glance and view targets detected by radar or the Datalink system without relying on the head-up display (HUD).
For comparison, Ukrainian Soviet-era fighters (MiG-29 and Su-27) have a similar system, but it falls far behind the JHMCS. The Soviet system is less reliable, has limited functionality, and is mainly used for guiding infrared missiles and working with the aircraft’s electronic-optical system. However, due to its fragility and limitations, it is rarely used in real missions, unlike the widely utilized JHMCS on Western aircraft. @notimagain

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Said to be Ukraine’s first deep strike using new US permissions to hit deeper into Russian territory, an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region has been detonating for hours after locals claimed incoming rockets.

Ukraine appears to now be hitting deep Russian targets with AmerIcan ATACMS.
www.kyivpost.com/post/42478

AvtoVAZ the largest car conpany in Russia, forecasts a 21–30% decline in Russia's automotive market for 2025, attributing this to the Central Bank's high key interest rate of 21%, which has increased borrowing costs and reduced consumer purchasing power. The company also faces challenges from rising production expenses and intensified competition from Chinese manufacturers. In response, AvtoVAZ is seeking government support to mitigate these financial pressures.

Kyiv Post Morning News Roundup for November 20th, 2024
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42520

The all-female Ukrainian anti-aircraft team, whose recently viral video captured their first Russian missile takedown, was honored by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in Kyiv.
Nataliia Hrabarchuk fired the missile, Valentyna Steblevets triangulated the target, and Olha Maksymenko filmed.

Russian Drone Kills Entire Family in Hlukhiv, Sumy Region
A 43-year-old woman, Tetiana, and her two sons, 7-year-old Nikita and 20-year-old Vasyl, were killed in their home during a Russian drone attack.
Nikita was just days away from his 8th birthday when his life was tragically cut short by the strike, local authorities report.
The attack on a residential complex in Hlukhiv on November 18 claimed the lives of 12 people in total.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Chinese vessel spotted near severed cables in the Baltic sea
The cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was observed (www.hs.fi/suomi/art-2000010843541.html) traveling near communication cables between Finland and Germany, and Lithuania and Sweden, around the time when disruptions were detected. The vessel subsequently docked in Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Gulf of Finland.
▪️Both incidents occurred just weeks after the U.S. reported increased Russian military activity around critical underwater cables.
▪️The German government suspects sabotage rather than an accidental occurrence.
The red line on the map indicates the Finland-Germany communication cable, while the blue line shows the route of the Chinese vessel.

“The issue lies in mobilization and manpower,” said (www.pbs.org/newshour/show/kyiv-stands-sullivan-says-u-s-role-in-defending-ukraine-defines-bidens-legacy?fbclid=IwY2xjawGpoYZleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHfxqDeYC_H5txgW8qbYIU4KV-7e1N1oaU3TjBWE3r70OxA7LYE4neMbfjg_aem_9jFSXzoz0T6gzvSes9dIFw) U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, naming this as the reason for the challenging situation on the Ukrainian front.

The electricity supply situation in Odesa is currently among the most challenging in Ukraine — the city has been in a blackout for three days

The death toll in Hlukhiv has risen to 12 people. One more person is still being searched for under the rubble of the dormitory

🤡Anders Behring Breivik, sentenced to 21 years for killing 77 people in 2011, appeared in court for a parole hearing with a "Z" shaved into his head.

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress

The Ukrainian Air Force’s Center Air Command has shared a photo of an F-16 pilot, highlighting a key piece of advanced technology—the helmet. The image showcases a modernized HGU-55/P helmet with the Joint Helmet-Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS).
This system offers pilots cutting-edge capabilities, allowing them to “guide” infrared missiles with just a glance and view targets detected by radar or the Datalink system without relying on the head-up display

Thanks for the link.

Those sort of helmets can do all sorts of fancy stuff that we could only dream of back in the day, for example and as the article says visually designate an IR missiles seeker head to point at a target off the nose prior to launch (whether the missile can cope with the geometry of any turn after launch is another matter)…no need to lock up on radar or faff around using other less precise/slower methods which was the case when I was last involved way way back.

Down side is they’re chuffing expensive and you sure as heck don’t want to drop the thing when you’re walking to/from the aircraft.

I don’t know what the cost is for the HGU-55 as described but I think I’ve seen close to $500,000 quoted for one helmet equipped with all the gizmos as used on F-35…kind of puts the magnitude of some of the aid packages into context….Fighting a war, or even just preparing for it, is an expensive business.

There's a tradition in American politics that president elects keep their mouths shut, particularly about foreign affairs, until they take office. There's only one president at a time.

Chinese vessel spotted near severed cables in the Baltic sea
The cargo ship Yi Peng 3 was observed (www.hs.fi/suomi/art-2000010843541.html) traveling near communication cables between Finland and Germany, and Lithuania and Sweden, around the time when disruptions were detected. The vessel subsequently docked in Russia’s Ust-Luga port on the Gulf of Finland.

Current state of play is that according to the maritime tracking sites the YI Peng 3 is still stationary (“At anchor”) in the Kattegat.

And according to the Danish Authorities via X at Noon Central European Time.

“Regarding the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3: The Danish Defence can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3. The Danish Defence currently has no further comments.”

how is your DH feeling about it all (and you!) I'll admit that the recent headlines have rattled me slightly and I hate that I've let it!

He doesn't appear to be bothered at all. He was at an EU nuclear disaster preparedness summit in Finland a couple of weeks ago and the biggest concern appears to have been how expensive Moomin souvenirs were. He's started feeding his stockpile of tinned fish to the cats.

[rant]

Sorry, going to have to vent and say *k me, I see Mumsnet has allowed yet another “I’m worried..”. …”What should we do…”…”What should the UK …” thread to start running this AM.

The FSB and their fellow travelers/friends in the west/useful idiots in the west are doing a good job at rattling people via social media.

[/rant]

Note to self..stop clicking on those threads, it pushes them up the active list….

It does feel like MN should be doing some sort of safeguarding. I noticed the one from yesterday was a first time poster on MN, can't say it surprised me.

I think that we all need to report these threads if we can, especially from new posters or with new posters on them. It takes time and a bit of effort but it's a small but crucial element of fighting the Russian propaganda machine.

What's notable today is that the economic report from Russia is pretty awful - and that's only what we actually hear. Elvira Nabiullina's report predicting GDP growth of only 0.5-1% and general stagnation, and the car industry report (indicating a 21-30% drop in the car market next year) are both indicative of severe problems.

I'm concerned that the Chinese ship apparently involved in the cables cutting is a sign that Chinese support for the war is becoming more overt.

Another thing of note is the poll reporting that more Ukrainians are in favour of peace.

There's being in favour of peace- most people, and being in favour of peace at any cost- not so many. These polls don't always distinguish between the options and only give the first.

I'm concerned that the Chinese ship apparently involved in the cables cutting is a sign that Chinese support for the war is becoming more overt.

So is this a sign that China now engaging in hybrid warfare if the Chinese ship is found to be deliberate in cutting 2 cables. Learning from the Russians.

Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. The third time, it is enemy action - Ian Fleming, quoted in The Atlantic.

I will be on it re: reporting. Cannot bear to read those threads though.

It's captained by a Russian. So China have lent the ship but didn't man it

I've been on and off that one too and have given up

Does Finland not have its more bellicose types? I would have half expected a Finnish response to be - isn't this the perfect opportunity to grab back some of the territory Russia stole in the 1940s? And I have to say, while not actually supporting any such action, I think I would rather like Russia to think such action might be possible (as that would surely mean moving troops that are currently fighting Ukraine to the border, my impression is that they have left that border very undefended), but it sounds like sabre rattling is not on the cards - which is very interesting. Why do you think that is?