Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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I know, horrendous @Igotjelly

Yeah, and initial reports are that its most likely intentional, and concern its a practice run for a bigger act of sabotage

1000 days, fuck. Times like this it feels like its never going to end.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-18-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian officials continued to use threatening rhetoric as part of efforts to deter the United States from publicly authorizing Ukraine's use of US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets in Kursk Oblast. This US authorization, if officially confirmed, would notably be a mild response to Russia's escalatory introduction of North Korean troops as active combatants in Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• Putin's introduction of North Korea as a new belligerent in his invasion of Ukraine was a major escalation. Allowing Ukraine to use US missiles against legitimate military targets in Russian territory in accord with all international laws and laws of armed conflict is a very limited response and cannot reasonably be characterized as an escalation in itself.
• French and British sources clarified on November 18 that the reported US permissions regarding Ukraine's ability to use ATACMS for limited strikes within Russia do not inherently extend to Ukraine's ability to use French and UK-provided SCALP and Storm Shadow missiles for long-range strikes in Russia. [what?]
• The Kremlin continues to state its unwillingness to accept any compromises, including those that would "freeze" the conflict along the current frontline – further demonstrating the Kremlin's insistence on complete Ukraine capitulation.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast, in Kupyansk, west of Kreminna, and in the Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Vuhledar directions.
• The Kremlin is continuing to militarize different levels of the Russian government by expanding the "Time of Heroes" program that aims to place veterans of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in positions in local, regional, and federal governments.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) illegally conscripted Ukrainian youth in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts as part of Russia's Fall 2024 conscription cycle.

1000 days of hell. But I'd like to celebrate the resilience and heart and courage of Ukrainians. And the knowledge and care and love of the posters who keep these threads going. 💞

Agree, rather than being horrified at 1000 days of Russian savagery I'm going to choose to celebrate 1000 days of staunch Ukrainian resistance and spirit! Putin's 3 day war is going exactly as planned.

Seconded!

Three days to a thousand, and approaching 3/4 million dead.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Borrell confirms (https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-confirms-us-authorization-for-ukraine-to-strike-deep-into-russia-with-missiles-up-to-300-km-in-range/)US authorization for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia with missiles up to 300 km in range.

⚡️Ukraine marks 1000 days (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-marks-1000-days-war/) of full-scale war.

⚡️ Scholz's stance on Taurus unchanged (kyivindependent.com/scholz-taurus-long-range-strikes/) despite US permission on long-range strikes.

⚡️ Turkey's peace plan (kyivindependent.com/turkeys-peace-plan-for-war-in-ukraine-unacceptable-russia-says/) for war in Ukraine 'unacceptable,' Russia says.

⚡️ Zelensky visits key front-line town of Pokrovsk. (https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-visits-pokrovsk/)

⚡️ Ukraine's GDP grows by 4.2% (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-gdp-grows-by-4/) in 10 months of 2024.
Ukraine’s economy grew by 4.2% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2024 thanks to the construction, transportation, and manufacturing sectors, the country's Economy Ministry said on Nov. 18.

⚡️ Zelensky presents Ukraine's resilience plan (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-presents-ukraines-resilience-plan-to-parliament/) to parliament.
The individual points were focused on the country's unity, front-line situation, arms, finances, energy, security, communities, human capital, cultural sovereignty, and veterans, lawmaker Yaroslav Zhelezniak said on his Telegram channel.

⚡️President of Russian-occupied Abkhazia resigns (kyivindependent.com/president-of-russian-occupied-abkhazia-resigns-amid-protests/) amid protests.

UN watchdog confirms (kyivindependent.com/un-watchdog-confirms-riot-control-agent-used-on-ukraine-battlefield/) riot control agent used on Ukraine battlefield
The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) confirmed on Nov. 18 that a riot control agent known as CS has been used in Ukraine, as evidence mounts that Russia has scaled up its attacks using chemical weapons in recent months.

⚡️EU widens sanctions on Iran (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-widens-sanctions-on-iran-for-supporting-russias-war/) for supporting Russia's war.

⚡️Duda criticizes Scholz's call to Putin, saying 'it's a mistake (https://kyivindependent.com/duda-criticizes-scholzs-call-to-putin-saying-its-a-mistake/)'

⚡️ Georgian police disperse protesters (kyivindependent.com/georgian-police-disperse-protesters-in-tbilisi/) in Tbilisi, but organizers promised a quick resumption elsewhere.

Ukrainian forces struck an arsenal of a Russian logistics center in the town of Karachev in Bryansk Oblast overnight on Nov. 19, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported. https://kyivindependent.com/bryansk-oblast-arsenal/

⚡️ Putin approves Russia's updated nuclear doctrine (kyivindependent.com/putin-approves-russias-updated-nuclear-doctrine/).
The revised doctrine outlines scenarios that could justify a nuclear strike. The document implies that this could include "aggression against the Russian Federation and its allies by a non-nuclear state with the support of a nuclear state" and large-scale non-nuclear attacks, such as those carried out with drones.

‘Battle-tested in Ukraine’ — How US drone makers turned Ukraine into a tagline to sell west (kyivindependent.com/battle-tested-in-ukraine-how-us-drone-makers-turned-ukraine-into-a-tagline-to-sell-west/)
“You cannot field an American drone system today that doesn't have the moniker of ‘battle-tested in Ukraine’ on it. You can’t. Which is why everybody’s trying to do it,” says James Acuna, a 20-year CIA operations officer and former naval architect, currently consulting on drones from Estonia.

Ukraine's small towns see unexpected attention (kyivindependent.com/not-waiting-for-ukraines-reconstruction-a-u-s-entrepreneur-is-expanding-his-business-in-small-town-ukraine/) from a US entrepreneur

⚡️Ukrainian musician Khlyvnyuk rejects Magnitsky Award (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-musician-khlyvnyuk-rejects-magnitsky-award-declines-to-share-honor-with-navalnaya/), declines to share honor with Navalnaya.
"As the father of two children living under missile strikes ... I cannot receive this award together with other laureates who are 'not sure' of the need to provide my country with Western weapons," Andriy Khlyvnyuk said.

⚡️UNESCO condemns recent Russian attack on historic center (kyivindependent.com/unesco-condemns-russian-recent-attack-on-historic-center-of-odesa/) of Odesa.

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 25, injure 79 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-6/) over past day.

⚡️ Update: 10 killed, 55 injured (kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-missile-attack/) in Russian missile attack on Odesa. The fatalities included seven police officers, a medic, and two civilian residents. [must have been a double-tap then]
"Russia treacherously aimed a missile at a residential building, an area of business activity," Mayor Hennadii Trukhanov said on Telegram shortly after the attack.

⚡️Russian attack on Sumy Oblast kills 8, (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-sumy-oblast/) injures 11, including children.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson - NOV 19, 2024
■ Engagements below 7-day average, high casualties (1.6k+)
■ Special equipment, artillery & tank losses above average
■ Weekly vehicle losses at a record level
■ Increased 🇷🇺 strikes but strike ratio remains below average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

EU Foreign Ministers failed to reach an agreement on unblocking the European Peace Fund for Ukraine, Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski stated.
According to him, Hungary once again vetoed the decision, despite a mechanism ensuring Hungarian funds would not be directly used to support Ukraine.

The Russian Armed Forces have started using a new type of OFZAB-500 guided aerial bombs against Ukrainian positions.
This was observed in the Kupiansk direction. The bright flash at the beginning is likely the detonation of a sprayed incendiary mixture, designed to burn out defensive positions.

Russia reportedly has around 300 Kh-101-NV cruise missiles in its arsenal, according to sources. Some of these were used during the recent large-scale missile attacks. Intelligence estimates indicate that Russia has the capacity to produce 40-50 of these missiles monthly.

"Our position on the use of weapons by Ukraine has not changed: they can only be used on Ukrainian territory," said Antonio Tajani, the head of the Italian Foreign Ministry, as quoted by Le Monde.

Ukraine has scaled up the serial production of Neptune missiles, now capable of hitting targets at longer distances, Defense Minister Rustem Umyerov announced.
He highlighted progress in missile production:
• 100 missiles have already been produced this year.
• The R-360 Neptune cruise missiles have been upgraded for greater range and are now in serial production.
• Development of new drone missiles, including the “Palianytsia,” is underway.
Ukraine is also collaborating with foreign partners to advance its missile programs.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will join a special session of the European Parliament to commemorate the 1,000th day of Russia’s large-scale war against Ukraine.

Seven people, including a child, were killed as a result of a Russian attack on a dormitory in the city of Hlukhiv, Sumy region, late in the evening on November 18. There may still be people under the rubble https://t.me/United24media/26868

Odessa

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

This morning, two key European undersea communications cables were attacked within hours of each other, leaving one severed and another damaged.
Finland's state-controlled data services provider, Cinia, reported that the C-Lion1 undersea cable connecting Finland and Germany has been severed, disrupting services. The cause is under investigation, with external forces suspected. This incident follows similar damage to a Lithuania-Sweden cable, raising concerns about the security of critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea region.

What’s within range of Ukraine’s ATACMS after Biden’s approval?
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/42441

1,000 days ago, Russia launched its brutal full-scale invasion of Ukraine
Over these 1,000 days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have liberated 42,520 km² of territory and killed 722,440 Russians.
The Ukrainian Air Force has downed 2,753 cruise missiles and destroyed 19,073 drones.
At least 11,743 Ukrainian civilians have been killed and 24,614 injured by Russia, while 67,098 km² of Ukrainian territory has been occupied.

1,000 Days of War – A Timeline of Ukraine’s Triumphs and Tribulations
www.kyivpost.com/post/42412

EU buildings were lit in blue and yellow to mark 1,000 days since Russia’s full-scale invasion, symbolizing solidarity with Ukraine🇺🇦
The projection of Ukraine’s flag colors appeared on key EU institutions: the European Commission, EU Council, and European Parliament.

The Ukrainian flag in Russian-occupied Crimea🇺🇦
Activists from the “Yellow Ribbon” movement raised the blue-and-yellow flag on the highest point of the Baidarska Yaila massif – Mount Ilyas-Kaya. Yet another proof of Ukrainians’ resilience even after 10 years of occupation.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In the occupied part of Zaporizhzhia, Russians have for the first time conscripted local young men for “mandatory military service.”
The occupation authorities have claimed that none of the “recruits” will be sent to combat zones. Instead, they will “serve” in military units located in Crimea, Russia’s Rostov oblast, and Krasnodar Krai.
Additionally, the advisor to the mayor of Mariupol reported that young men from Mariupol and Volnovakha had already been conscripted into the Russian army.

🇪🇺 The European Union has delivered the promised one million artillery shells to Ukraine, announced EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.
In March 2023, EU member states pledged to supply Kyiv with one million shells within a year, by March 2024. However, the deadline was missed due to production delays and concerns over depleting stockpiles.

Trump’s chosen White House National Security Advisor, Florida Congressman Michael Waltz, stated that allowing ATACMS missile strikes on Russian territory leads to escalation.

Europe’s de-escalation tactics is no longer effective and it needs a new strategy to support Ukraine, says Lithuania’s outgoing Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis

🤡The Russian representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzya, accused (united24media.com/latest-news/russias-strange-statement-at-the-un-security-briefing-ahead-of-1000-days-of-russias-full-scale-war-on-ukraine-3819) the UK of staging the Bucha massacre, claiming British special forces and media were involved in placing corpses after Russia’s withdrawal.

🇵🇱🇩🇪 Duda accused Scholz of trying to cut Trump out of talks over the future of Ukraine in a bid to revive Germany’s own relations with Russia, - Bloomberg
The Polish leader said he was “shocked” that President Volodymyr Zelenskiy wasn’t given a seat at the table.
“What the Germans are most afraid of is that Donald Trump will force them to buy gas from America,” Duda said.

Overnight, air defense forces destroyed 51 Russian drones, while another 30 UAVs were lost from radar

Russian Ballet star Vladimir Shklyarov who criticised Putin’s Ukraine invasion dies (www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-shklyarov-death-st-petersburg-ballet-star-fall/) in fall from building in St. Petersburg

Sensible BBC reporting about Putin and his nuclear doctrine. This is literally the boy who cried wolf and the story is relegated somewhere after Strictly results (maybe an exaggeration).

This is good reporting as th rhetoric is simply to instil fear and has been proven again and again empty bluster

I agree I thought it was very sensible. I firmly believe that if Putin wanted to use nuclear weapons he would, doctrine be damned.

Good idea. I am in awe at the resilience of Ukraine.

At the other end of the spectrum is the Daily Mail and it’s declarations of imminent nuclear annihilation 😑 it’s no wonder people end up scared shitless and reluctant to help Ukraine 😡

Yep, agreed.

The DM in particular has lots of previous when it comes to scare stories about nuclear annihilation, for example it has run articles along the lines of “see how big a hole a device of x size would make if dropped on Central London” several times in the last three years.

Either they know some people want to be scared to death and so it’s good for clicks, or the board/owners have certain sympathies.

Fuck me the scaremongering in some other threads is mind blowing 🤯 I’ve heard it all now including that Biden is purposefully starting WW3 so Trump can’t get a peace deal.

Alternatively he sees the very real risk of Trump cutting aid and, unconstrained to a degree now by politics, is doing what he can whilst he can.

You can’t reason with stupid. What’s very interesting, and ever so slightly suspicious, is the fact that all the balanced and rational responses are being ignored and the hysterical statements being repeated over and over…..hmmmmmm

@Igotjelly

Fuck me the scaremongering in some other threads is mind blowing 🤯

Yep, it’s a shame nobody cut the comms/broadband links with Moscow …oh, is that me being cynical?

Blimey, this was quick:

https://ua-stena.info/en/first-atacms-strikes-on-russian-territory-reported/

As I expected, the first strike was on a logistics center, likely an ammunition storage site. No word yet on which ATACMS variant was used. Ukraine likely had some ATACMS in reserve before the policy change and will use them now, knowing that replacements are en route.

Alternatively, he sees the very real risk of Trump cutting aid and, unconstrained to a degree now by politics, is doing what he can whilst he can.

The policy change also gives Trump a bargaining point - he can leave the policy in place or change it if the Russians make a concession.

You have to laugh at the sheer idiocy of some of it, which clearly isn’t couched in reality….like the poster asking if she should get a couple of days of food in! I mean, if that’s all we need to do to, job done!

Are you saying my 300 loo rolls won’t save me 🤨

Afraid so! As long as I have a stash of Marmite and Lindt chocolate I won’t worry too much.

This is a chronic problem for the Russian army, and it goes back decades. All of the data on readiness, training levels, and equipment levels that goes up the chain of command is pure rubbish. And those at the top know it's all rubbish, which means they can't plan properly.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-military-blogger-commanders-arrested-lies-1987546

So the daily mail has a WW3 threat below a story about Amanda Abingdons humiliation on Strictly......weird.

Good article on premium bonds by Martin Lewis though.

Is this the bluff moment and we realise we could have armed Ukraine faster and quicker?