Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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We will see. It will take about two weeks for the ATACMS to reach the front lines if they airlift them to Poland. And it sounds like the decision was made before Biden went to South America, so possibly sooner.

It is extremely unlikely that Putin would use tactical nuclear weapons in response to this. He’s been told that if he does, NATO air forces will enter the war on Ukraine’s side, which would lead to his defeat in fairly short order.

Let’s not forget he was going to use nukes if the west helped Ukraine at all….. and if they provided missile defence…… and if they provided tanks….. and F16s…… or hit Crimea….. or if Ukraine entered Russian territory proper…..

Wait hang on I’m seeing a theme developing…. Didn’t we used to have a tracker of the nuclear threats? Have there since been too many to keep track?

In haste

I really don't think it will lead to nuclear issues.

I'm not sure it will make any difference at all to Putin's approach.

Essentially he's heavily trying to attack the West from within, I think; he wants the Western countries divided among themselves and each country in turmoil within itself. He's doing everything he can to boost that, I personally think.

He's doing this (and succeeding) in Georgia; he's tried hard to do it in Moldova but failed, just (Russia apparently literally offered people money to vote for the Russia-supporting candidate; there's footage of people coming out of the voting stations and asking where to get their payment).

In the long run, he'd like to take over Ukraine and he'd also like to attack the countries that used to be in the Soviet sphere of influence. But he's struggling very badly to build his war machine up as so much has been chewed up in Ukraine. So he's started to use North Korean missiles, armaments and soldiers.

But going nuclear? If he does that he will be in a world of trouble even from the countries that are covertly supporting him, like China. China values stability > all, and nukes will destabilize the political order. Russia is desperately trying to come back from isolation, but using nukes would mean the entire world turns their back other than NK and Iran. He can't afford that - literally. Russia is in increasing financial trouble, and that would make it worse.

He's been pushing the nuclear threat in order to make people panic, as part of his 'hybrid' warfare, to attack us from within.

@Igotjelly The nuclear tracker gave up - far too many and once Musk started strangling the pro-Ukraine accounts, the poor guy's work went to waste.

Not this again.

What's the point of worrying? You can't build a nuclear shelter. Fill the pantry with baked beans or something.

Sorry, but it gets to me when the Ukrainian people suffer daily on an horrendous scale and the only time someone takes notice is when it may affect them .

There's good coverage with more of a military slant on The War Zone website:

Ukraine Now Allowed To Use Long-Range Missiles Deep Into Russia: Reports

Including this on possible targeting options:

“First and foremost it is strategic deterrence conventional weapon in current circumstances,” a former high-ranking Ukrainian officer told us on Sunday. “Secondly, we should be allowed to hit high-priority targets far away from the Ukrainian border. As for now, I would focus not only on military targets but also on military industry objects, gas stations, electrical grids etc. Our strategy will depend on how many and what range ATACMS we get.”

There are two variants of ATACMS, one with a range of approximately 100 miles and another with a range of 190 miles. They are identical in size since both are fired from the same launcher. The longer-range one has more rocket propellant and a smaller payload. Ideally, you'd have some of each and use them according to the distance to the target.

Weapons are a finite commodity. So if you can use the mere threat of them to force the enemy to change their behaviour (such as by pulling assets further back from the frontline) then you get most of the benefit and still have a missile to fire another day.

United24 Media:

🇬🇧 MPs from all parties in Great Britain have urged the government to back Ukraine's demands for a fair peace through diplomatic pressure and military support, according to The Guardian.

“Keir Starmer’s government must provide strong support to Ukraine in the coming months as both sides work to secure their positions before talks. International backing is key to achieving a just peace, protecting Ukraine’s sovereignty, and thwarting Putin’s plans,” stated the inter-party parliamentary group on Ukraine, marking 1,000 days of resistance against Russia's large-scale aggression (November 19).

Alex Sobel, head of the group and Labour MP, stressed that “Britain should support Kyiv’s stance on any concessions and not pressure President Zelensky to meet Russian demands.”
“No other country has the right to negotiate away Ukrainian territory,” he added.

Sarah Green, co-chair of the group and a member of the Liberal Democrats, noted that the upcoming year will be challenging for Ukraine, emphasizing that “Great Britain must offer firm and unwavering support.”

This announcement comes as Jonathan Powell, former chief of staff to Prime Minister Tony Blair and key figure in the Northern Ireland peace talks, has been appointed as the government’s national security adviser. The publication points out that this may signal the British government’s preparation for potential negotiations.

‼️ The Russian Federation has amassed enough missiles for several massive bombardments and continues to build up its stock, according to Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation.

Ukraine is aware of the enemy’s strategy and is prepared.

🔹 Tusk stated that Russia’s latest attack highlighted the ineffectiveness of telephone diplomacy.

The Prime Minister of Poland argued that phone calls cannot replace real support for Ukraine from the West.

“No one will stop Putin with phone calls. Last night’s attack, one of the biggest in this war, proved that phone diplomacy cannot replace real support for Ukraine from the entire West.

The coming weeks will be decisive, not just for the war, but for our future,” Tusk emphasized.

🔻 The White House did not comment on reports about allowing Ukraine to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles, according to Reuters.

The New York Times reported that U.S. officials do not anticipate the use of ATACMS missiles to significantly change the war’s course. The primary aim is to demonstrate to North Korea that its armed forces are vulnerable and should avoid further involvement.

Biden is expected to permit the Ukrainian Armed Forces to use long-range missiles in additional locations.

*❗️ France and Britain allowed Ukraine to hit the territory of the Russian Federation with SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, — Le Figaro
*
UPD. France and Britain have never opposed allowing the use of SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles, but their use without specific maps provided by the USA is irrelevant. Whether Ukraine will be granted access to the necessary data is still to be determined.

🔸 Today, many in the media are discussing the fact that we have received permission to take appropriate actions. But strikes are not made with words. Such matters are not announced. The rockets will speak for themselves, said President Zelenskyy.

🔹 The Russians spent at least 1.2 billion dollars on the 17th Nov. morning attack on Ukraine. This estimate is based on the cost of missiles from publicly available sources.

🇩🇪 “Ukraine can count on many friends in the world, especially Germany,” said Olaf Scholz.

The German chancellor made this statement before heading to the G20 leaders’ summit, where discussions will include Russia’s war against Ukraine.

“It would be an illusion for Putin to think that our support will weaken. This is an important message for the G20 meeting, which I am now on my way to,” Scholz emphasized.

🇲🇩 Moldova has confirmed the violation of its airspace by Russian drones and missiles.

“Explosions near our border and drones flying low over our villages show the risks to our citizens from Russia’s brutal war,” said Moldova’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mihai Popshoi.

A video previously shared by the minister was published by NordNews, indicating it was sent by a resident of Rusena village, Yedinet district. The sender noted that rockets flew at a low altitude, and the sound was captured by CCTV cameras.

🇺🇳🇺🇦 The UN Security Council will hold a high-level meeting ahead of 1,000 days of Russia’s war against Ukraine.

This significant event, initiated by Ukraine and convened by Great Britain, which currently presides over the UN Security Council, aims to draw global attention to Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine, according to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

🇫🇷 “Putin does not want peace. Our duty is to push Russia to stop hostilities,” said French President Emmanuel Macron.

“It is clear that Putin’s intention is to escalate the hostilities, as we have seen in recent weeks. Whatever he says, he does not want peace and is not ready to negotiate. It is our duty to push Russia to end hostilities and negotiate peace based on terms that respect international law. Therefore, we must fulfill our obligations to the Ukrainian people,” Macron stated, according to BFM TV.

The president also expressed his condolences to Ukraine for the loss of life caused by the mass attack on November 17.

Macron suggested that he would talk to Putin when there is an “appropriate context,” but according to him, such a context does not exist at the moment.

🇫🇷 According to the French newspaper Le Figaro, France and Britain joined the US in allowing Ukraine to use SCALP/Storm Shadow long-range missiles to target Russian territory.

However, the publication later revised its report. By Monday morning, it stated: "Debates were already taking place among officials about allowing the use of Western missiles against Russian territory. Macron supported this during a state visit to Germany in May 2024."

Live:Ukraine

🔹 Zelensky: Russia is teaching North Korea modern warfare, which could lead to significant and widespread destabilization. We must work together with all our other partners to counter this.

🇨🇦 Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau supporteded_ Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to directly engage with Putin on Friday, stating that ending the war would require some interaction with the Russian leader*

When asked about Scholz’s call, Trudeau expressed that it was beneficial to maintain an open line of communication with Putin.

He reiterated that Canada remains committed to Ukraine’s victory and wants the conflict to end as soon as possible.

“There may be windows where this could happen in the coming months,” he said, without providing further details.

However, he noted that a resolution of the conflict on Ukraine’s terms would require the support of the U.S., especially with the potential arrival of a Donald Trump administration.
“Let’s be honest: no other allies in the world can replace the full support of the United States for Ukraine,” Trudeau added.

💥 Over the past week, Russia launched nearly 140 missiles of various types, more than 900 guided aviation bombs, and over 600 strike drones

During 17th Nov. attack, F-16 pilots shot down nearly 10 aerial targets.

🇵🇱The coming weeks will be decisive not only for the war itself but also for our future. No one will stop Putin with phone calls, says Polish Prime Minister Tusk

Last night’s attack, one of the largest missiles attack in this war, proved that telephone diplomacy cannot replace real support for Ukraine from the entire West.

🇩🇪 Scholz Defends His Phone Call with Putin After Criticism from Ukraine and Opposition

According to Scholz, it was crucial during the call to make it clear to Putin that “he cannot count on Germany, Europe, and many other countries reducing their support for Ukraine.”

However, he acknowledged that Putin’s stance on the war has not changed.

Scholz presented another argument to justify his call to Moscow: he believes it would be a bad idea for a conversation to take place between the U.S. president-elect and the Kremlin leader without there also being a dialogue between Putin and the head of government of a major European state.

“We will not stop our support. It would be an illusion for Russia to think that Ukraine will not be able to count on our assistance in the future. No decision will be made behind Ukraine’s back,” Scholz stated.

🔸 Russians use deadly “thermobaric” drones alongside decoys – Associated Pressss*_

During large-scale drone attacks against Ukraine, Russian forces have started deploying lethal thermobaric drones alongside numerous decoy drones that contain no explosives.

The strategy involves launching armed drones alongside dozens of decoys, sometimes stuffed with rags or foam, which appear identical to bomb-carrying drones on radar.

This forces Ukrainian forces to make split-second decisions on how to allocate their limited resources to save lives and protect critical infrastructure.

🇰🇵 North Korea May Send 100,000 Troops to Ukraine – Bloombergrg*_

This scenario could unfold if cooperation between Russia and North Korea deepens. However, these would not be troops deployed to the front lines all at once. Instead, they would be sent in “batches,” gradually stationed on the battlefield with rotations.

Meanwhile, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is urging China’s leader to leverage his influence over Russia and North Korea to prevent “further escalation of the war.”

❗️ Ukraine has received U.S. approval to use long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian territory – The New York Timeses*_

This decision comes in response to Russia’s move to deploy North Korean troops in the conflict.

The missiles will likely be used against Russian and North Korean forces to defend Ukrainian troops in the Kursk oblast.

❗️Reuters reportsts_ that the first ATACMS strikes on Russia are expected in the coming days*

The attacks will likely involve ATACMS missiles with a range of up to 306 kilometers.

❗️Volodymyr Zelensky commented on the permission from the US, UK, and France to strike Russian territory with long-range missiles.

“Today, many in the media are talking about us receiving permission for such actions. But strikes are not delivered with words. Such things are not announced. The missiles will speak for themselves,” the president stated.

🇲🇩 Russian drones and missiles enter Moldovan territory during attack on Ukraine

“Explosions near our border and sightings of low-flying drones over villages highlight the risks to our people from Russia’s brutal war,” wrote Moldova’s foreign minister Mikhail Popsoy.

This is not the first incident where the effects of Russian airstrikes on Ukraine have impacted Moldova. On October 16, debris was found in the northern part of the country.

🤡 Trump’s son called the leaders of countries that allowed Ukraine to strike Russia with long-range weapons “imbeciles“

He claimed this decision provokes a Third World War.

🇱🇹🇺🇦 Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda congratulates Ukraine on the decision to allow Ukraine to strike Russian territory with US supplied long-range weapons
*
🇫🇷 The publication Le Figaro, which earlier reported that France and the United Kingdom had authorized Ukraine to strike Russian territory with SCALP/Storm Shadow long-range missiles, has removeded_ this information

“The debate over granting permission for the use of Western missiles against Russian territory had already been raging within the administration. Emmanuel Macron expressed his support for this during a state visit to Germany in May 2024,” the article now states, without any explicit mention of permissions Ukraine allegedly received.

🇩🇪Germany’s Green Party candidate for chancellor, Robert Habeck, has stated that he would approve the delivery of Taurus long-range missiles to Ukraine if elected as head of government, Die Zeit reports.s.*_

“The answer to this question is: yes. However, arms deliveries have always been among the ‘most difficult decisions’ to be made under the responsibility of the government,” he said in a recent interview.

Friedrich Merz, leader of Germany’s Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and a contender for chancellor, also supports providing long-range weapons to Ukraine.

▪️Meanwhile, current Chancellor Olaf Scholz has consistently opposed the transfer of Taurus missiles to Ukraine.

🔸 The number of people injured in missile strikes on Sumy has risen to 89

In addition to the strike on a residential area on November 17, the enemy also targeted Sumy’s critical infrastructure with missiles, likely ballistic ones, leaving the city without electricity.

Efforts to mitigate the aftermath of the Russian attack are ongoing. An operational response center has been set up in the city, and residents are receiving all necessary assistance.

Thank you @DesdamonasHandkerchief , again! :)

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-17-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The New York Times (NYT) and Washington Post reported that US President Joe Biden has authorized Ukrainian forces to use US-provided ATACMS in limited strikes against Russian and North Korean military targets within Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces damaged Ukrainian energy infrastructure during the largest missile and drone strike since August 2024 on the night of November 16 to 17.
• Russian forces continue to innovate their long-range strike packages and likely included relatively ineffective sea-launched Kalibr cruise missiles in the November 16 to 17 strike package as decoys to distract and exhaust Ukrainian air defenses.
• Ukrainian forces struck a defense industrial factory in the Udmurt Republic for the first time on the morning of November 17.
• North Korea reportedly continues to provide military support to Russia, including the provision of rocket and artillery systems and potential additional troop deployments, which is likely to impact Russia's military operations in the short term, but its long-term benefits likely remain limited.
• Russian forces will likely focus on seizing frontline Ukrainian towns and cities during Winter 2024-2025 through urban combat amid efforts to offset Ukrainian drone advantages and possible Russian armored vehicle constraints.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin's maximalist objectives demanding full Ukrainian capitulation remain unchanged, but a prominent Kremlin-affiliated milblogger appears to be trying to repackage longstanding Kremlin territorial claims to southern Ukraine as less severe "peace proposals" that would actually militarily threaten Ukraine, Moldova, and NATO.
• Abkhazian oppositionists continued protests on November 17 calling for the resignation of the de facto Abkhazian President Aslan Bzhania.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Chasiv Yar, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar.
• Russian milbloggers continued to applaud their reported role in removing frontline 3rd Combined Arms Army (CAA, formerly 2nd Luhansk People's Republic Army Corps [LNR AC]) commanders after the commanders submitted false reports about Russian advances in the Siversk direction.

Essentially he's heavily trying to attack the West from within, I think; he wants the Western countries divided among themselves and each country in turmoil within itself. He's doing everything he can to boost that, I personally think.

Can't repeat this too often.

I find it misses the mark when folk talk about whether there will be a "real" war between the UK and Russia. The answer is yes, and it's already started.

And in case anyone thinks the current war is just words, remember the multi-location attacks on the police and fire services and mobs trying to burn people alive in buildings this summer. (Obviously Russia isn't the only body trying to stir the pot: other attackers trying to weaponise the British citizenry are available.)

This is correct; Russia moved aircraft out of range long ago.

Just as importantly, some assets are useless unless they are in close proximity to the battlefield. Those will be the targets.

I think this change may have Russia rethinking its strategy of attacking Ukrainian power stations. Their power infrastructure and oil refining and storage locations will be highly vulnerable to attack by ATACMS and Storm Shadow missiles.

I sincerely hope so @notimagain

This night's attacks on the energy generation facilities seems to have been too successful.

Mind you Putin really doesn't care if his own people go without, does he :/

I’m concerned about the Russian response of using ‘new weapons systems’ in Ukraine. Any thoughts what that could be? For clarity and those panicked at the moment, I’m worried about Putin punishing Ukraine not for myself!

Also seeing some reports of severed undersea cables between Finland and Germany.

Evening all. My Ukrainian friend has said that mobilisation is now on every street, in every town. They are literally stopping vehicles and mobilising all men, even the disabled. So men are leaving the house less often and certainly not leaving their towns. It's somewhat confusing to my friend who says that there are (officially) a million soldiers in the Ukraine army. I wondered whether this could be for rotation purposes. He says no. His army friends have only had 3 ten day holidays in nearly 3 years. Then I wondered if it's because the casualty figures are higher than reported. He thinks this could be the case. It's their darkest hour I would say, as they approach winter, and the uncertainty around Trumps presidency, intense shelling and Putin s renewed threats to use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine.

Yep, Finland<> Germany under water fiber cable severed somehow, also talk that there was a power cut that shut off power to some Norwegian drilling platforms….may or may not have been an accident.

…and of course (?) there was some concern over a Russian vessel (intelligence gatherer) loitering in the Irish Sea a few days back…Mind you they were *** for doing similar in the North Sea in Cold War days, at times positioning themselves quite close offshore so they could intercept stuff carried on the UK microwave comm network

www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/16/russian-spy-ship-escorted-away-from-internet-cables-in-irish-sea

This is so sad. They’ve been talking about a major Russian offensive imminently haven’t they so assuming it might be linked to that too.

Of course all the talk is about tactical nukes, could chemical weapons be more likely?

A cable between Lithuania and Sweden too I believe

@MagicFox

Yes, I thought I’d hit send on this a few minutes back but obviously not..

https://www.lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416006/undersea-cable-between-lithuania-and-sweden-damaged-telia

Although reading about them the cables were within 10m of each other so (if Russia) likely a single vessel rather than many coordinated attacks.

@Igotjelly a recent Ukraine Latest podcast talked about dirty bombs. Is this semantics though?

@Hillsmakeyoustrong John Sweeny said 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers had deserted due to literally lack of ammunition not many weeks ago.

1000 days. How the fuck did we get here 😔