Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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It was through the night, my understanding is it’s now over.

And yes re Poland and Romania’s planes protecting their own and NATO’s territory.

@blueshoes

Sorry been out and missed your question…I don’t know the details but I’d agree with @Igotjelly.

Thanks @Igotjelly and @notimagain

The US have lifted the restrictions on US made weapons striking into Russian territory 💪 💪

JUST ON SKY - BIDEN HAS LIFTED THE US WEAPONS RESTRICTIONS! Sorry to shout but I got quite excited (if that's the right way to say it) about this, feels like we've been waiting for it forever. Thank you Joe.

Biden allows Ukraine to use US arms to strike inside Russia | Reuters

Brilliant! Get as much in before Jan

There may be devil in the details..

According to some sources this may just be limited release (ATACMS only, targets in Kursk oblast only).

If it is that there’s no denying it’s a hell of an improvement, will really help the land campaign but what is really needed to take pressure off the Civpop is the permission and ability to hit really deep targets such as the TU-95 bases which facilitated the bulk of the drone strikes a few hours ago.

By which I mean I assume this also paves the way to a ramping up of delivery?

Do we assume Trump will revoke it as soon as he’s in the White House?

May well be all sorts of devilry in the details indeed.
But I'm thankful for what seems like a release of what has felt like a stubborn sticking point. And I hope it lifts the spirits of Ukrainians and has the opposite effect on Putin. And that it doesn't rile him into retaliation.
Hope is doing a lot of lifting in that paragraph, I know.
Be interesting to see what unfolds in the next few days.
I wonder if Trump will comment. Not to mention Musk, who seems to have opinions on everything and is definitely using X to propagate his ideas. Every single time I open X now a Tweet from Musk is at the top of my feed, and they are all political. He has literally bought his way into power and influence. Dangerous bastard.

You all seem so knowledgeable about this so I'm hoping someone can help reassure me - I've seen this pop up on the news and I'm terrified that this is going to mean war between Russia and all NATO countries like Putin warned and that the nukes are going to start any second 🙈 is this development a good or bad thing?

I imagine so but January is still a few weeks away, a lot could happen.

If we're honest, this should have happened a lot earlier

Putin and his mates have been dropping the word “nuclear” into conversation ever since the this special military operation started to go wrong (day 1?)…they know it gets traction in the west…

I don’t think this US permission changes much TBH, whereas letting Ukraine go under due a lack of western support, would be a very bad thing.

All IMHO….

Agree, we will probably see some sabre rattling but can’t imagine much more than that, although could foresee them making Ukraine suffer for it.

Putin is biding his time until Trump comes in, he won’t do anything that might make Trump turn against him.

Putin is a tyrant. They rule through threats and fear and bullying. Appeasement is never the solution.
Think of feminism - should women creep around out of fear of provoking men, or should they stand up to them? This is the same.

Why announce this before they do it? Now Russia will hide its assets, especially air assets.

I am of course over the moon about this announcement. I agree with @MagicFox that it is not a minute too soon. I hope it is not too little too late.

So one thing with the forthcoming change of administration in the US is it gives them the ability to play Good Cop Bad Cop.

I'm not suggesting that Trump is in any way trustworthy, but he lurrrves pretending he's the hero who saves everyone. That's almost verbatim his schtick.

This gives the Biden administration the opportunity to let rip, while the implicit understanding with Putin is that his pal Trump will come and make nice to him in January.

But in the meantime the US administration doesn't have to hold a steady line. It can really go for it, to put Ukraine in the best possible position for when negotiations have to start.

It's possible our US contributors will put me right on this, but my perception of Biden is that he really doesn't care about showboating, and he really does care about getting shit done (ie the exact converse of Trump). So he'd be perfectly happy to play President Bartlett and let Toby save Social Security without any credit coming to the White House (West Wing fans will know what I mean – er, that's all of us, right?), as long as the job gets done.

I don’t think much in the way of heavy air assets is going to be in range TBH…I do however suspect the new North Korean contingent might be about to get a hammering, as well as fixed transport infrastructure (bridges etc) well back from the front line.

Le Figaro now stating permission to use SCALP/Storm Shadow has also been granted by UK/France (US would have had a say in that due to some of the components in the ordnance).

Still doesn’t give Ukraine a deep strike capability but it all helps.

https://www.lefigaro.fr/international/joe-biden-aurait-donne-son-accord-a-l-ukraine-pour-frapper-la-russie-en-profondeur-avec-des-armes-americaines-20241117

Or what @Igotjelly said more succinctly.

In the highly unlikely event Putin decides to go down the nuclear route, it will be because he WANTS TO, and it will have nothing to do with any supposed provocation from the current status quo.

And two days later Putin will fall out of a window and his minions will be desperately suing for peace.

About fucking time. Some good news for today.

Here's the WSJ's coverage, just published:

Biden Approves Ukraine’s Use of Long-Range Missiles Inside Russia - The introduction of thousands of North Korean troops led to a change in Biden’s calculus

To @notimagain's point, ATACMS won't give the Ukrainians a true deep strike capability, but its 190-mile range puts many high-value targets in range. They'll use them against targets that can't be moved out of range, like headquarters units, logistics, and artillery. You cannot do much if you have no command structure, ammunition, or fire support.

Retaking Kursk will be almost impossible now for Russia if the UAF have a sufficient supply of missiles, and I expect that ATACMS are being surged into Ukraine now. The US Army is getting a steady supply of the replacement JASSM, so there's no reason not to give away the ATACMS.

On a more strategic level, the North Koreans will start taking much higher casualties, which may deter them from reinforcing in large numbers. Gaining combat experience is great, but you don't get much if only the rear-echelon troops come home.

Finally, I have something substantial to comment on. 😁

@MissConductUS

I expect that ATACMS are being surged into Ukraine now. The US Army is getting a steady supply of the replacement JASSM, so there's no reason not to give away the ATACMS.

I hope so, because it’s possible SCALP is in short supply. A handful of days back the French government announced it was sending 10 (yes ten) more SCALP missiles to Ukraine…looks like the French are perhaps looking at protecting stock levels, UK are probably doing similar.

That rather begs the question how many SCALP do Ukraine actually still have available in the locker take advantage of these new permissions.