Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

As of now, Trump has not finalized his strategy for ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, all plans from his advisors include elements of freezing the conflict.

🇱🇻Latvia is considering implementing mandatory military service for women starting in 2028
Defense Minister Andris Spruds supports (www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/05.11.2024-ministrs-spruds-sievietes-obligati-iesaukt-aizsardzibas-dienesta-varetu-2028-gada.a575353/) this initiative, noting improved public attitudes toward gender equality within the National Armed Forces. He emphasized the need to adapt military equipment and uniforms to accommodate female recruits.
In February 2024, Latvia introduced compulsory conscription for men aged 18 to 27, amid concerns over potential Russian aggression in Europe.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

⚡️Ukraine may have targeted Iranian weapon supply routes (kyivindependent.com/dagestan-supply-routes/) in Dagestan strike, media suggests.
Although the precise consequences of the Ukrainian attack are difficult to establish, the recent strike is still "significant in several ways," the War Zone's experts said.

⚡️South Korea 'not ruling out' supplying arms (kyivindependent.com/south-korea-not-ruling-out-supplying-arms-to-ukraine/) to Ukraine, president says.
South Korea does not rule out providing arms to Ukraine in the light of deepening cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said at a press conference on Nov. 7.
"Now, depending on the level of North Korean involvement, we will gradually adjust our support strategy in phases," Yoon told the media.
"This means we are not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons."

⚡️ UK targets Russian-backed mercenaries, defense industry in major sanctions package. (kyivindependent.com/uk-targets-russian-mercenaries-in-major-sanctions-package/)
The U.K. government on Nov. 7 announced its largest package of sanctions against Russia since May 2023, focusing on the Russian defense industry and mercenary groups.
The new 56 listings include the Moscow-backed mercenary group Africa Corps, private companies linked to the Wagner Group, and suppliers feeding Russia's war through arms and dual-use goods.

5 Ukraine stories you might've missed (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-news-you-missed-during-us-election/) because of US election

Opinion piece from Iain Martin in todays Times:

Stand by for the West’s betrayal of Ukraine

There is little sign Europe is ready to step up and arm Kyiv if Trump follows through on the logic of his campaign vow

The Poles know all about bearing the costs of a historic betrayal. When in February 1945 at the Yalta conference the “Big Three Powers” met to carve up postwar Europe, Poland was abandoned to Stalin. And even though Britain had gone to war in defence of Poland, the eastern European country was allowed to become a Soviet satellite state.
In protest at Churchill’s role in the treatment of Poland, a Conservative MP resigned his seat. And although the soon-to-be outgoing prime minister tried to put together a plan to help the brave people of that war-ravaged and occupied nation, it was no use because Stalin was in possession. Outside Poland, the swallowing up of a free country by a tyrant and our powerlessness to help became one of those embarrassing chapters of mid-20th-century realpolitik best skipped over or forgotten. The proud Poles never forgot, though.
Now, with Donald Trump returning to power after his blowout win, another classic sell-out on the European continent looks to be on the way. This time it is the turn of the brave Ukrainianss_ to be sacrificed on the altar of transatlantic convenience and forced into accepting Moscow’s theft of its territory.
Indeed, one of Trump’s clearest and most consistent promises on the campaign trail has been a pledge to end the war in Ukrainee_ “in 24 hours”. The only conceivable way in which this could be done quickly is for Trump to demand a ceasefire and force a deal dividing Ukraine, while imposing conditions on what the Ukrainians can and cannot do to arm themselves in the event of further attacks later. Congress is not going to be in a mood to send any more aid either.
The incoming president has a friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin and it is likely the Russian leader will welcome an attempt to freeze the conflict, allowing him to claim that his special military operation was a success because it secured territory and neutered Kyiv.
The Kremlin has cautiously welcomed Trump’s defeat of Harris, saying it could open the way to a “reset” of relations, which shows someone in the Kremlin has a sense of humour. Hillary Clinton as secretary of state infamously tried to “reset” relations with Russia, and look what happened to her.
Russia’s former president Dmitri Medvedev was almost gleeful and said the return of Trump would be very bad for Ukraine: “Trump has one quality that is useful for us: as a businessman to the core, he mortally dislikes spending money on various hangers-on and freeloaders — on idiotic allies, on bad charity projects and on gluttonous international organisations.”
In his victory speech, Trump made clear that his new administration would keep the promises it has made. And considering his personality, and the scale of his mandate, he is not going to mess about with too much diplomatic politesse. His pitch to American voters is that he and they have had enough of foreign entanglements, and Ukraine must be settled quickly.
We should be in no doubt what such a “peace deal” means, however. It means surrender to Russia and the rewarding of aggression. Not only would it amount to a betrayal of the Ukrainians who have sacrificed so much already, it also sends the worst signal to Putinn_ or a future Russian leader. Special operations to menace eastern and northern Europe, either militarily or through hybrid warfare and sabotage, produce positive results — for the Kremlin.
Of course, there are scenarios in which Trump pursues a less Putin-friendly policy. Several noted historians and foreign policy experts have floated the notion that he will appoint robust individuals “grown-ups” who will persuade him not to surrender to Russia. It is a theory I have heard echoed by British officials.
In this telling, Mike Pompeo, the former CIA director and secretary of state, becomes defence secretary, persuades Trump not to appease Putin so easily to avoid sending a signal of American weakness to other autocrats. If Putin rejects the terms of a peace deal demanding influence or effective political control in the parts of Ukraine that are not under Russian control perhaps the US could even decide to go all in on helping Kyiv.
Perhaps, perhaps, perhaps… and with Trump anything is possible. But from the perspective of Ukraine it sounds like wishful thinking.
Robert O’Brien, who left the White House in 2021 as Trump’s last national security adviser, is now the most likely secretary of state. He explained the Trump doctrine in the summer as being about “peace through strength”, building up the US military to deter what he regards as America’s main adversary, China. Yet he also envisages Ukraine being forced into conceding.
When it became clear earlier this year that Trump would definitely secure his party’s nomination, there was some flirting in Europe with the thought that the continent must step up and take over the funding and support for Ukraine when the US abandons Zelensky and his people. Those of us who suggested this did so on the basis it should surely be feasible for a continent of 500 million souls, with an economy ten times the size of Russia’s, to find the money and also to strengthen the European pillar of Nato. Beyond some statements since Trump’s victory about European solidarity, there is no meaningful sign of it.
I hope I am wrong. I hope Europe, including the UK, steps up properly for Ukraine and commits to spending at least 3 per cent of GDP on rebuilding our own defences. As it stands, what seems more likely is that we will wring our hands while Ukraine is forced to endure ritual humiliation.

I think "ritual humiliation" is a massive understatement of the horror they will have to endure unless we do step up.

Yeah quite an understatement. I really hope Europe steps up, certainly the Northern and Eastern parts are willing but we need the rest as well.

The Russian GPS jamming in Eastern Finland has gotten so bad airlines have had to switch to old radio navigation. Russia is still denying they're doing it though.

I'm seeing hints at an 800mile demilitarised zone in Ukraine being at the centre of Trump's plan, with the potential for it to be policed by British and European troops. It seems to be coming from Trump friendly media which to be honest I'd expect at this point to be more linked into the campaign and to Trump staffers than the more centrist media so am inclined to see it as genuine 'leaks'.

What do we think of this?

So no to NATO involvement, (and all that involves) but Brit and European troops in some mythical buffer zone ?????

Can’t see that being sanctioned for one minute.

Sounds like a job for the UN (UNFUKE or similar) using troops from outside the NATO countries or the BRICS to avoid bias…I’m sure that would work perfectly 😱

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlight

⚡️NATO chief Rutte wants to discuss Russia-North Korea threat (kyivindependent.com/rutte-wants-to-discuss-with-trump-russia-north-korea-threat/) with Trump.

⚡️Ukraine to receive $6 billion (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-6-billion-in-us-military-aid-before-trumps-term-begins-pentagon-confirms/) in US military aid before Trump's term begins, Pentagon confirms.

Germany will be able to provide most of the 4 billion euros ($4.3 billion) promised to Ukraine, even if the 2025 budget is not approved in time due to the coalition collapse, Reuters reported on Nov. 7, citing unnamed sources from the budget committee. https://kyivindependent.com/german-aid-for-ukraine-in-2025-safe-despite-coallition-collapse-reuters-reports/

⚡️No Azeri gas deal currently on table to maintain flows (kyivindependent.com/naftogaz-ceo-no-deal-on-the-table-once-russian-gas-transit-end/) via Ukraine, Naftogaz CEO says.

⚡️World's largest business organization cuts arbitration costs (kyivindependent.com/worlds-largest-business-organization-cuts-arbitration-costs-to-boost-foreign-investment-in-ukraines-reconstruction/) to boost foreign investment in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), will lower the costs of its arbitration court for foreign investors involved in Ukraine's reconstruction projects to encourage much-needed investment.

⚡️ World Bank announces $750 million (kyivindependent.com/world-bank-announces-750-million-support-package-for-ukraine/) support package for Ukraine.

⚡️Google removed (kyivindependent.com/google-removed-photos-of-ukraines-military-sites-from-its-map-ukrainian-official-says/) photos of Ukraine's military sites from its map, Andrii Kovalenko, head of the Counter-Disinformation Center under Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, on Nov. 7.

⚡️Ukraine expected to reopen (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-reopen-one-airport-by-end-of-january-2025/) one airport by end of January 2025.
One of Ukraine's two airports, Lviv or Boryspil near Kyiv, will resume operations by the end of January 2025, Marsh McLennan Senior Partner Crispin Ellison said at the Kyiv International Economic Forum on Nov. 7.

⚡️Zelensky's office deputy head traveled (https://kyivindependent.com/controversial-zelenskys-office-deputy-chief-reportedly-traveled-to-russia-at-least-9-times-after-2014/) to Russia at least 9 times after 2014, media investigation shows.

⚡️Scholz fired finance minister over Taurus missiles proposal (kyivindependent.com/scholz-fired-finance-minister-over-taurus-missiles-proposal-ex-fm-says/), ex-FM says.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz fired former Finance Minister Christian Lindner after he proposed sending Ukraine Taurus missiles instead of financial aid, Lindner said on Nov. 7.

⚡️Russia launches missile attack (kyivindependent.com/russia-ramps-up-aerial-attacks-on-kyiv-targets-capital-with-missile-for-1st-time-since-early-september/) on Kyiv for first time since early October.

⚡️Russian city of Saratov targeted by Ukrainian drone, local official claims, oil refinery (kyivindependent.com/russian-authorities-claim-city-of-saratov-targeted-by-drone/) reportedly hit.

⚡️Estonia to provide (kyivindependent.com/estonia-to-provide-ukraine-with-air-defense-missiles-for-testing/) Ukraine with air defense missiles for testing.
The Estonian arms company Frankenburg Technologies will transfer air defense missiles to Ukraine for testing, Ukraine's Defense Ministry announced on Nov. 8.
The missiles to be trialed by Ukraine are designed to counter drones, and can shoot down targets at an altitude of up to 2 kilometers.

⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 13 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-13-injure-89-over-past-day/), injure 89 over past day.

⚡️Update: Russian mass airstrike on Zaporizhzhia kills 10, injures over 40
Russia struck Zaporizhzhia five times using guided aerial bombs. The attack partially destroyed an apartment building, houses and damaged a cancer hospital, according to authorities.
(https://kyivindependent.com/zaporizhzhia-hospital-strike/)
A 1-year-old child was among the victims who were killed.

⚡️UPDATED: Russian attack on Kharkiv injures 25 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-kharkiv-injures-at-least-16/).

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - NOV 8, 2024
■ 6th highest daily casualties & equipment losses well above 7-day average
■ 2nd highest drone losses
■ Increase in 🇷🇺 strikes

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

At the European Political Community summit in Budapest, nearly 40 EU leaders called on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump to continue supporting Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia, as reported by Reuters. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen emphasized the shared interest in signaling to global autocrats that the rule of law is paramount.
Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo raised concerns about the potential for a trade war and stressed the importance of influencing U.S. policy to avert such a scenario.
Roberta Metsola, President of the European Parliament, highlighted the importance of a robust Germany for Europe’s strength, noting the current political challenges faced by the country due to the collapse of its ruling coalition.

US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet during the G20 summit in Brazil, scheduled from November 17 to 21, as confirmed by the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Additionally, Biden is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with Brazilian President Lula da Silva in Rio de Janeiro.

Britain has introduced a new set of sanctions targeting Russia, as reported by Reuters. [reported yesterday BUT ... ] The sanctions extend to companies identified by European intelligence as participants in efforts by the Kremlin to establish covert production operations in China.

Yuriy Ignat, head of the public relations service of the Air Force Command of Ukraine, stated that nearly half of the drones launched by Russia are decoy drones. These drones include a 3D-printed bullet wrapped in foil to mimic the warhead of "Shahed" drones. Their purpose is to overload and confuse Ukrainian air defense, which may target these fakes instead of drones with actual lethal warheads.

❗️Representatives of the Russian occupation administration in Crimea were invited to the World Forum of Cities in Egypt, supported by the UN Program on Human Settlements (UN-Habitat). The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry condemned this as an "outrageous violation of international law," citing the UN resolution on Ukraine's territorial integrity.
The ministry criticized Russia's use of international events and foreign venues, such as Egypt, to try to legitimize its illegal occupation of Ukrainian territories, which escalates tensions, especially in bilateral relations. Ukraine expressed dissatisfaction with UN-Habitat's failure to enforce strict registration controls, which allowed participation by those representing the occupation.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Zelensky’s speech was excluded from the official broadcast of the summit in Budapest
In the official program, Zelensky was scheduled to speak second, following Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and before French President Macron.
The speeches of Orbán and Macron were broadcast and posted online separately, but the Ukrainian president’s speech was neither broadcast nor published by the organizers, according to Radio Svoboda (https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/news-vystup-zelenskoho-v-budapeshti-ne-pokazaly/33192272.html).

The U.S. will support (www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-november-7-2024/) negotiations between Ukraine and Russia if Zelensky is ready for them.
Matthew Miller, U.S. State Department Spokesperson emphasized that the U.S. will support Zelensky in any process “aimed at achieving a just and lasting peace, but ultimately, it’s his decision.”
Miller also expressed confidence that Putin would agree to negotiations only if he “gets everything he wants, while Ukraine receives none of what it is legally entitled to.”

Putin congratulated Trump on his election victory and expressed readiness for contact and discussions

🇺🇦🇭🇺A bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Hungary has not been signed due to NATO-related issues.

Around 8 million people in Ukraine are neither working nor seeking employment, according to the Ministry of Economy
Among the economically inactive population are people with disabilities, veterans who haven’t found their place in the job market, and women who struggle to balance family and work responsibilities.
Deputy Minister of Economy Tetiana Berezhna stated that reintegrating these individuals into the labor market is one of the government’s top priorities.
▪️The shortage of workers is currently a key obstacle to doing business in Ukraine, with 61% of companies reporting this issue.

Russian Army Major General Pavel Klimenko, who commanded the 5th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, was killed in Ukraine
The death of 47-year-old Klymenko was first reported by the Russsian pro-war bloggers.
The Russian online media Vazhnye Istorii managed to confirm (t.me/istories_media/8069) the identities of his sisters, who commented on Klimenko’s death on social media.
The General’s sister, Kateryna Klymenko, also confirmed (t.me/astrapress/67991) in a conversation with Russian media ASTRA that he had died.
Klymenko was accused of organizing torture and collecting money from his subordinates for sending them to the rear.
The circumstances of his death are unknown.
According to ASTRA’s investigation, Klymenko organized the torture of Russian military servicemen on the territory of an abandoned mine in occupied Donetsk. [nice chap, eh?]

Zelensky: There are $300 billion worth of frozen Russian assets. Russia has already caused more than $800 billion worth of damage in Ukraine. Can we take the $300 billion that belongs to us? Can we decide for ourselves what type of weapons we need?

Ukraine has recovered the bodies of 563 fallen soldiers
Some of the deceased were returned from the Donetsk and Bakhmut fronts, while the bodies of 154 soldiers were retrieved from Russian morgues.

Top countries in terms of actual aid provided to Ukraine.
A more detailed infographic continues the previously published one with a breakdown by type of aid to Ukraine.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Germany is set to reintroduce national service to boost defense capabilities and build a strong reserve. New legislation, approved by the Cabinet, will be debated in the Bundesrat and Bundestag early next year.
Service periods will be for 6-23 months.

A massive fire broke out at an oil refinery in the Russian city of Saratov following a drone attack last night.
The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed to have downed a total of 17 drones, though the exact details remain unclear.

In effort to increase civilian casualties during their nightly drone attacks on the residentusl areas of Ukraine's cities, Russia has begun to arm their Shahed drones with thermobaric warheads which pose a much greater threat when attacking indoor environments.
Upon detonation, the thermobaric mixture, forms a fire cloud with a temperature of 2400-2600°C that spreads over the entire area and creates a shock wave that burns the lungs, olfactory senses and internal organs.
While Ukraine's allies restrict the striking of Russian targets, Russia is committing open genocide.

Ukraine’s former ambassador to the UK, Vadym Prystayko says that the next three months will be "horrible" as Russia will now try to kill Ukraine's leaders to decapitate the state.
He also added that Russia will resume efforts large scale efforts to destroy Ukraine’s energy infrastructure amid freezing winter temperatures.

The collapse of "Samolet", the largest construction company in Russia continues, now down another 9%, rippling out to the larger Russian equity market.
Russian media reports that the company's shareholders claim executives are liquidating the firm's remaining assets to their own accounts in China and Tajikistan.

Great article @DesdamonasHandkerchief
I don’t know how Ukraine are dealing with the uncertainty but I’m struggling with now having two world leaders to despise.

Only 2?

Well, 2 main ones. Plenty more I’m not a fan of but frightening that 2 of the biggest are so unscrupulous.

The Ukrainecast podcast is repeating an interview they did with Mike Pompeo back in May, and Ukraine is discussed at length. Pompeo, a West Point grad and former US Army officer, has been involved in Trump's campaign and is considered a top pick to be the next Secretary of Defense.

If you take Pompeo at his word in this interview, it's not so bad for Ukraine.

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mike-pompeo-revisited-how-could-trump-end-the-war-in-24-hours/id1611568441?i=1000676208421

Funny they discussed Pompeo on another podcast, which I now can’t remember, and I did think at least he has even a vague idea of what he’s doing which is more than can be said for some of Trump’s likely picks.

I would be fine with Pompeo as the next SecDef. He has a very clear eyed view of Russia and wants Ukraine to win, however that looks in the end. He also opposes restrictions on the use of American supplied weapons and faults the Biden administration for being paralyzed by fear of escalation by Russia.

Thought Ben Hodges was v interesting on this podcast too: podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/bfbs-radio-sitrep/id314959811?i=1000676090730

The Trump transition team is leaking details of what his idea of a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia might look like. Pompeo is taking a harder line than the likely Secretary of State, and the core of it is freezing the current lines and creating a DMV with European troops.

Trump Promised to End the War in Ukraine. Now He Must Decide How. - Foreign-policy advisers close to the president-elect put forth different versions of a plan to effectively freeze the front line

After this week’s developments, I don’t see any way that this ends without Russia keeping a chunk of Ukraine. I feel so sad about it, and so deflated.

Same. It's depressing and worrying.

Me too. Just bereft for Ukraine. They fought so hard.

@MissConductUS I hope it is Pompeo.

I can only hope this is the wake up call to Europe to step up. We are going to face a re-grouped Russia soon. Yeah, Europe should have done that years ago.

Sorry to lower the tone. You know I am clutching at straws to link to Boris Johnson in the Daily Mail - why what matters isn't what Trump says but what he actually does.

https://archive.is/P117a#selection-2313.0-2313.217

So you don't have to click into the link. Similar to what Pompeo alluded to, he praised Trump's willingness to be strong and project strength. Boris also says Trump's competitive character won't allow himself to be bested by Putin. He won't betray Ukraine (but does not say anything about ceding territory) and Europe should not free ride.

I wouldn’t underestimate Boris’ good relationship with both Ukraine and Trump. I loathe the man but he might have his uses….

Here's hoping @Igotjelly