Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-7-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is attempting to shape US President-elect Donald Trump's foreign policy and achieve another Russia–US reset on Russia's terms.
• A recent failed Russian assault northeast of Siversk near Bilohorivka prompted outrage from some Russian ultranationalist milbloggers over Russian command failures and the pervasive Russian military culture of exaggerating battlefield successes.
• A Russian brigade commander and a sniper platoon commander were reported killed in combat recently in the Kurakhove and Chasiv Yar directions.
• Ukrainian authorities continue to report systematic Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs), noting a clear increase in such executions in 2024.
• Ukrainian strikes on Russia and Western sanctions are reportedly disrupting Russia's energy industry.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
• Russian authorities are reportedly creating "fake" non-combat volunteer battalions in occupied Ukraine and merging them with existing Cossack organizations led by occupation administrations.

I watched Putins speech in Kazan a couple of weeks ago. He was adamant there would be no freezing of the conflict, as that would simply be a pause for Ukraine to rearm and reset to continue the conflict at a later date.
At the moment, given the way the conflict is unfolding, it's hard to see why Russia would give up the initiative?

Very clear eyed interview with Benjamin Tallis on Silicon curtain this morning : podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/silicon-curtain/id1661722315?i=1000676230152

I took the kids to a firework display last night and all I could think about was children in Ukraine. It felt like a gross parallel, like it meant something else - i basically found it horrifying, it was all I could see

You're right @Golden407

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️EU officials explore (kyivindependent.com/eu-officials-explore-options-for-supporting-ukraine-if-trump-halts-aid-bloomberg-reports/) options for supporting Ukraine if Trump halts aid, Bloomberg reports.

⚡️EU top diplomat Borrell arrives (kyivindependent.com/eu-top-diplomat-borrell-arrives-in-kyiv/) in Kyiv.
The European Union's chief diplomat, Josep Borrell, arrived in Kyiv on Nov. 9 for his fifth trip to Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

⚡️Elon Musk joined (kyivindependent.com/elon-musk-joined-recent-zelensky-trump-call-axios-reports/) recent Zelensky-Trump call, Axios reports.
Business tycoon Elon Musk was on the line during a recent phone call between President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, Axios reported on Nov. 8, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

Russian drone strikes surge, passing air defenses even into downtown Kyiv (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-drone-strikes-surge-passing-air-defenses-even-into-downtown-kyiv/)

⚡️US allows deploying its military contractors (kyivindependent.com/us-allows-lifts-ban-on-contractors-inside-ukraine-to-fix-u-s-supplied-weapons/) to Ukraine, Reuters reports.
The "small numbers" of contractors will not participate in combat operations and will be stationed in far from the front line, one of the unnamed American officials told Reuters.

⚡️Russian army used chemical weapons 323 times (kyivindependent.com/russian-army-uses-chemical-weapons-323-times-in-october-general-staff-says/) in October, Ukraine's General Staff says.
The Russian army uses munitions such as K-51 and RG-VO, which are loaded with hazardous chemicals that are used for counter-riot operations and are prohibited as weapons of war, the General Staff's report read.

⚡️Guardian: Frustration grows (kyivindependent.com/guardian-frustration-grows-in-ukraine-over-delayed-uk-missile-supplies/) in Ukraine over delayed UK missile supplies.
Kyiv expressed frustration over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s reluctance to supply additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles, the Guardian reported on Nov. 8.

⚡️Ukrainian, Russian ombudsmen meet (kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-russian-ombudsmen-meet-in-belarus-to-address-humanitarian-issues-amid-war/) in Belarus to address humanitarian issues amid war.
"I emphasize that I interacted with the Russian ombudsman to resolve humanitarian issues, return Ukrainians home, and obtain information about our citizens in Russia," Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets said.

⚡️Ukraine breaks (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-breaks-air-service-agreement-with-iran/) air service agreement with Iran.
The Ukrainian government decided to terminate the agreement on air service with Iran, Taras Melnychuk, the government's representative in parliament, announced on Nov. 8.

⚡️Lviv-born pediatrician living in Russia may face (kyivindependent.com/lviv-born-pediatrician-living-in-russia-may-face-6-year-prison-sentence-after-criticizing-war/) 6-year prison sentence after criticizing war.

⚡️Russian court sentences 2 soldiers to life in prison (kyivindependent.com/russian-court-sentences-2-soldiers-to-life-in-prison-for-killing-entire-ukrainian-family/) for killing entire Ukrainian family.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪ - NOV 9, 2024
■ 5th highest daily casualties, combat engagements slightly above 7-day average
■ APV & vehicle losses above average, 3 missiles intercepted
■ 🇷🇺 strikes above average, 🇺🇦 ones below it

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

In Kyiv on November 7, an enemy UAV struck a high-rise building where the Estonian ambassador to Ukraine resides, as reported by the Estonian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The ambassador was unharmed.

Russian forces have started using new Grom-E1 guided bombs, which have a range of up to approximately 120 kilometers due to a built-in rocket engine, according to The Telegraph and analyst David Axe. This advancement allows Su-30 and Su-34 fighter jets to carry out strikes while remaining outside the reach of most Ukrainian air defenses, including F-16s equipped with AMRAAM missiles. The Grom-E1 bombs have been deployed against civilian targets, such as a school and buildings in Myrnohrad, Kherson, and Kharkiv.
Despite limited production and stockpiles of these munitions, their use poses significant threats to Ukrainians. In response, Ukraine has conducted counterstrikes with French Hammer bombs, local equivalents, and American JSOWs. However, these weapons' shorter range of around 64 kilometers exposes Ukrainian aircraft to Russian S-300 and S-400 systems, as well as Su-30 jets armed with R-77 missiles.

NATO has condemned the direct involvement of North Korean troops in the war against Ukraine.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has emphasized that he has never attempted to dictate Ukraine's actions in its war with Russia, but is willing to offer help as a good neighbor. He acknowledged Ukraine's sovereignty, stating that the decisions Ukraine makes, including whether to continue fighting, are entirely up to the Ukrainian people. Orbán praised Ukraine's heroic resistance, reinforcing that it is for Ukrainians to decide their course of action in the conflict. [wtf?]

One person was killed and 13 others were injured, including two children aged 4 and 16, during a night attack by the Russian Federation on Odesa and its suburbs on November 9.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Josep Borrell has arrived in Ukraine for the last time in his role as EU foreign policy chief.
This is Borrell’s fifth visit since the start of the full-scale invasion.

Putin stated that Russia will not return to the path it was on before 2022, as it was directed toward intervention and the subjugation of other countries.

🇬🇧 The Ukrainian side believes that relations with the United Kingdom have worsened since the Labour government, led by Keir Starmer, came to power following the July 2024 elections.
According to the publication, Ukraine’s main grievance is that, since Labour took office, the UK has not provided any additional long-range Storm Shadow missiles.

Major General of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Dmytro Marchenko, who led the defense of Mykolaiv in 2022, has announced his discharge from service due to health reasons.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Having already been viewed over 30,000,000 times on social media platform X, another large-scale Russian disinformation campaign targeting U.S. audiences is being widely circulated with a staged video of “Ukrainian soldiers” shooting and burning a mannequin in a MAGA hat.
The video aims to sow division between Trump supporters and Ukraine with efforts aimed at reducing US support.
Ukraine's Centre for Strategic Information issued this warning today.

The people of Odesa waking today to devastation after Russians sent drones equipped with thermobaric warheads onto apartment buildings all over the city.

IKEA Owner Sells Last Asset in Russia
www.kyivpost.com/post/41925

Orban Paves the Way in Europe for Trump’s Plan to Appease Putin on Ukraine
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41947

Not directly related to Ukraine, but I think this is an adjacent piece of the jigsaw to the targetting @DucklingSwimmingInstructress experienced through social media. (Sorry, I'm not searching back to find exactly what it was, but IIRC they tried to lure you into various sites to give away more of your personal data, perhaps your address and other info, and to potentially influence you?)

Anyway. Today's story.

'I gave my DNA to a testing company - then it vanished'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz7wl7rpndjo

Atlas BioMed collected DNA and questionnaires of additional information from people, supposedly to offer DNA testing "to provide insights into people's genetic make up as well as their predisposition to certain illnesses". The company has now disappeared into the ether, taking all the data with it.

This is a shoe I have been waiting to drop since the genealogy companies started DNA testing and family tree matches a few years ago. You get your DNA results... and so does the company, with a list of things it intends to do with it and permission to pass your data on to whatever other organisation it likes.

For example, Ancestry.com started a branch called Ancestry Health, whose T&Cs included using your DNA to combine with health information acquired from you and other people, to predict likely health issues. Not done within the confines of an ethical, privacy-aware health setting, but as a free-for-all with the same data collection and processing ethos as Facebook. (Ancestry Health has now been discontinued, but the other companies are still at it.) Because of the fact that many Ancestry customers also upload their family tree, this means that if your aunty on the other side of the world gives Ancestry their DNA and their (your) tree, Ancestry now has genetic information about you personally.

But the really sinister bit lurking within the Ancestry T&Cs was that not only would they process this Big Data for health traits, but for behavioural traits.

Very close parallel to Cambridge Analytica using Facebook social data to build models which would predict behaviour, and thus what would work best to manipulate people. But with DNA, so affecting more than the individual who chose to share their data.
Revealed: 50 million Facebook profiles harvested for Cambridge Analytica in major data breach.
Whistleblower describes how firm linked to former Trump adviser Steve Bannon compiled user data to target American voters
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/mar/17/cambridge-analytica-facebook-influence-us-election

So when I saw this morning's headline about Atlas Biomed, I was completely unsurprised at what followed:
Atlas Biomed's UK address was just a company in London which offers accommodation addresses. Companies House shows that one of Atlas Biomed's directors was a Russian billionaire, and the two remaining officers are listed at an address in Moscow.

Jesus, it just gets more and more sinister doesn't it?

Yes, people did try to target me and I'm only small fry on Twitter. Though come to think of it, big fish probably get so much of it that they just realise what's going on sooner.

My partner, who works in IT security, says they try to get you to download apps and then have ways to find the small gaps in Whatsapp and other chat programs, so they can harvest a lot of data about you and your contacts. Mind you, they could have just been lovely young ladies interested in my (non-existent) penis perhaps :D

The genetic testing companies are several levels above that though. Really terrifying.

Thanks for the details about the way you were targetted, Ducks. So unpleasant and disturbing.

It's all about grabbing the whole information-space, isn't it? Nothing is too obscure if it offers a useful foothold.

The Russians (and I'm sure many other actors) aren't thinking in silos and they are extremely agile in the information sector.

I've been watching the exponential development of the Big Data industry – "the new oil" as it's often called – and wondering just how bad it would be when the shit properly hit the fan.

I think it's going to be a slow (but not that slow) change into a situation similar to most of history; a few elites, some skilled middle-classes and a huge majority of powerless people; men will increase the gap in equality between males and females further.

The most drastic game changer may be climate change; from what I've read, increasing inflexibility in society plus a few other elements create a society which has a lessened ability to respond quickly and effectively to serious internal or particularly external stressors. The society remains static, but climate change can destabilize it in a way that only external invasion can otherwise do.

This will get interesting in a generation or three.

The other thing that worries me sick is the biological warfare developments and capacities. Russia has been expanding its biological warfare programme in no small way.

Republican strategist Bryan Lanza unveils what will be the Trump messaging strategy on Ukraine: to blame the Dems for not giving enough support to Ukraine. Despite the Republicans having spent the last 2 years criticising Dems for giving too much, and indeed getting faux indignant about their own strawman claims about troops.

It will allow them to drop Ukraine like a hot cake while blaming the previous administration, because they can rest it on a kernal of truth: if Biden had given more and without restrictions, then (at the risk of escalation) Ukraine's counter-offensive might have gone better.

I'm sorry, I can't remember the full analysis on this, but have I remembered correctly that had it been a Trump administration for the last 4 years, he wouldn't have lifted a finger to help Ukraine?

Other messaging I have been picking up for a while suggests that another part of Putin's strategy is to try to divert anger onto anyone involved in resisting his invasion: they're the warmongers responsible for all the dead, not him, not his troops who murder and torture civilians, etc.

I'm expecting a deluge of this now, backed up by Trump-administration messaging: "We've drawn a carve-up of your country for you: if you don't accept it, you're the warmonger."

This is where, when Trump tries to tell Zelensky to give up part of Ukraine, he should be confident in the support of Europe to tell Trump to go to hell.

I don't think Zelensky can currently be confident of that support, and that is outrageous. European leaders are failing here, and need to act fast to pull the world back from the horror we are falling into. How many of them are strong enough to say "No"?

@DucklingSwimmingInstructress how alarming that you were targeted on twitter. Hope you are ok. Things are moving so quickly and threats moving closer to home. I fear for our dcs.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-8-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be assuming that US President-elect Donald Trump will defer to the Kremlin's interests and preferences without the Kremlin offering any concessions or benefits in return.
• Putin's proposed "new world order" emphasizes an interconnected international system without great powers or security blocs, but the Kremlin's actions contradict and undermine his proposed ideals and principles.
• Putin also acknowledged that Russia is dealing with a serious labor shortage and is largely reliant on migrants to address it.
• Putin doubled down on an existing information operation falsely claiming that Ukraine violated its neutral status in an attempt to justify Russia's illegal and unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
• Putin notably attempted to downplay Russia's burgeoning relationship with North Korea during his November 7 Valdai Club statements, likely in an effort to maintain some semblance of a relationship with South Korea and discourage South Korean support for Ukraine.
• The Kremlin continues to build its relationship with Venezuela as a means of consolidating and expanding its influence in the Western hemisphere.
• The Ukrainian General Staff reported on November 8 that Ukrainian forces recorded 323 cases of Russian forces using ammunition equipped with chemical agents banned by the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) in October 2024 alone. @DucklingSwimmingInstructress
• Ukrainian forces recently advanced in northern Novoivanovka, Kursk Oblast.
• Russian forces recently advanced south of Chasiv Yar, southeast of Kurakhove, and north of Vuhledar.
• Regional Russian authorities continued to promote the expansion of newly established regional territorial defense formations by highlighting efforts to recruit women.

I saw that DNA outfit vanishes story and rolled my eyes. I love genealogical research and sometimes respond to interesting posts on Mumsnet (although my research tends to lead to mini-mysteries and dead ends) but have never given away DNA. Not my thing. The trail tracing back to a a Russian owned company...

Regarding targeting, I had an odd encounter a couple of months ago in London (I don't think it was necessarily targeting, just that reading today's posts brought it back to mind). I don't go out of my way to meet Ukrainians and Russians in the UK, though we do cross paths professionally and through social links. I prefer to support relatives IN Ukraine and have tried to put the conflict in as much as a box as I can in terms of the toll it takes emotionally and financially, while remembering that I am not living where drones and shells might get me.

A longstanding friend had said 'we have an interesting exile from Ukraine working with us, you should meet her'. I did my usual 'maybe' and forgot about it until we were at said friend's place for a social gathering and there was 'interesting exile'.

IE said she was from Odessa and was interested in my having relatives in Dnipro etc. She soon revealed herself to be some form of Putinist (it was like when you realise you are chatting to a member of a cult). She told me that 'everything you see on western media is a lie', my relatives are not telling me the truth and - when I said three had died in the conflict - almost whispered that my saying that was suspicious.

I told my friend her colleague was a Russbot who I don't want to know. No further contact since.

Trump has ruled out Mike Pompeo so goodness knows who we’ll get!

@MMBaranova

Bloody hell, what a truly dreadful human being. Wish we could refuse entry to people like that.

A real shame

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump's peace plan may include deploying (kyivindependent.com/trump-may-call-on-british-and-european-troops-to-patrol-buffer-zone-over-current-front-line-telegraph-reports/) European troops to buffer zone in Ukraine, Telegraph reports.
The U.S. would supply weapons to Ukraine to prevent Moscow from re-launching the war. In exchange, Ukraine would agree not to pursue its ambition to join NATO for 20 years. Trump’s plan does not include deploying U.S. troops to patrol the 1,200-kilometer buffer zone.

⚡️ 'Crimea is gone (kyivindependent.com/crimea-is-gone-senior-trump-advisor-says-ukraine-needs-to-be-realistic/)' — Senior Trump advisor says Ukraine needs to be 'realistic.'

⚡️Efforts underway (kyivindependent.com/dialogue-underway-to-begin-organizing-zelensky-trump-meeting-minister-says/) to prepare Zelensky-Trump meeting, minister says.

Moscow claims (kyivindependent.com/moscow-claims-shooting-down-50-ukrainian-drones-in-7-russian-regions-overnight/) shooting down 50 Ukrainian drones in 7 Russian regions overnight.
The Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have thwarted Kyiv's "attempt" to target unidentified sites with drones in Bryansk, Kursk, Novgorod, Smolensk, Tula, Oryol, and Tver oblasts.

⚡️US to deliver (kyivindependent.com/us-to-deliver-over-500-interceptors-for-patriot-nasams-systems-to-ukraine-wsj-reports/) over 500 interceptors for Patriot, NASAMS systems to Ukraine, WSJ reports. The weapons, which are expected to arrive in the coming weeks, should meet the demand for Ukraine air defense needs for the remainder of 2024, the official said.

⚡️ Battlefield situation 'challenging' and 'trending towards escalation (kyivindependent.com/battlefield-situation-challenging-and-trending-towards-escalation-syrskyi-says/),' Syrskyi says.
"We have numerous reports about the preparation of North Korean soldiers to participate in combat operations alongside Russian forces," Syrskyi said.

⚡️ Russian artillery production to outmatch all of EU by 30% (kyivindependent.com/russian-artillery-production-to-outmatch-all-of-eu-by-30-next-year-ukrainian-intelligence-says/) next year, Ukrainian intelligence says.
An ammunition shortage has long been a cause for concern in Ukraine but has escalated this year.

⚡️EU preparing (https://kyivindependent.com/eu-preparing-15th-sanctions-package-against-russia-targeting-foreign-made-parts/) 15th sanctions package against Russia, targeting foreign-made parts.

⚡️ Ukraine has produced its first 100 missiles (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-has-produced-its-first-100-missiles-zelensky-says/), Zelensky says.

Ukrainian drones have struck the Aleksinsky chemical plant, which produces gunpowder and ammunition for the Russian military, in Russia's Tula Oblast, a source at the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Nov. 9. https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-drones-hit-chemical-plant-in-russias-tula-oblast-source-says/

⚡️Russia launches record number (kyivindependent.com/russia-launches-record-overnight-drone-attack-on-ukraine/)of drones in overnight attack on Ukraine.
Russian forces launched a record 145 drones at Ukraine overnight and Ukrainian air defense downed 62 drones.

⚡️ Russian losses in Ukraine reached record high (https://kyivindependent.com/russian-losses-in-ukraine-reached-record-high-in-october-uk-defense-minister-says/) in October, UK defense minister says.

⚡️ American AI company Vantiq launches project to develop smart cities in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com/american-ai-company-vantiq-launches-project-to-develop-smart-cities-in-ukraine/).
The MOU will establish over 100 industrial parks across Ukraine, impacting the lives of 2.5 million citizens, and helping create “hyper-modern” cities.

As of Oct. 16, UNESCO confirmed the damage to 457 sites, including 143 religious sites, 231 buildings of historical or artistic interest, 32 museums, 33 monuments, 17 libraries, and one archive. https://kyivindependent.com/unesco-sites/

⚡️Mediazona confirms (kyivindependent.com/mediazona-confirms-identities-of-over-77-000-russian-soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/) identities of over 77,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ NOV 9, 2024
■ 5th highest daily casualties, combat engagements slightly above 7-day average
■ APV & vehicle losses above average, 3 missiles intercepted
■ 🇷🇺 strikes above average, 🇺🇦 ones below it

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Former UK Defense Minister Ben Wallace expressed concerns about delays in the licensing process for exporting weapons to Ukraine, noting that companies now face up to a six-month wait. Speaking on BBC Radio 4, Wallace stated, “This does not look like a government that wants to help Ukraine,” pointing to Foreign Office bureaucracy as a cause of the slowed delivery of critical technologies needed for Ukraine’s defense.

⚡️During the night, Ukraine’s Defense Forces targeted ammunition depots at the 1060th logistics center in Russia’s Bryansk region, according to the General Staff.
Reports indicate at least eight explosions and evidence of two ignition points within the military unit, along with signs of secondary detonation. As of 6:00, a significant fire was ongoing, with damage assessment still underway.

British intelligence reports indicate that approximately 41,980 Russian troops were killed or wounded in October, surpassing the previous high of 39,110 in May. This amounts to an average of 1,354 Russian casualties per day. October marks the second consecutive month in which Russian forces have experienced record losses in their war against Ukraine.

EU High Representative Josep Borrell stated that there is currently no consensus among EU member states on relocating the training mission to Ukrainian territory.

🔞Sensitive content! Russian military once again shot a wounded Ukrainian prisoner of war https://t.me/United24media/26606

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Drones from Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) and Special Operations Forces (SSO) attacked the Aleksin Chemical Plant in Russia’s Tula region, according to SBU sources.
This chemical plant is part of the Rostec corporation and produces ammunition, gunpowder, and materials for Russia’s military-industrial complex.
The Russian Aleksin Chemical Plant is exploding and smoking. Operations have been suspended, and personnel have been evacuated, according to the SBU.

⚠️Over the past week, Russia has used more than 800 guided aerial bombs, nearly 600 attack drones, and approximately 20 missiles of various types against Ukraine

Republican Bryan Lanza’s comments about a “realistic” peace plan without returning Crimea do not reflect Trump’s position, reports Reuters. (www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-adviser-says-priority-ukraine-is-peace-not-return-territory-2024-11-09/)

🤯Teachers in Russia are making tin foil hats to protect themselves from external NATO influence.
The patriotic initiative "Helmet of the Fatherland" was meant to demonstrate readiness for protection against NATO satellites' radiation. Teachers completed the task and reported on their work with photos and videos.
It turned out that the absurd instruction was sent to the teachers by a Belarusian prankster.

In Mariupol, the occupiers are delivering utility bills directly to the ruins of homes they destroyed.
To keep the papers from being blown away by the wind, they placed a piece of wall on top.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Polish PM Tusk Announces Upcoming Ceasefire Statement for Ukraine
Donald Tusk said that an announcement is expected soon regarding the date of a ceasefire in Ukraine, specifying the border along which it will be enforced and the security guarantees for Ukraine. He confirmed that this plan is currently in the preparation stage. [this is the only report Ive seen of this; no one else seems to be speaking of it]

Russia's property market crisis is only getting worse, with October sales down as much as -82% in some cities.
The wartime property boom caused by military death payments to families of deceased soldiers is over and the average mortage rate has climbed to 25%.