Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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I am now fascinated by the reports that apparently Putin has said he has no plans to congratulate Trump. Feels like a sinister opening gambit.
@Igotjelly Well said.
Strength needed more than ever.

Was referring to your previous post.

I was half expecting Trump to speak to Putin before Zelensky.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

BREAKING: Trump wins US 2024 presidential election (kyivindependent.com/trump-wins-us-2024-presidential-election-what-now-for-ukraine/), foreign leaders congratulate

⚡️Republicans take back (kyivindependent.com/republicans-win-us-senate/) US Senate.

⚡️ China's support 'keeps Putin's army in the field in Ukraine,' Australia's intelligence chief (kyivindependent.com/chinas-support-keeps-putins-army-in-the-field-in-ukraine-australias-intelligence-chief-says/) says.
Beijing's "massive provision" of dual-use goods, as well as diplomatic and economic support, allow Russia to continue its war against Ukraine, the chief of Australia's intelligence agency said on Nov. 6, Reuters reported.

⚡️ Ukraine hits Russian naval base (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-targeted-russian-naval-base-in-dagestan-drone-strike-source-says/) in Dagestan for first time, source says. At least two vessels – missile ships Tatarstan and Dagestan – were damaged in the attack, and possibly also several small Project 21631 ships, sources said.

Foreign ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) and three key allies have expressed "grave concerns" over North Korea's military deployment in Russia and are working on a "coordinated response," according to the joint statement published on Nov. 5. https://kyivindependent.com/foreign-ministers-of-g7-allied-countries-prepare-coordinated-response-to-dprk-military-involvement-in-russias-war/

⚡️ Russia has suffered 20,800 casualties (kyivindependent.com/russia-has-suffered-20-800-casualties-in-kursk-oblast-syrskyi-claims/) in Kursk Oblast, Syrskyi claims.

⚡️Bomb threats across multiple states traced to Russian email domains (kyivindependent.com/bomb-threats-across-multiple-states-traced-to-russian-email-domains-fbi-says/), FBI says.

⚡️Chinese accounts (kyivindependent.com/chinese-accounts-linked-to-russian-election-disinformation/) linked to Russian election disinformation.
Analysts at the Atlantic Council's Digital Forensic Research Lab found that accounts originating in China helped amplify Russian disinformation videos targeting U.S. voters.

Sweden will provide Ukraine with a new aid package valued at nine million euros ($9.8 million), which includes two vessels designed to enhance maritime security. The country will also supply 40,000 protective masks and respirators to Ukraine's Emergency Service personnel. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-unveils-new-aid-package-for-ukraine-worth-over-9-million/

⚡️Putin appoints Ukraine war veteran (kyivindependent.com/putin-appoints-war-veteran-as-governor-of-tambov-region-reflecting-growing-prestige-of-military/) as governor of Tambov region.

⚡️ London unable to retrieve UK-licensed arms (https://kyivindependent.com/bloomberg-uk-licensed-arms-russian-tankers/) used to protect Russian oil tankers, Bloomberg reports.
The United Kingdom has been unable to retrieve its weapons from floating armories offering weapons and accommodation for guards defending Russian oil tankers, Bloomberg reported on Nov. 5.

⚡️Ukrainian electronic warfare could indirectly affect smartphone clock while repelling drone attacks (https://kyivindependent.com/ukrainian-electronic-warfare-could-indirectly-affect-smartphone-clock-while-repelling-drone-attacks-general-staff-says/), General Staff says.
There may be disruptions in the operation of smartphone clocks due to electronic warfare (EW) used to repel Russian air attacks, the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces said on Nov. 5.
Users in Ukraine have begun to experience more frequent automatic time changes on their smartphones due to the activation of electronic warfare systems during air raid alarms.

⚡️Russian military shoots 6 Ukrainian POWs (kyivindependent.com/russian-military-shoots-6-ukrainian-pows-in-donetsk-oblast-prosecutor-generals-office/) in Donetsk Oblast, Prosecutor General's Office says.

Putin does not plan to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory, as the U.S. is an unfriendly country "involved in a war against Russia," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said in reference to U.S. support for Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/russia-reactions/

⚡️ Russian attacks against Ukraine injure 37, kill 9 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-ukraine-injure-37-kill-9-over-past-day/) over past day.

‪Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬- NOV 6, 2024
■ Engagements, casualties & equipment losses below 7-day average
■ Reported drone losses slightly above average
■ Above average 🇺🇦 strikes & relatively few 🇷🇺 MLRS strikes result in an improved strike ratio

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

❗️No more wars during my term. I'm going to stop wars, — Donald Trump

Donald Trump has officially secured 277 electoral votes, surpassing the 270 needed to win the U.S. presidency, according to reports from CNN, AP, The New York Times, and other media outlets. While the vote count is ongoing, it is clear that there is no remaining uncertainty regarding the outcome of the election.

Google has responded to the recent controversy surrounding an update to its maps, which included images revealing the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The company clarified that these images were taken over a year ago and sourced from publicly accessible data. Google assured that it does not intentionally release recent images of active conflict zones and highlighted its ongoing communication with Ukrainian authorities to address such concerns

In the past three months, Russia has launched approximately 4,300 Shahed drones and other similar attack drones over Ukraine. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully intercepted and destroyed around 71% of these targets.

EU Ambassadors have agreed to extend the EU Military Training Mission for Ukraine by an additional two years, as reported by Rikard Jozwiak, editor at Radio Liberty Europe. Since its inception, the mission has trained around 70,000 Ukrainian servicemen across 24 participating countries.

Russian oil companies are facing growing challenges in repairing refineries equipped with imported technology, according to industry sources cited by Reuters. In October, three refineries were unable to fully complete scheduled repairs, and they have extended the downtime of certain units into November.
The affected refineries include Lukoil's Volgograd plant, one of Russia's ten largest with a capacity of 15 million tons annually, as well as the Ilsky and Yaya refineries. Consequently, idle refining capacity could exceed planned levels by 1.5 times, rising from the initially projected 1.2 million tons to between 1.8 and potentially even 2 million tons, sources report.
This disruption stems from Western sanctions that have halted the supply of equipment and components to Russia. Many Russian refineries, including the 40 largest, were built or modernized with the technology and software of European and American companies such as UOP and ABB, whose support is now restricted.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇷🇺🇺🇸The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has stated that Russia will engage with the new U.S. administration while firmly defending its national interests. The ministry emphasized that Russia will focus on achieving all objectives of its special military operation.

German city of Suhl is preparing to officially withdraw from its proposed partnership with the Ukrainian city of Podilsk in favor of Russia’s Kuluga
According (www.tagesschau.de/inland/regional/thueringen/mdr-suhl-sagt-partnerschaft-mit-ukrainischer-stadt-podilsk-ab-100.html) to a spokesperson for MDR Thüringen, the formal letter of cancellation is currently being drafted. This decision follows a resolution passed by the city council, which voted against the partnership offer from Ukraine last week.
The primary argument cited for this decision was the potential risk to Suhl’s existing partnership with the Russian city of Kaluga. The city council expressed concerns that establishing a relationship with Podilsk could jeopardize the ties with Kaluga, which has been a sister city for Suhl.

🇰🇵North Korean soldiers turn to pornography after gaining internet access in Russia
According to Gideon Rachman, a journalist for the Financial Times, North Korean soldiers have begun to show an increased interest in pornography after their arrival in Russia and subsequent access to the internet.
Historically, North Korea has maintained strict controls over information access, limiting the influence of external media.
However, as soldiers find themselves in Russia and gain internet access, reports suggest they are actively taking advantage of this opportunity to view adult content.
Earlier, 18 North Korean servicemen have reportedly (united24media.com/latest-news/18-north-korean-soldiers-have-reportedly-fled-russian-positions-towards-border-3022) deserted their positions along the border between Russia’s Bryansk and Kursk regions, approximately seven kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

In the first 9 months of 2024, Ukraine imported UAVs worth twice as much as in the entire year of 2023.
94% of UAV imports came from China.
Statistics show all UAVs, but it is logical to assume that most are for the military rather than agriculture.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Not much, it's mostly US elections.

😓

Source for one of the stories linked by @DucklingSwimmingInstructress above.

Washington, D.C.
FBI National Press Office
November 5, 2024
FBI Statement on Bomb Threats to Polling Locations

The FBI is aware of bomb threats to polling locations in several states, many of which appear to originate from Russian email domains. None of the threats have been determined to be credible thus far.

Election integrity is among the FBI’s highest priorities. We will continue to work closely with our state and local law enforcement partners to respond to any threats to our elections and to protect our communities as Americans exercise their right to vote.

As always, we urge the public to remain vigilant and report suspicious activity to state or local law enforcement, or submit tips to the FBI at 1-800-CALL-FBI (1-800-225-5324) or online at tips.fbi.gov.
https://www.fbi.gov/news/press-releases/fbi-statement-on-bomb-threats-to-polling-locations

We don't know if this had any impact on the results, and if so what. But there's always some account or other popping up to claim that Russia hasn't interfered in US elections, so it's good to keep the receipts.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-5-2024

Key Takeaways:

• The first North Korean forces have likely officially engaged in combat against Ukrainian troops in Kursk Oblast.
• The Kremlin appointed the first-ever "Time of Heroes" program participant to a federal-level position, furthering its ongoing effort to staff government positions with pro-war veterans and set long-term conditions for the militarization of Russian government bodies from local to federal levels.
• Russia launched two Iranian-made satellites into orbit on November 5 via a Russian space-launch vehicle, furthering a trend of Russian-Iranian bilateral space cooperation.
• Russian forces recently advanced southeast of Kupyansk, northwest of Kreminna, in Chasiv Yar, near Toretsk, southeast of Pokrovsk, northeast of Kurakhove, near Vuhledar, and north of Robotyne.
• Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions south of Chasiv Yar.
• The Russian military is struggling to maintain a sufficient number of quality personnel within traditionally elite forces.

Others, such as Lindy Li, a senior Democratic official in Pennsylvania, are questioning whether the outcome would have been different if Harris had chosen a different vice-presidential candidate, such as the governor of Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro.

Seems others share your view @MissConductUS

Its a shame but at the same time, regardless of the hand wringing and wailing by the Democrats, Trump was there to see for the person he is… utterly unfit to be President of the world’s biggest superpower. Amoral, convicted felon who incited a riot against Capital Hill. Yet still they voted for him.

This. You can't reason with crazy.

Personally I don't hold ill will against the majority of people that voted for Trump (the hardcore MAGA people are different). It's a bit like Brexit, lots of these people are struggling day to day and don't feel like the establishment and status quo speaks for them. As with Brexit they were spun a yarn of lies and misinformation that led them to think something might improve for them if they voted for Trump. If you're unemployed, struggling to put a roof over your family's head and by extension can't afford healthcare then promises to reinvigorate the American domestic manufacturing industry for instance is pretty attractive. It's these very same people that will suffer unfortunately.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-6-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian naval base in Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan for the first time on November 6 damaging several missile ships of the Russia Caspian Sea Flotilla.
• Ukrainian authorities reported that Russian forces executed at least 109 Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) since the start of the full-scale invasion amid new reports of Russian executions of Ukrainian POWs.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk, Svatove, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions.
• A prominent Russian brigade commander and official indicated that Russian commanders and civilian leadership explicitly view Russian military volunteers as expendable resources, consistent with high casualty rates across the frontline.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Trump to call Putin, seek quick deal to end Russia-Ukraine war, says Volker (https://kyivindependent.com/trump-to-call-putin-seek-quick-deal-to-end-russia-ukraine-war-says-volker/)

⚡️ Trump, South Korean president discuss (kyivindependent.com/trump-yoon-discuss-north-korean-troops/) North Korean troops joining Russia's war.

⚡️Germany's governing coalition collapses (kyivindependent.com/germanys-government-coalition-collapses-as-scholz-fires-finance-minister/) as Scholz fires Finance Minister.
Germany's three-party governing coalition collapsed on Nov. 6 after German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced that he had dismissed Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
In his statement following the dismissal, Scholz partly justified the decision by noting that he had asked Lindner to relax spending rules to allow increased aid for Ukraine, but Lindner refused.
Political instability in Berlin may spell trouble for Kyiv amid the rise of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party — known for its amicable views toward the Kremlin — who has continuously called for cutting funding for Ukraine. Under the current ruling coalition, Berlin allocated 7.6 billion euros ($8.2 billion) in military assistance for Kyiv in the 2024 budget.

⚡️Biden administration rushing (kyivindependent.com/biden-administration-rushing-to-deliver-6-billion-in-remaining-aid-to-ukraine-ahead-of-trumps-inauguration-politico-reports/) to deliver $6 billion in remaining aid to Ukraine ahead of Trump's inauguration, Politico reports.
Two administration officials told Politico that the White House plans to expedite the weapons delivery amid concerns that a future Trump administration would halt weapons shipments before they reach Kyiv.

⚡️Ukraine, US have 'potential for stronger (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-us-have-potential-for-stronger-cooperation-zelensky-says-following-trump-victory/) cooperation,' Zelensky says following Trump victory. [I think that phrasing shows just how frustrated he's been with Biden's limited (though crucial) support]

⚡️Warsaw to host (kyivindependent.com/warsaw-to-host-international-conference-on-rebuilding-ukraines-energy-infrastructure/) international conference on rebuilding Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

⚡️Zelensky to visit (kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-hungary-for/) Hungary for European Political Community Summit.

⚡️ Putin, Russian officials privately (https://kyivindependent.com/putin-informally-congratulates-trump-media-reports/) congratulate Trump "through acquaintances" instead of an official phone call, the Russian independent news outlet Verstka reported on Nov. 6.

⚡️ Ukraine's gas production (kyivindependent.com/ukraines-gas-production-highest-since-full-scale-invasions-start/) highest since full-scale invasion's start.
According to EXPRO’s calculations, gross natural gas production rose by 2.3% in October 2024 compared to the same month last year, reaching 1.663 billion cubic meters, the highest level since January 202

⚡️President Sandu's opponent concedes (kyivindependent.com/sandus-rival-concedes-defeat-in-moldovas-presidential-election/), days after losing Moldovan presidential election.

⚡️Chinese state-owned company reportedly begins refusing (kyivindependent.com/chinese-state-owned-company-reportedly-begins-refusing-to-insure-exports-to-russia/) to insure exports to Russia.

One idea within U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's team for ending Russia's war involves delaying Kyiv's NATO membership for at least 20 years in exchange for continued arms supplies, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Nov. 6, citing three sources close to Trump. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-ukraine-plan-wsj/

Ukraine state-owned enterprises weekly — Special issue on state-owned railway company Ukrzaliznytsia (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-state-owned-enterprises-weekly-special-issue-on-state-owned-railway-company-ukrzaliznytsia/)
In this special issue, Oleksandr Lysenko and Andriy Boytsun highlight several events illustrating failures in the corporate governance of Ukrzaliznytsia. These relate to the core mechanisms intended to deter political meddling in state-owned enterprises (SOEs).

⚡️Russian attacks across Ukraine kill 2 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-across-ukraine-kill-2-injure-13-over-past-day/), injure 13 over past day.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦- NOV 7, 2024
■ Increased combat engagements, casualties & equipment losses
■ Special equipment & vehicle looses above 7-day average
■ Improved strike ratio

Sorry about the italics, can't work out this time why they're happening.

One idea within U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's team for ending Russia's war involves delaying Kyiv's NATO membership for at least 20 years in exchange for continued arms supplies, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Nov. 6, citing three sources close to Trump. https://kyivindependent.com/trump-ukraine-plan-wsjj**/*

Well yes, 20 years should be plenty of time for Russia to go back and finish what they started!
With Trump in the Whitehouse it seems inevitable that Ukraine will lose the portion of their country that is currently occupied by Russia. But any deal forced upon Ukraine should be predicated on whatever sovereign land they are allowed to hold on to following the Putin/Trump carve up having full membership of NATO from day one. It's the only way to hold Putin at bay in the future.

It would be good to know what these weapons would be and how advanced/quantity. Would this be a constant supply? If Ukraine is armed to the teeth and able to deter / overmatch Russia I wonder if there's something in this?

Meanwhile I see that the German coalition Government has collapsed and that there will be a vote of confidence early next year.

So far it's only an idea about delaying Ukraine's NATO membership.

I rather wonder if the EU is going to create its own military alliance in future, if Trump takes the US out of NATO or weakens its role to the point of non-presence.

It would just be kicking a worse can down the road for the US though wouldnt it? If NATO is undermined and Russo consequently emboldened how long before US interests are directly threatened? How long before they get involved anyway? With Russia and China in cahoots the US needs Europe and its European allies. How much does the US really want European autonomy? Yes to Europeans ploughing everything into their own defence capabilities but ideally this would still be part of a strongly US involved NATO for all these reasons. I don't get how this isn't obvious? But maybe I'm wrong!

Russia, not Russo 🙈

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has arrived at the European Political Community summit in Budapest

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, responding to the recent success of the Republican Party and Donald Trump in the U.S. elections, has called for a re-evaluation of Europe’s strategy regarding Ukraine.
Orbán emphasized that one of the most challenging issues to address will be the future of the €50 billion loan package for Ukraine, which was previously planned to be jointly funded by the EU and the U.S. under a G7 agreement.

European leaders are set to convene in Budapest for the European Political Community summit on November 7, followed by an informal EU leaders’ meeting on November 8, hosted by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Key topics will include the implications of Donald Trump’s recent victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 5 and the ongoing war in Ukraine, according to Voice of America.

French President Emmanuel Macron has urged EU countries to establish a unified response following Donald Trump's victory, cautioning against an "every man for himself" approach.

Zelenskyy announced that he had a phone conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, during which he extended his congratulations on Trump’s election victory.

French President Emmanuel Macron held a telephone conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, as reported by AFP, citing the Elysee Palace. During the call, both leaders expressed a commitment to “cooperate in the interests of restoring peace and stability.”

OSINT analysts have reported that Russia’s stockpile of Soviet-era artillery shells is nearing depletion, as indicated by recent satellite images of Russian ammunition warehouses.
The images suggest that by September, these storage facilities were nearly empty. According to the analysis, Russian forces were expending up to 50,000 shells daily in the spring of 2024, intensifying the strain on their artillery reserves.

According to Politico, President Joe Biden’s administration plans to allocate $6 billion in military support for Ukraine before Donald Trump’s inauguration. This includes $4.3 billion for transferring weapons from existing U.S. military stockpiles, with replacements to follow, and an additional $2.1 billion designated for weapons purchases through contracts with American defense companies.

Kyiv Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko announced that the city’s first cogeneration gas-piston plant, with a capacity of 1.5 MW, has been launched. This development was supported by USAID, which assisted with the installation of equipment at a critical infrastructure facility.

I’m glad Zelenskyy has spoken to Trump already. Though Trump used it as a backhanded compliment he wasn’t wrong that Zelenskyy is one of the World’s best sales people. If he can’t sell the case for Ukraine then no one can and I have a strong belief in his power of persuasion.

I think all forward looking people agree with you. The US needs external trade links!

But I don't think Trump or, on the evidence to date, the US people think in the bigger picture. Just as the UK has not, and various other countries :s