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Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

1000 replies

MagicFox · 10/10/2024 15:59

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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247
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/11/2024 15:42

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights Thread

Mark Rutte, Secretary General of NATO: Russia is ramping up hybrid attacks on allied territories, shifting the front line beyond Ukraine to the Baltic region, Western Europe, and the High North.

⚠️ Russia is now launching approximately 10 times more Shahed drones than last autumn, Zelensky stated after the Supreme Commander-in-Chief’s Staff meeting.

πŸ‡¦πŸ‡Ί Australia will provide Ukraine with 14 boats worth $14 million.
These vessels will help the Defense Forces of Ukraine respond swiftly to threats in the Black Sea.

A speech by Alexander Borodai, a member of the Russian parliament and a participant in the war in Donbas since 2014, has leaked online, addressing the so-called Russian volunteers. He openly referred to them as "second-rate soldiers" and "surplus people," used solely to exhaust Ukrainian defenses. According to him, the hundreds of thousands joining the Russian army are ballast, incapable of productive activity.
He claims this approach is necessary while Russia prepares for a more serious offensive from the rear.

❄️In the meantime, winter has arrived at the front β€” the first snow has fallen. Fundamentally, snow and cold complicate the conduct of modern warfare, but not to the extent that it completely halts attacks.

πŸ‡΅πŸ‡± Poland plans to invest (www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/poland-spend-750-mln-boost-ammunition-production-2024-11-05/) $750 million in ammunition production to prepare for potential conflict with Russia. A corresponding bill was published late on Monday, November 4, with the government aiming to adopt it during the fourth quarter.
Such security measures are not isolated; since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Poland has consistently strengthened its defense capabilities.

πŸ‡²πŸ‡©Moldova has officially enshrined its EU membership aspirations in its constitution
The results of the referendum on Moldova's European integration have been officially added to the Constitution.
The Constitutional Court of Moldova's decision to recognize the referendum results was published in the official government bulletin, making it effective.
The Constitution's preamble will now include two new statements:
β–ͺ️Affirming the European identity of the people of the Republic of Moldova and the irreversibility of the European trajectory of the Republic of Moldova;
β–ͺ️Establishing integration into the European Union as a strategic objective of the Republic of Moldova.
In the October 20 referendum, 50.35% of citizens voted in favor of pursuing European integration. The pro-EU votes were 11,277 more than those against.

Radio Liberty obtained a draft agreement that Moscow proposed to Ukraine in the early days of the full-scale invasion in 2022. However, it was more of a document demanding capitulation.
πŸ”» Ukraine was to reduce its army to 50,000 personnel, four ships, 55 helicopters, and 300 tanks.
πŸ”» Ukraine was offered an obligation β€œnot to develop, produce, purchase, or deploy missile weapons” with a range exceeding 250 km on its territory.
πŸ”» Ukraine was to β€œrecognize the independence” of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk β€œrepublics” within the administrative borders of Ukraine.
πŸ”» Ukraine had to finance the reconstruction of the Donbas infrastructure that had been destroyed since 2014.
πŸ”» Russia demanded the lifting of all sanctions β€” both Ukrainian and international β€” and the withdrawal of all international lawsuits filed since 2014.
πŸ”» Russia insisted that the Russian language be granted state status and that the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate regain all property rights.
πŸ”» Russia demanded that Ukrainian troops lay down their arms and β€œreturn to barracks,” while Russian troops would remain in place.
The draft titled β€œAgreement on the Settlement of the Situation in Ukraine and Ukraine’s Neutrality” was dated March 7, 2022. Radio Liberty obtained it from a Ukrainian source, and a Russian source close to the negotiations confirmed its authenticity.

In Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia, local residents turned a β€œMultiethnic Unity” day into a march with imperial flags and far-right chants like β€œWe are Russians! God is with us!” https://t.me/liveukraine_media/25976

Live: Ukraine

In Nizhniy Novgorod, Russia, local residents turned a β€œMultiethnic Unity” day into a march with imperial flags and far-right chants like β€œWe are Russians! God is with us!” πŸͺ Subscribe to Live: Ukraine

https://t.me/liveukraine_media/25976

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 05/11/2024 15:49

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Now with Russia's backing, North Korea successfully testing missiles capable of hitting US cities.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41641

Western security officials report that two incendiary devices, sent through DHL, were part of a covert Russian operation intended to ignite fires on cargo or passenger planes bound for the U.S. and Canada.
According to officials, the plot marks an escalation in Moscow's ongoing sabotage efforts targeting Western countries. The incendiary devices, designed to ignite mid-flight, were intercepted before they could reach their intended targets, preventing potential onboard fires.
Analysts suggest that the operation signals an increase in covert actions by Russia, aimed at disrupting air travel and commerce to North America β€” WSJ.

Russia sent it's "fifth generation Su-57 fighter jets to impress at China's biggest annual air show and got laughed out of the place.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41667

As the Russian bond market continues it's collapse to near 1990's levels, issuance of mortgages in September also taking a big hit, decreasing from previous year -60% and the lowest September since at least 2017.

As Ukraine's allies dither and reduce weapons packages, Russia escalates, making gains and terrorizing cities, causing a down shift in the Ukrainian population's willingness to withstand.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41619

Portion of the Russian state budget allocated for the Putin regime's global terrorism is now the single largest government expense, and rapidly growing.

The price that the Russian government is forced to pay to convince Russians to face the artillery barrages and drone waves of Ukraine continues hitting records.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
blueshoes · 05/11/2024 22:55

notimagain · 05/11/2024 13:23

The authorities are rightly keeping precise details of what exactly was in the relevant consignments under wrap and TBH I don’t know what the shippers get up to with the scanning of cargo for cargo only flights, I can only guess they must do checking of some sort..

What I do know is that the rules for cargo carriage on passenger aircraft are much more restrictive than the rules for cargo only flights…

I’m now very much into speculation but I’d say if you wanted to get something onto a flight with the potential to really burn or go bang you’d possibly stand more chance on a cargo flight, because you could probably more easily hide it within or disguise it as, say, tins of paint or a big package of Li-ion batteries….the sort of material that can’t be carried in the belly hold of passenger flights.

@notimagain thanks for the insight. That makes sense.

blueshoes · 05/11/2024 23:03

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian and pro-Kremlin actors launched an information operation on November 4 to discredit incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s victory in the Moldovan presidential elections.
  • Georgian civil society and opposition resumed peaceful demonstrations on November 4 against the highly contested October 26 Georgian parliamentary elections, calling for continued resistance and further investigations into large-scale voting irregularities.
  • Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty's (RFE/RL) Sistema project released an investigation on November 4 detailing Russia's initial 2022 demands for Ukraine's total capitulation, further supporting ISW's long-standing assessment that Russia has never been willing to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine on any terms but its own.
  • Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure in Summer 2024 reportedly significantly impacted Ukrainian electrical generation capacity compared to March 2024, though it is unclear whether Russia had been able to inflict significant further damage on the Ukrainian energy grid since.
  • The Kremlin-awarded founder and director of the prominent Rybar Telegram channel and social media project attempted to falsely portray himself as a non-Kremlin actor in the Western media and confirmed the Kremlin’s efforts to establish β€œmedia schools” abroad.
  • Russian authorities arrested Rosgvardia's Deputy Head of Logistics Major General Mirza Mirzaev for bribery on November 3.
  • Russian forces advanced near Novy Put, Kursk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian forces advanced in Kharkiv Oblast and Russian forces advanced in the Kupyansk, Kreminna, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar directions.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues attempts to form a cadre of loyal military journalists in an effort to control the pro-war Russian information space and centralize control over Russia’s war coverage.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 52
dibly · 06/11/2024 01:20

Good to see you back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress

Anyone else watching the US election with hands over their eyes?

blueshoes · 06/11/2024 01:44

@dibly I cannot watch at all. Tell me when it is over.

Llttledrummergirl · 06/11/2024 01:48

In between sleep. It's going to be days yet.

MagicFox · 06/11/2024 06:32

Looks like it will be Trump doesn't it 😒

OP posts:
Natsku · 06/11/2024 07:40

It does Sad I checked when I woke up and things were still hopeful but just checked now and it looks inevitable

Igotjelly · 06/11/2024 08:02

Yes agree it’s basically certain at this point. To be honest I think I’m going to have to step away, I’ve been having continuous panic attacks through the night and just don’t think I can cope with watching everything unravel in real time. I feel so utterly hopeless so goodness only knows how the Ukrainians are feeling. I suspect we’ll see the partition of Ukraine pretty soon. Wonder if Trump has already been on the phone to Putin 😭

heldinadream · 06/11/2024 08:07

Well shit.
Feeling deeply for Ukraine this morning above all else.

MagicFox · 06/11/2024 08:09

Igotjelly · 06/11/2024 08:02

Yes agree it’s basically certain at this point. To be honest I think I’m going to have to step away, I’ve been having continuous panic attacks through the night and just don’t think I can cope with watching everything unravel in real time. I feel so utterly hopeless so goodness only knows how the Ukrainians are feeling. I suspect we’ll see the partition of Ukraine pretty soon. Wonder if Trump has already been on the phone to Putin 😭

I've had phases like this too Jelly, ended up at the GP who agreed with me! Have a break from it, focus on the people that are doing the good work - they are there

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 06/11/2024 08:12

I feel so much for our American friends too, so many of them must feel such a sense of horror at the result.

dibly · 06/11/2024 08:28

Oh God, poor Ukraine. Agree, Trump has divided the world let alone Americans. For anyone who voted for him, you stupid, selfish bastards.

DrBlackbird · 06/11/2024 09:12

I do feel sick. Republicans, by which this means Trump, have control of both houses. So no checks and balances on this raging megalomaniac narcissist with the emotional range of a toddler.

It appears that the US has elected its own Kim Jong-un.

Natsku · 06/11/2024 09:30

It is so so terrible. I feel so little hope for the world right now.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 06/11/2024 09:30

Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck.

WinterMorn · 06/11/2024 09:42

I can’t actually believe it. I saw the news and got an instant headache.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 06/11/2024 10:41

The worst news to wake up to. I can't quite believe it's happened.
The only positive is it means Trump can't incite civil war - he was already laying the groundwork for claiming a rigged election.
If nothing else it proves democracy is alive and well, and if more people vote for a narcissistic, self serving, abuser, rapist and convicted felon they will get into office despite their unfitness.
What will happen to democracy now he's in power is another matter.

I fear for Ukraine with an emboldened Putin. I think the most likely scenario is Trump tells Putin if he stops the war now he can have the bits of Ukraine his army have occupied. Giving Russia a land bridge to Crimea and lots of valuable industrial/mining areas.
The stick will be If Putin doesn’t stop the war and agree terms Trump will arm Ukraine to the teeth.
And he’ll tell Zelensky if he doesn’t agree to those terms he’ll stop supplying weapons and support.

Putin will insist as part of the negotiation that Ukraine don’t join NATO - then when Putin’s built his forces back up in a few years he goes back for the rest of Ukraine on some pretext or other.
It’s depressing, and would signal to other dictators that redrawing borders by force works.
A bad day for the world but particularly Taiwan and the former soviet republics.

Natsku · 06/11/2024 11:17

A very bad day

Igotjelly · 06/11/2024 11:22

I’ve managed to compose myself a bit, enough at least to gather my thoughts. This is shit, the worst possible outcome but it’s happened. Now we need to pull up our collective big girl pants and get back to supporting Ukraine. They’ll need each and everyone of us even more than ever. The darkness is taking a bit longer to clear than I would like but I have faith that it will πŸ’™πŸ’›

PerkingFaintly · 06/11/2024 11:28

Brew all round.

Or Bovril rather heavily laced with sherry, for any who would prefer.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 06/11/2024 11:33

Honestly I'm not surprised. I'm devastated but I'm not surprised. My recent trip to Texas to see my friends in April showed me that trump has a spell like quality on seemingly normal people. Not unlike Hitler. My friends are critical thinkers in every other area, they are empathetic, intelligent and community focused. It's a real mind f**k.

MissConductUS · 06/11/2024 11:38

So here we are.

I did mention a few months ago that picking Walz over Shapiro for her VP pick was madness, and she lost Pennsylvania.

I would wait and see about Trump and Ukraine. He sent them Javelins when Obama wouldn't, and he won't want to be seen as "losing" to Putin.

Igotjelly · 06/11/2024 11:42

MissConductUS · 06/11/2024 11:38

So here we are.

I did mention a few months ago that picking Walz over Shapiro for her VP pick was madness, and she lost Pennsylvania.

I would wait and see about Trump and Ukraine. He sent them Javelins when Obama wouldn't, and he won't want to be seen as "losing" to Putin.

I do hope someone will play to his ego and can convince him that supporting Ukraine will let him be the saviour of Europe!

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