Ukraine Invasion: Part 52

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 52. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that a just resolution of the war depends on preserving Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Fidan also highlighted a sense of war fatigue among both parties, suggesting this might lead to unexpected developments in 2025. Türkiye’s position underscores its role as a mediator while affirming Ukraine’s sovereignty as essential to any fair outcome.

Google recently updated its maps, accidentally displaying images of Ukrainian Armed Forces’ military locations. Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation (CCD) reached out to Google to address the issue but initially received no response due to a company day off.
Following public concern, Google employees contacted the CCD, confirming they are working to resolve the issue. They also plan to discuss strategies for responding more quickly to similar situations in the future.
During recent attacks on Kyiv, Russian forces have adopted a tactic of flying attack drones at extremely low altitudes in an attempt to evade and probe air defense systems, according to Mykhailo Shamanov, spokesperson for the Kyiv City Military Administration. The drones, particularly Shaheds, enter Kyiv in coordinated groups, dispersing into single targets as they approach the city. Flying at low altitudes and in successive waves, they complicate air defense operations and create additional challenges for mobile response units.
The drones are also maneuvering in specific areas to attract the attention of mobile air defense groups, aiming to prompt movement and open corridors for subsequent drone waves. This tactic is designed to overwhelm and confuse air defenses, making it more difficult to intercept all incoming targets effectively.

According to The Washington Post, Russia is quietly supporting the idea of Donald Trump winning the upcoming U.S. presidential election, though his potential plans for ending the Russian war against Ukraine may be unappealing to Moscow.

The US funded the formation of 800 mobile fire teams in Ukraine this year to combat “Shahed” drones, according to US Ambassador to Kyiv, Bridget Brink. These teams, built within the State Border Service and National Police, have successfully downed over 200 Russian drones so far.

International partners will rebuild 11 educational institutions damaged by the war, according to the Ministry of Reintegration.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇵🇱Poland is not transferring (www.polsatnews.pl/wiadomosc/2024-10-31/zelenski-narzeka-na-polske-znalezli-inny-powod/) its MiG-29s to Ukraine because it is a “frontline country” and “Russia also threatens us.”
On October 31, President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is still waiting for Polish MiG-29 fighter jets, in exchange for which Poland would receive a NATO “policing mission” to protect its airspace, similar to that of the Baltic states. However, the Polish side has not yet transferred the aircraft for unspecified reasons.

🇹🇼 Taiwan has announced that it has completely halted the supply of machine tools to Russia
Since March 2024, Taiwan tightened export controls on machinery that Russia could potentially use for military purposes, effectively stopping the supply of such equipment to Russia.
▪️In February, The Washington Post published an investigation revealing that Russia had imported at least $20 million worth of high-tech equipment from Taiwan since January 2023.
▪️Following this, Taiwan imposed sanctions on the Russian company I Machine, which was importing Taiwanese machinery, subsequently strengthening export controls and increasing fines.

🇫🇮The Lenin Museum in Tampere, Finland, will permanently close its doors on November 3, per Aamulehti
In February 2025, a new museum of Eastern relations called Nootti will open on the site of the Lenin Museum.

🇧🇾Lukashenko admitted that there is a dictatorship in Belarus.
The President of Belarus stated that there is “indeed a dictatorship” in the country, but it is a “dictatorship of justice: stability, security, order, kindness, and hospitality.”

Welcome back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress 💐

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Poland has begun construction of the “Eastern Shield” line of fortifications along its border with Russia and Belarus.
This project, funded with $2.5 billion, is aimed at deterring potential aggression from these countries.
The “Eastern Shield” includes the construction of new fortifications along a 400-kilometer land border.

The United States will provide Ukraine with over 200 Stryker armored personnel carriers to help defend the Kursk region against potential pressure from North Korea — Forbes.

At an event in Brussels focused on the rehabilitation of Ukrainian soldiers, participants were reportedly targeted in a gas poisoning attempt.
After a film screening about the war in Ukraine, attendees noticed a strange smell and signs of poisoning. Event organizers stated that this was yet another provocation by Russia. Several people were hospitalized. An investigation is ongoing.

Russian troops paying bribes to avoid being sent to fight in Russia's Kursk region, seeking the safer areas of the front.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41486

Russia's bond market continues to collapse with bonds of the largest construction company in Russia, Samolet Group hitting new lows after a month long daily sell off.
Samolet Group currently has over 5,000,000 square meters under construction all over Russia.
Russian media discusses the potential for a government bailout.

Now doomed to the isolated life of a Kim Philby or Edward Snowden, the American recently exposed for spying on behalf of Russia in Ukraine has been rolled out in Moscow as a prop for the Kremlin's propaganda machine.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/41552

The butter crisis in Russia continues to worsen with the price of a 400 gram package now reaching the price of 835 rubles $8.53 as of October 28th.
In effort to ease the crisis, since October 18, 90 tons of product have already been urgently imported into the country from Iran, India, Turkey and UAE.

Another milestone in Russia's war as Russian casualties have now hit 700,000, surpassing the combined totals of all the following.
Russo-Japanese War (1904–05)
Afghan Soviet War (1979-1989)
First Chechen War (1994-1996)
Second Chchen War (1999-2009)
Crimean War (1853-1856)

Thank you @Hillsmakeyoustrong

This thread belongs to us all, but I do want to say a heartfelt Thank You to everyone who's helped keep the information rolling.

Welcome back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress. Hope you're feeling okay.
I'd just reported for duty to do my Monday round up and found you'd already done it, thank you 🥳
I'm happy to do a few more days if you want a break? & will start with regular Monday round ups next week.

Great news about Moldova 🇲🇩🥳 much gnashing of teeth in the Kremlin I'm sure that Moldova managed to slip their grasp this time - unlike Georgia.

I'd like to try to get back to them, but thank you! :) the mondays would be great though. Dozy me, I'd forgotten that.

Welcome back! And look after yourself.

Let's hope Moldova is an omen for the USA.

Welcome back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress, I hope all went well and you are recovering beautifully.

Good to welcome you back @DucklingSwimmingInstructressand sincere thanks to everyone who stepped in to maintain the info flow. 💐💐💐💐

Edward Lucas Op Ed today in The Times:

Putin is on the march, whoever wins in the US
Dithering in Washington and penny-pinching at home have left our defences painfully thin

Whether tomorrow’s election sends a transactional Donald Trump to the White House in January or the inexperienced Kamala Harris, our security is the loser. Years of dithering and timidity in Washington and of stinginess and complacency elsewhere have eroded, probably fatally, the network of alliances that underpinned global security for the past seven decades.
The decline is clearest here in Europe. In recent weeks I have been in Prague, Riga and Warsaw. The mood in these frontline states is bleak. War is likely, and sooner than we think. Assuming Russia beats Ukraine to a standstill, President Putin’s forces could be ready for more in two years, or less. Everyone still hopes that Nato will work and that the United States will come to help. Few believe it.
We are scandalously ill-prepared for this. Our armed forces lack the muscle, supplies or logistics to fight a real war. As a scathing report this year by Sweden’s FOI defence think tank pointed out, Britain could at best provide a “limited expeditionary force” that would have “serious issues with sustainability”.
Putin knows that. So do our friends, exasperated with our habit of over-promising and under-delivering. The Nordic and Baltic members in the ten-country Joint Expeditionary Force, supposedly UK-led, will give Keir Starmer an earful over this at a summit in Tallinn in December. These vital allies may start looking elsewhere for leadership.
Starmer should be even more worried that we cannot defend ourselves. This country largely lacks air defences to protect us against the missiles that rain down daily on Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure. On a good day, assuming (fingers crossed) one of our Type 45 destroyers is seaworthy and moored in the Thames estuary, it could protect London. But only for a few hours. Once that warship has fired its 48 Aster air-defence missiles it must reload from our skimpy stockpile. That would take most of a day, assuming (also) that we still have a functioning naval base.
We assume (again) that allies will protect us. But in the event of war, other European countries’ air defences will also be fully stretched. A minimum protective shield for southeastern England alone would cost £16 billion. What chance of that? The politics of taxing the rest of the country to defend one bit of it are tricky. But a shield for the whole of the UK will be prohibitively costly.
Self-deceit is our biggest weakness. We hollowed out our armed forces, disguising the damage with secrecy and boosterism. We fired Russia-watchers who told inconvenient truths to those in power. They include Keir Giles, whose defence analysis outfit was abolished in 2010. His new book Who Will Defend Europe? is a blistering account of our defence shortcomings. He tells me that he sees “no sign” the new government has recognised the urgency of the challenge.
Russia is attacking us right now, with sabotage and other mischief. A man from Leicestershire last month pleaded guilty to aggravated arson, carried out on behalf of the Russian mercenary Wagner group. Counterterrorism police are investigating a parcel bomb in Birmingham; similar incidents in Poland and Germany could have brought down planes carrying air freight. Mysterious blazes abound: at a Monmouthshire ammunition plant in April and this week at our nuclear submarine shipyard in Barrow.
“There have been other unexplained fires and incidents at other UK defence companies,” says Francis Tusa, the editor of Defence Analysis and one of this country’s leading military pundits. Officials and the companies concerned “clam up” on these topics, he says. But hushing up Russia’s mischief invites yet more mayhem.
Our clapped-out nuclear submarines, and eventually their delayed, wildly over-budget replacements, offer tenuous reassurance against the doomsday scenario of a full-blown nuclear attack. But they evidently do not stop the aggression we face now. We urgently need to boost our resilience to these “sub-threshold” attacks with better defences of our infrastructure, industry and institutions, public and private. We need a new arsenal of crafty, painful countermeasures too.
Some countries are prepared: Finland has six-month stockpiles of food, fuel and medicine, and spaces in bomb shelters for every resident. It responds with firmness to Russian mischief. A Finnish court is the first to enforce an international judgment on confiscating Russian property to compensate Ukraine. Estonia is spending a quarter of its defence budget on ammunition alone. Poland has the biggest and most effective conventional forces in Europe. These countries see an existential threat from Russia and will fight alone if necessary. They may have to.
Ukrainians are paying for our failures. They cannot defend their crumbling front line and battered cities against Russia’s onslaught because American aid comes too little, too late, and festooned with restrictions, preventing them striking at the invaders’ airbases and troop concentrations. But we will pay later.
We had the chance to counter Kremlin imperialism alongside a big, strong, united country. Scared of the risks and costs of providing real military support, we did not take it. Ukraine bought us time to build up our own defences. We wasted that too. Disappointment there is turning to despair — and fury. A defeated, hopeless, traumatised Ukraine will be a gigantic problem for all of Europe. Meanwhile, our safety and freedom rest on a fragile assumption: that the next US administration will care more about our security than we do.

The UK situation is very worrying , agree entirely with the comment that:
“Self-deceit is our biggest weakness. We hollowed out our armed forces, disguising the damage with secrecy and boosterism”

Have to say though that the SE Uk/London has rarely if ever a dedicated “missile shield” so even one Type 45 on station would be an improvement on what went before….

Thank you for the good wishes.

Hey @DucklingSwimmingInstructress glad to have you back 🦆🦆🦆. Do take it easy. I can do a Kyiv Ind Telegram round up any time if you need a break.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-3-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Incumbent Moldova President Maia Sandu has claimed victory in the Moldovan presidential runoff election held on November 3, 2024.
• Moldovan authorities reported extensive Russian interference and sabotage efforts during the runoff presidential elections held on November 3, 2024, in a likely effort to favor pro-Kremlin Stoianoglo.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense's (MoD) efforts to centralize control over informal Russian drone operation units may degrade the effectiveness of Russian drone capabilities.
• Ukrainian Human Rights Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets refuted a Russian information operation about prisoner of war (POW) exchanges aimed at destabilizing Ukrainian society and undermining Ukrainians' trust in their government.
• Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Vuhledar in Donetsk Oblast.
• A Ukrainian official reported that Russian naval infantry units cannot be considered “elite” due to a lack of specialized training for new recruits and because Ukrainian forces have destroyed the main core of the Russian professional army since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion.

Welcome back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress hope you're doing ok

Welcome back @DucklingSwimmingInstructress 💐

Lovely to see you, @DucklingSwimmingInstructress .

Magnesium incendiaries in packages sent via ordinary courier companies.

Mystery fires were Russian 'test runs' to target cargo flights to US
www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07912lxx33o

Given how the press usually like to speculate when it suits then and certainly jump all over “shock, horror” stories It’s interesting how long it’s taken the most of the MSM certainly in the UK, to really take much of an interest in this.

Alarms bells were ringing in the air cargo industry a few weeks back and even then the finger was being pointed at Russian involvement.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/17/russia-wants-to-create-havoc-if-it-is-behind-dhl-fires-says-air-freight-expert

https://news.sky.com/story/counter-terror-police-investigate-whether-russia-was-involved-in-suspicious-package-fire-at-dhl-warehouse-in-birmingham-13234921

Astute point.

I'm in favour of not out-running your facts, so for me it seems normal to wait for confirmation (or good-as-you're-likely-to-get confirmation).

But as you so rightly say, much of the media has no such scruples. So how come the muted reaction?

As a further example of how long this has been doing the rounds this was published 1st September..

https://cargoforwarder.eu/2024/09/01/sabotage-threatens-freight-industry/

The finger gets pointed at Russia/Putin in the opening para, then a bit further in goes on to state:

“Alerted by increasing security incidents threatening the air freight and logistics industry, the German Office for the Protection of the Constitution sent a notice to transportation companies last Wednesday (28AUG24). In its letter it warns that further parcels with “unconventional incendiary devices” have been or will be dispatched. Sensitizing employees and precautionary measures are highly recommended steps in the advice. As things stand, it can be assumed that the “unconventional incendiary devices were sent deliberately to damage freight service companies and other logistics infrastructure in western countries,” remind the Constitution Protectors, stressing the urgency in their warning message.”

I wonder if there are some in power who don’t really want to really make clear to the general population just what a threat Russia is….Uk side at least it is sadly a bit reminiscent of the drip drip drip of info in the days after the Salisbury poisonings.

@notimagain It is a huge risk. I was quite disturbed when the news broke and wondering whether the risk will extend to commercial passenger flights as well. Is this happening on cargo flights because it is less likely that the air freight will be scanned or detected by sniffer dogs? Can these incendiary devices even be reliably detected? Some of the items must be very large.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️ Artillery supplies from partners for Ukraine have increased, Zelensky says. (kyivindependent.com/artillery-supplies-from-partners-for-ukraine-have-increased-zelensky-says/)
Ukraine has begun receiving increasingly more military assistance from international partners, namely in terms of artillery, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 4.

Overstretched Ukrainian forces struggle to contain Russian advance as US elections loom (kyivindependent.com/overstretched-ukrainian-forces-struggle-to-contain-russian-advance-as-us-elections-loom/)
As American voters head to the polls in presidential elections set to decisively steer the trajectory of Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine, the situation on the battlefield is beginning to unravel for Kyiv.
After two years of brutal attritional warfare across southern and eastern Ukraine, dynamism has returned to the front line.

⚡️ Ukraine open to Qatar mediating energy security (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-russia-qatar-energy-security/)with Russia but denies direct talks.

⚡️Canada sends (kyivindependent.com/canada-sends-nasams-system-to-ukraine/) first NASAMS system to Ukraine, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Zelensky on Nov. 4.

⚡️Number of North Korean troops in Kursk Oblast increases (kyivindependent.com/number-of-north-korean-troops-in-kursk-oblast-increases-to-11-000-zelensky-says/) to 11,000, Zelensky says.

⚡️ Russia possibly behind plot to smuggle flammable parcels onto cargo planes, media reports (kyivindependent.com/russia-possibly-behind-plot-to-smuggle-flammable-parcels-onto-planes-wp/).
Russia may be behind the dispatches of flammable packages via cargo planes in Europe in preparations for similar operations in North America, the Washington Post and the Wall Street Journal separately reported on Nov. 4, citing undisclosed Western security officials.

Russia will launch two Iranian satellites, Kowsar and Hodhod, into orbit on Nov. 5 using a Soyuz launcher, Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali said on Nov. 4.
https://kyivindependent.com/russia-to-launch-2-iranian-satellites-on-nov-5-irans-ambassador-says/

⚡️Thousands in Tbilisi rally (kyivindependent.com/thousands-in-tbilisi-rally-again-in-protest-of-recent-parliamentary-elections/) again in protest of recent parliamentary elections.

⚡️ Georgian court annuls (kyivindependent.com/georgian-court-annuls-election-results-at-30-polling-stations/) election results at 30 precincts over secrecy violations.

⚡️ Russia doesn't recognize (kyivindependent.com/russia-wont-recognize-moldovan-president-sandus-re-election/) Moldovan President Sandu's re-election, Kremlin says.

The Kyiv International Economic Forum (KIEF) — one of the largest international forums in Eastern Europe — will take place on Nov. 7, with the Kyiv Independent as a media partner. https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official/38942

⚡️Ukraine, Lithuania to produce (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-lithuania-to-produce-drones-electronic-warfare-under-new-memorandum/) drones, electronic warfare under new memorandum.

⚡️Ukraine to receive (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-to-receive-600-million-from-world-bank-under-rise-initiative/) $600 million from World Bank under RISE Initiative.

⚡️Germany to provide (kyivindependent.com/germany-announces-218-million-in-humanitarian-winter-aid-for-ukraine/) $217 million in humanitarian winter aid for Ukraine.

The European Union’s anti-fraud agency opened an investigation into the possible exporting of rebranded Russian oil via Turkey into the EU, Politico reported on Nov. 5, citing two undisclosed sources. https://kyivindependent.com/eu-investigates-rebranding-of-russian-oil/

⚡️ Estonia wants to bar Russian, Belarusian citizens from voting in local elections (https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-wants-to-bar-russian-belarusian-citizens-from-voting-in-local-elections/).

⚡️ 63% of Ukrainians ready to endure the war as long as necessary (kyivindependent.com/63-percent-of-ukrainians-ready-to-endure-the-war-as-long-as-necessary-survey-shows/), survey shows.

⚡️Russia's first peace offer in 2022 was all but Ukraine's surrender (kyivindependent.com/first-purported-draft-of-ukraine-russia-peace-treaty-from-2022/), leaked documents show.

⚡️Russia grants (kyivindependent.com/russia-reportedly-grants-citizenship-to-over-3-300-foreign-mercenaries-under-putins-decree/) citizenship to over 3,300 foreigners under Putin's military decree.

⚡️ Russian attacks injure at least 28 (kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-nov-4/) over past day across Ukraine.
⚡️ Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia kills 6, injures 23. (kyivindependent.com/russian-attack-on-zaporizhzhia/)

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ - NOV 5, 2024
■ Record engagements but casualties below 7-day average
■ Significant APV & tank losses reported
■ Janovsky: 61 🇷🇺 26 🇺🇦 added (2.3:1); 30-day ratio at 2.7x ⬆
■ Unusually few strikes on both sides reported (incl. 1 🇺🇦 strike)

The authorities are rightly keeping precise details of what exactly was in the relevant consignments under wrap and TBH I don’t know what the shippers get up to with the scanning of cargo for cargo only flights, I can only guess they must do checking of some sort..

What I do know is that the rules for cargo carriage on passenger aircraft are much more restrictive than the rules for cargo only flights…

I’m now very much into speculation but I’d say if you wanted to get something onto a flight with the potential to really burn or go bang you’d possibly stand more chance on a cargo flight, because you could probably more easily hide it within or disguise it as, say, tins of paint or a big package of Li-ion batteries….the sort of material that can’t be carried in the belly hold of passenger flights.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Ukrainian intelligence sources reported the first combat engagement between Ukrainian forces and North Korean troops in Russia’s Kursk region, according to the Financial Times.

The European Union and South Korea have agreed to cooperate on defense initiatives, as reported by Deutsche Welle. The agreement was reached during a meeting between EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell and South Korea’s Foreign Minister Cho The Joleck.

Due to the harsh winter and ongoing attacks on nuclear power plants, Ukraine could experience power outages lasting up to 20 hours a day, Politico reports, citing energy experts.
According to Hennadiy Ryabtsev, the lead researcher at Ukraine's National Institute of Strategic Studies, the most realistic scenario would involve restricting electricity supply for 8-14 hours daily.

Ksenia Yudaeva, a Russian financier currently under U.S. sanctions, will represent Russia and Syria at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Reuters reports.

Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski indicated in an interview with TVN24 that the issue of intercepting missiles over Ukraine may be addressed next week during a NATO ministerial meeting.
Sikorski acknowledged that this Ukrainian request could lead to differing opinions among allies.
"This is a matter for arrangements and discussions among our allies. We have a new NATO Secretary General, and the next NATO meeting will take place next week. Perhaps this issue will be on the agenda," Sikorski added.

The U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, Bridget Brink, announced that Cardell Richardson, Chief Inspector for Transparency and Accountability of Aid from the U.S. State Department, has arrived in Kyiv.

Ukraine has received a batch of vehicles and mine detectors from Lithuania as part of the demining coalition.
Lithuania purchased a total of 230 vehicles and 240 mine detectors, which are designed to locate anti-tank and anti-personnel mines with metal casings. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, Lithuania has provided military aid worth €705 million over the two and a half years of the war and has committed to offering Ukraine annual assistance amounting to 0.25% of its GDP.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has urged Georgia to take "concrete actions" to affirm its commitment to the EU, noting a lack of interest from Georgian authorities.

🤦Patriarch Kirill of Russia recently stated that the death penalty is permissible, claiming that Jesus Christ did not oppose it, and that the Bible allows for taking a life in certain circumstances. In response to a question on the potential need for the death penalty in Russia, he remarked, "The death penalty has existed throughout human history," adding that while Jesus himself was executed, he did not explicitly condemn the death penalty