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Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

1000 replies

MagicFox · 15/08/2024 20:29

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

OP posts:
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289
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 10/09/2024 16:24

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 10/09/2024 16:19

The United States and its partners are ready to take serious sanctions against Iran in connection with the provision of assistance to Russia and the transfer of ballistic missiles by Tehran to Moscow, said Vedant Patel, deputy head of the press service of the State Department.

I sincerely hope they are also going to take the cuffs off when it comes to Ukraine using long range western weapons on russian military targets.
How come russia gets to escalate with no painful consequences?

It seems like they might be. Meeting in Kyiv Friday to discuss this.

DesdamonasHandkerchief · 10/09/2024 16:32

Hopefully the latest Iranian deliveries will be the push Biden needs to finally sign off on this.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 10/09/2024 16:37

After the announcement that President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer will meet on Friday and discuss the possibility of deep strikes on russian targets comes the announcement that Blinken and the head of the British Foreign Ministry, David Lammy, will visit Kyiv tomorrow.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/09/2024 18:55

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 10/09/2024 16:37

After the announcement that President Biden and Prime Minister Starmer will meet on Friday and discuss the possibility of deep strikes on russian targets comes the announcement that Blinken and the head of the British Foreign Ministry, David Lammy, will visit Kyiv tomorrow.

This sounds promising right?

MissConductUS · 10/09/2024 18:58

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/09/2024 18:55

This sounds promising right?

It does, but it won't mean much unless the US also starts supplying Ukraine with the JASSM.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/09/2024 19:19

Thanks @MissConductUS i guess if the US agree then providing the missiles is a given then? I get the feeling this could be the most significant game changer to date though, less of a pink line and more of a red line for Russia...but what's the alternative?

MissConductUS · 10/09/2024 19:35

I've no idea how reliable this is, but it's being reported that Blinken will announce US permission for deep strikes in Russia with ATACMS.

Home Page War in Ukraine Antony Blinken travels to Kiev to announce that the U.S. is finally allowing Ukraine to launch long-range ATACMS missile strikes on Russian territory ua-stena.info Blinken to announce permission for Ukraine to strike deep into Russia in Kyiv

The max range for ATACMS is shorter than that for the JASSM, and the numbers are more limited. We have lots of JASSMs in inventory.

Not to nerd out on you too badly, but ATACMS is a ballistic missile, so it flies faster, but JASSM is jet powered and has stealth characteristics, so it's slower but harder to detect and target and has longer range.

If I had to pick one, I'd pick the JASSM.

Antony Blinken travels to Kiev to announce that the U.S. is finally allowing Ukraine to launch long-range ATACMS missile strikes on Russian territory β€’

Blinken travels to Kiev to announce that the U.S. is finally allowing Ukraine to launch long-range ATACMS missile strikes on Russian

https://ua-stena.info/en/blinken-to-announce-permission-for-ukraine-to-strike-deep-into-russia-in-kyiv/

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/09/2024 19:53

Is it possible that the ATACMS will enable the deep strikes Ukraine desperately want but are a less bold political option given their shorter range and being more easy to track? Also a smaller stockpile puts a limit on how many are given? Or am I reading too much into it? At a quick glance, there was also a question whether the JASSM can be carried by Ukraine jets so maybe it would mean too long a wait for this problem to be solved? I'm desperate for Ukraine to have their hands untied to see if this can tip the balance as opposed to fighting a long war of attrition.

notimagain · 10/09/2024 20:31

there was also a question whether the JASSM can be carried by Ukraine jets

As I understand it JASSM is not easily compatible with the Soviet era aircraft in the Ukraine inventory but it is meant to be compatible with the F-16…whether that means all F-16s or the F-16s in the modification state as delivered recently to the UAF don’t know.

Hillsmakeyoustrong · 10/09/2024 20:35

I guess we will know more at the end of the week 🀞 thanks @notimagain and @MissConductUS

MissConductUS · 10/09/2024 20:56

notimagain · 10/09/2024 20:31

there was also a question whether the JASSM can be carried by Ukraine jets

As I understand it JASSM is not easily compatible with the Soviet era aircraft in the Ukraine inventory but it is meant to be compatible with the F-16…whether that means all F-16s or the F-16s in the modification state as delivered recently to the UAF don’t know.

Trying to fire it from a Soviet era aircraft would be a complete McGyver situation. Maybe the Ukrainians could rig something up, but it would not be easy or fully capable.

The JASSM has been in service since 2003 and is widely exported to allied nations, so I expect any F16s that are currently airworthy can carry and fire it.

notimagain · 10/09/2024 21:03

@MissConductUS

The JASSM has been in service since 2003 and is widely exported to allied nations, so I expect any F16s that are currently airworthy can carry and fire it.

Some of the aircraft that have been promised are pretty elderly, a lot will depend on what exactly where they stand with regard to mid-life and other upgrade packages..TBH It’s as clear as mud from some reports ( so hopefully the Russians are as confused as I am).

One example:

β€œUkrainian F-16s, which are of the F-16 AM/BM standard and have undergone the Mid-Life Update (MLU) program, will be capable of carrying up to two JASSMs per aircraft.
Although these jets are not yet equipped with JASSM technology, they may be able to adopt the necessary software or hardware updates to use these missiles.”

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-nears-decision-to-supply-ukraine-with-long/

MissConductUS · 10/09/2024 21:14

That certainly muddles the picture a bit. The mark and software level of JASSMs being offered are also factors to consider.

A lot of the benefit of supplying them is to put the Russians in reactive mode and on the back foot. They've reportedly moved most aircraft out of ATACMS range, but there are plenty of military targets in range of both JASSM and ATACMS that aren't easily moved or hardened. I'm sure the Russians are just as confused as we are.

Long range fires have been game changers in this war, going back to HIMARS.

blueshoes · 11/09/2024 01:10

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-9-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on September 9, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to advance the creation of its envisioned β€œEurasian security architecture.”
  • Kremlin officials are likely trying to shape international peace mediation efforts in the war in Ukraine while demonstrating Russia's unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Ukraine.
  • The Kremlin leveraged Russian regional elections from September 6 to 8 to integrate trusted Russian military veterans of the war in Ukraine into the Russian government, likely as part of an ongoing attempt to appease Russian servicemembers, boost domestic support for the war, and build out a cadre of Kremlin-affiliated local officials.
  • The Kremlin refrained from replacing Acting Kursk Oblast Governor Alexei Smirnov during the Russian regional elections, likely in support of an ongoing effort to downplay the societal impacts of Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast.
  • Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are increasingly using chemical weapons in Ukraine.
  • Russian forces recently regained lost positions in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on September 9.
  • Russian forces recently advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove line, near Siversk, near Pokrovsk, and southwest of Donetsk City, and Ukrainian forces recently regained positions near Siversk.
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin expanded Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s powers on September 9 by allowing him to grant eligible parties within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) access to Russian state secrets (classified information).
Igotjelly · 11/09/2024 07:38

Well it might not have been perfect but I’m a much happier camper after last night than after Biden/Trump’s debate.

blueshoes · 11/09/2024 10:23

Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
MagicFox · 11/09/2024 10:28

I'm going to watch the debate now...

OP posts:
blueshoes · 11/09/2024 10:42

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-10-2024

Key Takeaways:

  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed on September 10 that Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to Russia amid growing international condemnation of Tehran's support for Russia's war in Ukraine.
  • Russia and the People's Republic of China (PRC) continue to pursue various avenues of military-technical cooperation.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted a large series of drone strikes in Russia on the night of September 9 to 10.
  • US President Joe Biden stated on September 10 that the presidential administration is working on lifting restrictions on Ukraine's ability to use US-provided weapons to strike military objects within Russia.
  • The Kremlin is reportedly allocating roughly 59 billion rubles (about $648 million) to strengthen its technical ability to restrict internet traffic on its sovereign internet.
  • Ukrainian forces recently advanced in Kursk Oblast amid continued Ukrainian offensive operations in the area on September 10.
  • Russian forces recently advanced near Kreminna, Siversk, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Donetsk City.
  • The German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a report on September 9 warning that Russia has significantly increased its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles may not significantly impact future Russian DIB production.
Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
L1ttledrummergirl · 11/09/2024 12:08

I've just read the first part of the transcript of last night's debate. I don't think I will ever understand how Trump ever got the presidency the first time around, let alone is close enough to try this time. The man is a joke who is clearly unstable and incompetent.

I really hope the sensible Americans do themselves a favour and Kamala wins by a landslide. Anything less and he will try to split the country.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/09/2024 12:27

The German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a report on September 9 warning that Russia has significantly increased its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles may not significantly impact future Russian DIB production.

Worrying.

DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/09/2024 12:42

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚑️ Russia claims to counterattack https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-pushing-back-against-ukraine-in-kursk-oblast/ against Ukraine in Kursk Oblast.

⚑️China supplies https://kyivindependent.com/china-russia-military-tech/ Russia's war machine, receives military tech in exchange, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell told journalists on Sept. 10.

⚑️ Blinken, Lammy visit Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/blinken-lammy-visit-ukraine-as-kyiv-awaits-decision-on-long-range-strikes/ as Kyiv awaits decision on long-range strikes.

⚑️Biden 'not ruling out' https://kyivindependent.com/biden-not-ruling-out-letting-ukraine-strike-deep-inside-russia-blinken-tells-sky-news/ letting Ukraine strike deep inside Russia, Blinken tells Sky News.

⚑️ West wants Ukraine to set realistic war goals https://kyivindependent.com/west-wants-ukraine-to-set-realistic-war-goals-for-next-year-wsj-reports/ for next year, WSJ reports.
While publicly backing Kyiv's plan to retake all of its territories, Western officials also want Ukraine to set more realistic goals for the next year, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Sept. 11.

⚑️UK, France, Germany to further sanction https://kyivindependent.com/uk-germany-france-issue-joint-statement/ Iran after ballistic missile deliveries to Russia confirmed.
According to the joint statement, they will now "be taking immediate steps to cancel bilateral air services agreements with Iran," and work towards sanctioning Iran Air, the country's flag carrier.

⚑️Ukraine, IMF reach preliminary deal to give Kyiv access to around $1.1 billion. https://kyivindependent.com/imf/

⚑️Harris, Trump face off https://kyivindependent.com/harris-trump-face-off-for-the-first-time-in-second-presidential-debate/ for the first time in second presidential debate.

⚑️Ukraine approves https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-approves-homemade-black-widow-bomber-drone-for-military-use/ domestic-made Black Widow bomber drone for military use.
Made in a single-use format, the drone can carry a heavy explosive charge. The relatively low price of the Black Widow allows it to be used as a first-person-view (FPV) attack drone, the ministry said.

Sweden takes step toward supplying Ukraine with Gripen fighter jets
Weeks after Ukraine received its first batch of U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets from European allies and more than a year after President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the start of test trials on Sweden’s prestigious Gripen multipurpose variants, Stockholm signaled that their possible transfer to Ukraine remains on the table. https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-takes-step-toward-transferring-gripen-fighter-jets-but-ukraine-still-eyes-more-f-16s/

⚑️Estonia launches https://kyivindependent.com/estonia-launches-new-program-for-ukrainian-refugees/ new program for Ukrainian refugees.
Estonia launched the "ROSE Estonia" project to help Ukrainian refugees in the country with their goals in self-employment and entrepreneurship.

⚑️Russia investigating https://kyivindependent.com/russia-investigates-freight-train-derailment-in-belgorod-region/ freight train derailment in Belgorod Oblast as 'terrorist attack.'

https://kyivindependent.com/opinion-state-predation-threatens-to-derail-ukraines-war-effort/

⚑️Public broadcaster backs off https://kyivindependent.com/public-broadcaster-backs-off-airing-russians-at-war-amid-toronto-festival-protests/ airing 'Russians at War' amid Toronto festival protests.

The controversy surrounding Canadian-Russian filmmaker Anastasia Trofimova's "Russians at War" documentary has intensified following revelations that Canada, despite being a staunch supporter of Ukraine in its fight against Russia, awarded public funds to a film that is accused of whitewashing Russian war crimes. https://kyivindependent.com/outrage-erupts-over-canadian-tax-dollars-funding-russians-at-war-documentary/

⚑️Jewish pilgrims warned against https://kyivindependent.com/warned-against-travel-to-uman-for-rosh-hashanah/ travel to Uman for Rosh Hashanah.

⚑️ Russian attacks against Ukraine kill 1, injure 18 https://kyivindependent.com/attacks-90/ over past day.
⚑️ Russian attacks against Kostiantynivka https://kyivindependent.com/russian-attacks-against-kostiantynivka-in-donetsk-oblast-kill-3-injure-5/ in Donetsk Oblast kill 3, injure 5.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦- SEP 11, 2024
β–  Fewer engagements & less casualties
β–  Equipment losses however stay well above 7-day average; big artillery losses
β–  Increase in πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ strikes, improved strike ratio

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
DucklingSwimmingInstructress · 11/09/2024 12:48

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡Ώ The head of the Senate of the Czech Republic, MiloΕ‘ Vystrčil, also arrived in Kyiv to participate in the Crimean Platform.
He emphasized that the events following the occupation of Crimea show that the Russian Federation will not stop if support for Ukraine is insufficient.

Ukraine is being forced to consider a β€œPlan B” in its war with Russia and strategize for next year, according to The Wall Street Journal. American and European officials told reporters that the West continues to support President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who insists on driving Russia out of Ukraine. However, public support for Kyiv’s allies is fading, and Russian forces are advancing in some areas. There are reported differences between Ukraine and the West. High-ranking European officials say a total victory for Kyiv would require hundreds of billions of dollars in support, which is β€œvirtually impossible.” Talks in Kyiv with London and Washington officials could strengthen Ukraine’s military capacity.
The West views the upcoming US elections as critically important, as they will shape future aid to Ukraine. However, many doubt that the current level of support can continue for many years.

Russia's National Settlement Depository (NSD) has lost a court case challenging the European Union's sanctions imposed due to its alleged role in financing Russia's invasion of Ukraine, according to Bloomberg.
Currently, the depository has approximately 70 billion euros ($77.3 billion) tied up in the Belgian clearinghouse Euroclear, according to sources familiar with the situation.
While these assets are not presently being utilized to generate windfall profits listed as financial aid to Ukraine, the court's ruling could potentially lead to their use and additional revenue in the future, similar to the actions taken by the EU with the assets of the Russian central bank, added the agency's interlocutor.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Crimea should be returned to Ukraine in accordance with international law. He made this remark in a video address to the Crimean Platform, as reported by the Turkish state agency Anadolu.

Russia’s state-owned Gazprom could lose approximately $6.5 billion annually if it halts gas transit through Ukraine, according to a report by Bloomberg.
The potential loss serves as a compelling incentive for Moscow to consider renewing its current gas transit agreement, which expires in December 2024. Vladimir Putin recently indicated that Russia might be open to extending the transit deal, signaling some willingness to continue gas flows through Ukraine.
At the same time, Ukraine is exploring alternative energy sources and has entered talks with Azerbaijan. However, according to Ukrainian Energy Minister Herman Galushchenko, no concrete offers from Azerbaijani gas traders have been made yet. Despite these discussions, Galushchenko emphasized that Ukraine does not plan to allow the continued transit of Russian gas to Europe beyond the end of 2024.

Ukraine is considering cutting diplomatic ties with Iran due to its supply of ballistic missiles to Russia, according to Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi.

Romania is considering a legal amendment to allow the military to shoot down unauthorized drones entering its airspace, according to Romanian media reports. This development comes after two Russian Shahed drones trespassed into Romanian airspace on the night of Sunday, September 8.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with renowned historian and UNITED24 ambassador Timothy Snyder in Kyiv.

FPV drone of Ukrainian armored forces with RPG-18 "Mukha".

Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
Ukraine Invasion: Part 51
MagicFox · 11/09/2024 14:42

I thought Kamala did really well in the debate - I'm surprised we didn't see this kind of performance more often as VP. The closing speeches were representative. She focused on policy and the future and Trump didn't mention policy ones, just rehashed all the old accusations against the Democrats (some of which she'd rebuffed during the debate several times)

OP posts:
Igotjelly · 11/09/2024 14:45

MagicFox · 11/09/2024 14:42

I thought Kamala did really well in the debate - I'm surprised we didn't see this kind of performance more often as VP. The closing speeches were representative. She focused on policy and the future and Trump didn't mention policy ones, just rehashed all the old accusations against the Democrats (some of which she'd rebuffed during the debate several times)

I thought that the work she's done to improve her public speaking/debating was really clear to see. She's like a different orator to when she ran to be the Dem nominee before.

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