Ukraine Invasion: Part 51

[MagicFox]

Welcome to 51. Thanks as usual to all and Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

Agreed thread guidance:

A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

B. If you post a link please tell us where it leads/give a precis of the content

C. Discussion and debate is welcome, but please keep it respectful

Not good news from the German elections.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

Putin arrives in Mongolia, a country that is required to arrest him under an ICC warrant. However, he left the airport without any problem

Mongolian police stopped protesters from displaying the Ukrainian flag during Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s visit to the capital, Ulaanbaatar.

The number of killed from the shelling in Poltava has risen to 47, with 206 people wounded. First Lady Olena Zelenska announced this.

🇳🇱 President Zelenskyy: Ukrainian Intelligence Provided the Netherlands with Information on EU and US Components Found in Russian Missiles
After meeting with Dutch Prime Minister Schoof, President Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian intelligence had informed the Netherlands about components produced in the EU and the USA that are still being found in Russian missiles despite sanctions.

Russian Attack on Kharkiv Injures at Least 13 People
A photo shows the aftermath of the shelling at one of Kharkiv’s universities.

Ministry of Defense Commissions First Underground Hospital for Armed Forces
The newly constructed hospital consists of six steel bunkers, each equipped with ventilation systems, water supply, and alternative power sources, according to the Ministry.

48N6DM Anti-Aircraft Missile Launched Over Kyiv Shot Down by Air Defense – Defense Express
The missile, launched from an S-400 system the night before, was intercepted by anti-aircraft defense. The missile was used in a “surface-to-surface” mode, known for its extremely low accuracy, posing a significant danger to civilians.

🚊 Russians Shell Ukrzaliznytsia Infrastructure and Rolling Stock in Sumy and Dnipro Regions
During the night, Russian forces targeted the infrastructure and rolling stock of “Ukrzaliznytsia” in the Sumy and Dnipro regions. Fortunately, there were no casualties.

‼️ 21-Year-Old Paramedic Injured in Kharkiv Shelling Dies in Hospital

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Russia bought almost 300 kilograms of dollars from Rwanda
The Russian Federation bought 29 million 210 thousand dollars in cash from the Ministry of Defence of Rwanda in January, writes ‘Verstka’ concerning the closed data of the Russian customs statistics.
They were delivered in $100 banknotes - the total weight was 292.1 kilograms.
Earlier the currency was imported to Russia from Turkey and the UAE - this was done by the company ‘Aero-trade’, which manages Duty-free shops in the airports of five Russian cities. After the US threatened secondary sanctions, the company organized the last two shipments of banknotes.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces shot down 85% of missiles and drones in August
Ballistic missiles are the most difficult for Ukraine to shoot down, with 9 out of 54 being shot down.
Drones have the highest percentage of shootdowns (but that doesn't mean they are easy to shoot down!).
In August, we withstood the largest air attack on Ukraine.

🇭🇺🇺🇦 In Budapest, 400 Ukrainian children started studying at the first state Ukrainian-Hungarian bilingual school in Hungary. Hungarian will be taught as a foreign language

The evacuation from Pokrovsk continues
Every day hundreds of people leave their hometown. Russian troops are 9 kilometers away.
Tears. Despair. Fear.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

With western arms packages slow to arrive and Russian military production at record level, Russia seizes 1100 square kilometers of Eastern Ukraine in the month of August.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38368

Video footage shows the growing use of drone on drone warfare at the front.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38350

Can Russia's close relationship with Hamas help Israel return hostages?
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38331

Russia's atrocities in Africa are only getting worse as massacres, rape and torture follow Wagner mercenaries wherever they go.
Nigerian journalist Philip Obaji interviewed.

Ukraine's first underground military hospital is now operational, capable of treating over 100 wounded soldiers.
It features surgical and intensive care units and is equipped to NATO standards, according to the Ministry of Defense.

I've been meaning to post this all day.

In yesterday's Ukraine: The Latest podcast, Roland mentioned a fine piece of front line reporting from the WSJ about the situation in Pokrovsk.

The Last Days of Pokrovsk: Ukrainians Dig Trenches and Say Goodbye to Their City as Russians Close In - Mining town on the eastern front prepares for impending destruction by Moscow’s troops, now just miles away

The only bright spot is the horrendous casualties and equipment losses for the Russians.

I was quite taken aback with Roland’s suggestion that losing Pokrovsk could signal a wider Ukrainian collapse and was really quite serious. Not sure why but I hadn’t appreciated its importance before.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-2-2024

Key Takeaways:

• Iran is expected to “imminently” deliver ballistic missiles to Russia to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin gave an interview to Mongolian outlet Unuudur ahead of his visit to Mongolia on September 2-3, emphasizing historical and modern Russian-Mongolian relations and current trilateral economic and energy initiatives with Mongolia and the People's Republic of China (PRC).
• Russian and Mongolian officials indicated that the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant for Putin's arrest will not impact Putin's ongoing visit to Mongolia, despite Mongolia's legal obligation to enforce this warrant.
• Russian authorities detained Leningrad Military District (LMD) Deputy Commander Major General Valery Mumindzhanov on corruption charges on September 2.
• Russian forces recently regained lost positions east of Korenevo amid continued Ukrainian assaults in Kursk Oblast on September 2.
• Russian forces recently advanced in the Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Pokrovsk directions and southwest of Donetsk City.
• Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officials are highlighting Russian military training capabilities, likely in an attempt to promote military recruitment and as part of long-term efforts to rebuild the Russian officer corps.
• Russian occupation officials announced the start of the school year in occupied Ukraine, highlighting Russia's various efforts to coopt the educational system and forcibly Russify and militarize Ukrainian children and youth.

I think that's really the worst-case scenario. Generally speaking, shortening your defensive lines improves the situation for the defender. But I'm not closely following the balance of forces in the east, so take that with a grain of salt.

Kuleba has resigned in anticipation of (another!) upcoming reshuffle. Anyone know if its like the UK whereby ministers resign their posts and can then be reappointed/put into a different role? If not it speaks to a fair bit of discontent within the administration.

Oh and apparently Russia has updated its nuclear doctrine..... but of course it's secret 🙄cough cough "nukes, nukes, big scary ones look over here"

Of course what it does mean is that they don't need to face the fact that they'll let folk trample all over their pretty pink lines and look like idiots when they don't immediately nuke us all.

Re the Russian losses trying to take Pokrovsk, there's some indication that they've been so bad that the Russians may be culminating soon.

As The Russians March On Pokrovsk, the Ukrainians Damage Or Destroy Nearly 200 Vehicles In One Day - It’s a record loss for Russia.

Here's an excerpt:

That’s why some Ukrainian observers are optimistic about Pokrovsk, despite the recent Russian advances toward the city. “It can be assumed that the enemy will reach the city by mid-September, but they will not be able to capture it,” the Ukrainian Center for Defense Strategies predicted.

And after a bloody 11 months, that failure could finally signal the end of the Russian offensive that began last fall outside Avdiivka. “The battle for Pokrovsk may become the culmination of the Russian offensive this year, after which the front line will begin to stabilize,” Conflict Intelligence Team noted.

But these optimistic predictions hinge on one risky assumption: that the Russians can’t immediately replace their losses.

The reporter for the piece, David Axe, also writes for the Telegraph and I like his work.

I'm sure some of you will have spotted it, but this thread is going on this morning with some disgusting views being aired. Also some very ignorant views.
In case anyone has time to engage (I've started but I'm not a great follower-upper).

Refugees "visiting home" | Mumsnet

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️BREAKING: FM Kuleba submits letter of resignation kyivindependent.com/breaking-fm-kuleba-submits-letter-of-resignation/
Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba submitted his letter of resignation, speaker of Ukraine's parliament Ruslan Stefanchuk reported on Sept. 4. [oh boy]

⚡️Mongolia fails to arrest Putin due to 'energy dependence, neutrality,' Politico reports. https://kyivindependent.com/mongolia-fails-to-arrest-putin-due-to-energy-dependence-neutrality-politico-reports/

Irish PM arrives in Kyiv for talks with Zelensky https://kyivindependent.com/irish-pm-arrives-in-kyiv/

⚡️Ukraine plans to 'indefinitely' hold Kursk Oblast's seized territories as it tries to force Putin to the negotiating table, Zelensky says https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-plans-to-indefinitely-hold-kursk-oblasts-seized-territories-zelesnky-says/

Two U.S. researchers claim to have pinpointed the likely deployment site in Russia for the 9M730 Burevestnik, a nuclear-powered cruise missile that Putin has hailed as "invincible." https://kyivindependent.com/us-researchers-identify-likely-launch-site-for-russias-new-nuclear-powered-missile-reuters-reports/

⚡️Belarus to host https://kyivindependent.com/belarus-to-host-migration-conference-in-november-2024-with-participation-of-some-eu-ministers/ ‘migration conference’ in November 2024 with participation of some EU ministers.

⚡️The International Monetary Fund (IMF) will send its first mission to Russia since the beginning of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the IMF's Russian Executive Director Aleksei Mozhin claimed in a comment for Reuters on Sept. 3. https://kyivindependent.com/imf-to-send-its-first-delegation-to-russia-since-full-scale-invasion/

⚡️ Kuleba resignation, reshuffle 'expected long ago ahead of difficult times' for Ukraine, lawmaker says. https://kyivindependent.com/kuleba-resignation-reshuffle-expected-mp-says/
The reshuffle comes amid an uptick in Russian missile strikes on cities across Ukraine in recent weeks, and a worsening energy crisis.

Dismissal of Ukraine energy grid chief prompts resignations, international concern amid Russian energy strikes https://kyivindependent.com/ukrenergo-board-members-sound-the-alarm-over-political-motivations-for-grid-operator-chiefs-dismissal-amid-russian-energy-strikes/
The controversial decision to dismiss the head of Ukraine’s state-owned energy grid operator has prompted resignations from two independent members of the company’s supervisory board and raised concerns from partners abroad.

Strategic Industries Minister Alexander Kamyshin, Justice Minister Denys Maliuska and Ecology Minister Ruslan Strilets submitted their resignation to the Ukrainian parliament, Chairman Ruslan Stefanchuk reported on Sept 3. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-strategic-industries-justice-and-ecology-ministers-resign-parliament-speaker-says/ Vitalii Koval, head of the State Property Fund of Ukraine (SPFU), also submitted his resignation, according to Stefanchuk.

⚡️Deputy PM in charge of Ukraine's EU accession submits resignation. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-strategic-industries-justice-and-ecology-ministers-resign-parliament-speaker-says/

President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Deputy Head of Ukraine's Presidential Office Rostyslav Shurma on Sept. 3. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-dismisses-top/ [what on earth is going on?]

⚡️ Update: 4 educational institutions damaged in Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih. https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-lviv/

Death toll of Russia's attack on Poltava rises to 53 as rescue operations continue https://kyivindependent.com/death-toll-of-poltava-attack-rises/

⚡️⚡️UPDATE: Russia's attack on Lviv kills 7, injures 64 including children. According to the latest information, this included two children aged 7 and 14.
https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-lviv/

⚡️ Russian attack on Kryvyi Rih injures 5

⚡️Update: Russian attack on Lviv kills mother, three daughters https://kyivindependent.com/russias-attack-on-lviv/

A Russian attack against Lviv on Sept. 4 killed a mother and her three daughters, leaving behind the surviving father of the family, according to Mayor Andrii Sadovyi.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦‬ ‪- SEP 4, 2024
■ 2nd most engagements to date, 8th highest casualties
■ Special equipm., artillery, APV & drone losses above avg
■ 🇺🇦 strikes up, 🇷🇺 ones down; strike ratio improves again Note: Slight correction (+2) to missile total by GSUA

Genuinely sad that Kuleba has resigned.

I do wonder if he‘ll crop back up in another role following the reshuffle.

Me too. I thought he was great in the job, and selfishly, when he came to New York for UN meetings, he'd usually appear on a few of the late night TV talk shows. Here's one of my favorite clips:

If anyone doubts how New Yorkers feel about Ukraine, watch it. He gets a standing ovation at 1:50.

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The German government plans to allocate funds for the purchase of six IRIS-T SLM air defense systems, which will be transferred to Ukraine, according to Reuters.
Additionally, Germany intends to acquire six more IRIS-T SLM units for its own air force.

Despite discussions among Western countries about potentially excluding Russia from the IMF, this has proven challenging due to opposition from other member countries with significant voting power, such as China and India.

UK Signs $392 Million Contract for 120,000 Artillery Shells for Ukraine
The British Ministry of Defense has signed a $392 million contract to supply Ukraine with 120,000 152-mm artillery shells. The contract includes a 1.5-year supply period, with several thousand shells expected to be delivered by the end of 2024.
In total, eight countries will contribute over $1.3 billion to the IFU fund.

Ireland will allocate €128 million to Ukraine for non-lethal military support as part of a bilateral security agreement. Ireland will also provide demining systems and explosives disposal equipment, participate in the Coalition on Demining, and train the Ukrainian military.

Russian Airstrike Targets University in Sumy
❗️On the night of September 3, Russian forces launched an airstrike on a university building in Sumy, according to the Sumy Regional Military Administration.

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, following the Russian ballistic missile attack on Poltava, urged the removal of all restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western weapons

War in Ukraine Will End Only When Russia Is Defeated or Putin Is Gone—Foreign Affairs
Former CIA analyst Peter Schroeder argues in Foreign Affairs that Vladimir Putin will never give up on Ukraine. The war can only end in one of two ways: either Russia loses its ability to continue fighting, or Putin is no longer in power.
As long as Putin remains alive and in power, no amount of sanctions, military losses, or international pressure will deter him. Ukraine must either decisively defeat the Russian army on the battlefield, leaving Putin unable to continue the war, or freeze the conflict and wait for his death. Schroeder suggests that since the war is driven by Putin’s personal ambitions, future Russian leaders may be easier to negotiate with.

Rescuers showed how they retrieved the body of a 9-year-old girl killed by Russians in Lviv https://t.me/United24media/24824

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

The United States is close to an agreement on long-range JASSM missiles for Ukraine, Reuters reports.
These missiles are expected to be included in the arms package this fall, although a final decision has not yet been made.
Military analysts suggest that the transfer of JASSMs, which are stealthy and capable of hitting farther than most missiles in Ukraine's arsenal, could push Russian footholds and supply depots back hundreds of kilometers.

Russian serviceman harshly criticises residents of Kursk and Belgorod, accusing them not only of failing to support the military but also of exploiting them by raising prices on food and housing at every opportunity https://t.me/liveukraine_media/24126

❗️The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrsky decided to conduct an additional special inspection of the Chief of Staff of the Command of the Unmanned Systems Forces Roman Hladkyi. The inspection will be carried out by the SBU authorities. [Hladkyi seems to have an awful lot of contacts with Russia]

21-year-old paramedic Yevhen Yurko died from injuries sustained during a Russian double-tap attack while aiding victims of an earlier missile strike in Kharkiv.
On September 1, Yurko and his team responded to a call following an initial attack, but were caught in a subsequent strike.

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

The Romanian Parliament has given final approval for the transfer of a Patriot system to Ukraine.
Both chambers of Parliament have approved the bill which now awaits signing by President Klaus Iohannis.

Putin regime unveils a new military recruitment drive offering the war weary population a salary that's 10 times the median Russian income.
https://www.kyivpost.com/post/38440

How Authoritarian Regimes, like Putin’s, Fall
Professor Natasha Lindstaedt specializes in authoritarian regimes, democratic backsliding, state failure and human security.

❗️Russians have once again executed Ukrainian prisoners
According to the Prosecutor General's Office, three Ukrainian soldiers who had surrendered with their hands raised were brutally killed with shots to the back.

Fuck you Russia. Fuck you. May you rot.

New Ukrainian Cabinet:

https://x.com/KyivPost/status/1831399129907363845

Anyone watching ‘The Zelensky Story’ on BBC3? Started at 2100.

Intending to watch it on iPlayer.
Is it good?

@heldinadream it’s very good.

Ah thanks, will definitely watch it then.
He is so impressive.